Latest news with #JeremyRobb
CTV News
09-07-2025
- Automotive
- CTV News
U.S. used car prices surge as tariffs drive market volatility
'Sale' is spelled out in the open hoods of used cars at a Toyota dealership on Sept. 18, 2010. (AP / Reed Saxon) A gauge of U.S. used vehicle prices sold at wholesale auctions that proved predictive ahead of the inflation surge following the COVID pandemic is climbing again, last month notching its largest annual increase in nearly three years. The rise comes amid ongoing vehicle price and sales volatility connected to auto tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 1.6 per cent in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis and surged 6.3 per cent from a year earlier, the largest year-over-year increase since August 2022, according to data released on Tuesday. At 208.5, the index has been trending upward for a year and is now at its highest since October 2023. 'Wholesale appreciation trends have been more volatile over Q2 as tariffs really impacted new sales and supply, which impacted the used marketplace as well,' said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, which provides the index. Price pressures typically ease in the second half of the year, but Robb said retail vehicle sales remain 'a bit hotter than prior years' and the supply of vehicles coming off lease into the used-car market has been trending downward, 'two factors which should be fairly supportive of higher values as we move onward.' Trump's 25 per cent tariff on imported autos prompted a surge in new vehicle-buying during the early spring as consumers sought to front-run anticipated price increases from the levies. Sales fell off substantially in May and dropped again in June. Overall inflation has so far defied the predictions of most economists, but many Federal Reserve officials remain convinced some sort of price surge will follow and are hesitant to cut interest rates until satisfied that risk has passed. Manheim's index in recent years has caught the eye of private economists and some Fed officials who saw it as among the early indicators auguring for a more substantial, and long-lasting, bout of inflation as the economy emerged from the pandemic in 2021 and 2022. The index began a sharp climb in late 2020 that persisted for more than a year. By mid-2022, overall U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index had topped 9% and was the highest since the 1980s. Fed Governor Christopher Waller in the fall of 2021 warned against 'selectively ignoring data series - be it used car prices, food and energy prices or household surveys of inflation expectations. All of these series convey important information about the evolution of inflation, and one should exhibit caution in dismissing data as outliers.' At the time, Waller was building the case for interest rate hikes to combat still-building inflation that some of his colleagues considered 'transitory.' Now, though, Waller, who is viewed to be among those Trump is considering as a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, appears more concerned the tariff increases will hurt demand rather than stoke another lasting bout of inflation. Waller said recently he was open to cutting rates as early as the Fed's meeting later in July. --- Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Chris Reese
Reuters
09-07-2025
- Automotive
- Reuters
US used car prices surge as tariffs drive market volatility
July 8 (Reuters) - A gauge of U.S. used vehicle prices sold at wholesale auctions that proved predictive ahead of the inflation surge following the COVID pandemic is climbing again, last month notching its largest annual increase in nearly three years. The rise comes amid ongoing vehicle price and sales volatility connected to auto tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 1.6% in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis and surged 6.3% from a year earlier, the largest year-over-year increase since August 2022, according to data released on Tuesday. At 208.5, the index has been trending upward for a year and is now at its highest since October 2023. 'Wholesale appreciation trends have been more volatile over Q2 as tariffs really impacted new sales and supply, which impacted the used marketplace as well,' said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, which provides the index. Price pressures typically ease in the second half of the year, but Robb said retail vehicle sales remain "a bit hotter than prior years" and the supply of vehicles coming off lease into the used-car market has been trending downward, "two factors which should be fairly supportive of higher values as we move onward.' Trump's 25% tariff on imported autos prompted a surge in new vehicle-buying during the early spring as consumers sought to front-run anticipated price increases from the levies. Sales fell off substantially in May and dropped again in June. Overall inflation has so far defied the predictions of most economists, but many Federal Reserve officials remain convinced some sort of price surge will follow and are hesitant to cut interest rates until satisfied that risk has passed. Manheim's index in recent years has caught the eye of private economists and some Fed officials who saw it as among the early indicators auguring for a more substantial, and long-lasting, bout of inflation as the economy emerged from the pandemic in 2021 and 2022. The index began a sharp climb in late 2020 that persisted for more than a year. By mid-2022, overall U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index had topped 9% and was the highest since the 1980s. Fed Governor Christopher Waller in the fall of 2021 warned against "selectively ignoring data series - be it used car prices, food and energy prices or household surveys of inflation expectations. All of these series convey important information about the evolution of inflation, and one should exhibit caution in dismissing data as outliers." At the time, Waller was building the case for interest rate hikes to combat still-building inflation that some of his colleagues considered "transitory." Now, though, Waller, who is viewed to be among those Trump is considering as a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, appears more concerned the tariff increases will hurt demand rather than stoke another lasting bout of inflation. Waller said recently he was open to cutting rates as early as the Fed's meeting later in July.
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
US used car prices surge as tariffs drive market volatility
(Reuters) -A gauge of U.S. used vehicle prices sold at wholesale auctions that proved predictive ahead of the inflation surge following the COVID pandemic is climbing again, last month notching its largest annual increase in nearly three years. The rise comes amid ongoing vehicle price and sales volatility connected to auto tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 1.6% in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis and surged 6.3% from a year earlier, the largest year-over-year increase since August 2022, according to data released on Tuesday. At 208.5, the index has been trending upward for a year and is now at its highest since October 2023. 'Wholesale appreciation trends have been more volatile over Q2 as tariffs really impacted new sales and supply, which impacted the used marketplace as well,' said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, which provides the index. Price pressures typically ease in the second half of the year, but Robb said retail vehicle sales remain "a bit hotter than prior years" and the supply of vehicles coming off lease into the used-car market has been trending downward, "two factors which should be fairly supportive of higher values as we move onward.' Trump's 25% tariff on imported autos prompted a surge in new vehicle-buying during the early spring as consumers sought to front-run anticipated price increases from the levies. Sales fell off substantially in May and dropped again in June. Overall inflation has so far defied the predictions of most economists, but many Federal Reserve officials remain convinced some sort of price surge will follow and are hesitant to cut interest rates until satisfied that risk has passed. Manheim's index in recent years has caught the eye of private economists and some Fed officials who saw it as among the early indicators auguring for a more substantial, and long-lasting, bout of inflation as the economy emerged from the pandemic in 2021 and 2022. The index began a sharp climb in late 2020 that persisted for more than a year. By mid-2022, overall U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index had topped 9% and was the highest since the 1980s. Fed Governor Christopher Waller in the fall of 2021 warned against "selectively ignoring data series - be it used car prices, food and energy prices or household surveys of inflation expectations. All of these series convey important information about the evolution of inflation, and one should exhibit caution in dismissing data as outliers." At the time, Waller was building the case for interest rate hikes to combat still-building inflation that some of his colleagues considered "transitory." Now, though, Waller, who is viewed to be among those Trump is considering as a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, appears more concerned the tariff increases will hurt demand rather than stoke another lasting bout of inflation. Waller said recently he was open to cutting rates as early as the Fed's meeting later in July. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Rises in June as Auto Market Continues To Be Impacted by Tariff-Driven Volatility
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index climbs to 208.5, up 6.3% year over year and 1.6% month over month, reflecting seasonal strength despite tariff-driven volatility. Retail demand remains solid as off-lease supply continues to tighten, supporting higher used-vehicle values. The used-vehicle market is showing signs of normalization and resilience, outperforming the new-vehicle segment in terms of stability. ATLANTA, July 8, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in June compared to May. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) increased to 208.5, representing a 6.3% year-over-year increase and a 1.6% rise above May levels. The seasonal adjustment forced the index higher in the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values fell more than usual following the volatility induced by the tariff announcement. The non-adjusted price in June decreased 1.1% compared to May, which now makes the unadjusted average price higher by 5.1% year over year. "Wholesale appreciation trends have been more volatile over Q2 as tariffs really impacted new sales and supply, which impacted the used marketplace as well," said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. "The Manheim index has generally been rising since last June, and we typically see the strongest changes for the year in the second quarter as the 'spring bounce' comes to an end. As we move through the second half of 2025, it's likely that some of the reported strength in the market tapers, as the year-over-year comparisons are tougher in the back half of the year. Even so, retail sales continue to run a bit hotter than prior years, and off-lease supply into the market is still on a downward path, two factors which should be fairly supportive of higher values as we move onward." Used-Vehicle Market Demonstrates Remarkable Stability Amid Shifting Supply DynamicsThe used-vehicle market continues to demonstrate remarkable stability and resilience, even as the broader automotive landscape experiences shifts in pricing and supply. While the new-vehicle segment has seen more pronounced swings, the used market has remained consistently strong. "Historically, the used market has been incredibly consistent; but the pandemic disrupted much of that consistency, and starting in mid-2020, we saw much more volatility than we'd normally expect," said Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. "What we are seeing in the Manheim Index over the course of the first half of this year suggests we could finally be out of that pattern. Demand has remained steady, but the real change has been in supply. With the acceleration of the new-vehicle market in early Q2, an uptick in trade-ins naturally followed, increasing used inventory. The change in supply-side dynamics is driving the return to normal for the used-vehicle market, and this stability is what we expect to see in the second half of 2025." Weekly MMR Trends Show Elevated DepreciationIn June, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values experienced price declines for each week of the month, with the largest weekly decline occurring in the final week. In that final week, MMR values fell by 0.6%, which was higher than weekly rates earlier in the month. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.3%, higher than normally seen. Those same weeks delivered an average decrease of just 0.6% between 2014 and 2019, indicating depreciation trends were elevated and influenced by higher inventory levels and the volatility from the tariffs over the last quarter. Over the month, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.2%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values this month, yet they were higher than May levels. Against last year, valuation models were down by 0.1 percentage points (10 bps) for MMR retention, though they are higher than June levels seen in 2022 and 2023. The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 57.8% in June, an increase of over 1 percentage point against last month and higher than normally seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 53.1% in June over the last three years. Luxury Segment Leads Year-Over-Year Price GainsAlmost all major market segments were higher for seasonally adjusted prices year over year in June, with the exception of compact cars. Compared to June 2024, the luxury segment rose the most for the fifth month in a row, increasing by 8.8%, with SUVs coming in the second and higher by 6.0% over the last year. Underperforming the industry-wide increase of 6.3%, both mid-size sedans and trucks increased 2.8%, and compact cars showed the worst performance, coming in down 0.1% against last year. All segments were higher compared to the previous month, with the luxury segment rising by 1.2%, while the trucks segment was higher by 1.1%. Both compact cars and SUVs were higher by 1.0%, while mid-size sedans rose 0.8% in the period. Used EV Values Rebound Strongly Year Over YearLooking at the market by powertrain, electric vehicle (EV) values are showing significant gains compared to last year, partly due to the depressed values seen during the comparison period. Wholesale EV values experienced steep declines in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, reaching their lowest point since Q3 2021 in June 2024. Since then, EV values have rebounded, with year-over-year appreciation trends outpacing those of non-EVs for the past three months. In June, EV values were up 12.1% year over year, while non-EVs rose by 5.6%. Month over month, EV values increased by 1.5%, slightly ahead of the 1.4% gain for non-EVs. This rebound is also supported by a broader shift in the used-EV market. Robb noted, "The used-EV market is becoming more diverse, moving beyond a concentration in just a few models like the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3. This growing diversity has contributed to improved values and a more mature used-EV landscape." The used-EV market is set up for a potentially impressive Q3. "With the EV tax credits for new and used vehicles now set to be eliminated at the end of Q3 and supply levels currently tightening, we could see further strength in the used-EV segments in the coming months as consumers rush to take advantage of the credit before it expires," Robb said. Retail Used-Vehicle Sales Dip in June, While Inventory Remains StableAssessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, initial estimates of retail used-vehicle sales in June were down 1.5% compared to May but up year over year by 2%. The average retail listing price for a used vehicle increased 0.3% over the last four weeks. Using estimates of retail used days' supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates June ended at 45 days' supply, unchanged from 45 days at the end of May but down one day from June 2024 at 46 days. New-Vehicle Sales Decline Sharply From MayNew-vehicle sales in June declined 4.2% from last year, and volume was down sharply month over month, falling 14.2% from an elevated level in May, a month that had continued to be influenced by the tariff enactment. The June sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 15.3 million, up 0.3 million from last year's pace and lower than the 15.6 million level in May. Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government fleets declined 3.8% year over year in June, as a smaller increase in rental fleet sales was offset by continued weakness in government and commercial. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining new retail sales were estimated to be down 3.0% from last year, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 12.9 million, down from 13.4 million in May but up from 12.2 million last June. Fleet share was estimated to be 17.6%, down from last year's 18.6% share. Cox Automotive Revisits Used and Wholesale Vehicle Market Forecast and Outlook for 2025As announced on June 25 in its Mid-Year Review, Cox Automotive has revisited its 2025 forecasts. The used market is proving to be much more stable, as expected, with consumers opting for used vehicles due to uncertainty about tariffs remaining at current levels. Cox Automotive projects that used-vehicle sales will reach 20.1 million in 2025, which is an estimated 1.2% increase compared to 2024. Sales growth is expected to remain muted, as retail and wholesale supply will continue to be constrained in the coming year due to lower production during the pandemic and fewer lease maturities returning to the market. With the increased pressure on the cost of new units, used-vehicle values, as measured by the MUVVI, are expected to experience more appreciation in 2025 than seen over the last few years. Before the announcement of tariffs, the forecast had the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index ending December 2025 up 1.4% from the end of 2024, slightly below the long-term average rise of 2.3%. In March, the forecast was revised upward to an increase of 2.1%, due to the condition of the used retail supply and the anticipation that a greater number of consumers will shift from purchasing new vehicles to used ones. Given the volatility observed in the market over the last quarter, coupled with stronger year-over-year comparisons in the latter half of 2025, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is now projected to be 1.8% higher year over year in December 2025, just below its long-term run rate. Read the commentary for more perspective on the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index performance in June and Q2. About Cox Automotive Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders, and fleet owners. The company has 25,000-plus employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital™, and vAuto®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Visit or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook, or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn. View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE Cox Automotive Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
08-06-2025
- Automotive
- Yahoo
Fear of Trump's tariffs sparked a rush on used cars—now prices are easing
Used car prices ticked down slightly last month in spite of uncertainty around tariffs, but buying a new old whip still costs more than it used to. Supersonic air travel gets green light in U.S. after 50-year ban lifted Why you're catching the 'ick' so easily, according to science How to Watch George Clooney's Broadway play 'Good Night, and Good Luck' live for free In April, the average cost for a used vehicle shot up as consumers raced to lock in purchases ahead of potential price hikes driven by President Trump's ongoing trade wars. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index from Cox Automotive, which tracks used car sales in the U.S., showed a 1.4% drop in prices last month, but prices are still up 4% compared with the same time last year. In April, used car prices saw their biggest spike since October 2023. 'While the market continues to digest the impact of tariffs, we could see a bit higher levels of wholesale depreciation over the summer,' Jeremy Robb, Cox's automotive senior director of economic and industry insights, said in the report, while noting that low inventory could act as a counterbalance, driving prices back up. Compared with a year ago, luxury cars saw the biggest price increase at 6.5%, with SUVs close behind with a 5.2% year-over-year increase. Electric vehicle prices were up 3.1% compared with the same time last May. Used car prices in the U.S. have been a telling indicator of market forces in recent years. In the pandemic's early days, supply chain issues constricted the availability of new cars, driving more buyers to the used vehicle market. That demand sent used car prices up, and they mostly stayed that way. In March, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars and car parts, sowing fresh inflation concerns and sending supply chains into chaos again. Trump later eased tariffs for vehicles assembled in the U.S. using foreign parts—a reprieve intended to give U.S. automakers a break while they scramble to determine the feasibility of building domestic supply chains to replace parts sourcing abroad. This post originally appeared at to get the Fast Company newsletter: Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
