Latest news with #JaredBlickre
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Nvidia's contributions to broader market, tech sector growth
Nvidia (NVDA) released first quarter results after Wednesday's market close, topping revenue estimates, sending the chip stock higher, and lifting its market cap and broader markets (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC). Yahoo Finance markets and data editor Jared Blikre — who also hosts the Stocks In Translation podcast — lays out how Nvidia's market cap has contributed to growth in the tech sector and equities alike. Also catch Yahoo Finance's coverage of how the chip stock historically reacts to earnings. Twice a week, Stocks In Translation cuts through the market mayhem, noisy numbers and hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. You can find more episodes here, or watch on your favorite streaming service. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. Nvidia out with better than feared earnings, margins holding strong and the stock adding over 200 billion in market cap today alone. But Nvidia isn't just another big tech name, it has become the center of gravity for the entire sector. I'm Jared Blickre, host of Stocks and Translation. Now, check out this first chart. It shows Nvidia's market cap as a percent of major indices over the last decade. Back in 2015, it was a drop in the bucket, less than 1% of US semiconductors. And today, Nvidia is nearly half, 45% of the entire Philly semiconductor index. But interesting quirk here, uh, if you look at the semiconductor ETF, SOXX, Nvidia is only about 10% with Broadcom actually a bigger holding despite a smaller market cap. Similar story for XLK. And now arcane SEC rules dating from the 1940s keep Nvidia's concentration in check to a degree for tradable securities, but it still exerts an outsized influence and let's get back to the chart here. Because zooming out even further, Nvidia is now 20% of large cap tech and 6% of the entire S&P 500. Bottom line, Nvidia now moves the entire market like few stocks ever have. Next chart. This is since October 22. This is the Fed pivot low, which kicked off the current bull market. Nvidia alone has added an incredible $3 trillion in market cap. And it wasn't even a $300 billion company when this rally started. Over that same period, the rest of the S&P 500 sector X Nvidia added $8 trillion, while the entire S&P 500 gained 20 trillion. So when Nvidia moves, the whole market feels it, and that's a lot of market power in just one stock. And here's a different way to to see that influence. In this chart, each bar shows how much market cap Nvidia has added or lost each year, alongside tech and the rest of the S&P 500. Now notice that Nvidia has been up six of the last seven years, including this year, but just barely, adding through May 28th, about $16 billion. But here's the catch. Back in 2022, when tech crashed, Nvidia alone lost nearly $400 billion. Concentration works both ways. And the big question now is what happens if Nvidia stumbles? Remember Cisco in 2000? It dominated the Nasdaq at peak. Then it lost 80% of its value. Index investors were hammered. Bottom line, Nvidia's market dominance isn't just historic, it is a double-edged sword. But with earnings finally in the rear view mirror, a big market risk is finally off the table, for the time being. Tune into Stocks and Translation for more jargon busting deep dives. New episodes on Tuesdays and Thursdays on Yahoo Finances website or wherever you find your podcast. Jared, great overview, as always. Thanks so much.
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks near record highs, US dollar & yields: Market Takeaways
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has turned positive in 2025, coming off a whirlwind rally driven by tech drivers and the US-China tariff truce. Yahoo Finance markets and data editor Jared Blikre joins the Asking for a Trend team to talk Tuesday's biggest trading themes, including the stocks nearing record highs and moves within the bond market (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) and US dollar (DX=F, To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. The S&P 500 wipes out 2025 losses as Nvidia powers the tech rally and Yahoo finances Jared Blickre joins us now with the trading day takeaways, Jared. That's right, Josh, AI, back to AI trade, and we are nearing records. The S&P 500 not only positive for the year, but it is within 4 percentage points of a record high. And I just wanted to show you what else is really close here. So don't get worried, I'm going to show you some red, but the red is how close these are to the record highs. So XL, that's Industrials within 2%, financials within 3%, and there's that S&P 500 within four. Tech right behind, then you got utilities, communication services within five, and the list goes on. And just to show you in the Nasdaq who's really close, we got some names that are at or near those records right now. Now, these, to be fair, these are from the 52 week highs, but a lot of those are just the same thing as records. So ZScaler, Charter, Axon, booking, MercadoLibre, Palantir, Palantir hit another record high today. So it's been an impressive run, and I also have a list of stocks that are actually hitting record stocks today. And guess what? Palantir is in that list. It's the biggest one. By the way, that is a $300 billion company right now, if you believe that. Uber, another one, hitting record highs. That's up to 191 billion. And there's a Libre again. And, uh, you know, you put it all together, we're in a very nice bullish place, not to say we're out of the woods, but, uh, We're not, because I thought I thought you pop the champagne and it's it's smooth sailing ahead. Well, I got something to tell you about the Treasury market. Um, I did this whole spiel this morning about how bonds, how bond yields, and also the dollar were kind of moving in lock step. And that was since last Thursday, post-Fed meeting. And guess what they did today? They did the opposite thing. So they went in different directions. Nevertheless, it was a risk-on day to be fair, so this didn't disrupt the risk-on trade, but I want to show you the tenure is now hit 4.5%. It's starting to raise some eyebrows again. Let me show you the year to date for some context. And you can see it has been higher. I think that was 4.75% towards the beginning of the year, but these big, it's not quite round, but these big numbers like this do catch attention. And then we have the US dollar index, and that actually was lower on the day. Now, a lot of people, a lot of positioning on the street, and we just got this big Bank of America Global Fund Manager survey, um, the street is incredibly short dollars. My hypothesis is we're going to go back up, and that's based on a multi-year reversion to the mean. We've done this many times before. We had a little bit of an oops to the downside here, but guess what? We just had an oops to the upside. And so I think we're probably, more than not, going to head higher. I don't expect that to weigh on risk markets as long as we have yields and dollar marching in the same direction. Don't have time to get into that right now because I want to get into a clip about related CPI this morning. Joe Bruce Willis sat down with him over at RSM with for Stocks and Translation episode last week, and he was talking about the impact of tariffs taking a while to take effect, and he was even predicting that this CPI report that we got today wasn't going to be that bad, but watch out for future months. Here's what he said. Next week we're going to get the CPI. You'll start to see little bits of it, dribs and drabs from the tariffs that were put on early in the administration. This will be April CPI. Yeah, April CPI, that's correct. Thank you, Jared. Um, but it will take a bit more time. Right now, it's more anecdotal, like Gene Seroka informing all of us that, hey, an event's about to happen. Um, so this time it really does feel like we've got a recession that's in train, no pun intended. We've assigned a 55% probability, and we we think that's about right. Um, you know, our baseline scenario is a recession. Our alternative baseline is slower growth. All right, that episode coming out in the near future. Gene Seroka, by the way, head of the Port of LA, and he's saying watch out because things are not looking good there in terms of the volume of shipments coming down with this new trade tariff Dayton. We'll have to see.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bull vs. Bear market: What indicators say about investor sentiment
Yahoo Finance markets and data editor Jared Blikre — who also hosts the Stocks In Translation podcast — breaks down the latest market (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) signals, offering both bearish and bullish insights on the S&P 500's potential direction. He explains how market technicals, sentiment indicators, and historical trends could shape the outlook in the coming months. Twice a week, Stocks In Translation cuts through the market mayhem, noisy numbers and hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. You can find more episodes here, or watch on your favorite streaming service. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. The S&P 500's longest winning streak in 20 years, it stalled out earlier this week, raising the question from investors. Was this just one of those flashy short covering rallies, or the start of a race to fresh all-time highs? I'm Jared Blickre, host of Stocks in Translation. Well, today I have two bearish signals and two bullish signals. And we're going to go through this, but first I got to get to a definition. Market technicals. Market technicals analyze stocks and markets using price action, chart patterns, and technical indicators. And first up is the 200-day moving average. And we're going to look at the Kahuna, the S&P 500. And there's that 200-day moving average in blue, and you can see we've been camped out underneath it for about six days until we got get over that. And it wouldn't take much. I still land in the bearish camp. So we're kind of on the razor's edge here, and we got to move along because now I want to get to sentiment. And the definition of market sentiment is the collective attitude of investors toward financial markets, driven by optimism, which is bullishness, and pessimism, which is bearishness. And for that, we have a number of examples. We have surveys and polls, like consumer consumer confidence, and consumer sentiment. We have fund flows. Where is the money flowing as opposed to what are just the prices? We have market internals and breadth. For example, how many stocks in the S&P 500 are advancing or declining at a certain time? Social media speaks for itself. Derivatives and options. We're going to circle back to that in a second. But then we have insider activity. What is the C-suite doing? Are the CEOs buying their own stocks? And then new ETFs. Takes a long time for these products to come into market, and sometimes it's a contrary signal, very much like magazine covers. And we're going to come back to those too. But I want to stick with derivatives and options for just a minute here, and I'm going to take a look at the VIX. And yes, the VIX is a sentiment indicator here. And here we see it is still in the low 20s. And what I want to point out is that this is a six-month chart, first of all. Earlier, last December, we did have a little bit of a hiccup in the markets. It was a Fed announcement that came out a little bit hawkish, but it was the elevator up and an elevator down. It was very quick. But what we're seeing this time, and I'm going to put some candlesticks, you might have to squint, it's of a different character. It took a while to get up there, and it's taking a long time to get back down. This tells me a Steve Steve Snasknik likes to say, the VIX is not a fear gauge. It is a kind of a barometer of institutional hedging demand, and we're seeing a lot of uncertainty in the institutional space. So there's a the bearish arguments. But now we want to move on to the bullish ones. And here is history. I like history. Seasonality is one of those. This is not seasonality, by the way, but what happened in April was really interesting. We saw the S&P 500, it was down 10%, and then it was up 10% in one month. This has happened 35 times since 1960, and over the next few months, even to the quarter, it does get a little bit dicey at times. We could actually see a return to those lows that we saw. But what's very bullish for me in the longer term is that one year out, 83% of the time, we were up with median returns of 14%. And I think that would be welcomed from investors this year. Now, here's my second bullish argument, and this might be a little bit contrarian. Here's a Barron's cover from over the weekend, where did the bulls go? So this is a clearly bearish take, but a magazine cover, kind of like a new ETF launch, it takes a while to produce and it's kind of stored up pent up pent up sentiment as to where the market might be not going. And so we see this play out in different ways. I would also draw attention to the fact that they're trying to make sense of Palantir's lofty price. That was just days before the price crashed 10%, which was the biggest drop in the year. So you put it all together, where where having some mixed signals right now, but we are on that razor's edge, and we can flip pretty quickly into bullish or firmly bearish territory. So tune into Stocks and Translation for more jargon-busting deep dives, new episodes on Tuesdays and Thursdays on Yahoo Finance's website or wherever you find your podcast. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Palantir stock: Institutional vs. retail trading trends
00:00 Jared Palantir is having its worst day in exactly one year. And the reason is just the same as it was 12 months ago. A big disappointment on some key earnings metrics. So, let's dive in and see how retail traders have been trading this stock over that time period. I'm Jared Blickre, host of Stocks in Translation. First off, this is a year-long chart. In white, we have the price performance of Palantir stock that I'm tracing along right now. And in the green, we have a line from Vanda Research. This tracks retail participation and retail buying. It is a 10-day moving average offset buying. And you can see there's kind of a cyclicality to it. And a lot of times when price goes up, you'll also see this retail buying move up. And that means that retail traders are supporting the price movements. But it's not always the case. Sometimes it's institutions that are supporting it. So, this is a six-month chart, and we're using a five-day moving average, so it's a little bit more volatile. And here we have in white, still, this is Palantir, and there's that same bull pattern that I was just highlighting. And in green, we have that five-day moving average of the flows. Now, what's interesting, and a representative from Vanda Research pointed this out to me, just take this price example, we had a little bit of a dip in price, then a recovery, and at the time, this was a recovery to brand new highs, and we didn't really see retail join the party until it broke to new highs. And actually, before that, they were selling. So, it was institutions that were supporting the price, and then retail was chasing the move. And that's kind of important. Sometimes people say retail is always chasing, but I found that's not always the case. So, I want to dig a little bit deeper into the price action over the last three days, because as I said, we had a huge dip in Palantir, about 10% drop. This chart goes three days back, and I have Palantir here in white again. Here's that drop, and we can see that today, there was a little bit of a recovery. Now, I have both large player and small player effective volume. Now, these are different measurements that what we were tracking with Vanda just a minute ago. This happens to be the discovery of Pascal Willemain, and he has something called effective volume. And he breaks down the price action into small player and large player. So, the small player is a retail player. And what I want to show you here is in green, the institutions were selling, they were selling that dip in the morning, and retail was buying, and then retail sold. So, retail's kind of driving the trade up and then down, maybe day trading. Meanwhile, institutions, once we had that second dip into the morning, or once we got to that high, rather, they have been supporting price since. So, it looks like the large players, the institutions, have stepped in a bit. So, Palantir is one of those retail darlings, and we've seen a lot of retail excitement over it in fits and starts. It's a day trading favorite. And sometimes retail, sometimes retail traders are the impetus for the moves that we see in the stock, and sometimes it's the institutions. Today, I think it's kind of a mix of both.
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Market's 200-day moves, dollar trends, gold: Market Takeaways
00:00 Speaker A Stocks closing lower ahead of this week's Fed decision as tariff fears return. Yahoo Finances Jared Blickre joins us now with the trading day takeaways, Jared. 00:10 Jared Blickre Thank you, Josh. We got to start with the 200 day moving average, and I'm going to pull up the S&P 500 first. And we have a little technical, uh, indicator here, which is the 200 day moving average. And this is just a moving average of the prior 200 prices. Why does it move? We just advance it one day, and then an older number falls off. But you can see it moves pretty slowly. This is a year to date chart, and we first broke below it in early March, came back just a little bit above it, and then we sold off sharply underneath it. That was that really steep drop that we saw in early April. Now we have come back, and we have not quite touched it, but it is acting as resistance. We had nine up days here in a row, and now we have two down days in a row. And I think that just tells you the power of this particular indicator. And it's not just S&P 500, it's also the Nasdaq composite. And yes, there's a little bit of a gap there, but close enough for busy or government work, and Nasdaq 100 touched it almost exactly intraday. So this is a powerful indicator. We want to push above it and then maybe use it as support, and then a textbook rally could follow, you know, maybe to new highs. But some, uh, some things remain to be seen, so we got to be a little bit careful. 02:05 Speaker A All right, remains to be seen. What about the dollar, my friend? It's been a while since we talked about the green back. 02:11 Jared Blickre Exactly. So there's a de-dollarization that's been going on for over 10 years. And this even predates Trump and all these policies. China and Russia have been moving into gold, and there's been talk of a new currency world order and all kinds of, uh, conspiracy theories there. And there are some facts as well. But I just want to look at the currencies. This is, uh, the US dollar versus a bunch of other currencies all over the world, and this goes back one month. Let me just show you the last three days, uh, because at the bottom of this list is TWD equals X. That is the Taiwan dollar. So the US dollar, um, has been sinking versus the Taiwan dollar. That means the Taiwan dollar has been, uh, has been rising. And here's that three-day look. So we got a little bit of a bump up today. That was the green you were just seeing, but it's really small in comparison to this big down move. And the Taiwan dollar just doesn't move that much that often, so it's kind of notable when it does. This is a 10-year chart, and this is pretty remarkably stable for a currency. And you can see when it got right back up here to these highs, US dollar versus Taiwanese dollar, then it fell off very, very quickly. And so part of that is, uh, the speculation that there might be some kind of a new trade deal with China. And to support that theory, we're also seeing some movement in the CNY. That is the Chinese yuan. Let me just show you. This is a 10-year chart, and you can see it's very close to these highs. Hasn't fallen off quite as much. Um, some random movements here. Let me just show you the three-day in the Chinese yuan. And there you can see we got a big drop in there that we were talking about over the last couple days. So all in all, some really interesting movements in the currency markets, not a lot of green there. Um, by the way, if you're interested in what those green scores are, ARS is the Argentinian peso, number two, the Brazilian real, then we got the Mexican peso, and, uh, the, this is going to stump me here, but I'll get it in a second. There we go, the Turkish lira. So kind of emerging market currencies, US dollar doing well against, but for the most part, the US dollar has been sinking all year long. 05:23 Speaker A Dollar weakness brings us to our last topic, gold. 05:27 Jared Blickre Yes, let us get to some gold talk here because gold is almost at another record. Uh, I didn't get to put record in there, but we have some golden opportunities. And so let's chart the yellow metal and see what it has been doing technically lately. We just had a 2% move, uh, off of recent lows today and a 2% plus move yesterday. So that's two back-to-back, and that's pretty important because you don't see gold moving that quickly, that fast, that often, except when it really means it. Um, so here's a year-to-date chart in gold, and you can see on a closing level, it has gotten to a new record. But if you take a look at the intraday, we're not quite there yet. We'll call that pretty close. Um, and then 3439, very close to that $3,500 level. And supporting the gold, uh, trade and maybe pointing us to some future movement is gold volatility. And we took a look at this last week or the week before, the Gold VIX, unlike the stock VIX, actually goes up when the gold is going up. So we've seen, uh, let me put a line chart in here so we can see a little bit easier. We saw gold fall, gold rise, and we saw gold volatility rise as well. Now it's declined, but now it's also rising. So with gold, uh, and backed by gold volatility, it just points to potential for higher prices. I would be very surprised if we did not cross 3500 in the near future. And I also want to chart the gold miners because gold miners, let me show you a max chart. Gold miners is a mean reverting asset for the most part, but you can see we just got a breakout here. So very powerful move in the gold miners. Flows have been very negative, which points to the bullish picture. If flows pick up, we could see a lot more movement into these gold miners. 08:01 Speaker A Right, technicals, dollar, miners, we did it all. Thank you, my friend. Appreciate it.
