Latest news with #JayatiBharadwaj
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Economy Has Been 'Relying on Kindness of Strangers' For 3 Years
Jayati Bharadwaj, FX and macro strategist at TD Securities, breaks down why the US Dollar has remained weak, even as other economic indicators are strong amid Trump's trade war. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
24-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US dollar isn't behaving like a safe haven asset: FX strategist
The US dollar (DX=F, sees pullbacks on Wednesday as lawmakers continue to deliberate over President Trump's tax bill and the "Sell America" trade reemerges among investors. TD Securities FX & Macro Strategist Jayati Bharadwaj comes on Catalysts to speak on the dollar's performance as of late and whether it is still behaving like a safe haven asset. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The dollar could lose its crown as an 'unfortunate truth' forces investors to rethink US assets
The US dollar is under pressure as global investors grow increasingly wary of America's fiscal trajectory. Once seen as a reliable safe haven, the greenback is now facing renewed skepticism, with strategists telling Yahoo Finance that capital is shifting toward undervalued currencies in Europe and Asia amid expectations of foreign stimulus and more attractive valuations abroad. The US Dollar Index ( — which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc — has dropped more than 8% since the start of the year, underperforming every other G10 currency, according to Bloomberg data. It ranks as one of the worst-performing asset classes of the year, alongside Brent Crude (BZ=F). Since April, the index has dipped below the crucial technical and psychological level of 100, hitting lows not seen since 2022. "Investors now have a very strong reason to hedge their long US asset exposure, and the dollar is no longer behaving like a safe haven," Jayati Bharadwaj, FX and macro strategist at TD Securities, told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "I would say it's actually following much more of an emerging market playbook, which is the unfortunate truth that we need to come to terms with." Bharadwaj cited mounting US debt and policy uncertainty as key catalysts behind the dollar's decline. Last week's credit rating downgrade by Moody's only deepened market concerns. Adding to the fiscal anxiety, the House of Representatives on Thursday approved President Trump's sweeping tax reform package, otherwise known as the president's "big, beautiful bill." The proposal includes significant cuts to both individual and corporate tax rates and is projected to increase the national debt by $4 trillion over the next decade. The legislation now moves to the Senate for consideration. "The volatility associated with the current administration's policies is a big confidence shock, which is actually forcing other countries to step up their local fiscal policies and work on fostering stronger trade relationships amongst themselves," Bharadwaj said, noting that it ultimately reduces foreign nations' dependence on the US. As a result, Bharadwaj expects the dollar to keep weakening gradually, with another 5% drop likely by year-end. A weaker dollar adds to inflation by driving up import costs, an issue compounded by tariffs that remain near their highest levels since World War II. "The dollar going down is going to add to inflation pressure and reduce purchasing power," Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told Yahoo Finance. Gordon highlighted that during the 2021 to 2023 inflation surge, the dollar's strength acted as a partial hedge against rising prices. But with the greenback now weakening and inflation still elevated, that protective buffer is fading. On top of that, tariffs have added further pressure by reducing capital inflows, or the money coming into the US from foreign investors seeking American assets. The shift comes at a challenging time for US policymakers, with President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement fueling concerns of a broader "sell America" trade, in which US stocks fall, the dollar weakens, and Treasury yields rise. While some of those worries eased after a partial tariff rollback, Deutsche Bank said foreign investors remain wary of America's fiscal trajectory. Read more: How to protect your money during turmoil, stock market volatility To be sure, despite recent weakness, strategists say the US dollar remains dominant in global finance, accounting for about 80% of trade finance and nearly half of global bond issuance. Charles Schwab's Gordon described current softness as a "positioning adjustment" driven by sentiment and portfolio shifts rather than fundamental changes, especially after the dollar's strong bull run since 2011. "The scale is still very much in favor of the dollar, disproportionately so," he said. TD's Bharadwaj echoed this view, calling the recent moves a "healthy recalibration." "For the longest time, most markets became a pure US move and a pure dollar bet," she said. "Now you can actually start to focus on local, idiosyncratic stories." While she doesn't expect the US to lose its "crown" currency status, she noted that "other princes and princesses" may start to take the stage. Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Recorder
02-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Yen tumbles with BOJ on hold; dollar rises
NEW YORK: The yen sank on Thursday as the Bank of Japan lowered growth forecasts due to US tariffs and left interest rates on hold, while the dollar continued its bounceback on growing optimism about trade deals between the United States and its partners. Volume was thinner than normal, as many international markets were closed on Thursday for the May Day holiday. The Japanese currency dropped to a four-week low against the dollar, which rose 1.7% to 145.45 yen. Against the euro, the yen dropped to a one-month low, with the single currency last up 1.2% at 164.02 yen. The BOJ's decision to hold interest rates was unanimous and anticipated, but investors saw the downgraded outlook as reducing the likelihood of future hikes. It now expects underlying consumer inflation to reach its 2% target around the latter half of fiscal 2026 and onward, pushing back the timing by a year from its previous projection in January. 'People have been banking on the BOJ hiking interest rates, but those expectations have moderated now that the BOJ has revised their growth and inflation forecast lower,' said Jayati Bharadwaj, global FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. The dollar, on the other hand, rose against major currencies such as the euro and sterling, due in part to expectations of deals with many of the country's trading partners including China. Those deals could soften the blow of US tariffs on most goods. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer had said on Wednesday that no official talks were happening with China. The euro fell to a three-week trough versus the greenback and was last down 0.5% at $1.1273. Sterling also fell, down 0.3% at $1.3293. 'We have been flagging that the dollar has potential to bounce back in the near term, which could potentially give better entry levels to sell it again,' said TD's Bharadwaj.
Reuters
16-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canadian dollar rallies as BoC pauses interest rate cuts
TORONTO, April 16 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as the greenback posted broad-based declines and the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate cutting campaign. The loonie was trading 0.6% higher at 1.3875 per U.S. dollar, or 72.07 U.S. cents, moving back in reach of the five-month high it touched on Monday at 1.3827. The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here. The BoC held its benchmark rate at 2.75%, its first pause after seven consecutive cuts, and said that the uncertainty around U.S. tariffs made it impossible to issue regular economic forecasts. Investors see a roughly 50% chance the central bank will return to easing at its next policy decision on June 4 and expect two further cuts in total by year-end. The U.S. dollar (.DXY), opens new tab resumed its recent decline against a basket of major currencies as traders waited to see if U.S. President Donald Trump's administration reaches new trading agreements with partners. "The BoC's hold is providing some support to the loonie," strategists at TD Securities, including Jayati Bharadwaj, said in a note. "In the absence of the trade spat between Canada and US worsening and Trump diverting attention to China, we can expect better price action in CAD and positioning there has been consistently improving." Speculators have reduced their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar to the lowest since October, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose 1.8% to $62.45 a barrel after Washington issued new sanctions targeting Chinese importers of Iranian oil. Canadian bond yields were mixed across the curve. The 10-year was up less than one basis point at 3.121% after earlier touching an eight-day low at 3.078%.
