Latest news with #JaspreetKalra
Mint
9 minutes ago
- Business
- Mint
Rupee falls to four-month low on firmer greenback, state-run banks dollar bids
MUMBAI, July 29 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined to its weakest level since mid-March in early trade on Tuesday, as a slump in the euro sharply raised the dollar index, and demand for the greenback from state-run banks added to the pressure. The rupee hit a low of 86.9150 against the U.S. dollar before paring losses to 86.8725, down 0.2% on the day, as of 11:10 a.m. IST. In recent sessions, the Indian currency has also been troubled by persistent outflows from local equities, amid a tepid quarterly earnings season, alongside muted prospects of a U.S.-India trade deal ahead of the August 1 deadline. While India is still awaiting concrete developments in negotiations, sentiment surrounding a deal between the European Union and the U.S. turned sour with leaders in France and Germany lamenting the outcome. The euro was last quoted a tad lower at 1.1584 after falling more than 1% against the dollar on Monday. Asian currencies, meanwhile, were moderately weaker between 0.2% and 0.4%. "With net short dollar positions looking crowded and easing, the U.S. dollar could get some reprieve in the near term," MUFG said in a note. But the focus will also be on the Federal Reserve's policy decision due on Wednesday wherein a dovish tilt could lead to renewed U.S. dollar weakness, supporting the broader Asian FX outlook, the note added. On the day, traders also pointed to an uptick in very-near tenor dollar-rupee swap rates spurred by anticipation of IPO-related cash dollar inflows alongside maturity of the Reserve Bank of India's forward dollar positions at the end of the month. The spot-week USD/INR swap rate, for instance, was quoting at an implied rate of about 0.60 paisa per day, well above the prevailing overnight swap rate of about 0.30 paisa. (Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Euro-fuelled dollar surge adds to headwinds facing rupee
By Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI (Reuters) -The Indian rupee is likely to open weaker on Tuesday, weighed down by a jump in the dollar index following a steep decline in the euro, as investors digested the implications of the recent US-EU trade deal. An uptick in oil prices, coupled with persistent foreign portfolio outflows, also poses challenges for the rupee, which has already declined about 1% so far this month. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 86.75-86.77 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 86.6650 in the previous session. The dollar index rose 1% on Monday, while the euro slumped, as investors sobered up to the terms of the trade deal between the European Union and the United States. "Once markets absorbed the details, sentiment flipped from the reality that tariffs would still increase to 15% with the Trump administration still maintaining tariffs as a leverage tool," analysts at DBS said in a note. Asian currencies were mostly nursing modest declines on the day and regional equities were largely weaker. India's benchmark equity index, the Nifty 50, was poised to open little changed but expected to face pressure on diminished hopes of an interim trade deal with the United States, sustained foreign outflows and tepid quarterly earnings. Foreign investors net sold nearly $700 million worth of Indian stocks on Monday, according to provisional exchange data. Traders reckon that the rupee is biased to trend lower in the near term, with support expected around the 86.80 and 87 levels. Whether the Reserve Bank of India steps in firmly to cap rupee deprecation around the 87 mark would also be key to watch, a trader at a foreign bank said. Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose to touch a 10-day high and were last hovering around $70 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was reducing the 50-day deadline he gave Russia over its war in Ukraine to 10-12 days. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.90; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.75 paise ** Dollar index at 98.6 ** Brent crude futures at $70.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.4% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $164mln worth of Indian shares on Jul. 25 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $19.2mln worth of Indian bonds on Jul. 25 Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
20 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Rupee slips but sidesteps firmer dollar as flows dominate price-action
By Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Indian rupee dipped on Monday as month-end dollar bids from importers exerted some pressure, but the currency largely sidestepped the spillover from a firmer dollar, which traders indicated was due to the absence of substantial outflows. The rupee closed at 86.6650 against the U.S. dollar, 0.2% down from its close of 86.5150 in the previous session. While the rupee was trading marginally stronger in the first half of the session, it reversed course in the latter half as the dollar index rose. Asian currencies were a tad lower on the day, with the offshore Chinese yuan down by 0.1%. The rupee is "only reacting to flows" over recent sessions, and has found some support above 86.60, a trader at a state-run bank said, pointing to price action driven by foreign portfolio flows and corporate activity. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell 0.7% and 0.63% on the day, respectively, diverging from gains in most regional equities. The country's benchmark 10-year bond yield, meanwhile, ticked up to 6.3603%. Equities in Europe were mostly higher while the euro fell, after the U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement over the weekend and investors welcomed the deal with cautious optimism. The euro's recent price action "likely reflects more general U.S. dollar sentiment that was improving toward the end of last week, and we suspect (the sentiment) could extend further this week as investors' optimism over the U.S. economy improves," MUFG said in a note. U.S. economic data, including the closely watched non-farm payrolls report, will be in focus as investors gauge how far the optimism extends. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, will deliver its policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a little over 60% chance of a rate cut in September, per CME's FedWatch tool. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Mint
a day ago
- Business
- Mint
Risk boost from US-EU trade deal of little help to rupee as outflows persist
MUMBAI (Reuters) -The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Monday, with any support from improved risk sentiment after a trade deal between the European Union (EU) and the U.S. likely to be capped by persistent foreign portfolio outflows. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 86.48-86.51 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with Friday's close of 86.5150. Global stocks rose and the euro firmed after the weekend deal between the EU and the U.S., which set the import tariff on most EU goods at 15% - half the rate initially threatened. Asian currencies traded mixed, while the dollar index was at 97.6. The U.S.-EU trade pact is expected to reduce trade-related uncertainty in a week dominated by central bank policy decisions and the U.S.'s August 1 deadline for trading partners to strike deals. Washington has already signed similar framework accords with Britain, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam. Meanwhile, India's trade minister told Reuters last week that the country is also hopeful of reaching a deal with the U.S. that includes "special and preferred treatment". Alongside these, monetary policy meetings in the U.S., Japan and other economies will be in focus this week. While the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, ANZ said it will watch for "tweaks to the language" in the Fed's statement and Chair Jerome Powell's comments for clues on possible rate cuts in September. Over the week, traders expect the rupee to hover between 86.20 and 86.80-86.90, with a slight depreciation bias given the persistent outflows from local stocks. Foreign investors have net sold Indian equities worth about $750 million so far in July, reversing three months of inflows. ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.63; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.25 paise ** Brent crude futures up 0.4% at $68.7 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.39% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $231.1mln worth of Indian shares on July 24 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $55.2mln worth of Indian bonds on July 24 (Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Sumana Nandy)
Mint
a day ago
- Business
- Mint
Indian rupee, bond markets cautious in week dominated by Fed, tariffs
By Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI, July 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee and government bonds will react to a host of cues this week, including a U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision and the August 1 reciprocal tariff deadline, which is likely to keep traders cautious. The rupee closed at 86.5150 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, down 0.4% on the week, as foreign portfolio outflows and uncertainty over a U.S.-India trade agreement kept sentiment tepid. While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, investors will pay close attention to commentary from Fed Chair Powell to gauge the outlook for U.S. policy rates. "As long as the jobs picture holds up, firmer inflation may well delay the restart of the Fed easing cycle and provide the dollar with a lift this summer," ING said in a note. Later in the week, data on the U.S. labour market will be in focus alongside an inflation print to gauge how tariffs are affecting the world's largest economy. Meanwhile, the deadline to strike trade deals with the U.S. elapses on August 1. Over the weekend, the United States and the European Union announced a deal, which will result in a 15% tariff on EU goods, half what Trump had threatened to impose from August 1. Japan and the European Union have reached agreements with U.S., alongside others such as Indonesia and Vietnam, even as India's negotiations have appeared to run into roadblocks over key sectors such as dairy and agriculture. Traders reckon that the rupee will continue to hold a slightly bearish bias and hover in a 86.30-87 range in the near term. Heightened risk of "news-led price action" should prompt speculators to keep positions small with tight stop-losses, a trader at a foreign bank said. Meanwhile, India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield , which settled last week at 6.3505%, is expected to move in a range of 6.31% to 6.38%. Apart from the Fed guidance, focus will also remain on expectations about any potential rate cut in the RBI's upcoming policy decision, due on August 6. A plunge in India's retail inflation to a more-than-six-year low in June, along with expectations that it will slip to a record low in July, has led to increased talks of a rate cut, with some even expecting action next week. The central bank slashed its key interest rate by a steeper-than-expected 50 bps last month and changed its policy stance to "neutral" from "accommodative", which had fueled speculation that the rate cut cycle may be over. Banks will also gauge the liquidity situation and movement in overnight rates after a volatile last week, which saw rates rising beyond the Marginal Standing Facility rate. Foreign investors have been on the buying side, with net purchases of over 100 billion rupees in the last five weeks, as bets of at least one more rate cut have risen. India's fundamental story remains intact. Inflation is under control and fiscal health is in check, and India is one of the large benchmark weights within the JPMorgan emerging market debt index, said Jean-Charles Sambor, head of emerging markets debt at TT International Asset Management. "We think that fundamentals will remain very attractive for foreign investors." KEY EVENTS: India ** June fiscal deficit - July 28, Monday (3:30 p.m. IST) ** June industrial output - July 28, Monday (4:00 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll - 2.4%) ** July HSBC manufacturing PMI - August 1, Friday (10:30 a.m.) U.S. ** July consumer confidence - July 29, Tuesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** April-June GDP advance - July 30, Wednesday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** Federal Reserve monetary policy decision - July 30, Wednesday (11:30 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll - rates unchanged) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to July 21 - July 31, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** June personal consumption expenditure index, core PCE index - July 31, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** July non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate - August 1, Friday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** July S&P Global manufacturing PMI final - August 1, Friday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** July ISM manufacturing PMI - August 1, Friday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** July U Mich sentiment final - August 1, Friday (7:30 p.m. IST) (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
