Latest news with #JayHatfield
Mint
08-08-2025
- Business
- Mint
US yields climb as investors look toward data
Stephen Miran nominated to Federal Reserve board JPMorgan pulls forward Fed cut expectation September Fed cut expectations near 90% (Updates to afternoon US trading) NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday, with that of the benchmark 10-year note set for its first weekly gain in three weeks after a series of lackluster auctions ahead of next week's inflation data. Yields have been choppy throughout the week, moving lower on economic data that indicated little movement in the labor market, while a services sector report hinted at a rekindling of inflationary pressures. Yields turned higher later in the session as the Treasury saw weak demand for a total of $125 billion in 3-year notes, 10-year notes and 30-year bonds. The 10-year yield recorded its biggest weekly drop in two months last week, after a soft government payrolls report sharply increased expectations on the timing and amount of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Data next week will include multiple readings on inflation, including the consumer price index (CPI), which will heavily influence rate expectations for the central bank. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield rose 3.9 basis points to 4.283% and was up 6.5 basis points on the week, on track for its biggest weekly gain since early July. "We probably came down as far as we're likely to, unless we get really much weaker data, and so our call is we stall at 4.25%, said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Management in New York. "It's normal for this to back up, because we don't know what CPI is going to be," said Hatfield, who also cited the uncertainty surrounding the makeup of the Federal Reserve board of governors. The yield on the 30-year bond rose 4.1 basis points to 4.853% and was up 4.9 basis points on the week after two straight weekly declines. Expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by the Fed at its September meeting stand at 89.4%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, up from 80.3% a week ago. According to LSEG data, the market is pricing in 58.3 basis points of cuts by the end of the year. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday the Fed's inflation and jobs goals both face risks, with policymakers needing to balance which seems the more serious threat in deciding whether it is appropriate to reduce rates. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury notes , seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 52.5 basis points. U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said he will nominate Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the final few months of a newly vacant seat at the Fed while the White House seeks a permanent addition to the central bank's governing board and continues its search for a new Fed chair. Miran is replacing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who announced a surprise resignation last week, effective on Friday. In a note to clients, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said he now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, citing signs of weakness in the labor market and uncertainty around Miran's nomination. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, advanced 2.2 basis points to 3.756% and was up 5.8 basis points on the week, on pace for its biggest weekly gain since the week ending July 3. (Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by David Holmes and Richard Chang)
Yahoo
07-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
This could be Wall Street's next hot trade
President Trump is expected to sign an executive order allowing private equity, real estate, crypto, and other alternative investments in 401(k)s. Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Threadneedle Ventures founder Ann Berry, and Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré break down the potential benefits and dangers of these new options. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Opening Bid. It's time now for our question of the day. President Trump, later today, will reportedly sign an executive order to allow private equity, real estate, crypto and other alternative investments in 401Ks. It stands to be a huge win for the private equity and crypto industries. But my question is this, would this move create an insane amount of new risk in 401Ks? Remember, 401Ks are supposed to be one's retirement nest egg, not another whipsaw stock trading account. Uh and I should note I reached out to the White House uh for a comment on this, they did not return my request for comment. Jay, let me go back to you here. I'm curious on what you think about this as someone that is um thinking about investing from a more longer term standpoint. So, I would say yes and no. So, private equity funds have legitimate companies that produce cash flow that over time trade at reasonable multiples. Whereas Bitcoin is a great gambling vehicle, probably will work particularly during the Trump administration. But I'd hate to see people build up big crypto positions in their 401Ks and then have it crack. And keep in mind that you can create an infinite amount of crypto. Uh so that that eventually at some point the bubble will burst and I don't think you should hold it in your IRA. And I mean, you have to agree with that, right? I shouldn't be cashing out of my 401K, or I mean, just keeping my 401K and calling folks up, I believe it's Fidelity in my case, and saying hey, I want to get into crypto, I want to rotate out all my dividend payers and on a 401K of crypto and hopefully I retire safely in 75 years. Well, I want to parse the difference between speculative investments and crypto and lots of people have different perspectives on that and actually talking about private equity, which I have a long background in. Um, not all private equity is created equal. If you take a look at blue chip private equity, which is leveraged buyouts of mature businesses, high cash flowing, you know, for a long period of time pre this AI investment boom, a lot of the top decile private equity funds were actually outperforming the stock indices, Brian. The reason being that you've got an ownership group that's highly engaged and pushing optimization in a way that quite frankly boards of public companies aren't necessarily holding management teams accountable to. So the idea that everyone with a 401k can get exposure to the top quality private equity firms, I actually find encouraging. I think that the important thing is getting educated on the different kinds of private equity there. It's different for venture capital, which is very early stage and high risk. It's different for growth, it's different for private credit, it's different for infrastructure, which Jay is involved in. So I think the sweeping term private equity needs to be unpacked. I think there's opportunity there, there's also risks. And as last word too, risky or not? I mean, it's risky, but this speaks to the bigger theme from a retail investor point of view or from point of view of a regular worker that puts money into their 401k. And why we're seeing crypto at Bitcoin at 116 right now is because there is a currency debasement going on. Everybody sees it and investors or retail investors, investors that are putting money into their 401k, you may not be getting a lot of pushback from them because they're thinking to themselves, I want to make sure I retire on time and that's why they keep on taking more and more risk. Related Videos Fed check-in: Waller reportedly top Chair pick, rate cut outlook Crypto stock boost, Toyota guidance cut, Zillow revenue beat DraftKings CEO on Q2, sports-betting tax, prediction markets Constellation Energy stock: Catalysts that could power it higher Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
05-08-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Market Navigator: Energy stocks to keep an eye on
Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, joins CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to discuss why he's neutral on the market, what sectors he's watching, and much more.
Axios
30-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Tariff deals could flip "sell America" trade, pull investors back to U.S. stocks
The euro slid, and Japanese and European stocks fell following new trade deals — cross-asset moves that may signal cracks in the "Sell America" trade. Why it matters: Investors rushed into non-U.S. markets earlier this year amid policy uncertainty, driving the MSCI ex-USA index up nearly 20% year to date. But if tariff deals restore confidence in the U.S., that trade could start to unwind. What they're saying: "This whole notion of U.S. exceptionalism being over and you have to go overseas is overdone," says Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors. "Asian markets and the European markets declined because I think it was correctly viewed that we won this negotiation," Hatfield tells Axios. The tariff deal is "not good" for the European economy, which could also weigh on the European stocks, he says. Between the lines: The deal may be bearish for many asset classes in the region, as the EU is set to face nearly its highest tariffs in history, which could trim a percentage point off the region's growth, PIMCO told Bloomberg. Zoom in: The European stock market is also missing the key defining factor of the American stock market's bull run: technology, Hatfield says. "They were relying on sort of the old economy, exporting to the U.S., and so their growth prospects are diminished." Asian markets are also exposed to tariff headwinds, and Hatfield is bullish on the region (excluding China), given those concerns. Be smart: The U.S. and China engaged in trade talks Tuesday. An agreement has not been reached, though Chinese officials indicated there would be an extension of a truce set to expire Aug. 12. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rebuffed claims of an agreement in an interview with CNBC, but added that "the momentum is with us," especially given the deal with Europe. Hatfield agrees. "China really is at risk. Otherwise, they wouldn't be negotiating with the U.S." Yes, but: Both Japanese and European markets are still outperforming the S&P 500 year to date. "Importantly all three are at or close to new [all-time-highs] showing the breadth of the global equity bull market," said Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory. Pelosky is more bullish on Europe and Asia, but wrote that this is the "best period for global macro investors in the last 15+ years" in a recent note.
Canada News.Net
23-07-2025
- Business
- Canada News.Net
U.S. stock markets diverge in hesitant start to week
NEW YORK, New York - U.S. equity markets delivered a mixed performance to start the week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing, and the Standard and Poor's 500 edging up to a new record high, while technology stocks weighed on the Nasdaq Composite. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new trade deal with the Philippines, implementing a 19 percent tarriff on imported Philippines goods. "This market's pretty stalled out," Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, told CNBC Monday. "We are going to need to have very strong tech earnings to propel the market much higher," he said. U.S. Market Performance The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led gains among major U.S. benchmarks, rising 179.37 points or 0.40 percent to close at 44,502.44, supported by strength in industrial and financial stocks. The broader Standard and Poor's 500 (^GSPC) inched up 4.02 points or 0.06 percent to finish at 6,309.62, marking another record closing high despite mixed sector performance. Technology stocks underperformed, dragging the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) down 81.49 points or 0.39 percent to 20,892.69 as investors rotated out of some mega-cap growth names. Market Drivers Analysts noted the divergence between value and growth stocks reflected shifting investor sentiment ahead of key economic data later this week, including inflation readings and Federal Reserve commentary. *Trading volumes: S&P 500 - 2.961 billion shares; Dow Jones - 481.207 million shares; Nasdaq - 9.562 billion shares; TSX - 148.267 million shares. U.S. Dollar Slips Against Euro and Commodity Currencies, Trimmed by Yen and Franc Strength The U.S. dollar fell on Monday, falling against the euro and commodity-linked currencies and facing resistance from a stronger Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Euro and Pound Edge Higher The euro (EUR/USD) rose 0.54 percent to 1.1751, supported by improved risk appetite in European markets. The British pound (GBP/USD) also gained, climbing 0.31 percent to 1.3530 amid steady UK economic data. Aussie and Kiwi Rally on Risk Sentiment Commodity currencies advanced, with the Australian dollar (AUD/USD) up 0.45 percent to 0.6553 and the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) surging 0.57 percent to 0.6001, as investors favored higher-yielding assets. Yen and Swiss Franc Outperform The U.S. dollar (USD/JPY) fell 0.53 percent against the Japanese yen, slipping to 146.58, as traders weighed potential Bank of Japan policy adjustments. The Swiss franc (USD/CHF) also strengthened, pushing the dollar down 0.65 percent to 0.7924 amid safe-haven demand. The US dollar (USD/CAD) declined 0.55 percent to 1.3606, pressured by a stronger Canadian dollar as crude oil prices rose. Market Outlook Currency markets remain sensitive to shifting central bank expectations, with focus turning to upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for further direction. Global Markets Close Mixed on Monday; Asia-Pacific Gains Offset European Declines UK and Global stock markets delivered a mixed performance on Monday, with gains in the Asia-Pacific region and Canada, offset by declines across major European indices. Canada North of the U.S. border, Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index (^GSPTSE) gained 47.43 points or 0.17 percent to close at 27,364.43, supported by strength in energy and materials shares as commodity prices firmed. Europe The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) in London inched higher, closing at 9,023.81, up 10.82 points or 0.12 percent, supported by gains in energy and financial stocks. However, Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) fell sharply, losing 265.90 points or 1.09 percent to end at 24,041.90, weighed down by weak industrial data. France's CAC 40 (^FCHI) dropped 53.81 points or 0.69 percent to 7,744.41, while the EURO STOXX 50 (^STOXX50E) declined 52.50 points or 0.98 percent to 5,290.48. The broader Euronext 100 (^N100) slipped 9.06 points or 0.57 percent to 1,573.39, and Belgium's BEL 20 (^BFX) edged down 6.67 points or 0.15 percent to 4,547.41. Asia and Pacific In contrast, most Asian markets ended in positive territory. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (^HSI) rose 135.89 points or 0.54 percent to 25,130.03, while Singapore's STI Index (^STI) gained 1.13 points or 0.03 percent to 4,208.26. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO) added 9.00 points or 0.10 percent to 8,677.20, and the All Ordinaries (^AORD) climbed 15.30 points or 0.17 percent to 8,941.50, while New Zealand's NZX 50 (^NZ50) fell 127.77 points or 0.99 percent to 12,833.74. Japan's Nikkei 225 (^N225) dipped slightly, losing 44.19 points or 0.11 percent to close at 39,774.92, while China's Shanghai Composite ( rose 22.07 points or 0.62 percent to 3,581.86. India's S&P BSE SENSEX (^BSESN) was nearly flat, dipping 13.53 points or 0.02 percent to 82,186.81, while Indonesia's IDX Composite (^JKSE) fell 53.46 points or 0.72 percent to 7,344.74. South Korea's KOSPI (^KS11) tumbled 40.87 points or 1.27 percent to 3,169.94, and Taiwan's TWSE (^TWII) slumped 352.64 points or 1.51 percent to 22,987.92. Middle East In the Middle East, Egypt's EGX 30 (^CASE30) dropped 326.30 points or 0.96 percent to 33,803.30, while Israel's TA-125 (^ slipped 1.26 points or 0.04 percent to 3,116.10. Africa
