Latest news with #JimeetModi
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Earnings biggest overhang on the market, don't chase recent outperformers: Jimeet Modi
Agencies Multi-Asset Allocation Funds offer a structured and efficient way to achieve this. They provide a disciplined approach to diversification and help retail investors build long-term risk-adjusted wealth. While singling out earnings as the biggest overhang on the market right now, Jimeet Modi, Founder & CEO, SAMCO Group, said valuations have run ahead of reality. "One key mistake retail investors are making today is chasing recent outperformers in the mid- and small-cap space, driven by recency bias. This often leads to overexposure and heightened portfolio risk,' Modi said. Edited excerpts from a chat: The market seems to be in a consolidation mode with downward bias. Is earnings the biggest headache for the market right now? Yes, earnings are clearly the biggest overhang on the market right now. Valuations have run ahead of reality, and with global liquidity tight, investors are no longer rewarding potential — they want performance. The market's downward bias reflects this disappointment. Growth in a few sectors isn't enough to offset weak commentary in IT, realty, and global-facing names. The market is consolidating because it's waiting for clarity and earnings are the filter. This is not panic, it's accountability. For investors, this is the time to separate hype from fundamentals. Stay focused on quality, execution, and margin trends. In markets like these, discipline is your edge, and patience, your biggest is your reading of the Q1 earnings season so far? Why do you think that the recovery that was expected in Q1 is gradually being pushed to Q2? The earnings of Q1 FY26 were underwhelming versus expectations. Sectors like BFSI, auto, and capital goods have shown resilience, broader earnings lacked momentum. The recovery expected in Q1 is now deferred to Q2—not due to structural weakness, but timing pressures played their part. Global demand remains soft, hitting export-oriented sectors like IT, pharma, and textiles. Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty dampened capital flows and margin stability across segments signals underlying resilience. As festive demand, inventory normalization, and capex revival take shape, Q2 could bring better visibility. For now, the market is seeking evidence before rewarding growth again. Do you think that earnings are likely to see strong recovery from H2 onwards, given festive demand, impact of rate cuts, tax relief and low base effect? Earnings are likely to see a meaningful recovery in H2, driven by multiple supportive factors. The festive season should boost consumer demand across discretionary and FMCG segments. Additionally, the anticipated rate cuts and recently announced tax relief measures are expected to improve consumption and corporate margins. A favorable base effect from last year's subdued performance is likely to further enhance year-on-year growth visibility. Overall, the macro tailwinds and improved sentiment create a strong setup for earnings momentum to accelerate in the second half of the fiscal year. If you had Rs 10 lakh to invest in the market right now, how would you spread it across gold/silver, equities and debt? Asset allocation drives long-term returns more effectively than stock picking. With ₹10 lakh to invest, a 60-25-15 strategy balances growth and stability. I'd allocate 60% to equities - split into 30% large caps for valuation comfort and defensive strength, 15% mid-caps and 15% small caps to capture high-growth potential. Large caps offer resilience amid inflation and rate cycles. 25% in debt mutual funds cushions volatility, given its low correlation with equities. The remaining 15% goes to precious metals—10% silver and 5% gold—based on silver's industrial demand and a favorable gold-silver ratio. The IT sector has been the biggest loser in 2025 and many stocks are now facing their worst phase since the 2008 crisis. Do you think that more pain is in the offing or valuations have become cheaper now? The Indian IT sector faced a tough first half of 2025, with the Nifty IT index down 24% YTD and its P/E at 25.5x, just above its ten-year average of 24x. Early Q1 earnings held up, but weak US tech budgets and new tariffs cloud the near-term outlook. Industry wide, we expect decent revenue growth in the future, yet stagnant share prices could drive P/Es lower. Still, India's IT firms benefit from lower operating costs and a large, skilled workforce. These structural advantages should support a gradual recovery in H2 2025, making current levels a selective entry point for long-term investors in top-quality IT names. The recovery that we saw in small caps petered out in July, along with selling pressure in blue chips. At a broader segment level, do you think smallcaps are giving buy signals once again? Q4 FY25 earnings came in below expectations, with broad-based profit pressures across the segment. This reinforces the need for caution, even as valuations have moderated post the July correction. The recent dip has reset market expectations, creating a more favourable entry point for sound companies. With India's structural growth drivers intact and domestic liquidity remaining robust, smallcaps could see improved traction in H2 FY26. While near-term volatility and external headwinds may persist, this phase offers a window to gradually accumulate quality businesses with resilient models and clear earnings visibility. What's the one big mistake you think retail investors are making right now and one contrarian idea you'd back for the next 12 months? Diversification into non correlated assets is the best approach. One key mistake retail investors are making today is chasing recent outperformers in the mid- and small-cap space, driven by recency bias. This often leads to overexposure and heightened portfolio risk. A contrarian idea I would back for the next 12 months is to diversify meaningfully across non-correlated assets such as debt, gold, silver, or even U.S. equities to manage volatility and preserve capital. Multi-Asset Allocation Funds offer a structured and efficient way to achieve this. They provide a disciplined approach to diversification and help retail investors build long-term risk-adjusted wealth.
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Earnings biggest overhang on the market, don't chase recent outperformers: Jimeet Modi
While singling out earnings as the biggest overhang on the market right now, Jimeet Modi , Founder & CEO, SAMCO Group , said valuations have run ahead of reality. "One key mistake retail investors are making today is chasing recent outperformers in the mid- and small-cap space, driven by recency bias. This often leads to overexposure and heightened portfolio risk,' Modi said. 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Valuations have run ahead of reality, and with global liquidity tight, investors are no longer rewarding potential — they want performance. The market's downward bias reflects this disappointment. Live Events Growth in a few sectors isn't enough to offset weak commentary in IT, realty, and global-facing names. The market is consolidating because it's waiting for clarity and earnings are the filter. This is not panic, it's accountability. For investors, this is the time to separate hype from fundamentals. Stay focused on quality, execution, and margin trends. In markets like these, discipline is your edge, and patience, your biggest profit-maker. What is your reading of the Q1 earnings season so far? Why do you think that the recovery that was expected in Q1 is gradually being pushed to Q2? The earnings of Q1 FY26 were underwhelming versus expectations. Sectors like BFSI , auto, and capital goods have shown resilience, broader earnings lacked momentum. The recovery expected in Q1 is now deferred to Q2—not due to structural weakness, but timing mismatches. External pressures played their part. Global demand remains soft, hitting export-oriented sectors like IT, pharma, and textiles. Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty dampened capital flows and sentiment. Yet, margin stability across segments signals underlying resilience. As festive demand, inventory normalization, and capex revival take shape, Q2 could bring better visibility. For now, the market is seeking evidence before rewarding growth again. Do you think that earnings are likely to see strong recovery from H2 onwards, given festive demand, impact of rate cuts, tax relief and low base effect? Earnings are likely to see a meaningful recovery in H2, driven by multiple supportive factors. The festive season should boost consumer demand across discretionary and FMCG segments. Additionally, the anticipated rate cuts and recently announced tax relief measures are expected to improve consumption and corporate margins. A favorable base effect from last year's subdued performance is likely to further enhance year-on-year growth visibility. Overall, the macro tailwinds and improved sentiment create a strong setup for earnings momentum to accelerate in the second half of the fiscal year. If you had Rs 10 lakh to invest in the market right now, how would you spread it across gold/silver, equities and debt? Asset allocation drives long-term returns more effectively than stock picking. With ₹10 lakh to invest, a 60-25-15 strategy balances growth and stability. I'd allocate 60% to equities - split into 30% large caps for valuation comfort and defensive strength, 15% mid-caps and 15% small caps to capture high-growth potential. Large caps offer resilience amid inflation and rate cycles. 25% in debt mutual funds cushions volatility, given its low correlation with equities. The remaining 15% goes to precious metals—10% silver and 5% gold—based on silver's industrial demand and a favorable gold-silver ratio. The IT sector has been the biggest loser in 2025 and many stocks are now facing their worst phase since the 2008 crisis. Do you think that more pain is in the offing or valuations have become cheaper now? The Indian IT sector faced a tough first half of 2025, with the Nifty IT index down 24% YTD and its P/E at 25.5x, just above its ten-year average of 24x. Early Q1 earnings held up, but weak US tech budgets and new tariffs cloud the near-term outlook. Industry wide, we expect decent revenue growth in the future, yet stagnant share prices could drive P/Es lower. Still, India's IT firms benefit from lower operating costs and a large, skilled workforce. These structural advantages should support a gradual recovery in H2 2025, making current levels a selective entry point for long-term investors in top-quality IT names. The recovery that we saw in small caps petered out in July, along with selling pressure in blue chips. At a broader segment level, do you think smallcaps are giving buy signals once again? Q4 FY25 earnings came in below expectations, with broad-based profit pressures across the segment. This reinforces the need for caution, even as valuations have moderated post the July correction. The recent dip has reset market expectations, creating a more favourable entry point for sound companies. With India's structural growth drivers intact and domestic liquidity remaining robust, smallcaps could see improved traction in H2 FY26. While near-term volatility and external headwinds may persist, this phase offers a window to gradually accumulate quality businesses with resilient models and clear earnings visibility. What's the one big mistake you think retail investors are making right now and one contrarian idea you'd back for the next 12 months? Diversification into non correlated assets is the best approach. One key mistake retail investors are making today is chasing recent outperformers in the mid- and small-cap space, driven by recency bias. This often leads to overexposure and heightened portfolio risk. A contrarian idea I would back for the next 12 months is to diversify meaningfully across non-correlated assets such as debt, gold, silver, or even U.S. equities to manage volatility and preserve capital. Multi-Asset Allocation Funds offer a structured and efficient way to achieve this. They provide a disciplined approach to diversification and help retail investors build long-term risk-adjusted wealth.
Economic Times
02-08-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Trump's 25% Tariff on Indian Exports: A headline risk, not a structural threat
Exports to the U.S. account for just around 2% of India's GDP. Jimeet Modi says Trump's proposed 25% tariff on Indian exports is a headline risk, not a structural threat. With strong domestic demand, diversified trade, and policy support, India's economy and capital markets are well-positioned to absorb such external shocks without long-term disruption. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Sectoral Impact: Short-Term, Not Structural Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads A Reality Check: The Numbers Tell the Story Strategic Positioning & Policy Backstop Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Implications for the Capital Market Conclusion (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of .) The recent announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump of a proposed 25% tariff on select Indian exports has understandably stirred concerns among market participants tracking India's capital markets. While the headlines may sound alarming, it's important to put this development into perspective and assess its true economic me begin by stating clearly: this is not a significant threat to India's economic engine or its long-term investment there could be short-term headwinds for specific export-intensive sectors—particularly engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, auto components, textiles, and select metals and chemicals. These industries may face margin compression, supply chain friction, and temporary stock price the broader foundation of the Indian economy remains intact and resilient.*India's nominal GDP has crossed USD 4 trillion, positioning it as the fifth-largest economy in the world.*In FY 2024–25, India recorded total exports of USD 824.9 billion, which includes both goods and services. This constitutes roughly 20% of GDP, meaning that 80% of GDP is driven by domestic demand—a testament to India's robust internal economic activity.*Of the total goods exports, shipments to the U.S. stood at USD 87.4 billion, while imports from the U.S. were USD 41.8 billion.*Thus, exports to the U.S. account for just around 2% of India's GDP. Even if a subset of these is impacted by the tariffs, the macroeconomic fallout remains limited.*It's also worth noting that key growth sectors like IT services, digital exports, mobile phones, agri-tech, and clean energy remain largely untouched by these proposed tariff external trade diversification is another buffer. Exporters are actively expanding into markets across the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, reducing over-reliance on Western diplomatic engagement continues. The 6th round of U.S.-India trade talks is scheduled for August 2025, and historical precedent suggests a realistic possibility of a rollback or sector-specific reprieve—as seen during earlier interactions with the Trump refusal to open its agriculture and dairy markets reflects a confident and principled trade stance. This underscores India's emergence as a credible global economic initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat, PLI schemes, infrastructure investments, and digital transformation are significantly boosting India's manufacturing competitiveness and supply chain independence. These initiatives act as policy cushions against external should differentiate between sentiment-driven volatility and long-term structural some export-led stocks may experience corrections in the near term, India's broader market indices remain supported by:*Robust domestic consumption*Stable macroeconomic indicators*Healthy credit growthMoreover, foreign portfolio investments (FPIs) continue to flow into domestic-facing sectors like financials, infrastructure, consumption, and energy transition, reaffirming global investor confidence in India's long-term proposed U.S. tariff is a tactical disruption, not a strategic derailment. With:*Low GDP exposure to impacted goods*Policy preparedness*Expanding trade partnerships, and*Strong domestic demandIndia is well-equipped to weather such external should view this episode as a short-term sentiment overhang—not a fundamental threat. The Indian growth story remains robust, broad-based, and attractively poised for the long term.
Mint
09-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Sensex, Nifty 50 rise for 4th consecutive session; investors earn ₹4 lakh crore— 10 key highlights
Indian stock market extended gains to the fourth consecutive session on Monday, June 9, on across-the-board buying amid largely positive global cues. The Sensex closed 256 points, or 0.31 per cent, higher at 82,445.21, while the Nifty 50 settled at 25,103.20, up 100 points, or 0.40 per cent. The mid and small-cap segments outperformed as the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rose 1.03 per cent and 1.19 per cent, respectively. The overall market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms rose to ₹ 455 lakh crore from ₹ 451 lakh crore in the previous session, making investors richer by about ₹ 4 lakh crore in a day. In the last four sessions, the Sensex and the Nifty 50 have jumped more than 2 per cent each, and investors have got richer by about ₹ 12 lakh crore. The recent rally in the market has followed healthy domestic macro prints, better-than-expected Q4 results and the RBI's bumper 50 bps rate cut. Positive global cues amid expectations that the US-China and US-India trade deals were near also influenced market sentiment. "The Indian stock market has been experiencing strength recently, backed by positive economic growth and better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. We could see a positive structure for the indices playing out, considering the liquidity in the capital markets continues to be fairly buoyant and the continuation of steady growth in the Indian economy," Jimeet Modi, founder and CEO of SAMCO Group, told Mint. 39 stocks ended higher in the Nifty 50 index, out of which Jio Financial Services (up 3.89 per cent), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 3.25 per cent) and Bajaj Finance (up 2.69 per cent) ended as the top gainers. Shares of Eternal (down 1.86 per cent), ICICI Bank (down 1.73 per cent) and Titan Company (down 0.73 per cent) closed as the top losers in the index. Barring Nifty Realty (down 0.14 per cent), all sectoral indices ended higher. Nifty PSU Bank (up 1.52 per cent), Private Bank (up 1.03 per cent), Oil & Gas (up 1.04 per cent) and IT (up 1 per cent) ended as the top gainers. Nifty Bank and Financial Services indices rose 0.46 per cent and 0.54 per cent, respectively. Vodafone Idea (63.1 crore shares), Jaiprakash Power Ventures (19.50 crore shares), and Reliance Power (18.8 crore shares) were the most active stocks in terms of volume on the NSE. HB Stockholdings, Indef Manufacturing, Airo Lam, Oriental Carbon & Chemicals, Wealth First Portfolio Managers and Somany Ceramics were among the 12 stocks that jumped over 15 per cent on the NSE. As many as 133 stocks, including Coffee Day Enterprises, Jaiprakash Associates, Somany Ceramics, Capri Global Capital and Reliance Infrastructure, hit their upper circuits in intraday trade on the NSE. On the other hand, 54 stocks, including Nirman Agri Genetics, Dynamic Services & Security, Power & Instrumentation (Gujarat), Best Agrolife and Grand Continent Hotels, hit their lower circuits. As many as 2,066 stocks advanced, while 904 declined and 85 remained unchanged on the NSE. As many as 178 stocks, including Bajaj Finance, AU Small Finance Bank, HDFC Asset Management Company, InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) and SRF, hit their 52-week highs in intraday trade on the BSE. On the flip side, United Drilling Tools, Uma Exports, Naksh Precious Metals, Gujarat Lease Financing and Axita Cotton were among the 43 stocks that hit their 52-week lows. Experts believe the Indian stock market could extend gains and the Nifty 50 could target 25,350 mark in days to come. "The Nifty has finally broken out of its prolonged consolidation on the daily timeframe. Market sentiment appears positive, with the index sustaining well above the crucial 50-day moving average (50DMA)," said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. According to De, a golden crossover on the daily chart has been supporting the bullish sentiment. Following the breakout, a rise towards 25,350 looks likely. "A decisive move above this level could trigger a rally towards 25,700. On the downside, support is placed at 24,850; a breach below this level may lead to a shift in sentiment," said De. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar
Mint
09-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Sensex, Nifty 50 rise for 4th consecutive session; investors earn ₹4 lakh crore— 10 key highlights
Indian stock market extended gains to the fourth consecutive session on Monday, June 9, on across-the-board buying amid largely positive global cues. The Sensex closed 256 points, or 0.31 per cent, higher at 82,445.21, while the Nifty 50 settled at 25,103.20, up 100 points, or 0.40 per cent. The mid and small-cap segments outperformed as the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rose 1.03 per cent and 1.19 per cent, respectively. The overall market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms rose to ₹ 455 lakh crore from ₹ 451 lakh crore in the previous session, making investors richer by about ₹ 4 lakh crore in a day. In the last four sessions, the Sensex and the Nifty 50 have jumped more than 2 per cent each, and investors have got richer by about ₹ 12 lakh crore. The recent rally in the market has followed healthy domestic macro prints, better-than-expected Q4 results and the RBI's bumper 50 bps rate cut. Positive global cues amid expectations that the US-China and US-India trade deals were near also influenced market sentiment. "The Indian stock market has been experiencing strength recently, backed by positive economic growth and better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. We could see a positive structure for the indices playing out, considering the liquidity in the capital markets continues to be fairly buoyant and the continuation of steady growth in the Indian economy," Jimeet Modi, founder and CEO of SAMCO Group, told Mint. 39 stocks ended higher in the Nifty 50 index, out of which Jio Financial Services (up 3.89 per cent), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 3.25 per cent) and Bajaj Finance (up 2.69 per cent) ended as the top gainers. Shares of Eternal (down 1.86 per cent), ICICI Bank (down 1.73 per cent) and Titan Company (down 0.73 per cent) closed as the top losers in the index. (This is a developing story. Please check back for fresh updates.) Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
