Latest news with #JensenHuang
Yahoo
38 minutes ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Nvidia's China Comeback Could Propel Its Stock To New Heights
Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton maintained a Buy rating on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and raised the price forecast from $160 to $200 on Wednesday. Nvidia is preparing to resume shipments of its H20 GPUs to China after the U.S. government approved export license filings, according to CEO Jensen Huang, Bolton noted. The green light comes after April's export controls blocked $2.5 billion in H20 shipments during fiscal first-quarter 2026 and halted another $8 billion in scheduled deliveries for fiscal second-quarter 2026, the analyst had already generated $4.6 billion in H20 revenue before the license requirement took effect and recorded a $4.5 billion charge for H20 inventory and purchase obligations in first-quarter, he told. Bolton responded by sharply raising his financial forecasts. He now conservatively projects $3 billion in H20 shipments per quarter over the coming quarters and estimates that previously written-down H20 inventory could generate nearly 100% gross margin when sold. Bolton also sees additional upside from Nvidia's expected launch of Blackwell GPU variants tailored for the Chinese market—B30 and B40/RTX 6000D—with performance estimated at ~75% of the H20. These variants, priced between $6,500 and $8,000 (versus $10,000–$12,000 for H20), are reportedly in high demand, with over $1 billion in orders already placed, he noted. Volume shipments could begin as early as August or September, he said. Reflecting these developments, Bolton increased his fiscal third-quarter and fourth-quarter 2026 revenue estimates by $4 billion each, fiscal 2027 revenue estimate to $265.0 billion and EPS to $6.20 (from $250.0 billion and $5.80), fiscal 2026 revenue to $202.6 billion and EPS to $4.42 (from $194.6 billion and $4.17). Bolton introduced fiscal 2028 estimates with $315.0 billion in revenue and EPS of $7.25, including $20 billion from China data center GPU sales Bolton noted Nvidia is well-positioned to recapture lost sales and gain further traction in China, even under export restrictions, thanks to rapid product adaptation and sustained demand from Chinese tech firms. NVDA Price Action: NVDA stock is trading lower by 0.40% to $170.02 at last check on Wednesday. Photo via Shutterstock Latest Ratings for NVDA Date Firm Action From To Mar 2022 Goldman Sachs Reinstates Neutral Feb 2022 Summit Insights Group Downgrades Buy Hold Feb 2022 Mizuho Maintains Buy View More Analyst Ratings for NVDA View the Latest Analyst Ratings UNLOCKED: 5 NEW TRADES EVERY WEEK. Click now to get top trade ideas daily, plus unlimited access to cutting-edge tools and strategies to gain an edge in the markets. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? NVIDIA (NVDA): Free Stock Analysis Report This article Why Nvidia's China Comeback Could Propel Its Stock To New Heights originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Forbes
40 minutes ago
- Business
- Forbes
Allowing The Nvidia H20 Into China Is A Good Start — But Not Enough
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks alongside U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in April ... More 2025. (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images) U.S. export policy around advanced semiconductors — particularly Nvidia's H20 and Blackwell-class AI chips — has created a growing debate about how to balance national security and economic competitiveness. None of this is new to me, as I dealt with export controls during my time at AMD and have written about earlier export restrictions placed on Nvidia by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security. (Note that Nvidia is an advisory client of my firm, Moor Insights & Strategy.) In short, I support allowing Nvidia to sell the H20 and future de-tuned Blackwell variants directly to China for non-military use. Further, I support allowing full-featured Blackwells to be exported for datacenters in the Middle East owned by non-Chinese cloud service providers, starting with AWS, Microsoft, Google and Oracle, as well as vendors of on-prem equipment like Dell Technologies, Cisco, HPE and Lenovo when outfitting smaller CSPs. This infrastructure should be eligible for use even by Chinese civilian customers. All of this should be carried out under strict know-your-customer protocols. I believe this position balances the need to limit military AI proliferation by China while avoiding self-defeating protectionism that erodes American market leadership and accelerates Chinese alternatives. I've publicly said that it's better to sell chips with strict controls than to sit back and watch Huawei take market share. History shows Huawei's ability to become a juggernaut across different areas of tech — witness its 30% share of the global market for carrier networking equipment. If we continue down the path of maximum restriction, we risk enabling Huawei to build its own AI 'Belt and Road' in Asia and beyond. By contrast, letting Nvidia compete under reasonable safeguards would ensure that American standards — not Chinese ones — define the next wave of global AI. Background: U.S. Export Controls And The H20 GPU The Biden Administration imposed sweeping restrictions on AI chip exports to China through regulatory frameworks such as the October 7, 2022 Commerce Department rule and the follow-up interim final rule of October 17, 2023. The Biden Administration added worldwide controls in the January 2025 framework known as the 'AI Diffusion Rule.' These rules defined performance thresholds that covered products such as Nvidia's A100, launched in 2020, and were intended to limit proliferation of frontier AI hardware. Nvidia's H100, H200 and other advanced GPUs were blocked, but the H20 was designed to comply with the new rules with plenty of room to spare — falling well within the thresholds of the BIS 'green zone' and thus not requiring a license or notice before shipping. While critics argue that this is a loophole, the rules were designed to encourage sales of green-zone products like the H20. In December 2023, Biden's Commerce Secretary, Gina Raimondo, stated that Nvidia 'can, will and should sell AI chips' such as the H20 — while reserving the highest-performing products for the U.S. and its allies. After a slow start, H20 sales gradually picked up, because the product is a workhorse for workloads such as recommender systems, consumer internet and chatbots. Earlier this year, however, the Trump Administration froze further sales of the H20 through a process called an 'is informed' letter — not a regulation — instructing Nvidia to halt until further notice. In the wake of the U.S.–China trade and export negotiations of the past few months, the Trump Administration has indicated that H20 sales can resume, subject to notice and license requirements. The new policy is still much more strict than the Biden Administration's — which allowed sales without any notice — but it will allow Nvidia to compete on the ground with China's national champion, Huawei. Criticism Of Nvidia Exports — Versus The Reality I See Some China trade hawks argue against allowing H20 sales to China or enabling CSPs or other vendors to serve Chinese clients with cutting-edge AI compute in the cloud. The claim is that China may obtain enough H20s to support the development of multiple AI superclusters. Other arguments hold that the current export framework is too flimsy, making enforcement difficult, or suggesting that it's bad (i.e., low-margin) business for Nvidia while simultaneously strengthening Huawei's domestic alternatives. But the concern that U.S.-designed chips may end up supporting Chinese military ambitions overlooks China's own immense stockpile of AI chips (such as the Huawei Ascend) and the control mechanisms already available through cloud service providers or even the vendors for non-cloud superclusters required to create a leading-edge AGI frontier model. Because they are low-powered enough to operate in the BIS 'green zone,' H20s are already available to CSPs in China — as they should be to keep those Chinese companies happily using U.S. technology. Meanwhile, civilian use of more advanced GPUs is both separable and traceable when routed through CSPs or vendors for on-premises or private-cloud infrastructure or smaller CSPs — based in the U.S. or allied nations — that operate under strict KYC requirements. For example, these protocols already enable U.S. cloud infrastructure providers to serve Chinese customers from U.S.-based datacenters, making the same approach feasible for deployments in the Middle East or elsewhere. Other mechanisms, such as U.S.-provided and -approved operating system software, or U.S.-provided service and support, can provide reasonable assurances as well. Further, claims about weak enforcement fail to acknowledge the physical and operational security present in the Gulf region. Data campuses in places like the UAE — such as the planned 5-gigawatt AI campus — are hardened, auditable, and have well-developed telemetry systems that enable real-time visibility into GPU workloads. This makes diversion significantly harder than assumed. Five years ago, the fungible matter in question was a card; now it is a complete rack in Nvidia's new B300 world. As for the 'bad business for Nvidia' part, it's important to recognize that even low-margin volume helps sustain Nvidia's manufacturing scale, and finances the R&D pipeline that drives U.S. leadership in AI. I also believe the newest Blackwell derivative for the China market will have a better cost basis due to its memory architecture. Starving U.S. companies — and not just Nvidia — of addressable markets only weakens the broader national-security and economic foundations they support. And every yuan of AI spending that goes to Nvidia is a yuan that doesn't go to Huawei to reinvest into R&D, create better AGI sooner and spread it around the world — as it successfully did with its equipment for the telecom market. The KYC-Controlled Export Model The UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are key players in proposed GPU deployments, have no incentive to smuggle chips — they are resource-rich nations focused on energy exports, not illicit trade in AI hardware. Moreover, U.S.-based operators such as Microsoft and Amazon, even when deploying infrastructure abroad, still fall under U.S. export enforcement jurisdictions. The logistical difficulty of smuggling datacenter-grade hardware is often underestimated; these GPUs arrive preassembled into racks that can weigh over 3,600 pounds, making physical diversion highly impractical. David Sacks, the Trump Administration's AI and crypto czar, made some good points when he said on his All-In podcast, 'Just look at market share. If we have like 80 to 90% market share, that's winning. . . . If (China) has 80% market share, then we're in big trouble.' This framework can ensure that Chinese customers that access compute through Middle Eastern CSPs do so for civilian purposes only: e-commerce, LLM inference, logistics and so on. With military or frontier model training barred effectively, such usage does not create a meaningful national security threat, in my opinion. Strategic And Economic Considerations One major consideration is the potential for Huawei to dominate AI infrastructure across the Belt and Road Initiative countries if the U.S. restricts Nvidia's ability to compete. The Ascend AI stack — Huawei's response to Nvidia's CUDA stack — is maturing rapidly. Blocking U.S. exports will unintentionally provide Huawei with captive market share in the Gulf region and South America, thereby accelerating its learning curve and scale. Second, diffusion of American AI hardware, software, and frameworks is how the U.S. has historically maintained technological supremacy. Broad adoption of U.S. technology such as CUDA makes it difficult for alternative ecosystems to take hold. In that sense, the CUDA software stack is not just a performance accelerator — it's a strategic lever. Widespread diffusion of Nvidia's technology means technology lock-in that benefits U.S. interests. Another underappreciated factor is mutual dependency. While the U.S. continues to rely on Chinese rare earths and materials, China remains reliant on Nvidia's hardware and software stack. Chinese enterprises overwhelmingly prefer U.S. chips over domestic alternatives, when they can get them, due to performance and software maturity. Accelerating the decoupling of supply chains by denying access to Nvidia exports may ultimately backfire by pushing China toward full self-sufficiency. Policy Recommendations Rather than blanket bans, U.S. policy makers should implement targeted measures that mitigate risk without ceding strategic advantage. H20 sales to China should resume, subject to the licensing regime the Trump Administration has adopted. Blackwell GPU exports should be permitted to CSPs from the U.S. or allied nations operating facilities in the Middle East that serve Chinese civilian clients under rigorous KYC mechanisms — or with other safeguards acceptable to BIS, which can enable safe and secure on-prem and private cloud deployments as well. Large systems of concern can maintain detailed telemetry, usage logs and auditable records accessible to U.S. regulators. Export licenses should clearly define prohibited end uses, including military and sensitive non-military applications, along with intelligence-related activities. More generally, national security should be redefined to include market share as a metric — because if the U.S. controls the global AI stack, it inherently retains strategic leverage. Finally, the United States should collaborate with allies to formalize a global KYC enforcement regime for AI, harmonizing standards to prevent backdoor access and creating collective strength in export compliance. Compete With Common-Sense Restrictions, Don't Concede Global Market Share To China U.S. leadership in semiconductors and AI has always been driven by innovation and market scale. Choking off the global market — particularly in regions aligned with U.S. interests — only serves to isolate Nvidia (and other American companies) and subsidize Huawei. China's AI ambitions will continue regardless of U.S. policy. The question is: will they use American technology, or their own? By selling Nvidia solutions to China, can the U.S. get to AGI first? It seems to me that the U.S. government would want that. With CSP-mediated controls, telemetry audits, and export compliance frameworks, I believe we can thread the needle — preventing diversion of cutting-edge AI technology while retaining global relevance. Blocking H20 from China or blocking Blackwell from even CSP-mediated delivery into China-aligned regions would be a strategic mistake. We should lead by selling, not retreating.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Nvidia Stock Jumps as Chipmaker Plans to Resume Sales of Key AI Chip to China
KEY TAKEAWAYS Nvidia said it plans to resume sales of its best-selling H20 AI chip to China, days after CEO Jensen Huang met with President Donald Trump. 'The U.S. government has assured NVIDIA that licenses will be granted, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries soon,' the chipmaker said. Nvidia shares jumped in Tuesday said it plans to resume sales of its best-selling H20 AI chip to China, days after CEO Jensen Huang met with President Donald Trump. Shares of Nvidia jumped more than 4% Tuesday following the news. Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), other chip companies, and Nvidia partners including Super Micro Computer (SMCI) also rose. (Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.) "NVIDIA is filing applications to sell the NVIDIA H20 GPU again,' the company said in a blog post late Monday. 'The U.S. government has assured NVIDIA that licenses will be granted, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries soon,' the chipmaker said. The green light from Washington marks a big win for Nvidia, as analysts had said the restrictions would send sales in China, a key market, down to "zero." The AI chipmaker said in May that it took a $4.5 billion charge in the fiscal first quarter associated with export curbs imposed by the Trump administration on sales of its H20 products to China. The H20 chips are less powerful than Nvidia's newer ones and had been tailored to meet prior export limits for the Chinese market. Separately, Nvidia announced a new RTX PRO AI chip that it said was 'fully compliant' for the Chinese market. The White House didn't immediately respond to an Investopedia request for comment. Nvidia shares entered Tuesday up by more than a fifth this year. This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent share price values. Read the original article on Investopedia
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wedbush Reaffirms Outperform on Nvidia (NVDA) — AI Demand Remains Strong
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is a . On July 11, Wedbush reiterated the stock as 'Outperform'. The firm said its checks show high demand for Nvidia products. 'We saw demand for both NVDA GPUs [graphics processing unit] and AI accelerators lifting.' Analysts on Wall Street currently have a consensus 'Buy' rating on the stock. The average price target of $175 implies a 6% upside; however, the Street-high target of $250 implies an upside of 52%. In other news, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will be holding a media briefing in Beijing on July 16. The meeting marks his second visit to the country after his trip in April, where he highlighted the importance of the Chinese market. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) specializes in AI-driven solutions, providing high-performance GPUs and platforms that power data centers, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and cloud services. While we acknowledge the potential of NVDA as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: and Disclosure: None. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Jensen Huang Just Delivered Massive News for Nvidia Investors
Key Points Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says that the company will be granted the licenses required to export its H20 AI chips to Chinese customers. The company was losing a chunk of revenue because of the restrictions on the export of its chips to China. Nvidia investors can now expect stronger-than-expected growth from the company this year. 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia › When Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) released its fiscal 2026 first-quarter results (for the three months ended April 27) a couple of months ago, the company had bad news in store for investors as it was losing business in a key market thanks to export restrictions. Specifically, Nvidia pointed out in its previous earnings report that it bore a multibillion-dollar charge because of its inability to ship its H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China. Its revenue during the quarter took a hit, while the guidance could have been much better if there were no restrictions on the sales of its chips to Chinese customers. But now, it looks like Nvidia is set to resume its sales in China. Let's take a closer look at this latest development that could give its business a big boost. Jensen Huang says that Nvidia is set to start shipments of its H20 chips to China Nvidia was informed by the U.S. government in April that it needs a license to export its China-specific H20 chip into that market. The company took a $4.5 billion charge on account of the excess inventory of the unsold H20 chips that it was left with. Nvidia also lost $2.5 billion in revenue because of this restriction during the quarter. Even worse, the company said that it will lose $8 billion in H20 revenue in the ongoing quarter thanks to the restrictions. However, a blog published by Nvidia on July 14 states that CEO Jensen Huang met with President Donald Trump and other policymakers, giving an update that the company "is filing applications to sell the NVIDIA H20 GPU again." More importantly, the blog points out that the U.S. government assured Nvidia that licenses will be granted and the company hopes for deliveries to begin soon. Nvidia shipped $4.6 billion worth of H20 processors to China in fiscal Q1 before the export restrictions kicked in. Including the lost sales during the quarter, Nvidia's Chinese revenue would have been just over $7 billion. And when we consider the $8 billion revenue that the company was expecting from this market in fiscal Q2, Nvidia's revenue from that market would have hit $15 billion in the first half of the current fiscal year. The Chinese business, therefore, was on track to generate $30 billion in annual revenue for the company this year before it was hamstrung by the export controls. Analysts are expecting $200 billion in revenue from Nvidia in the current fiscal year. That figure could have been significantly higher if the company were allowed to uninterruptedly sell its H20 processors into the Chinese market. However, Nvidia was caught in the crosshairs of the tariff-fueled trade war between the U.S. and China. The good part is that both countries show\ signs of easing restrictions on exports of key products, and it looks like Nvidia has benefited from the same. As such, it won't be surprising to see the chipmaker finish the current fiscal year in a stronger-than-expected position. The return of the lost business could be a tailwind for the stock in the second half of 2025 We already saw how much revenue Nvidia could have minted from China in the current fiscal year. Now that the company is set to receive licenses to export its chips, there is a good chance that it could get back that lost revenue. Nvidia is going to be in a position to fulfill the $8 billion worth of orders that it had lined up for fiscal Q2, along with the $2.5 billion worth of shipments that it was unable to fulfill in the previous quarter. This could help Nvidia generate more revenue than what Wall Street is anticipating in the current fiscal year. Assuming that Nvidia manages to sustain the run rate of its H20 business in China in the second half of the fiscal year, it could generate $15 billion in revenue from that market. Analysts at equity research firm Bernstein estimate that Nvidia has the potential to generate incremental revenue of $15 billion to $20 billion in the current fiscal year once it gets the H20 export licenses. What's more, the company could generate an additional $0.40 to $0.50 per share in earnings based on the incremental revenue estimate. In the end, it can be concluded that Nvidia could deliver stronger-than-expected growth in fiscal 2026, which it can sustain in the long run as well thanks to the opportunities it is witnessing in other countries. Investors, therefore, have another reason to buy Nvidia stock right now as a potential acceleration in its revenue and earnings growth following this latest development could lead to more upside. Should you buy stock in Nvidia right now? Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $680,559!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,005,670!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,053% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 180% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 15, 2025 Harsh Chauhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Jensen Huang Just Delivered Massive News for Nvidia Investors was originally published by The Motley Fool
