Latest news with #JimBianco
Bloomberg
23-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 23, 2025
- Jim Bianco, president and founder at Bianco Research - Nadia Lovell, Senior Strategist: US Equity at UBS - Dana Telsey, CEO at Telsey Advisory Group - Russell Brownback, Head: Global Macro Positioning at BlackRock Jim Bianco, president and founder at Bianco Research and Nadia Lovell, Senior Strategist: US Equity at UBS, join to offer their outlook on US equities and whether it could sustain its post-Liberation Day rebound. Dana Telsey, CEO at Telsey Advisory Group, discusses consumer health and the outlook for luxury goods in the US and globally. Russell Brownback, Head: Global Macro Positioning at BlackRock, talks about signals from the bond market globally after the House passed its tax bill.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What does the Moody's rating downgrade mean for the economy?
Investors sold off U.S. debt over the weekend after a high-profile downgrade of the nation's credit, stoking concern about rising borrowing costs as long-term Treasury yields spiked. The trend threatens to drive up interest rates for everything from credit cards to mortgages, while pressing the brakes on economic growth, analysts told ABC News. "If you borrow money, your rate will go up," Jim Bianco, a market analyst at Bianco Research, told ABC News. "Yields pretty much affect everybody." Moody's, a top ratings agency, cut the U.S. credit rating on Friday, dropping it one notch from the top rating of Aaa to a lower classification of Aa1. MORE: Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' passes House Budget Committee vote The credit reassessment at Moody's came years after similar downgrades of U.S. debt at the two other major credit agencies: S&P in 2011 and Fitch in 2023. The latest downgrade arrived at a moment of heightened volatility in bond markets, however. Long-term Treasury yields soared last month in the immediate aftermath of President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. House Republicans are moving to pass a domestic policy bill that includes broad tax cuts, which risks deepening the $36 trillion U.S. debt, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found. Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, told clients on Monday that the impact of the Moody's announcement amounted largely to an issue of bad timing. "This was the opposite of a surprise -- it was a long time coming," Cox said. "But it's a headline that came at a wildly inopportune time." The Moody's announcement sent the yield on a 30-year Treasury bond to a high of 5.01% at one point on Monday. Bond yields rise as bond prices fall. When a selloff hits and demand for bonds dries up, it sends bond prices lower. In turn, bond yields move higher. The yield for long-term Treasury bonds helps set interest rates for a host of consumer loans, analysts said. "When you have a credit downgrade, that signals higher risk, which means higher payment to bear that risk," John Sedunov, a finance professor at Villanova University's School of Business, told ABC News. "For consumers, whatever you might borrow to finance -- cars, houses, vacations -- this makes it all more expensive," Sedunov added. When interest rates rise, businesses also face higher borrowing costs, making it less likely that firms would move forward with an office expansion or round of hiring, analysts said. In turn, such conditions risk an economic slowdown. "It can put downward pressure on the economy if interest rates get high enough," Bianco said. "The big question is: How high do rates have to go?" Still, the volatility in the bond market may ease depending on the path forward for government debt and inflation, analysts said. The previous credit downgrades at Fitch and S&P stoked similar investor fears, but the U.S. averted a recession in the aftermath of each announcement. Stock traders on Monday appeared to shrug off the credit downgrade. The S&P 500 fell more than 1% in early trading, before recovering nearly all of the losses. The Dow and Nasdaq also moved lower early in the day, but each later turned upward. By midday, the 30-year Treasury yield had dropped from a high above 5% to level hovering near 4.92%. If the U.S. continues to deepen its debt, the federal government will need to spend a growing share of its budget on interest payments, analysts said. The rising borrowing costs could hike interest payments, which in turn may increase the interest payments, causing a self-perpetuating financial spiral. MORE: Regeneron Pharmaceuticals to buy 23andMe for $256M Policymakers have faced a growing national debt for decades, but the Moody's downgrade may serve as a wake-up call, some analysts said. "This is a major symbolic move as Moody's were the last of the major rating agencies to have the U.S. at the top rating," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a client note shared with ABC News. "One of the most widely acknowledged things in financial markets is the unsustainable path of the U.S. national debt," Deutsche Bank analysts said. "The big unknown is when it all tips over." What does the Moody's rating downgrade mean for the economy? originally appeared on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
19-05-2025
- Business
What does the Moody's rating downgrade mean for the economy?
Investors sold off U.S. debt over the weekend after a high-profile downgrade of the nation's credit, stoking concern about rising borrowing costs as long-term Treasury yields spiked. The trend threatens to drive up interest rates for everything from credit cards to mortgages, while pressing the brakes on economic growth, analysts told ABC News. "If you borrow money, your rate will go up," Jim Bianco, a market analyst at Bianco Research, told ABC News. "Yields pretty much affect everybody." Moody's, a top ratings agency, cut the U.S. credit rating on Friday, dropping it one notch from the top rating of Aaa to a lower classification of Aa1. The credit reassessment at Moody's came years after similar downgrades of U.S. debt at the two other major credit agencies: S&P in 2011 and Fitch in 2023. The latest downgrade arrived at a moment of heightened volatility in bond markets, however. Long-term Treasury yields soared last month in the immediate aftermath of President Donald Trump's " Liberation Day" tariffs. House Republicans are moving to pass a domestic policy bill that includes broad tax cuts, which risks deepening the $36 trillion U.S. debt, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found. Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, told clients on Monday that the impact of the Moody's announcement amounted largely to an issue of bad timing. "This was the opposite of a surprise -- it was a long time coming," Cox said. "But it's a headline that came at a wildly inopportune time." The Moody's announcement sent the yield on a 30-year Treasury bond to a high of 5.01% at one point on Monday. Bond yields rise as bond prices fall. When a selloff hits and demand for bonds dries up, it sends bond prices lower. In turn, bond yields move higher. The yield for long-term Treasury bonds helps set interest rates for a host of consumer loans, analysts said. "When you have a credit downgrade, that signals higher risk, which means higher payment to bear that risk," John Sedunov, a finance professor at Villanova University's School of Business, told ABC News. "For consumers, whatever you might borrow to finance -- cars, houses, vacations -- this makes it all more expensive," Sedunov added. When interest rates rise, businesses also face higher borrowing costs, making it less likely that firms would move forward with an office expansion or round of hiring, analysts said. In turn, such conditions risk an economic slowdown. "It can put downward pressure on the economy if interest rates get high enough," Bianco said. "The big question is: How high do rates have to go?" Still, the volatility in the bond market may ease depending on the path forward for government debt and inflation, analysts said. The previous credit downgrades at Fitch and S&P stoked similar investor fears, but the U.S. averted a recession in the aftermath of each announcement. Stock traders on Monday appeared to shrug off the credit downgrade. The S&P 500 fell more than 1% in early trading, before recovering nearly all of the losses. The Dow and Nasdaq also moved lower early in the day, but each later turned upward. By midday, the 30-year Treasury yield had dropped from a high above 5% to level hovering near 4.92%. If the U.S. continues to deepen its debt, the federal government will need to spend a growing share of its budget on interest payments, analysts said. The rising borrowing costs could hike interest payments, which in turn may increase the interest payments, causing a self-perpetuating financial spiral. Policymakers have faced a growing national debt for decades, but the Moody's downgrade may serve as a wake-up call, some analysts said. "This is a major symbolic move as Moody's were the last of the major rating agencies to have the U.S. at the top rating," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a client note shared with ABC News. "One of the most widely acknowledged things in financial markets is the unsustainable path of the U.S. national debt," Deutsche Bank analysts said. "The big unknown is when it all tips over."
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Volatility Won't End Until There's a Trade Deal, Jim Bianco Says
Bianco Research President Jim Bianco discusses the recent volatility in financial markets on "Bloomberg The Close."
Yahoo
09-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Bears Eye $70K, Ether Drops 10% as Trump Tariffs Start Global Menace
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped to nearly $75,000 early Wednesday, before slightly recovering, as Trump's sweeping global tariffs went into effect. Ether (ETH) dived 10%, leading losses among major tokens, with xrp (XRP), dogecoin (DOGE), BNB Chain's BNB, Solana's SOL and Cardano's ADA down more than 5%. Overall market capitalization decreased 6%, extending a 7-day slide to nearly 15%. Smaller tokens showed even deeper losses, with trendy upstart Berachain's BERA down 20% and memecoins bonk (BONK), pepe (PEPE) and floki (FLOKI) down more than 9%. Traders' retreat from crypto majors continued, reversing all gains from Tuesday's relief rally as Trump pushes forward efforts to drastically reorder global trade. Tariffs on any Chinese goods were hiked to 104%, along with import taxes on over 60 trading partners. U.S. treasuries extended their selloff, with 30-year yields soaring more than 20 basis points to 4.98%. That's a U-turn from the usual safe haven status that bond investors enjoy and a deeply worrying sign for traders. Some market watchers speculated the sell-off may have been caused by a forced liquidation of a large player. "Since Friday's close to now the 30-year yield is up 56 bps, in three trading days," Jim Bianco, the well-followed founder of Bianco Research, said in an X post. "The last time this yield rose this much in 3 days (close to close) was January 7, 1982, when the yield was 14%." "This kind of historic move is caused by a forced liquidation, not human managers make decisions about the outlook for rates at midnight ET," he added. Rising yields mean bond prices are falling and increase the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government, which could exacerbate the federal deficit, already strained by heavy debt levels. Investors worry that a prolonged trade war could weaken global trade, disrupt supply chains, and slow U.S. economic growth. This could further pressure U.S equity markets and bitcoin, which tends to mirror the ebbs and flows of U.S. markets. The current selloff suggests the market is pricing in inflation now, but prolonged uncertainty could flip this dynamic. Meanwhile, some traders are eyeing a bitcoin drop to as low as $70,000 in the near term amid the tariff escalations, a move that could further pressure crypto majors. 'For investors, the short-term outlook calls for caution, while a further drop to $70,000–$75,000 for Bitcoin is possible if trade tensions escalate, yet this dip presents a buying opportunity for the long haul,' Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. 'Dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin is a prudent move now, with an eye on altcoins like Solana for higher-risk upside later.' Lee remained upbeat for recovery to peak prices if the situation lightens in the coming months. 'If macro conditions stabilize or pro-crypto policies emerge, we could see Bitcoin hit $95,000–$100,000 by late 2025, lifting the market cap past $3 trillion again. While tariff pressures and a risk-off sentiment have hit altcoins hard, Bitcoin's resilience and rising dominance near 60% suggest the ecosystem's fundamentals remain solid, supported by institutional adoption and long-term tailwinds like the halving cycle,' he added.
