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Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How US jobs data is collected — and why it's regularly revised
Recent data on the health of the nation's job market cost Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, her own employment after President Trump lashed out when revisions to earlier months' numbers suggested the economy could be in worse shape than previously thought. 'Last weeks Job's Report was RIGGED,' Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday. The July employment numbers, released last week, showed the US added 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June than what was reported previously. Economists were quick to note the changes, while larger than normal, are routine, factoring in survey data from employers that's slower to arrive, while Trump's actions risk politicizing a crucial economic indicator. Here's how the jobs report is pieced together and why data within it is regularly updated. How 'jobs data' works Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes an 'employment situation' report that includes employment, hours, and wage data for workers on nonfarm payrolls from an 'establishment survey' of businesses representing varied sectors of the economy. The report also includes data from a separate 'household survey' on the labor force, employment, and unemployment. The report is closely watched by economists, traders, and businesspeople because it can move markets, influence monetary policy, and reflect the overall health of the economy. The revisions that upset Trump were from the establishment survey, which relies on a survey of about 121,000 businesses and government agencies across the week or pay period that includes the 12th of the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Estimated data from this survey is always revised twice in the succeeding two months after it's initially published 'to incorporate additional sample receipts from respondents in the survey and recalculated seasonal adjustment factors,' the BLS says in a 'frequently asked questions' page. Put simply, some businesses are slow to respond, so their survey answers are added as they're received, leading to revisions — up or down — in the estimates of new jobs. Importantly, the most recent revisions were within the BLS's confidence interval — the measure of uncertainty in its own estimates — of 'plus or minus 136,000' for the monthly change in total nonfarm employment, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. May payroll data was revised down by 125,000 jobs to 19,000 jobs gained, while June was revised down by 133,000 to 14,000 jobs gained. Sweet noted that 'if you look at the size of the revisions relative to total employment, they're not significantly larger than what we've seen historically.' In a blog post earlier this year, Michael Madowitz, principal economist for the Roosevelt Institute, wrote that while revisions can lead to some confusion, it's worth reflecting on 'why incurring some temporary confusion, in this case, contributes to the universally respected economic statistics that are central to the long-term stability of the US financial system.' The BLS is showing its work, he noted, which is a good thing. The payroll estimates from establishment surveys are also revised annually to account for wage and employment data from state unemployment insurance tax records. One of these revisions made waves last August when the BLS announced the economy had 818,000 fewer positions in the 12 months ending in March 2024 than initially reported, though that revision itself was also revised earlier this year to 598,000 fewer jobs. Trump has referenced the 818,000 data point as another example of what he perceives as data manipulation to favor Democrats, though it wasn't exactly great news for the Biden administration. 'We were pretty devastated that in August of 2024 in an election year — right kind of in the home stretch there when people were starting to pay attention — BLS did its annual benchmark revision and found that we had added 800,000 fewer jobs than we had thought at that point,' said Alex Jacquez, a former Biden official and the chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive group. Why are the revisions happening? A bigger likely problem than data manipulation is fewer businesses answering the survey. Response rates for the establishment survey have declined sharply in recent years, leading to some worries that the data is becoming more vulnerable to errors. Still, researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco wrote in March of the monthly employment gains through 2024 that 'despite the substantial decline in response rates, the incoming data are reassuringly not subject to greater noise, and thus greater uncertainty, than in the past.' But 'it's becoming less of a clear picture of how the labor market is doing in the first estimate' due to the lower survey responses, Sweet said. That's not a knock on the BLS, he added. 'These revisions are normal,' Sweet said. 'It's the nature of the beast of trying to measure a $30 trillion economy.' Additionally, big revisions have occurred in other times of economic weirdness, including the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. 'This is why we had massive upwards revisions in the early months of the Biden administration, when a ton of people were coming back into the labor force after COVID lockdowns,' Jacquez said. The US indeed has some weirdness right now, including tariffs, business uncertainty, and immigrant workers leaving the labor force. '(Major revisions) tend to coincide with idiosyncratic times in the labor market, which would make sense. If there's a big recession, there's a bunch of churn and a bunch of things happening in the labor market that wouldn't normally be captured by the standard analysis and regressions that you pull out of the data,' he added. Sign up for the Mind Your Money weekly newsletter By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy Keep watch That's not to say the revisions aren't worth examining, though: the two-month revision was the biggest since 1968 when excluding recessions, economists at Goldman Sachs have said, and could point to some strain in the economy. Even before the most recent jobs report, economists had been watching for recession risks and a slowing job market, making reliable data all the more crucial. In a video appearance on Yahoo Finance, William Beach, McEntarfer's predecessor, said the BLS commissioner has nothing to do with the estimation or preparation of the jobs data, but 'the damage is done' — people who don't follow the BLS that closely may struggle to trust the numbers. 'We're going to take a long time to recover from this,' Beach said. Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. 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The Hill
5 days ago
- Business
- The Hill
Trump's labor statistics shakeup sparks anxiety over future economic data
President Trump's firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner is raising concerns about whether her replacement could manipulate job numbers to work in his favor. The traditionally nonpartisan commissioner role, usually held by career professionals who span multiple administrations, has given all presidents bad news in recent years. But Trump's firing of Erika McEntarfer, a Biden appointee, has given data experts new worry that their traditionally independent work could now be politicized. While experts acknowledge that manipulating economic numbers is difficult and highly risky, they have said Trump's actions threaten to undermine confidence in data on which businesses, consumers and lawmakers rely. William Beach, who was nominated by Trump in 2017 to serve a four-year term, was among the experts who sounded alarm bells about the decision to fire McEntarfer. In a joint statement with other economic experts and former government officials, Beach warned that Trump's actions undermined the integrity of the jobs report and was essentially making McEntarfer a scapegoat for a process that involves dozens of workers. 'This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers,' The Friends of Bureau Labor Statistics said in a statement. 'U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science.' A former Biden Treasury official agreed, telling The Hill on condition of anonymity: 'Just the act of firing the BLS commission irrevocably shades how people will read future economic data, which by itself is a huge problem.' Trump has sown doubt about the accuracy and validity of government jobs data dating back to the 2024 campaign. Trump claimed that downward revisions of jobs numbers during the Biden administration showed the government had put out 'fake' data that was 'fraudulently manipulated.' Economists across the political spectrum pushed back, noting it was part of a regular process to account for inaccuracies in the data when it was first reported and provide a more accurate picture of the economy. The president in recent days has used similar rhetoric to try to undermine jobs data during his own administration that has shown the economy may not be as strong as initial reports suggested. 'Last weeks Job's Report was RIGGED, just like the numbers prior to the Presidential Election were Rigged. That's why, in both cases, there was massive, record setting revisions, in favor of the Radical Left Democrats,' Trump said on Truth Social on Monday. 'Those big adjustments were made to cover up, and level out, the FAKE political numbers that were CONCOCTED in order to make a great Republican Success look less stellar!!! I will pick an exceptional replacement.' Trump said he intends to name a replacement for McEntarfer sometime this week. White House aides have argued the president is entitled to pick someone aligned with his own interests, though the position requires Senate confirmation. 'The president wants his own people there so that when we see the numbers, they're more transparent and more reliable,' chief White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Sunday on 'Meet the Press.' 'And if there are big changes and big revisions – we expect more big revisions for the jobs data in September, for example – then we want to know why,' Hassett added. But, experts have suggested that even with an ally in the role, it's very tricky to change the data that is ultimately released. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers stressed how difficult it would be to manipulate the number as part of his outrage over Trump firing McEntarfer. 'These numbers are put together by teams of literally hundreds of people, following detailed procedures that are in manuals. There's no conceivable way that the head of the BLS could have manipulated this number,' Summers said on ABC's 'This Week.' 'The numbers are in line with what we're seeing from all kinds of private sector sources. This is the stuff of democracies giving way to authoritarianism.' It would be tough to change the jobs data, but replacing the commissioner in charge of collecting it could still have negative consequences on the economy, argued Bruce Mehlman, who served as assistant secretary of Commerce for technology policy under former President George W. Bush. 'It will be hard for any head of BLS to manipulate the data, and frankly impossible for manipulated data to survive long-term scrutiny, but there's real risk these actions could undermine investors' and business confidence and thereby slow down the very economy they're measuring,' Mehlman said. The economy added 73,000 jobs in July, well below economists' expectations of around 100,000. More significant were the massive downward revisions over the past two months. The economy added just 14,000 jobs in June, after the number was initially reported as 147,000, and only 19,000 jobs were added in May after initially being reported as 144,000. A White House official said the significant revision, which they say was the largest downturn revision outside of a recession since the 1960s, underscores that a change is long overdue and said the president is looking for a new commissioner who will 'provide accurate and reliable data, not positive but fake data.' 'BLS data has been historically inaccurate and led by a totally incompetent individual. President Trump believes businesses, households, and policymakers deserve accurate data when making major policy decisions and he will restore America's trust in this key data,' said White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers. But, the Trump team has also publicly touted one specific part of the July jobs report — growth for American-born workers— as a sign of success for the administration, while also claiming the top line numbers were rigged and defending Trump's decision to fire McEntarfer. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer pointed to the data that showed 'native-born workers account for all of the job growth' in an interview with 'Varney & Co' host Stuart Varney. The report found that job growth among American-born individuals was 133,035,000, an increase from 131,037,000 for the same month in 2024. The Biden Treasury official blamed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for not convincing Trump to keep the BLS commissioner as a way to avoid a cloud of scrutiny over future jobs reports. 'In a normal circumstance, a Treasury Secretary would throw himself in front of the tracks to stop something like this, and failing that would resign in protest. But it's pretty obvious by now that Scott Bessent has zero backbone. Reliable and apolitical economic statistics are a fundamental bedrock for investment and hiring decisions,' the former official said.
The Hindu
5 days ago
- Business
- The Hindu
Who is Erika McEntarfer? Why did Donald Trump fire the U.S. Labor Statistics Chief amid the jobs report row?
U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), amid allegations that the latest U.S. jobs report was 'rigged.' The move has sparked a wave of attention toward the integrity of official economic data and the independence of federal statistical agencies. Also Read: U.S. employers slash hiring as Trump advances a punishing trade agenda Who is Erika McEntarfer? Erika McEntarfer is an experienced labour economist who served as the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2023 until her removal in August 2025. She holds a bachelor's degree in Social Science from Bard College and a doctoral degree in economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and previously held senior roles at the U.S. Census Bureau and the Council of Economic Advisers. Her research is focused on labour market dynamics and interactions between firms and workers in the economy and has been published in the Journal of Labor Economics, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and the Journal of Economic Perspectives. Appointed during the Biden administration, Ms. McEntarfer led the BLS through a period of post-pandemic labour market normalisation and increasing political scrutiny over economic indicators. Why was she dismissed? On August 1, 2025, Mr. Trump announced Ms. McEntarfer's termination, claiming that the July jobs report under her leadership was 'manipulated' to downplay economic gains. The BLS report showed an increase of 187,000 jobs for July, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. Trump publicly rejected the figures and suggested they were politically motivated. Last weeks Job's Report was RIGGED, just like the numbers prior to the Presidential Election were Rigged. That's why, in both cases, there was massive, record setting revisions, in favor of the Radical Left Democrats. Those big adjustments were made to cover up, and level out,… — Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) August 4, 2025 On Friday morning, the BLS reported that the US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, well below estimates. It also said it had revised the May and June numbers, and they turned out to be lower than previously announced by more than 200,000 jobs .'We need accurate Jobs Numbers,' Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social. 'I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. What's the issue with the July 2025 U.S. Jobs Report, and how is it compiled? The July 2025 U.S. jobs report, released by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) on August 2, showed a net gain of 187,000 non-farm payroll jobs, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%. The report also noted modest upward revisions for previous months: June's job growth was revised from 206,000 to 211,000, and May's from 218,000 to 223,000. Despite the continued job growth, some political figures, including Mr. Trump, criticised the report as 'understating' economic strength. Also Read: The need for the use of labour statistics The BLS compiles its monthly employment data through two primary instruments. The Establishment Survey (Current Employment Statistics) covers approximately 119,000 businesses and government agencies, representing about 629,000 individual worksites, and is used to estimate payroll employment, hours worked, and earnings. The Household Survey (Current Population Survey), conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, interviews about 60,000 households to assess labour force status, including employment, unemployment, and participation rates. These surveys undergo rigorous verification, statistical weighting, and seasonal adjustment to ensure accuracy. Head of the Bureau of of Labor Statistics did the same thing just before the Presidential Election, when she lifted the numbers for jobs to an all time high. I then won the Election, anyway, and she readjusted the numbers downward, calling it a mistake, of almost one million… — Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) August 3, 2025 Following the dismissal of Ms. McEntarfer, the U.S. Department of Labor has not yet announced an interim replacement. The role of Commissioner typically requires Senate confirmation, although an acting head may be appointed temporarily.
CNBC
5 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Trump stokes conspiracies about jobs data, as White House defends firing BLS chief
President Donald Trump and one of his top economic advisors stoked baseless conspiracies about federal jobs data Monday, suggesting without evidence that Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report had been "rigged" by federal workers bent on sabotaging the president. "All over the US government, there have been people who have been resisting Trump everywhere they can," National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Monday on CNBC. Trump, meanwhile, claimed on social media that the report, which painted a dour picture of the economy, was "RIGGED" and the previous months' revisions had been "CONCOCTED in order to make a great Republican Success look less stellar!!!" The only way to protect the integrity of economic data, said Hassett, is to replace the economists and statisticians who lead the agencies that collect data. "To make sure that the data are as transparent and as reliable as possible, we're going to get highly qualified people in there that have a fresh start and a fresh set of eyes on the problem," said Hassett. Trump abruptly fired Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday. Monday's comments from Trump and Hassett were the latest effort by the White House to criticize the labor statistic bureau's work in order to retroactively justify McEntarfer's firing. But they also went a step further, planting the idea that any government economic data which does not fit neatly into Trump's political narrative must, by definition, be false and manipulated by partisan federal employees. When the monthly jobs report from BLS is good news for the White House, Trump is quick to claim credit for the growth and point to the BLS-supplied figures as proof that his economic plans are working. "GREAT JOB NUMBERS, FAR BETTER THAN EXPECTED. IT'S ALREADY WORKING. HANG TOUGH, WE CAN'T LOSE!!!" Trump wrote on social media this spring after job growth in March came in better-than-expected. Fast forward a few months, and Trump and his top aides now argue that the BLS data cannot be trusted, and the downward revisions to the last two months' jobs reports were phony. It's the same argument Trump used to try to undermine Americans' trust in the voting process after he lost the 2020 presidential election. In his Monday post, Trump drew a straight line between the jobs report and the voting process. "Last weeks Job's Report was RIGGED, just like the numbers prior to the Presidential Election were Rigged," Trump wrote. There is no evidence, however, that the jobs report data was manipulated, and revisions in the data are common. The reports typically become more accurate in the months after an initial report is filed, as more data flows in from business that report their hiring and firing numbers.. "The commissioner doesn't do anything to collect the numbers," former BLS chief William Beach, who was appointed by Trump, said Sunday on CNN as he slammed the decision to fire McEntarfer. "The commissioner doesn't see the numbers for — until Wednesday before they're published," he said.
Mint
5 days ago
- Politics
- Mint
Donald Trump's BIG claim: Says last week's jobs report was RIGGED — Here's what he said
US President Trump on Monday (August 4) took to social media to claim "Last week's Job's Report was RIGGED, just like the numbers prior to the Presidential Election were Rigged." 'That's why, in both cases, there was massive, record-setting revisions, in favor of the Radical Left Democrats.' Trump claimed that the jobs figures had been deliberately inflated to 'make a great Republican Success look less stellar.' He alleged that the Department of Labor later made 'big adjustments... to cover up' what he called 'FAKE political numbers.' The President did not provide evidence for his claims but suggested he would appoint a new official. 'I will pick an exceptional replacement.' This is a developing story. Please check back for updates
