Latest news with #JeffBuchbinder
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Investor optimism rolls over another geopolitical catalyst: Morning Brief
It doesn't take much to spook investors. For several months the broader macro environment has functioned like a grab bag of justifications to close out and watch from afar. Trade uncertainty, an unmoving Fed, and turmoil in the Middle East have kept money on the sidelines. And by the time you are reading this, those storylines will have already changed. Sensitivity to global events has also worked in investors' favor. It takes a lot to get the market down for a 10 count, even if it trips and even falls on a semi-regular basis. Being unfazed has yielded powerful returns as the S&P approaches the prior highs of February. But for as much as fickleness has defined Wall Street, optimism has a track record of rolling over negative catalysts in a year full of them. For those surprised at how resilient the markets have been despite the swirling geopolitical headlines, analysts have pointed to several factors that are motivating investors. Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note on Monday that the parties behind the hostilities between Israel and Iran are likely interested in keeping the conflict contained, and that investors are also banking on limited disruption of oil production facilities. Jitters over the potential for a widening of the violence appeared to have been calmed amid a report that Tehran is looking to deescalate the conflict. On Monday, oil prices eased lower in a new sign that investors don't believe a protracted war — and fresh energy pricing pressures — will ensue this summer. As for the Fed, many central bank watchers expect officials to stick with their cautious approach, even or perhaps especially because of heightened uncertainty. Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote in a note on Monday that the Fed is likely to adhere to a plan of "patience" and "wait and see" as officials analyze how the mix of higher tariffs and tax cuts will impact the economy. The Fed isn't coming to the rescue, at least for a few more months. But as far as the stock market is concerned, even with mounting external events, there isn't much that needs rescuing. Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks rally and oil dips after report says Iran is looking to de-escalate its conflict with Israel
U.S. stocks rose Monday despite escalating attacks between Israel and Iran. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all ended higher after falling Friday. The price of crude oil also fell almost 2% after a report claimed Iran is looking to negotiate with Israel to end the conflict. Despite several confrontations between Israel and Iran over the weekend and on Monday that have left hundreds of civilians dead, investors in the U.S. seemed to shrug off the escalating tensions in the Middle East as stocks rebounded to start the week. In fact, after falling Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average closed 0.75% higher Monday, while the S&P 500 increased 0.94%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.52%. Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, says the U.S. market is holding up well owing to a confluence of factors, including that both Iran and Israel have an 'interest in keeping the conflict contained.' 'There are several key questions to answer before we know how stocks will handle this geopolitical shock, including how much of Iran's energy infrastructure will be impaired and for how long, whether Iran's nuclear capabilities will be completely wiped out, and whether the current regime will remain in power,' says Buchbinder. Though U.S. crude oil surged Friday following Israel's initial attack, it fell almost 2% Monday, after the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran wants to negotiate an end to the conflict with Israel. That said, the two countries continued to attack each other's energy facilities Monday, and Israel struck the headquarters of Iran's state television live on air. The conflict in the Middle East is adding yet another layer of uncertainty to the economy, at a time when President Donald Trump's tariff policies are causing concern, as are the White House's immigration policies and the GOP tax bill. Investors will also be watching the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Though officials have signaled a hold on interest rates is likely, all eyes will be on Chair Jerome Powell for information on when the central bank could move. This story was originally featured on
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks fall as oil prices surge following Israel attack on Iran
Stocks are down on Friday, with oil prices surging in the wake of the Israel's military strike on Iran. The S&P 500 slid 48 points, or 0.5%, to 5,998 points in early trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 559 points, or 1.3%, to 42,409 points. The Nasdaq Composite shed 0.8%. The market slide comes after Israel launched strikes on Iran's nuclear sites and other targets early Friday, the start of what Israel said could be a days-long attack. Iran responded by launching over 100 drones, which Israel claimed it was able to mostly intercept. The strikes come as President Trump seeks to rein in Iran's nuclear capabilities. The U.S. and Iran are scheduled to meet Sunday in Oman, as part of a series on ongoing talks. "The initial market response has been largely contained, but the risk of a broader military conflict certainly cannot be dismissed," said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. "Iran has begun to retaliate and will continue to do so. This phase of the conflict will likely last several weeks at least." The oil market had an even stronger reaction on Friday, with U.S. benchmark crude oil increasing $4.73 or 6.9% to $72.77 per barrel. Bent crude, the international standard, climbed $4.58 to $73.94 per barrel. If the conflict between Israel and Iran continues, it could impact the flow of oil from Iran, which is one of the largest producers of the natural resource in the world. One concern would be if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, through which millions of barrels of oil flow each day. But that's probably off the table for now, according to Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial. "We think this is unlikely for now given Iran's need to maintain oil sales to China," Kerr said in an email. In a research note, Capital Economics economists said the risk to oil prices is "more balanced" than previously thought. The Middle East tensions also affect markets beyond oil, said Joy Yang, head of index product management at MarketVector Indexes, noting a decline in Bitcoin prices and a rally in defense stocks, as airline stocks fall. Airlines, which use a lot of fuel as part of their business and need their customers feeling confident enough to travel, experienced sharp losses. United Airlines lost 5.2%, Delta Air Lines gave up 4.5% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings dropped 2.9%. Boeing shares are down 1% after a 5% dip Thursday following a crash in India involving one of its 787-8 Dreamliner planes. Video shows Air India plane crashing in Ahmedabad Air India plane crashes shortly after takeoff, carrying more than 240 people Remembering the Beach Boys' Brian Wilson Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Resurgence of ‘America First' Trade Forges New Equities Leader
(Bloomberg) -- An unlikely cohort has climbed to the top of the S&P 500 Index's leaderboard, powered by a resurgence of the America First trade this week as tariff tensions eased, at least for now. As Coastline Erodes, One California City Considers 'Retreat Now' How a Highway Became San Francisco's Newest Park Maryland's Credit Rating Gets Downgraded as Governor Blames Trump Power-Hungry Data Centers Are Warming Homes in the Nordics NYC Commuters Brace for Chaos as NJ Transit Strike Looms Industrials, the companies that manufacture goods and transport them, leaped ahead of the 10 other major sectors in the benchmark on a year-to-date basis following the US and China's trade truce at the start of the week. They were lingering in 3rd place as recently as a week ago. Those stocks are up 7.8% for the year, while the S&P 500 is roughly flat. It's unusual for the group, stacked with companies that have steady but slow-growing businesses, to outperform the broader market — they haven't done so on an annual basis in the past decade. The shift toward the segment — with General Electric Co. and Deere & Co. among firms leading the charge — is a bet that waning trade friction will help the US economy rebound after a feeble first quarter. 'The whole 'America First, Buy US' is a really pro-industrial narrative,' said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. 'A healthy bull market is led by the cyclical sectors that benefit most from economic growth,' referring to industrials, utilities and financials outperforming this year. In the past week, renewed optimism around the American economy has propelled US stocks ahead of benchmarks in Europe, China and Mexico. It's part of a strengthening risk-on tone that has some market-watchers and options pros positioning for the S&P 500 to eclipse its February record high in the coming months, after approaching a bear market just weeks ago. Recession Specter Whether the cohort will continue to lead gains remains to be seen, given the specter of an economic recession still looming in the horizon. The risk of a slowdown in growth also remains high given that tariffs can disrupt businesses and stoke inflation. This week, billionaire Steve Cohen said the chance of a recession in the US now stands at about 45%, noting that there is already 'significant slowing growth.' LPL's Buchbinder also warns about continuing trade risk, which is the reason he cited when he recently downgraded industrials to neutral. 'The sector is pricing in a lot of optimism now,' he said. 'Even though the trade risk is lower now, it is still there and you cannot dismiss it.' Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research says the rally in industrials is getting stretched, noting the sector now trades for nearly 23 times forward earnings, much higher than its 10-year average of about 19. Path Ahead But for now, industrials and utilities are the only sectors that are in the green since the S&P 500 hit an all-time high in February. Industrials have been outperforming the broader benchmark over the past 100 days after generally trailing it over comparable stretches since 2015, according to analysis from DataTrek. HSBC Holdings Plc strategists said the earnings expectations for economically sensitive companies seem to have bottomed out, suggesting a recovery is on the horizon. Bank of America Corp. strategists, meanwhile, said that investors calling for 'the end of US exceptionalism,' may be forced back in and further feed the rally. As long as there's no major shock on the trade front, Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, sees industrials and other cyclical stocks continuing to outperform. Tentarelli upgraded industrials, along with semiconductors and banks to overweight earlier this week, citing the tariff pause between the US and China. 'Industrials and banks are the two sectors you want to buy if you believe the economy is either going to accelerate or not slow down as much as expected,' he said. Cartoon Network's Last Gasp DeepSeek's 'Tech Madman' Founder Is Threatening US Dominance in AI Race Microsoft's CEO on How AI Will Remake Every Company, Including His As Nuclear Power Makes a Comeback, South Korea Emerges a Winner Why Obesity Drugs Are Getting Cheaper — and Also More Expensive ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Market: What technicals are signaling about stock gains to come
US stocks (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) rallied with a vengeance on Monday after US and Chinese officials agreed to a 90-day tariff truce. Today, the market has a mixed response to the April CPI (Consumer Price Index) report that saw the annual inflation rate ease to 2.3%. LPL Financial Chief Equity Strategist Jeff Buchbinder sits down on Catalysts to talk more about what stock technicals and fundamentals are signaling. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here.
