Latest news with #JaneFoley
CNBC
28-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Yen shrugs off tepid bond demand, dollar firms on trade deal hopes
Japan's yen was steady on Wednesday as ructions in the bond market kept the spotlight on the fiscal health of major economies, while the dollar was firm due to upbeat consumer confidence data, opens new tab and hopes for more U.S. trade deals. The yen was broadly flat against the greenback at 144.28, after dropping 1% on Tuesday following a report by Reuters that Japan will consider trimming issuance of super-long bonds after a sharp rise in yields in recent weeks. The focus remained on the Japanese bond market, with demand at an auction of the country's longest-tenor bonds on Wednesday falling to the lowest since July. "Despite the news flow, there does appear to be some certain level of resistance in dollar-yen," Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said, in a sign that the market may not want to see the yen further weaken against the dollar for now. The yen has gained nearly 9% so far in 2025 due to broad dollar weakness and safe-haven flows as investors flee U.S. assets in the wake of the erratic trade policies under President Donald Trump that have roiled markets. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was last 0.1% higher at 99.65 but is down 8% for the year as investors look for alternatives to U.S. assets. The euro was also broadly flat at $1.1331 after dropping 0.5% on Tuesday as a bout of dollar buying swept the markets amid signs of possible trade deals and data showing U.S. consumer confidence in May was much better-than-expected. Still, new orders for U.S.-manufactured capital goods plunged by the most in six months in April as the flip-flopping tariff salvos take a toll on the economy and businesses, data showed on Tuesday. "More positive data surprises are needed to rebuild confidence in U.S. growth, and deficit worries aren't disappearing anytime soon," ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole wrote in a note. "When adding the themes of de-dollarisation and Trump's plans for a weaker dollar in the longer run, we still think the greenback rallies can fade from here." It is going to be a selective dollar weakening, with the euro and the yen likely being the key beneficiaries, said Sam Lynton-Brown, global head of macro strategy at BNP Paribas, during a call presenting the French bank's global economic outlook. The dollar was also supported by Trump's decision to delay higher tariffs on the European Union over the weekend. EU officials have asked the bloc's leading companies and CEOs for details of their U.S. investment plans, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, as Brussels prepares to advance trade talks with Washington. Sterling last bought $1.3488 but stayed close to the three-year high touched on Monday. Investors will watch out for the April Personal Consumption Expenditure report - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday that could help gauge the impact of Trump's trade policies. Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting this month will be released later in the day. The Australian dollar last fetched $0.6438 as data showed consumer inflation held steady in April, leaving hopes for more interest rate cuts mostly intact. The New Zealand dollar firmed 0.33% to $0.5969 after the country's central bank signalled it might be nearer to an end to easing than some in the market had hoped for as it cut rates by 25 bps as expected.
Zawya
28-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Yen shrugs off tepid bond demand, dollar firms on trade deal hopes
Japan's yen was steady on Wednesday as ructions in the bond market kept the spotlight on the fiscal health of major economies, while the dollar was firm due to upbeat consumer confidence data and hopes for more U.S. trade deals. The yen was broadly flat against the greenback at 144.28, after dropping 1% on Tuesday following a report by Reuters that Japan will consider trimming issuance of super-long bonds after a sharp rise in yields in recent weeks. The focus remained on the Japanese bond market, with demand at an auction of the country's longest-tenor bonds on Wednesday falling to the lowest since July. "Despite the news flow, there does appear to be some certain level of resistance in dollar-yen," Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said, in a sign that the market may not want to see the yen further weaken against the dollar for now. The yen has gained nearly 9% so far in 2025 due to broad dollar weakness and safe-haven flows as investors flee U.S. assets in the wake of the erratic trade policies under President Donald Trump that have roiled markets. DATA WATCH The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was last 0.1% higher at 99.65 but is down 8% for the year as investors look for alternatives to U.S. assets. The euro was also broadly flat at $1.1331 after dropping 0.5% on Tuesday as a bout of dollar buying swept the markets amid signs of possible trade deals and data showing U.S. consumer confidence in May was much better-than-expected. Still, new orders for U.S.-manufactured capital goods plunged by the most in six months in April as the flip-flopping tariff salvos take a toll on the economy and businesses, data showed on Tuesday. "More positive data surprises are needed to rebuild confidence in U.S. growth, and deficit worries aren't disappearing anytime soon," ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole wrote in a note. "When adding the themes of de-dollarisation and Trump's plans for a weaker dollar in the longer run, we still think the greenback rallies can fade from here." It is going to be a selective dollar weakening, with the euro and the yen likely being the key beneficiaries, said Sam Lynton-Brown, global head of macro strategy at BNP Paribas, during a call presenting the French bank's global economic outlook. The dollar was also supported by Trump's decision to delay higher tariffs on the European Union over the weekend. EU officials have asked the bloc's leading companies and CEOs for details of their U.S. investment plans, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, as Brussels prepares to advance trade talks with Washington. Sterling last bought $1.3488 but stayed close to the three-year high touched on Monday. Investors will watch out for the April Personal Consumption Expenditure report - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday that could help gauge the impact of Trump's trade policies. Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting this month will be released later in the day. The Australian dollar last fetched $0.6438 as data showed consumer inflation held steady in April, leaving hopes for more interest rate cuts mostly intact. The New Zealand dollar firmed 0.33% to $0.5969 after the country's central bank signalled it might be nearer to an end to easing than some in the market had hoped for as it cut rates by 25 bps as expected. (Reporting by Ankur Banerjee, Johann M Cherian in Singapore and Linda Pasquini in Gdansk; Editing by Helen Popper, Kirsten Donovan)
Bloomberg
27-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance: Tariff Rally
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney May 27th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Steve Chiavarone, Senior Portfolio Manager at Federated Hermes, talks about why he remains constructive on the US economy and the potential for a cyclical recovery in the US. The dollar bounced back, and equity-index futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 1%, as President Donald Trump extended a deadline on implementing aggressive Euro-area tariffs. 2) Nicholas Burns, former US ambassador to China, joins for an extended discussion on US-China relations and where they stand in a second Trump administration. The plans for a new version of China's "Made in China 2025" campaign indicate that China will largely stick to its strategy of prioritizing manufacturing, despite criticism from the US and Europe, and will focus on developing core technologies such as semiconductors and new energy materials. 3) Jane Foley, Head of FX Strategy at RaboBank, talks about dollar weakness and the yen carry trade amid noise coming out of the Japanese bond market. Tong-term government bonds yields in Europe and Asia also fell, while the yen and other currencies declined, as investors reacted to the news from Japan. Japan's 20-year bond yield slid as much as 21 basis points after Bloomberg News reported the nation's finance ministry asked market participants for their views on the appropriate amount of government debt issuance. 4) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins to discuss the trade deals likely not to materialize for President Trump's administration, and what types of tariff rates the US could expect this summer 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Business Insider story on bringing plus-ones on work trips and a WSJ story on the skyrocketing cost of a Hamptons girls weekend trip.
Time of India
14-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Dollar extends losses following its biggest decline in more than three weeks; here's what is fueling the weakness
Dollar extends losses as inflation slows- The U.S. dollar extended losses early Wednesday, continuing its downward slide after posting its biggest drop in over three weeks the previous day. This came on the heels of weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data, which strengthened the argument for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year. Simultaneously, signs of easing global trade tensions have shifted investor sentiment, pulling the greenback lower against major currencies. Why is the dollar falling after inflation data? At the core of the dollar's weakness is the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The data showed inflation rose just 0.2% last month, slightly below economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase, according to a Reuters poll. The figure followed a 0.1% decline in March, indicating slowing price pressures across the economy. Also Read: Gold's glow fades as inflation cools and China fears ease – where does gold go from here in 2025? The softer inflation print dented confidence in the U.S. economy's momentum and added to speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut rates to support growth. According to LSEG data, traders are now pricing in about 53 basis points of interest rate cuts before the year ends, with a likely quarter-point cut expected in September. How are other major currencies performing against the dollar? Following the inflation release, several major currencies gained ground against the dollar: Live Events The euro rose 0.33% to $1.1222 The British pound climbed 0.24% to $1.3335 The Japanese yen strengthened 0.96%, sending the dollar down to ¥146.04 These movements pushed the U.S. Dollar Index—which tracks the greenback against six major peers—down 0.40% to 100.58, marking a sharp turnaround from Monday when the index rose 1% to a one-month high amid optimism about improving U.S.-China trade relations. But that optimism has faded. As Rabobank's Head of FX Strategy Jane Foley put it, "The market is back to being very skeptical and fearful… We have certainly seen the dollar behaving as a risky currency" ever since the April 2 tariff announcement. What happened between South Korea and the U.S. on forex? In Asia, focus turned to the South Korean won, which saw sharp gains after a recent meeting between South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister Choi and U.S. Treasury official Robert Kaproth. The discussions, held on May 5, centered on forex markets, a sensitive topic for both governments. The outcome of the meeting appeared to confirm market suspicions that the U.S. may favor a weaker dollar, adding to the pressure on the greenback. In response, the won surged over 1% on the day, with the dollar last down 1.3% to 1,397.35 won—its lowest level in a week. According to Scotiabank analysts, the talks 'reinforced market suspicions of a U.S. administration that appears to be leaning toward a preference for a weaker dollar,' noting that Asian currencies broadly led gains in the FX market. Is the Federal Reserve planning to cut interest rates? The Federal Reserve has maintained a wait-and-see approach recently, choosing to hold interest rates steady while monitoring the economic impact of ongoing trade tensions and softening inflation. The next big moment for markets will be Thursday, when the U.S. releases April's retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI), alongside a closely watched speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. These events are likely to offer more clues about whether the Fed will proceed with rate cuts this year. Currently, markets are betting that the Fed could move as soon as September, especially if economic data continues to underperform. What does this mean for global markets and investors? For now, the dollar's recent moves reflect growing investor uncertainty. After briefly gaining on hopes of de-escalation in trade wars, the greenback has slipped back as inflation cools and economic data weakens. Currency analysts like Francesco Pesole at ING suggest this is a "clear preference for strategic selling" of the dollar in anticipation of more soft data ahead. In traditional market patterns, the dollar tends to rise during times of global uncertainty. But in this case, it's behaving more like a risk asset, moving in sync with equity markets rather than against them. With traders recalibrating their expectations, all eyes are now on U.S. economic indicators and central bank commentary, which could shape the next leg of the dollar's journey. FAQs: Q1: Why is the U.S. dollar falling after the April 2025 inflation report? Because inflation rose less than expected, increasing chances of a Fed rate cut. Q2: How did Korea's won gain against the dollar this week? It jumped after U.S.-Korea forex talks hinted at a weaker dollar policy.
Economic Times
14-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Dollar extends losses following its biggest decline in more than three weeks; here's what is fueling the weakness
U.S. dollar extended losses as slower-than-expected inflation data raised hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. The greenback dipped sharply against major currencies like the euro, pound, yen, and South Korea's won, which surged over 1% following U.S.-Korea forex talks. Investors now expect a rate cut by September as the Fed remains cautious. With April's CPI rising just 0.2%, lower than forecasts, market sentiment quickly shifted. All eyes are now on upcoming U.S. retail sales and Powell's speech. This story breaks down what's driving dollar weakness and what it means for global markets. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Why is the dollar falling after inflation data? How are other major currencies performing against the dollar? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The euro rose 0.33% to $1.1222 The British pound climbed 0.24% to $1.3335 The Japanese yen strengthened 0.96%, sending the dollar down to ¥146.04 What happened between South Korea and the U.S. on forex? Is the Federal Reserve planning to cut interest rates? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads What does this mean for global markets and investors? FAQs: The U.S. dollar extended losses early Wednesday, continuing its downward slide after posting its biggest drop in over three weeks the previous day. This came on the heels of weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data, which strengthened the argument for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year. Simultaneously, signs of easing global trade tensions have shifted investor sentiment, pulling the greenback lower against major the core of the dollar's weakness is the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The data showed inflation rose just 0.2% last month, slightly below economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase, according to a Reuters poll. The figure followed a 0.1% decline in March, indicating slowing price pressures across the softer inflation print dented confidence in the U.S. economy's momentum and added to speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut rates to support growth. According to LSEG data, traders are now pricing in about 53 basis points of interest rate cuts before the year ends, with a likely quarter-point cut expected in the inflation release, several major currencies gained ground against the dollar:These movements pushed the U.S. Dollar Index—which tracks the greenback against six major peers—down 0.40% to 100.58, marking a sharp turnaround from Monday when the index rose 1% to a one-month high amid optimism about improving U.S.-China trade that optimism has faded. As Rabobank's Head of FX Strategy Jane Foley put it, "The market is back to being very skeptical and fearful… We have certainly seen the dollar behaving as a risky currency" ever since the April 2 tariff Asia, focus turned to the South Korean won, which saw sharp gains after a recent meeting between South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister Choi and U.S. Treasury official Robert Kaproth. The discussions, held on May 5, centered on forex markets, a sensitive topic for both outcome of the meeting appeared to confirm market suspicions that the U.S. may favor a weaker dollar, adding to the pressure on the greenback. In response, the won surged over 1% on the day, with the dollar last down 1.3% to 1,397.35 won—its lowest level in a to Scotiabank analysts, the talks 'reinforced market suspicions of a U.S. administration that appears to be leaning toward a preference for a weaker dollar,' noting that Asian currencies broadly led gains in the FX Federal Reserve has maintained a wait-and-see approach recently, choosing to hold interest rates steady while monitoring the economic impact of ongoing trade tensions and softening next big moment for markets will be Thursday, when the U.S. releases April's retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI), alongside a closely watched speech from Fed Chair Jerome events are likely to offer more clues about whether the Fed will proceed with rate cuts this year. Currently, markets are betting that the Fed could move as soon as September, especially if economic data continues to now, the dollar's recent moves reflect growing investor uncertainty. After briefly gaining on hopes of de-escalation in trade wars, the greenback has slipped back as inflation cools and economic data weakens. Currency analysts like Francesco Pesole at ING suggest this is a "clear preference for strategic selling" of the dollar in anticipation of more soft data traditional market patterns, the dollar tends to rise during times of global uncertainty. But in this case, it's behaving more like a risk asset, moving in sync with equity markets rather than against traders recalibrating their expectations, all eyes are now on U.S. economic indicators and central bank commentary, which could shape the next leg of the dollar's inflation rose less than expected, increasing chances of a Fed rate jumped after U.S.-Korea forex talks hinted at a weaker dollar policy.
