Latest news with #JillCareyHall
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street on Edge: Inflation Spike, $58B Debt Test, and Trade Turmoil Collide
Wall Street is holding its breath as two market-moving forces line up: inflation and debt. Investors are watching closely as the U.S. and China restart trade talks in London, aiming to ease tensions and avoid another round of tariff escalations. Meanwhile, a $58 billion Treasury auction could test demand for U.S. debt at a time when long-end yields hover near 5%a level many thought would spark broader market reactions. BMO's Ian Lyngen calls this week's combo of May CPI and Treasury supply a tradable event, with core inflation expected to accelerate to 2.9% year-over-yearthe first uptick of the year. The S&P 500 (SPY) sits roughly 2% from its February peak, but volatility could return fast depending on how these numbers land. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Sign with META. Despite the rebound from April's tariff-driven slide, institutional investors have yet to jump back into equities in full force. Deutsche Bank notes that institutional positioning has been this low less than a quarter of the time since 2010. JPMorgan and Barclays, however, suggest the tide could be turning, with more big money managers set to ramp up equity exposure. That shift hasn't shown up yetBank of America's clients were net sellers last week, with institutions pulling out while hedge funds and retail buyers stepped in. Strategist Jill Carey Hall thinks the market may have already priced in much of the deglobalization risk, but not the potential upside from underappreciated tax policy tailwinds. On the corporate front, action is heating up. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) isn't grabbing headlines today, but its peers are moving fast. Meta's (NASDAQ:META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg is going all-in on artificial general intelligence, quietly assembling a powerhouse team to build out the next big wave in AI. Boeing (NYSE:BA) just secured its biggest monthly order tally in over a yearmuch of it inked during President Trump's trip to the Middle East. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) is rolling out new AI-powered upgrades across its networking portfolio to stay competitive in the enterprise race. Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) posted a 40% revenue surge in May as chipmakers rushed to build inventory ahead of potential trade roadblocks. Not everything was rosyMcDonald's (NYSE:MCD) was slapped with a rare sell rating from Redburn Atlantic, and Citigroup (NYSE:C) is preparing to book hundreds of millions more in loan loss provisions, signaling early cracks in consumer credit health. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street on Edge: Inflation Spike, $58B Debt Test, and Trade Turmoil Collide
Wall Street is holding its breath as two market-moving forces line up: inflation and debt. Investors are watching closely as the U.S. and China restart trade talks in London, aiming to ease tensions and avoid another round of tariff escalations. Meanwhile, a $58 billion Treasury auction could test demand for U.S. debt at a time when long-end yields hover near 5%a level many thought would spark broader market reactions. BMO's Ian Lyngen calls this week's combo of May CPI and Treasury supply a tradable event, with core inflation expected to accelerate to 2.9% year-over-yearthe first uptick of the year. The S&P 500 (SPY) sits roughly 2% from its February peak, but volatility could return fast depending on how these numbers land. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Sign with META. Despite the rebound from April's tariff-driven slide, institutional investors have yet to jump back into equities in full force. Deutsche Bank notes that institutional positioning has been this low less than a quarter of the time since 2010. JPMorgan and Barclays, however, suggest the tide could be turning, with more big money managers set to ramp up equity exposure. That shift hasn't shown up yetBank of America's clients were net sellers last week, with institutions pulling out while hedge funds and retail buyers stepped in. Strategist Jill Carey Hall thinks the market may have already priced in much of the deglobalization risk, but not the potential upside from underappreciated tax policy tailwinds. On the corporate front, action is heating up. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) isn't grabbing headlines today, but its peers are moving fast. Meta's (NASDAQ:META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg is going all-in on artificial general intelligence, quietly assembling a powerhouse team to build out the next big wave in AI. Boeing (NYSE:BA) just secured its biggest monthly order tally in over a yearmuch of it inked during President Trump's trip to the Middle East. Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) is rolling out new AI-powered upgrades across its networking portfolio to stay competitive in the enterprise race. Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) posted a 40% revenue surge in May as chipmakers rushed to build inventory ahead of potential trade roadblocks. Not everything was rosyMcDonald's (NYSE:MCD) was slapped with a rare sell rating from Redburn Atlantic, and Citigroup (NYSE:C) is preparing to book hundreds of millions more in loan loss provisions, signaling early cracks in consumer credit health. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNBC
05-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Buy these small-cap stocks with attractive dividends, Bank of America says
Investors looking for both a bargain and income can find them in small-cap stocks, but they should be selective, according to Bank of America. Dividends are more prevalent than buybacks in the cohort, with some 40% of the Russell 2000 paying a dividend today, the firm said in a note Tuesday. While small caps face greater risk from tariffs and macro uncertainty, as well as from higher rates, they remain cheap compared with large-cap stocks, equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall wrote. The Russell 2000 was the first to enter bear market territory after President Donald Trump 's sweeping tariff policy was announced in April. A bear market is a 20% or more decline from a previous high. While the index has reversed course, it is still about 15% off its high and down more than 5% year to date. The S & P 500 is up more than 1%. Hall sees "ample opportunity" in the space, as well as room for payout ratios to rise. "Cash return to shareholders has been a historically outperforming style within small caps in both 'Downturn' and 'Recovery' regimes (the two phases our US Regime Indicator has been bouncing between for the last two years)," she said. With that in mind, she screened for Russell 2000 stocks that have dividend yields greater than that of the 10-year Treasury, which is currently around 4.39%. The names also have a Bank of America dividend rating of 7, which means the payouts are stable or likely to go up. Here are some of the buy-rated names that made the cut. A number of real estate investment trusts made the list, including Ryman Hospitality and Sabra Health Care . The former has a 4.8% dividend yield, while the latter yields 6.8%. Hospitality and lodging REIT Ryman Hospitality specializes in upscale convention center resorts, including the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center. It's a name that investor Jenny Harrington, CEO of Gilman Hill Asset Management, picked up after its tariff-induced sell-off . "They have five of the top 10 largest non-gaming conference centers, and so they get lumped in with the hotel REITs. But their dynamics are completely different," she said in April. The locations are usually booked out two to five years in advance, and the company has huge cancellation fees, Harrington noted. Last month, Ryman Hospitality reported financial results that topped expectations. Its first-quarter adjusted funds from operations were $2.08 per share, versus the $1.68 a share anticipated from analysts polled by FactSet. AFFOs are a measure of REITs' financial performance. Revenue was $587.3 million, beating the $548.4 million consensus estimate. The stock is down nearly 8% so far this year. Sabra Health Care REIT, on the other hand, is up about 2% year to date. The company focuses on skilled nursing/transitional care facilities, senior housing, behavioral health facilities and specialty hospitals. Senior housing and skilled nursing facilities are expected to benefit as the population ages . Those aged 65 and older in the United States are expected to make up about 21% of the population by 2030, up from 17% in 2020, according to the Census Bureau . That percentage is expected to keep growing through 2060. Sabra Health Care's first-quarter normalized FFO came in 1 cent short of the FactSet consensus estimate 36 cents. However, its revenue of $183.5 million beat the $178.4 million expected by analysts. Among the energy names on Bank of America's list is Northern Oil and Gas , which is a non-operator in the acquisition, exploration and development of oil and natural gas properties. The stock yields 6.4% and has fallen about 24% so far this year. Northern Oil and Gas' first-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue both beat expectations. The company also said it saw a 13% increase in barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) production from the first quarter of 2024. Lastly, utility company NorthWestern Energy has a 5% dividend yield. In April, the company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings that beat expectations, but its revenue came in below the Street's estimates. Shares are down about 1% year to date.
Yahoo
18-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why mid caps hold up better than small caps under tariff pressure
Small-cap stocks may face more pressure from tariffs than mid caps. Jill Carey Hall, senior US equity strategist at Bank of America Securities, explains why mid caps offer better risk-reward in the current economic environment. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. Walk us through why you think mid-caps still preferable to small caps here. Thanks for having me. Yeah, I mean, I think we've, we've obviously seen a bounce in, in the Russell 2000, but when you step back, I mean, the, the tariff agreement between the US and China is certainly a positive, but even before tariffs were in play, we were cautious in the Russell 2000 small cap index because, you know, these stocks have still been struggling to get out of the earnings recession that they've been in since 2023. Um, tariffs, while there is less incremental risk are, are still in play and, and there's still a lot of uncertainty and, and obviously there is still a 30% uh, tariff rate in, in terms of China. So smaller companies have thinner margins, so they will get hit harder in terms of the earnings impact from tariffs. Um, so when you're within that, that mid-cap size segment, mid-caps are, you know, less impacted by, by tariff risk. We've also seen, you know, cleaner balance sheets in the mid-cap size segment. If we're in an environment where the, the Fed stays on hold, which is what our economists are expecting for this year, um, smaller stocks have a lot more refinancing risk. So, uh, we, we've also seen trends this earning season where, you know, corporate sentiment on earnings calls has still been much more negative for, for smaller stocks. So we do think mid-caps offer a, a better risk reward. Um, but, but I think we're in an environment where selectivity is key, you know, just buying or selling the Russell 2000 isn't uh, maybe the best way to, to invest. We think there's still a lot of opportunities within small and mid-caps, um, you know, on, on a selective basis given where valuations are, um, but, but focusing on the stocks that, you know, maybe have stronger margins given tariff risk, maybe that have stronger estimate revisions in an environment where estimates have coming, been coming down. These are the areas we focus on. Um, and Jill, um, it's interesting that, that as we get these changing tariff rates, you guys have to redo your numbers on the effect that it's going to have on earnings per share. So where do you stand now and compare and contrast what it's going to mean for S&P 500 earnings per share versus the smaller caps? Yeah, so if we, if we look at the, the latest agreement and the, the 30% on, on China and, and the, the 10% uh, in terms of the reverse, then, you know, we, we think for the S&P 500, there should be about a five to 6% hit to operating earnings. Um, so much less than, than prior to the agreement. Um, whereas for, for small caps, we, we think the impact could be, you know, about three times as much, given that these stocks do have thinner margins. So it is harder for them in, in terms of the tariff impact. And a lot of small caps are, you know, less, less nimble than, than some larger companies to be able to as easily, you know, shift, um, supply chains and sourcing. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why mid caps hold up better than small caps under tariff pressure
Small-cap stocks may face more pressure from tariffs than mid caps. Jill Carey Hall, senior US equity strategist at Bank of America Securities, explains why mid caps offer better risk-reward in the current economic environment. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. Sign in to access your portfolio
