Market's 200-day moves, dollar trends, gold: Market Takeaways

Yahoo

06-05-2025

00:00
Speaker A
Stocks closing lower ahead of this week's Fed decision as tariff fears return. Yahoo Finances Jared Blickre joins us now with the trading day takeaways, Jared.
00:10
Jared Blickre
Thank you, Josh. We got to start with the 200 day moving average, and I'm going to pull up the S&P 500 first. And we have a little technical, uh, indicator here, which is the 200 day moving average. And this is just a moving average of the prior 200 prices. Why does it move? We just advance it one day, and then an older number falls off. But you can see it moves pretty slowly. This is a year to date chart, and we first broke below it in early March, came back just a little bit above it, and then we sold off sharply underneath it. That was that really steep drop that we saw in early April. Now we have come back, and we have not quite touched it, but it is acting as resistance. We had nine up days here in a row, and now we have two down days in a row. And I think that just tells you the power of this particular indicator. And it's not just S&P 500, it's also the Nasdaq composite. And yes, there's a little bit of a gap there, but close enough for busy or government work, and Nasdaq 100 touched it almost exactly intraday. So this is a powerful indicator. We want to push above it and then maybe use it as support, and then a textbook rally could follow, you know, maybe to new highs. But some, uh, some things remain to be seen, so we got to be a little bit careful.
02:05
Speaker A
All right, remains to be seen. What about the dollar, my friend? It's been a while since we talked about the green back.
02:11
Jared Blickre
Exactly. So there's a de-dollarization that's been going on for over 10 years. And this even predates Trump and all these policies. China and Russia have been moving into gold, and there's been talk of a new currency world order and all kinds of, uh, conspiracy theories there. And there are some facts as well. But I just want to look at the currencies. This is, uh, the US dollar versus a bunch of other currencies all over the world, and this goes back one month. Let me just show you the last three days, uh, because at the bottom of this list is TWD equals X. That is the Taiwan dollar. So the US dollar, um, has been sinking versus the Taiwan dollar. That means the Taiwan dollar has been, uh, has been rising. And here's that three-day look. So we got a little bit of a bump up today. That was the green you were just seeing, but it's really small in comparison to this big down move. And the Taiwan dollar just doesn't move that much that often, so it's kind of notable when it does. This is a 10-year chart, and this is pretty remarkably stable for a currency. And you can see when it got right back up here to these highs, US dollar versus Taiwanese dollar, then it fell off very, very quickly. And so part of that is, uh, the speculation that there might be some kind of a new trade deal with China. And to support that theory, we're also seeing some movement in the CNY. That is the Chinese yuan. Let me just show you. This is a 10-year chart, and you can see it's very close to these highs. Hasn't fallen off quite as much. Um, some random movements here. Let me just show you the three-day in the Chinese yuan. And there you can see we got a big drop in there that we were talking about over the last couple days. So all in all, some really interesting movements in the currency markets, not a lot of green there. Um, by the way, if you're interested in what those green scores are, ARS is the Argentinian peso, number two, the Brazilian real, then we got the Mexican peso, and, uh, the, this is going to stump me here, but I'll get it in a second. There we go, the Turkish lira. So kind of emerging market currencies, US dollar doing well against, but for the most part, the US dollar has been sinking all year long.
05:23
Speaker A
Dollar weakness brings us to our last topic, gold.
05:27
Jared Blickre
Yes, let us get to some gold talk here because gold is almost at another record. Uh, I didn't get to put record in there, but we have some golden opportunities. And so let's chart the yellow metal and see what it has been doing technically lately. We just had a 2% move, uh, off of recent lows today and a 2% plus move yesterday. So that's two back-to-back, and that's pretty important because you don't see gold moving that quickly, that fast, that often, except when it really means it. Um, so here's a year-to-date chart in gold, and you can see on a closing level, it has gotten to a new record. But if you take a look at the intraday, we're not quite there yet. We'll call that pretty close. Um, and then 3439, very close to that $3,500 level. And supporting the gold, uh, trade and maybe pointing us to some future movement is gold volatility. And we took a look at this last week or the week before, the Gold VIX, unlike the stock VIX, actually goes up when the gold is going up. So we've seen, uh, let me put a line chart in here so we can see a little bit easier. We saw gold fall, gold rise, and we saw gold volatility rise as well. Now it's declined, but now it's also rising. So with gold, uh, and backed by gold volatility, it just points to potential for higher prices. I would be very surprised if we did not cross 3500 in the near future. And I also want to chart the gold miners because gold miners, let me show you a max chart. Gold miners is a mean reverting asset for the most part, but you can see we just got a breakout here. So very powerful move in the gold miners. Flows have been very negative, which points to the bullish picture. If flows pick up, we could see a lot more movement into these gold miners.
08:01
Speaker A
Right, technicals, dollar, miners, we did it all. Thank you, my friend. Appreciate it.