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Straits Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Straits Times
STI slips 0.3% despite Singapore's upgraded 2025 growth outlook
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox Across the broader market, gainers beat losers 276 to 241, after 1.4 billion securities worth $1.6 billion were traded. SINGAPORE - Stocks on the local bourse ended lower on Aug 12 for the third consecutive session. The decline occurred despite gains in most regional markets, and an upgrade in Singapore's full-year growth forecast. The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) ended down 0.3 per cent or 12.06 points at 4,220.72. Across the broader market, gainers beat losers 276 to 241, after 1.4 billion securities worth $1.6 billion were traded. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) raised its 2025 growth projection to a range of 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent, from zero to 2 per cent previously. It said the revised forecast reflects better-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year, but cautioned that 'the economic outlook for the rest of the year remains clouded by uncertainty, with the risks tilted to the downside'. The ministry added it will continue to monitor developments in global and domestic economies, and adjust the forecast over the course of the year if needed. UOB associate economist Jester Koh said that 'MTI's assessment of the external demand prospects have turned more optimistic compared with three months ago, reflecting the resilience in the growth performance of most advanced and regional economies' in the first half of 2025. Raising his full-year growth forecast to 2.2 per cent, he noted that the economic outlook was aided by front-loading activities as well as easing trade tensions, as many trading partners – including Japan, South Korea and several Asean economies – managed to reach deals for lower reciprocal tariff rates with the US. Elsewhere in the region, most markets ended higher following US President Donald Trump's decision to extend the trade truce with China, postponing his reciprocal tariffs for another 90 days. This move keeps tariffs at 30 per cent for Chinese goods and 10 per cent for American goods, delaying the plan to increase these to 145 per cent and 125 per cent, respectively. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Luxury items seized in $3b money laundering case handed over to Deloitte for liquidation Business Ninja Van cuts 12% of Singapore workforce after 2 rounds of layoffs in 2024 Singapore NEL resumes service after hours-long power fault; single-track service on Sengkang-Punggol LRT Singapore Plan to base Singapore's F-15 fighter jets in Guam cancelled Singapore Hyflux investigator 'took advantage' of Olivia Lum's inability to recall events: Davinder Singh Singapore Man who stabbed son-in-law to death in Boon Tat Street in 2017 dies, aged 80 Singapore Scoot to launch flights to Chiang Rai, Okinawa, Tokyo-Haneda, boost frequency to other places Singapore Man convicted of stalking woman blasted by judge on appeal for asking scandalous questions in court 'Markets were well-primed for this move, so it was a bit 'meh' on Wall Street yesterday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq flirted with all-time highs,' said Mr Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo Markets. However, the announcement 'seemed to buoy the mood in Asia overnight as the Topix and Nikkei 225 in Tokyo both hit record highs', he added. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 2.2 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 0.3 per cent, and the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.5 per cent. Malaysia's KLCI also inched up, by 0.3 per cent. However, South Korea's Kospi Composite Index fell 0.5 per cent. Back home, the top blue-chip performer was DFI Retail Group. It gained 1.1 per cent to close at US$3.53. At the bottom of the STI was Keppel, which lost 3.1 per cent or 27 cents to end at $8.31. The decline followed news that the company plans to sell M1's telecommunications business to mobile network operator Simba Telecom for $1.43 billion. The transaction is expected to result in a $222 million accounting loss, due mainly to goodwill and intangible assets tied to the telco business.
Business Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Singapore shares slip despite upgraded 2025 growth outlook; STI down 0.3%
[SINGAPORE] Stocks on the local bourse ended lower on Tuesday (Aug 12) for the third consecutive session. The decline occurred despite gains in most regional markets, and an upgrade in Singapore's full-year growth forecast. The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) ended down 0.3 per cent or 12.06 points at 4,220.72. Across the broader market, gainers beat losers 276 to 241, after 1.4 billion securities worth S$1.6 billion were traded. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) raised its 2025 growth projection to a range of 1.5 to 2.5 per cent, from zero to 2 per cent previously. It said the revised forecast reflects better-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year, but cautioned that 'the economic outlook for the rest of the year remains clouded by uncertainty, with the risks tilted to the downside'. The ministry added it will continue to monitor developments in global and domestic economies, and adjust the forecast over the course of the year if needed. UOB associate economist Jester Koh said that 'MTI's assessment of the external demand prospects have turned more optimistic compared to three months ago, reflecting the resilience in the growth performance of most advanced and regional economies' in H1 2025. Raising his full-year growth forecast to 2.2 per cent, he noted that the economic outlook was aided by front-loading activities as well as easing trade tensions, as many trading partners – including Japan , South Korea and several Asean economies – managed to reach deals for lower reciprocal tariff rates with the US. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Elsewhere in the region, most markets ended higher following US President Donald Trump's decision to extend the trade truce with China , postponing his reciprocal tariffs for another 90 days. This move keeps tariffs at 30 per cent for Chinese goods and 10 per cent for American goods, delaying the plan to increase these to 145 per cent and 125 per cent, respectively. 'Markets were well-primed for this move, so it was a bit 'meh' on Wall Street yesterday as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq flirted with all-time highs,' said Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo Markets. However, the announcement 'seemed to buoy the mood in Asia overnight as the Topix and Nikkei 225 in Tokyo both hit record highs', he added. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 2.2 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 0.3 per cent, and the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.5 per cent. Malaysia's KLCI also inched up, by 0.3 per cent. However, South Korea's Kospi Composite Index fell 0.5 per cent. Back home, the top blue-chip performer was DFI Retail Group . It gained 1.1 per cent or US$0.04 to close at US$3.53. At the bottom of the STI was Keppel , which lost 3.1 per cent or S$0.27 to end at S$8.31. The decline followed news that the company plans to sell M1's telecommunications business to mobile network operator Simba Telecom for S$1.43 billion. The transaction is expected to result in a S$222 million accounting loss, due mainly to goodwill and intangible assets tied to the telco business. The trio of local banks ended the day mixed. DBS advanced 0.4 per cent or S$0.21 to S$50.96, UOB was up 0.3 per cent or S$0.12 at S$35.87, while OCBC lost 0.8 per cent or S$0.13 to finish at S$16.75.
Business Times
14-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Economists upgrade 2025 outlook after Q2 GDP turns out better than expected
[SINGAPORE] Several economists have raised their full-year economic outlook after advance estimates of second-quarter gross domestic product beat market expectations amid the 90-day pause in US retaliatory tariffs. This is even as they expect GDP to slow in the second half of 2025, as the boost from the front-loading of economic activities fades. Most economists' forecasts are now at or higher than the upper bound of the official forecast range of '0 to 2 per cent', which the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) set in April, shortly after US President Donald Trump unleashed his 'Liberation Day' tariffs. Among them, Maybank is most bullish with a forecast of 3.2 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent previously. Both Citi and UOB have raised their outlook to 2.1 per cent, from 1.7 per cent; OCBC is also pencilling in 2.1 per cent, but from 1.6 per cent earlier. Barclays has upgraded its forecast to 2 per cent, from 1 per cent. DBS, Oxford Economics and RHB have maintained their outlook at 2 per cent, whereas Standard Chartered has kept it at 1 per cent. The upgrades come after MTI's advance estimates on Monday (Jul 14) showed that Singapore's economy grew 4.3 per cent year on year in Q2, well above the 3.6 per cent that private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg were predicting. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Q1 growth was also revised upwards to 4.1 per cent year on year, from an earlier estimate of 3.9 per cent. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.4 per cent, a turnaround from the 0.5 per cent contraction in Q1. This means Singapore averted a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinkage in economic growth. This brings year-on-year GDP growth for the first half of 2025 to 4.2 per cent. 'Singapore's resilient GDP growth in H1 was supported by front-loading of exports and, to a smaller extent, production in anticipation of further US tariffs,' said UOB associate economist Jester Koh. However, Barclays regional economist Brian Tan noted that the boost may have stemmed from export front-loading around US trade policy 'from other economies going through Singapore' – rather than shipments from Singapore. 'MTI notably did not link front-loading to manufacturing performance in its press release, which suggests policymakers also see limited evidence that front-loading has significantly supported domestic exports from Singapore,' he said. Tan added that MTI's statement 'suggests caution over whether the front-loading boost can sustain'. Specifically, MTI said: 'Looking forward, there remain significant uncertainty and downside risks in the global economy in the second half of 2025, given the lack of clarity over the tariff policies of the US.' The ministry did not change its forecast range but could potentially review it when the next quarterly economic survey is released in August. Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng expects official growth forecast to be raised to 1.5 to 2.5 per cent or higher, noting that Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said last week that the forecast would be revised 'as needed'. Slower growth in H2 Most economists do not expect Singapore's GDP performance to sustain into H2. 'The biggest challenge will come from US trade policy,' said Sheana Yue, an economist at Oxford Economics. Even if the tariff levied on Singapore does not exceed 10 per cent, she said, the city-state's trade-dependent economy 'isn't insulated from the indirect effects of higher global tariffs'. 'A particular challenge may arise from the focus on transhipment – Singapore's re-exporting sector accounts for roughly two-thirds of all trade,' she added. UOB's Koh said the eventual 'payback' from front-loading may be more pronounced in trade-related services – wholesale trade, as well as transport and storage – rather than manufacturing. 'Any further growth drag in these sectors is likely to stem from weaker demand due to the tariffs themselves,' he said. RHB group chief economist Barnabas Gan and associate research analyst Laalitha Raveenthar estimated that the current round of US tariffs could shave approximately 0.25 to 0.3 percentage points off Singapore's GDP, primarily through a 0.9 per cent reduction in exports. However, Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee believe the slowdown in Singapore and the region's exports could be 'milder than previously feared'. Tariffs on Singapore-made goods would remain 'relatively competitive' compared with higher rates imposed on other US trading partners, said the duo. Exports of electronics and pharmaceuticals should also continue to grow as long as exemptions remain in place, they said, adding that the broadening artificial intelligence (AI) demand is a tailwind for semiconductors. Next monetary policy review Most economists expect the central bank to adopt a 'wait-and-see' stance when it issues its next monetary policy statement scheduled for month-end. UOB's Koh said he still expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ease policy further, with a higher likelihood that this may occur in October or January than later this month, 'once the payback effects from front-loading and the impact of tariffs more clearly translate into slowing growth momentum'. For now, the stronger-than-expected H1 growth, benign global financial conditions, stable job market conditions and likely unchanged core inflation forecasts are buying MAS more time, said Citi's Kit. 'Policymakers (are) likely to await greater clarity on tariff negotiations before easing monetary policy,' he added.
Business Times
14-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Economists upgrade 2025 GDP outlook even if economy slows in second-half year
[SINGAPORE] Several economists have raised their full-year economic outlook after advance estimates of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) beat market expectations amid the 90-day pause in US retaliatory tariffs. This is even as they expect GDP to slow in the second half of 2025, as the boost from the front-loading of economic activities fades. Most economists' forecasts are now at or higher than the upper bound of the official forecast range of '0 to 2 per cent', which the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) set in April, shortly after US President Donald Trump unleashed his 'Liberation Day' tariffs. Among them, Maybank is most bullish with a forecast of 3.2 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent previously. Both Citi and UOB have raised their outlook to 2.1 per cent, from 1.7 per cent; OCBC is also penciling 2.1 per cent, but from 1.6 per cent earlier. Barclays has upgraded its forecast to 2 per cent, from 1 per cent. DBS, Oxford Economics and RHB have maintained their outlook at 2 per cent, whereas Standard Chartered has kept it at 1 per cent. The upgrades come after MTI's advance estimates on Monday (Jul 14) showed that Singapore's economy grew 4.3 per cent year on year in Q2, well above the 3.6 per cent that private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg were predicting. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Q1 growth was also revised upwards to 4.1 per cent year on year, from an earlier estimate of 3.9 per cent. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.4 per cent, a turnaround from the 0.5 per cent contraction in Q1. This means Singapore averted a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinkage in economic growth. This brings year-on-year GDP growth for the first half of 2025 to 4.2 per cent. 'Singapore's resilient GDP growth in H1 was supported by front-loading of exports and, to a smaller extent, production in anticipation of further US tariffs,' said UOB associate economist Jester Koh. However, Barclays regional economist Brian Tan noted that the boost may have stemmed from export front-loading around US trade policy 'from other economies going through Singapore' – rather than shipments from Singapore. 'MTI notably did not link front-loading to manufacturing performance in its press release, which suggests policymakers also see limited evidence that front-loading has significantly supported domestic exports from Singapore,' he said. Tan added that MTI's statement 'suggests caution over whether the front-loading boost can sustain'. Specifically, MTI said: 'Looking forward, there remain significant uncertainty and downside risks in the global economy in the second half of 2025, given the lack of clarity over the tariff policies of the US.' The ministry did not change its forecast range but could potentially review it when the next quarterly economic survey is released in August. Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng expects official growth forecast to be raised to 1.5 to 2.5 per cent or higher, noting that Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said last week that the forecast would be revised 'as needed'. Slower growth in H2 Most economists do not expect Singapore's GDP performance to sustain into H2. 'The biggest challenge will come from US trade policy,' said Sheana Yue, an economist at Oxford Economics. Even if the tariff levied on Singapore does not exceed 10 per cent, she said, the city-state's trade-dependent economy 'isn't insulated from the indirect effects of higher global tariffs'. 'A particular challenge may arise from the focus on transhipment – Singapore's re-exporting sector accounts for roughly two-thirds of all trade,' she added. UOB's Koh said the eventual 'payback' from front-loading may be more pronounced in trade-related services – wholesale trade, as well as transport and storage – rather than manufacturing. 'Any further growth drag in these sectors is likely to stem from weaker demand due to the tariffs themselves,' he said. RHB group chief economist Barnabas Gan and associate research analyst Laalitha Raveenthar estimated that the current round of US tariffs could shave approximately 0.25 to 0.3 percentage points off Singapore's GDP, primarily through a 0.9 per cent reduction in exports. However, Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee believe the slowdown in Singapore and the region's exports could be 'milder than previously feared'. Tariffs on Singapore-made goods would remain 'relatively competitive' compared with higher rates imposed on other US trading partners, said the duo. Exports of electronics and pharmaceuticals should also continue to grow as long as exemptions remain in place, they said, adding that the broadening artificial intelligence (AI) demand is a tailwind for semiconductors. Next monetary policy review Most economists expect the central bank to adopt a 'wait-and-see' stance when it issues its next Monetary Policy Statement scheduled for month-end. UOB's Koh said he still expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ease policy further, with a higher likelihood that this may occur in October or January than later this month, 'once the payback effects from front-loading and the impact of tariffs more clearly translate into slowing growth momentum'. For now, the stronger-than-expected H1 growth, benign global financial conditions, stable job market conditions and likely unchanged core inflation forecasts are buying MAS more time, said Citi's Kit. 'Policymakers (are) likely to await greater clarity on tariff negotiations before easing monetary policy,' he added.
Business Times
14-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Economists upgrade 2025 GDP outlook even if economy expected to slow in H2
[SINGAPORE] Several economists have raised their full-year economic outlook after advance estimates of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) beat market expectations amid the 90-day pause in US retaliatory tariffs. This is even as they expect GDP to slow in the second half of 2025, as the boost from the front-loading of economic activities fades. Most economists' forecasts are now at or higher than the upper bound of the official forecast range of '0 to 2 per cent', which the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) set in April, shortly after US President Donald Trump unleashed his 'Liberation Day' tariffs. Among them, Maybank is most bullish with a forecast of 3.2 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent previously. Both Citi and UOB have raised their outlook to 2.1 per cent, from 1.7 per cent; OCBC is also penciling 2.1 per cent, but from 1.6 per cent earlier. Barclays has upgraded its forecast to 2 per cent, from 1 per cent. DBS, Oxford Economics and RHB have maintained their outlook at 2 per cent, whereas Standard Chartered has kept it at 1 per cent. The upgrades come after MTI's advance estimates on Monday (Jul 14) showed that Singapore's economy grew 4.3 per cent year on year in Q2, well above the 3.6 per cent that private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg were predicting. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Q1 growth was also revised upwards to 4.1 per cent year on year, from an earlier estimate of 3.9 per cent. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.4 per cent, a turnaround from the 0.5 per cent contraction in Q1. This means Singapore averted a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinkage in economic growth. This brings year-on-year GDP growth for the first half of 2025 to 4.2 per cent. 'Singapore's resilient GDP growth in H1 was supported by front-loading of exports and, to a smaller extent, production in anticipation of further US tariffs,' said UOB associate economist Jester Koh. However, Barclays regional economist Brian Tan noted that the boost may have stemmed from export front-loading around US trade policy 'from other economies going through Singapore' – rather than shipments from Singapore. 'MTI notably did not link front-loading to manufacturing performance in its press release, which suggests policymakers also see limited evidence that front-loading has significantly supported domestic exports from Singapore,' he said. Tan added that MTI's statement 'suggests caution over whether the front-loading boost can sustain'. Specifically, MTI said: 'Looking forward, there remain significant uncertainty and downside risks in the global economy in the second half of 2025, given the lack of clarity over the tariff policies of the US.' The ministry did not change its forecast range but could potentially review it when the next quarterly economic survey is released in August. Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng expects official growth forecast to be raised to 1.5 to 2.5 per cent or higher, noting that Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said last week that the forecast would be revised 'as needed'. Slower growth in H2 Most economists do not expect Singapore's GDP performance to sustain into H2. 'The biggest challenge will come from US trade policy,' said Sheana Yue, an economist at Oxford Economics. Even if the tariff levied on Singapore does not exceed 10 per cent, she said, the city-state's trade-dependent economy 'isn't insulated from the indirect effects of higher global tariffs'. 'A particular challenge may arise from the focus on transhipment – Singapore's re-exporting sector accounts for roughly two-thirds of all trade,' she added. UOB's Koh said the eventual 'payback' from front-loading may be more pronounced in trade-related services – wholesale trade, as well as transport and storage – rather than manufacturing. 'Any further growth drag in these sectors is likely to stem from weaker demand due to the tariffs themselves,' he said. RHB group chief economist Barnabas Gan and associate research analyst Laalitha Raveenthar estimated that the current round of US tariffs could shave approximately 0.25 to 0.3 percentage points off Singapore's GDP, primarily through a 0.9 per cent reduction in exports. However, Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee believe the slowdown in Singapore and the region's exports could be 'milder than previously feared'. Tariffs on Singapore-made goods would remain 'relatively competitive' compared with higher rates imposed on other US trading partners, said the duo. Exports of electronics and pharmaceuticals should also continue to grow as long as exemptions remain in place, they said, adding that the broadening artificial intelligence (AI) demand is a tailwind for semiconductors. Next monetary policy review Most economists expect the central bank to adopt a 'wait-and-see' stance when it issues its next Monetary Policy Statement scheduled for month-end. UOB's Koh said he still expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ease policy further, with a higher likelihood that this may occur in October or January than later this month, 'once the payback effects from front-loading and the impact of tariffs more clearly translate into slowing growth momentum'. For now, the stronger-than-expected H1 growth, benign global financial conditions, stable job market conditions and likely unchanged core inflation forecasts are buying MAS more time, said Citi's Kit. 'Policymakers (are) likely to await greater clarity on tariff negotiations before easing monetary policy,' he added.
