Latest news with #JesseKeenan
Bloomberg
19-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Florida's Housing Market Softens as Climate-Related Costs Mount
By and Prashant Gopal Save Florida real estate prices are in decline again — and this time, real estate experts say, the costs of living with climate change may deepen the down phase of the usual boom-and-bust cycle. Sky-high insurance rates and condo fees, stemming in part from extreme weather, are weighing more heavily against the benefits of year-round sunshine and zero income tax, complicating an already tough situation with borrowing costs. The climate cost burden on state homeowners isn't likely to ease soon. 'This is a non-cyclical phenomenon,' said Jesse Keenan, a real estate professor at Tulane University who focuses on climate adaptation. 'This is resetting the baseline values of housing in Florida.'
New York Times
08-05-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
The Government to Stop Tracking the Costs of Extreme Weather
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Thursday it would stop tracking the cost of the country's most expensive disasters, those which cause at least $1 billion in damage. The move would leave insurance companies, researchers and government policymakers without information to help understand the patterns of major disasters like hurricanes, drought or wildfires, and their economic consequences, starting this events are becoming more frequent or severe as the planet grows hotter, although not all disasters are linked to climate change. It's the latest effort from the Trump administration to restrict or eliminate climate research. In recent weeks the administration has dismissed the authors working on the nation's biggest climate assessment, planned to eliminate National Parks grants focused on climate change, and released a budget plan that would cut significantly climate science from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Energy and Defense departments. Researchers and lawmakers criticized Thursday's decision. Jesse M. Keenan, associate professor and director of the Center on Climate Change and Urbanism at Tulane University in New Orleans, said ending the data collection would cripple efforts by federal and state governments to set budgets or make decisions on investment in infrastructure. 'It defies logic,' he said. Without the database, 'the U.S. government's flying blind as to the cost of extreme weather and climate change.' Few institutions can duplicate the kind of information provided by the database, said Virginia Iglesias, a climate researcher at the University of Colorado. 'It's one of the most consistent and trusted records of climate-related economic loss in the country,' she said. 'The power of the database lies in its credibility.' So-called billion-dollar disasters — those with costs that balloon to seven figures are more — have been increasing over time. In the 1980s, when NOAA began compiling these lists, there were just over three per year, on average, when adjusted for inflation. For the period from 2020 to 2024, the average was 23 per year. In total, at least 403 such events have occurred in the United States since 1980. Last year there were 27, a tally second only to 2023 (which had 28). Last year's disasters included hurricanes Helene and Milton, which together caused about $113 billion in damages and more than 250 deaths, a severe hailstorm in Colorado that caused about $3 billion in damages and a yearlong drought across much of the country that caused $5 billion in damages and claimed the lives of more than 100 people from heat exposure. NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information plans to stop tracking these billion-dollar disasters in response to 'evolving priorities, statutory mandates, and staffing changes,' the agency said in an email. When asked, the agency did not say whether another branch of NOAA or federal agency would continue tracking and publicly reporting the price tag of such disasters. The announcement said the agency would make archived data from 1980 to 2024 available. But the dollar amount of disasters from 2025 on, such as the Los Angeles wildfires and their estimated billions of dollars of damage, would not be tracked and reported to the public. 'You can't fix what you don't measure,' said Erin Sikorsky, the director of The Center for Climate and Security. 'If we lose this information about the costs of these disasters, the American people and Congress won't know what risks climate is posting to our country.' Other institutions or agencies would likely be unable to duplicate the data collection because it includes proprietary insurance information that companies are cautious to share, Ms. Sikorsky said. 'It's a pretty unique contribution.'
New York Times
28-04-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
All Authors Working on Flagship U.S. Climate Report Are Dismissed
The Trump administration has dismissed the hundreds of scientists and experts who had been compiling the federal government's flagship report on how global warming is affecting the country. The move puts the future of the report, which is required by Congress and is known as the National Climate Assessment, into serious jeopardy, experts said. Since 2000, the federal government has published a comprehensive look every few years at how rising temperatures will affect human health, agriculture, fisheries, water supplies, transportation, energy production and other aspects of the U.S. economy. The last climate assessment came out in 2023 and is used by state and local governments as well as private companies to help prepare for the effects of heat waves, floods, droughts and other climate-related calamities. On Monday, researchers around the country who had begun work on the sixth national climate assessment, planned for early 2028, received an email informing them that scope of the report 'is currently being re-evaluated' and that all contributors were being dismissed. 'We are now releasing all current assessment participants from their roles,' the email said. 'As plans develop for the assessment, there may be future opportunities to contribute or engage. Thank you for your service.' For some of the authors, that appeared to be a fatal blow to the next report. 'This is as close as it gets to a termination of the assessment,' said Jesse Keenan, a professor at Tulane University who specializes in climate adaptation and was a co-author on the last climate assessment. 'If you get rid of all the people involved, nothing's moving forward.' The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The climate assessment is typically compiled by scientists and expert contributors around the country who volunteer to write the report. It then goes through several rounds of review by 14 federal agencies, as well a public comment period. The entire process is overseen by the Global Change Research Program, a federal group established by Congress in 1990 that is supported by NASA. Under the Trump administration, that process was already facing serious disruptions. This month, NASA canceled a major contract with ICF International, a consulting firm that had been supplying most of the technical support and staffing for the Global Change Research Program, which coordinates work among hundreds of contributors. President Trump has frequently dismissed the risks of global warming. And Russell Vought, the current director of the Office of Management and Budget, wrote before the election that the next president should 'reshape' the Global Change Research Program, becasue its scientific reports on climate change were often used as the basis for environmental lawsuits that constrained federal government actions. Mr. Vought has called the government's largest climate research unit, a division inside the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a source of 'climate alarmism.' During Mr. Trump's first term, his administration tried, but failed, to derail the National Climate Assessment. When the 2018 report came out, concluding that global warming posed an imminent and dire threat, the administration made it public the day after Thanksgiving in an apparent attempt to minimize attention. In February, scientists had submitted a detailed outline of the next assessment to the White House for an initial review. But that review has been on hold and the agency comment period has been postponed. It remains to be seen what happens next with the assessment, which is still mandated by Congress. Some scientists feared that the administration might try to write an entirely new report from scratch that downplays the risks of rising temperatures or contradicts established climate science. 'There may well be a sixth National Climate Assessment,' said Meade Krosby, a senior scientist at the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group and a contributor to the assessment. 'The question is whether it is going to reflect credible science and be of real use to our communities as they prepare for climate change.' Scientists involved in earlier climate assessments have said the report is invaluable for understanding how climate change would affect daily life in the United States. 'It takes that global issue and brings it closer to us,' Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University, said this month. 'If I care about food or water or transportation or insurance or my health, this is what climate change means to me if I live in the Southwest or the Great Plains. That's the value.' Many state and local policymakers, as well as private businesses, rely on the assessment to understand how climate change is affecting different regions of the United States and how they can try to adapt. And while the scientific understanding of climate change and its effects hasn't changed drastically since the last assessment in 2023, Dr. Keenan of Tulane said, there has been a steady progression of research on what communities can do to prepare for worsening wildfires, higher sea levels and other problems exacerbated by rising temperatures. Decision makers forced to refer to the last assessment would be relying on outdated information on what adaptation and mitigation measures really work, scientists said. 'We'd be losing the cornerstone report that is supposed to communicate to the public the risks we face with climate change and how we can move forward,' said Dustin Mulvaney, a professor of environmental studies at San Jose State University who was an author on the southwest regional chapter. 'It's pretty devastating.'
New York Times
24-02-2025
- Business
- New York Times
How Can I Lower My Climate Risk When Buying a House?
A question we get from readers more and more is some version of this: How should the growing risks from climate change affect my decision to buy a house? Or, if I buy a house, where should I buy, and what should I keep in mind? It seems especially urgent now, as insurance costs in some parts of the country have far outstripped the rate of inflation. Here's some advice from experts. What are the concerns? When thinking through your home-buying decision, it's useful to think in terms of two categories of risk, according to Jesse Keenan, a professor at Tulane University who studies the effects of climate change on real estate. The first is what could be called climate shocks. As humans burn more fossil fuels, causing global temperatures to increase, extreme weather events like hurricanes, floods and wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense. That means the risk of your house being damaged or destroyed by a disaster is growing over time. The second category is climate stresses, Dr. Keenan said. More frequent and severe disasters are forcing local governments to spend more on infrastructure — like sea walls, storm pumps, and hardening critical facilities — services that are funded largely through property taxes. 'Taxes are only going up with climate change,' he said. Climate stress also affects the cost of home insurance. The amount of money that households paid for insurance rose faster than inflation between 2014 and 2023, according to data compiled by Benjamin Keys, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, and Philip Mulder, a professor at the University of Wisconsin School of Business. And don't forget the potential effect of climate change on your home's long-term value. Properties in areas at greater risk from climate change 'are also at risk of seeing a thinner pool of buyers,' said Sam Chandan, founding director of the Chen Institute for Global Real Estate at New York University's Stern School of Business. Can I buy somewhere 'safe'? There was a period not long ago when people talked about 'climate havens,' places where some mix of geography, topography and weather patterns meant the risk of climate shocks would be, if not zero, then close to it. As a reporter, I sometimes heard people in Miami say that if the seas rose, they would move someplace safe, like Asheville, N.C. Then Hurricane Helene came for Asheville, emphasizing in the most painful way that no place is immune. But that doesn't mean all properties are equally exposed. Rather than think in binary terms like risky or safe, prospective home buyers should get comfortable with idea of degrees, Dr. Keys said. And exposure to climate risk isn't the only thing to consider. Some cities and towns do a better job of protecting against climate threats, Dr. Chandan said. That can take the form of tougher building standards, which can reduce damage from wildfires or flooding. Does that mean a house is a bad idea now? Not necessarily. Experts stress that homeownership remains, in general, a good way to build wealth. The point is, you should ask questions. Start by assessing the amount of risk facing the property you're considering, according to Sheila Foster, a professor at Columbia University's Climate School. One important thing to do is check whether the property is in a federally designated flood zone. But being outside a flood zone doesn't mean your risk is zero. You should also consider your home's exposure to heat. Neighborhoods with plenty of trees and green space will give you more options during a heat wave, keeping your home cooler in general, and especially if your power fails. If you're looking at buying a condo, ask about the building, Ms. Foster added. Does it use efficient forms of heating? Does it meet recognized standards, like LEED certification? In some places, think twice. Buying a home was never a financial slam-dunk, even before climate change became a growing concern. Any number of things could cause the value of your home to fall: Changes to the neighborhood, or a burst of new home construction nearby. Climate change just adds to the uncertainty. But in some cases, that additional risk may be too much. Dr. Keenan said that in high-risk areas like coastal Florida, he would rent rather than buy. Take the money you would have spent on insurance, maintenance and other costs, and put it into the stock market, he said. 'Your rate of return is going to be greater.' If you're looking at a place facing an existential risk from sea-level rise, like the Florida Keys or the Outer Banks of North Carolina, 'you need to go in really cleareyed,' Dr. Keys said. 'These assets are not there for the long haul.' As for other places, Dr. Keys offered this rule of thumb: Find out how much insurance costs now. Then, consider whether you could still afford your monthly costs if those insurance premiums doubled or tripled. If the answer is no, then maybe don't buy the house.
