Latest news with #JaspreetKalra
Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
India rupee, bonds expected to move higher in run-up to RBI policy decision
By Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI, June 2 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to kick off the week on a positive note, boosted by stronger-than-expected economic growth data, and, alongside government bonds, will be influenced by the central bank's monetary policy decision, due on Friday. The rupee closed at 85.5075 against the U.S. dollar last Friday, down 0.4% in a week dominated by choppy price action across forex markets. Data after the market close on Friday showed India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4% in the January-March quarter, the fastest in a year, and above economists' expectations of 6.7%. The strong growth may lift equities, which should help the rupee both via portfolio inflows and a sentimental boost, a trader at a foreign bank said. Traders expect the rupee to hover in a 84.80-86 range in the near term. Developments surrounding U.S. tariff policies also be in focus this week. U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday accused China of violating a bilateral deal to roll back tariffs and announced a doubling of worldwide steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%. A team of U.S. trade officials, meanwhile, is slated to visit India on June 5-6. The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to deliver a third straight 25-basis-point rate cut on June 6, lowering the key rate to 5.75%. "The big macro picture for INR and India is that inflation is likely to remain manageable for some time ... with CPI expected to remain below 4% over the next few quarters," MUFG Bank said in a note. India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield pared its earlier losses to end flat at 6.2308% on Friday. It fell to 6.1672% in the week. Traders anticipate the yield to move between 6.18% and 6.26% until the RBI decision. The five-year bond yield outperformed the 10-year yield for a third straight month in May. "There has been a bull-steeping in the bond market. The market anticipates the RBI will cut rates and is at extreme bullish positioning," said Vishal Goenka, co-founder of bond trading platform, Capital Economics expects growth to remain strong over the coming quarters and eyes a further 50 bps of interest rate cuts. ** May HSBC manufacturing PMI - June 2, Monday (10:30 a.m.) ** May HSBC services PMI - June 4, Wednesday (10:30 a.m.) ** RBI monetary policy decision - June 6, Friday (10 a.m.) ** May S&P Global Flash manufacturing PMI final - June 2, Monday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** May ISM manufacturing PMI - June 2, Monday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** April factory orders - June 3, Tuesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** May S&P Global composite PMI final - June 4, Wednesday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** May S&P Global services PMI final - June 4, Wednesday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** May ISM non-manufacturing PMI - June 4, Wednesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** April international trade - June 5, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** Initial weekly jobless claims (for week to May 26) - June 5, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** May non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate - June 6, Friday (6:00 p.m. IST) (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Savio D'Souza)
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Rupee flips back to monthly decline, lags Asian peers
(Adds dropped word in paragraph 3) By Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI (Reuters) -The Indian rupee declined by about 1% in May, reversing course after gaining in the previous two months, influenced by factors such as continued uncertainty over U.S. trade policies, gains in its Asian peers and a conflict between India and Pakistan. The rupee closed at 85.5775 on Friday, capping a day of choppy trading with a mild decline. The currency had rallied to a six-month high earlier in May but shed its gains through the month. Initially, a military conflict between India and Pakistan hurt the currency but it rebounded once a ceasefire was reached. Over the rest of the month, dollar demand from corporates and foreign banks weighed on the rupee, traders said. Dollar-buying intervention by Reserve Bank of India also put a lid on the sharp appreciation above the 84.60-84.80 zone, according to one of the traders. Meanwhile, the dollar was set to end the month little changed against major peers as mild relief on the softening of U.S. trade policies, typified by the pact with China, gave way to a legal back-and-forth on the legal validity of reciprocal tariffs. Asian currencies were mostly stronger on the month, led by the Korean won while the offshore Chinese yuan, a closely tracked peer of the rupee, rose nearly 1%. Barclays expects the rupee to underperform its peers going forward as the RBI focuses on replenishing FX reserves and is "unlikely to want to see a renewed richening of the INR," analysts at the firm said in a note earlier this week. India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $685.7 billion as of May 16, about $19 billion below their all-time high hit in September 2024. Traders now await the release of India's economic growth data for the January-March quarter and U.S. PCE inflation data due later in the day. Economists polled by Reuters expect India's GDP to have grown 6.7% year-on-year, up from 6.2% in the previous three months. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Economic Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Rupee flips back to monthly decline, lags Asian peers
The Indian rupee declined by about 1% in May, reversing course after gaining in the previous two months, influenced by factors such as continued uncertainty over U.S. trade policies, gains in its Asian peers and a conflict between India and Pakistan. ADVERTISEMENT The rupee closed at 85.5775 on Friday, capping a day of choppy trading with a mild decline. The currency had rallied to a six-month earlier in May but shed its gains through the month. Initially, a military conflict between India and Pakistan hurt the currency but it rebounded once a ceasefire was reached. Over the rest of the month, dollar demand from corporates and foreign banks weighed on the rupee, traders said. Dollar-buying intervention by Reserve Bank of India also put a lid on the sharp appreciation above the 84.60-84.80 zone, according to one of the traders. Meanwhile, the dollar was set to end the month little changed against major peers as mild relief on the softening of U.S. trade policies, typified by the pact with China, gave way to a legal back-and-forth on the legal validity of reciprocal tariffs. ADVERTISEMENT Asian currencies were mostly stronger on the month, led by the Korean won while the offshore Chinese yuan, a closely tracked peer of the rupee, rose nearly 1%. Barclays expects the rupee to underperform its peers going forward as the RBI focuses on replenishing FX reserves and is "unlikely to want to see a renewed richening of the INR," analysts at the firm said in a note earlier this week. ADVERTISEMENT India's foreign exchange reserves stood at $685.7 billion as of May 16, about $19 billion below their all-time high hit in September 2024. Traders now await the release of India's economic growth data for the January-March quarter and U.S. PCE inflation data due later in the day. ADVERTISEMENT Economists polled by Reuters expect India's GDP to have grown 6.7% year-on-year, up from 6.2% in the previous three months. (Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Janane Venkatraman) ADVERTISEMENT (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Mint
22-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Outflows, decline past key technical level pushes rupee to one-month low
MUMBAI, May 22 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined to a more-than-one-month low on Thursday, pressured by likely outflows from local equities and the breach of a key technical support level that triggered stop-losses on speculative long bets. The South Asian currency closed at 86.0025 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.4% on the day. It fell past a key support level of 85.80 to hit a trough of 86.1025 during the session, its lowest since April 11. Dollar bids from foreign banks and one large state-run lender, likely on behalf of their clients, also weighed on the rupee, traders said. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 closed lower by around 0.8% each on the day, tracking losses in global peers. An uptick in the dollar index also weighed on the currency and its regional peers in the afternoon session. The rupee is down about 1.5% over May so far, lagging most regional peers. Traders say that despite broad weakness in the dollar, strong demand from local companies and foreign banks for the greenback has weighed on the rupee. In the medium-term though, BofA Research expects the rupee to track the dollar's weakness and get support from improving capital inflows and trade engagement. The firm has joined peers in turning more bullish on the currency. Uncertainty about U.S. trade policies combined with worries over the U.S. fiscal outlook has weighed on the dollar, Treasuries and equities. U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill, up for a vote later in the day, would add $3.8 trillion over the next decade to the current debt of $36.2 trillion. "U.S. equity futures and Treasuries are stabilising this morning, but the risks of another rough session for U.S. markets remain tangible," ING Bank said in a note. (Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Savio D'Souza)
Mint
21-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Indian rupee lags behind Asian peers as foreign banks dollar bids weigh
MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Indian rupee closed nearly flat on Wednesday, trailing behind its Asian peers as the impact of a weaker U.S. dollar was blunted by strong demand for the greenback from foreign banks, likely on behalf of custodial clients. The rupee closed at 85.6375 per dollar, compared to its previous close at 85.6350. Other Asian currencies rose between 0.1% to 0.6% as the dollar index drooped to a two-week low before paring losses to last quote at 99.6. The dollar has been weighed down by concerns about U.S. fiscal policy and fading optimism about cooling of trade tensions, as investors await details on signs of progress on trade talks. "The tendency to add to USD short positions has been clear, even though the greenback remains notably undervalued against most G10 currencies when judged by short-term drivers such as rates and equity differentials," ING Bank said in a note. While this has helped boost most emerging market currencies, the rupee has been lagging amid strong local dollar demand, which traders reckon was spurred by immediate corporate payments and foreign portfolio outflows. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 closed higher by 0.5% each, pulling back from earlier gains of as much as 1%, while the benchmark 10-year bond yield edged lower. Dollar-rupee forward premiums dipped, as U.S. bond yields stuck to their recent uptrend. The 1-year dollar-rupee implied yield eased to 2.02%, its lowest level in over two months. Traders will keep an eye on remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers, news flow from the ongoing G7 meetings and developments on a U.S. tax-cut bill, which nonpartisan analysts say could add $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the U.S. debt. (Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Varun H K)
