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New Straits Times
28-07-2025
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Papering over strains, US and allies prep for Taiwan war
AS they kicked off the largest joint military exercises in Australia's history with a press conference in Sydney earlier this month, US commanders gave a simple explanation for why 35,000 troops from 19 nations were simulating high-tech warfare. In the words of US Lieutenant General Joel Vowell, deputy commander of the US Army in the Pacific, exercise TALISMAN SABRE was intended to build the ability of the US and its allies to respond to any crisis in the Pacific – and in doing so, act as a "deterrent mechanism" to prevent a future conflict. Already, 2025 has witnessed a series of the largest and most sophisticated military drills held in the Pacific since the end of World War Two, a sign of growing nervousness over a rising China. But along with other US-led activity around the region, the drills also have a much more focused goal. They are to persuade Beijing that if it goes ahead with what are now believed to be increasingly advanced plans for an invasion of Taiwan, it risks finding itself at war not just with the US but a powerful and well-armed de facto alliance. Behind the scenes, however, sits clear diplomatic awkwardness, caused by Pacific frustrations over US President Donald Trump's tariff salvoes and trade war as well as strategic uncertainty over the US and its future global role. Unlike with its Nato allies in Europe or its main Pacific partners such as Australia, the US has no binding treaty obligations to defend Taiwan if it is attacked. Nor do Australia, the Philippines and other major players in the region. This month, the Financial Times reported that US officials were exerting mounting pressure on Australia and Japan to agree to intervene militarily if China moved against Taiwan. Under terms of the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, successive US administrations have been committed to ensuring plans and military resources are in place to protect the island against whatever Chinese menace it faces. But that does not extend to a commitment to use that force in the event of an attack. Indeed, there is a clear division of views within the Trump administration and its supporters on the wisdom of such action, as well as over how much support Washington should offer to the government in Taipei. That means America's regional allies find themselves taking a similar position. The result is a situation rather different from what the Trump administration expected to find when it entered office in January complaining loudly about a European failure to invest properly in defending their own continent and pledging to switch America's focus to confronting China. But while European Nato nations have now committed to significant spending increases – 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product on defence with an additional 1.5 per cent on defence related infrastructure, America's Pacific allies have held back. Under hefty US pressure, Taiwan itself is working to get its defence budget to 2.5 per cent of GDP, motivated by US warnings that it might be abandoned if it does not step up its efforts. Japan spent only 1.8 per cent of GDP on defence in 2025, rising to 2 per cent by 2027 – and its prime minister Shigeru Ishida was widely suspected of skipping the Nato summit in The Hague last month to avoid pressure to do more. Japan, New Zealand, Australia and South Korea are not Nato members, but often attend large alliance meetings to discuss global and Pacific security matters. "It's hard to believe, a little bit ..., but thanks to President Trump, Asian allies should look to countries in Europe as a new-found example," US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said at the Shangri-La Security Dialogue in Singapore in May. Hegseth also warned that the Chinese threat to Taiwan was "imminent" and that Beijing viewed its capture as a key step on the road to regional domination. Since Trump took office in January, however, America's Asian allies have found themselves profoundly uncertain by the administration's cool treatment of Ukraine in the country's battle against Russian invasion. They are suddenly worried that they might similarly find themselves deprived of US arms and forced towards a deal by a future US government. Trump's tariffs and trade war rhetoric have only made such matters worse.
Reuters
25-07-2025
- Politics
- Reuters
Papering over strains, US and allies prep for Taiwan war
WASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - As they kicked off the largest joint military exercises in Australia's history with a press conference in Sydney earlier this month, U.S. commanders gave a simple explanation for why 35,000 troops from 19 nations were simulating high-tech warfare. In the words of U.S. Lieutenant General Joel Vowell, deputy commander of the U.S. Army in the Pacific, exercise TALISMAN SABRE was intended to build the ability of the U.S. and its allies to respond to any crisis in the Pacific – and in doing so, act as a 'deterrent mechanism' to prevent a future conflict. Already, 2025 has witnessed a series of the largest and most sophisticated military drills held in the Pacific since the end of World War Two, a sign of growing nervousness over a rising China. But along with other U.S.-led activity around the region, the drills also have a much more focused goal. They are to persuade Beijing that if it goes ahead with what are now believed to be increasingly advanced plans for an invasion of Taiwan, it risks finding itself at war not just with the U.S. but a powerful and well-armed de facto alliance. Behind the scenes, however, sits clear diplomatic awkwardness, caused both by Pacific frustrations over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff salvoes and trade war as well as strategic uncertainty over the U.S. and its future global role. Unlike with its NATO allies in Europe or its main Pacific partners such as Australia, the U.S. has no binding treaty obligations to defend Taiwan if it is attacked. Nor do Australia, the Philippines and other major players in the region. This month, the Financial Times reported that U.S. officials were exerting mounting pressure on Australia and Japan to agree to intervene militarily if China moved against Taiwan. That raised eyebrows in both nations – as well as an unusually public refusal to make any such commitment. That should not have been surprising. Under terms of the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, successive U.S. administrations have been committed to ensuring plans and military resources are in place to protect the island against whatever Chinese menace it faces. But that does not extend to a commitment to use that force in the event of an attack. Indeed, there is a clear division of views within the Trump administration and its supporters on the wisdom of such action, as well as over how much support Washington should offer to the government in Taipei. That means America's regional allies find themselves taking a similar position, frequently happy to work with the U.S. on contingency planning and deepening military cooperation – but unwilling to commit much further. The result is a situation rather different from what the Trump administration expected to find when it entered office in January complaining loudly about a European failure to invest properly in defending their own continent and pledging to switch America's focus to confronting China. But while European NATO nations have now committed to significant spending increases – 3.5 percent of gross domestic product on defense with an additional 1.5 percent on defense related infrastructure, America's Pacific allies have held back. Under hefty U.S. pressure, Taiwan itself is working to get its defense budget to 2.5 percent of GDP, motivated by U.S. warnings that it might be abandoned if it does not step up its efforts. Japan spent only 1.8 percent of GDP on defense in 2025, rising to 2 percent by 2027 – and its prime minister Shigeru Ishida was widely suspected of skipping the NATO summit in The Hague last month to avoid pressure to do more. Japan, New Zealand, Australia and South Korea are not NATO members, but often attend large alliance meetings to discuss global and Pacific security matters. 'It's hard to believe, a little bit ..., but thanks to President Trump, Asian allies should look to countries in Europe as a new-found example,' U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at the Shangri-La Security Dialogue in Singapore in May. Hegseth also warned that the Chinese threat to Taiwan was 'imminent' and that Beijing viewed its capture as a key step on the road to regional domination. Few in Japan, Australia or the Philippines would question that analysis. All have long concluded that a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would magnify the future threat to them, and have weighed behind closed doors what actions they might take. Since Trump took office in January, however, America's Asian allies have found themselves profoundly uncertain by the administration's cool treatment of Ukrainein the country's battle against Russian invasion. They are suddenly worried that they might similarly find themselves deprived of U.S. arms and forced towards a deal by a future U.S. government. Trump's tariffs and trade war rhetoric have only made such matters worse. Since taking office, Hegseth and his team have been forced to exert considerable effort reassuring Asian partners, meeting with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Junior this week and reasserting a U.S. commitment to a mutual defense pact. Marcos also met with Trump, who agreed to ease U.S. tariffs on the Philippines from 20 to 19 percent. Japan also struck a trade deal with Washington this week, bringing its tariffs down to 15 percent. Senior U.S. officials have visited South Korea and Japan to discuss both using their enormous shipyards to support the U.S. military as well as discussing how U.S. forces based there might support a battle for Taiwan. That also appears to point to the broader Pentagon position: ignore the messy politics as much as possible, particularly when it comes to trade, in favor of building up real military capabilities including amongst allies, thereby maximizing potential options in the event of a future crisis. China considers democratic Taiwan as part of its own territory and calls its president a "separatist". Taiwan's government disputes China's claim. Taiwan itself has been conducting its own annual Han Kuang military drills in recent weeks, by far the largest and most realistic the island has ever held. Taiwanese media reported that the onlookers included the largest serving U.S. military delegation at any point in recent history, with U.S. troops visible in TV footage with their faces obscured digitally. According to the Washington Post, Taiwanese personnel were also invited to June's 'Kamandag' exercise that brought together U.S., Japanese and Filipino forces around the northern Philippines' Batanes island, among the closest points from which U.S. forces and any allies could strike at any Chinese warships attempting a blockade or invasion of Taiwan. At the Shangri-La conference in May, Hegseth echoed his Democratic predecessor Lloyd Austin in stressing that the U.S. believed European allies should focus on their own defense before sending forces repeatedly to Asia - but once again, that warning seemed to go unheeded. That appears at least partly a consequence of the recent signals and actions of the Trump administration. Now much more nervous that U.S. support might one day fall away, Asian powers especially Japan and Australia but also a host of smaller nations have made clear they would like to lock in deeper links to Europe, including through defense purchases. So far this year, both Britain and France have sent an aircraft carrier to the Pacific – while TALISMAN SABRE in Australia has also included forces from Canada, the Netherlands, Germany and Norway. Their presence – as well as the much larger U.S. military commitment including the aircraft carrier George Washington – will have come as a relief to many in Australia. Earlier this year, Chinese warships conducted live firing exercises without warning in international waters off Australia before circumnavigating the country completely in a show of force, with Australian complaints that the U.S. appeared to offer neither comment nor reaction. There is also ongoing speculation that the Trump administration might overturn the AUKUS defense deal to deliver nuclear submarines. In the meantime, TALISMAN SABRE has seen Australia showing off how it can help the U.S. military – with bases, weapons storage facilities and enormous training areas where long-range rockets and other weapons can be tested, while the U.S. and partners engage in the kind of aggressive training that might be seen as escalatory if conducted closer to the Chinese coast. That, of course, points to the debate within the U.S. itself, including in the Pentagon, over whether Washington is making matters safer or more dangerous through its actions to counter China – something that will be examined in a major review posture already underway. Those who think the U.S. is already overstretched – the so-called 'restrainers' – say it should look to pull back its forces nearest China's mainland, including the 500-odd trainers, contractors and military personnel reported to be on Taiwan itself, warning that their presence fuels unintended escalation. Any pullback could include personnel from South Korea and exposed areas of Japan including the island of Okinawa. Critics of that approach say such a withdrawal might be seen as a green light from Beijing to launch its Taiwan invasion. In June, as the U.S. sent Pacific-based aircraft carriers and Patriot air defense systems to the Middle East, China's two working aircraft carriers carried out their own high-profile training further into the Western Pacific than ever before, another sign of growing Chinese confidence. For now, the Pentagon looks set to keep stepping up its activity in Asia unless directly ordered otherwise. Whether that is enough to give those in power in Beijing second thoughts on launching an invasion of Taiwan, only time will tell, but the stakes look likely to keep on getting higher.
13-07-2025
- Politics
Talisman Sabre Military Exercise Kicks Off
Sydney, July 13 (Jiji Press)--The Talisman Sabre large-scale military exercise, led by the United States and Australia, started Sunday in locations including eastern Australia, bringing together about 40,000 personnel from a record 19 countries including Japan. The exercise is designed to demonstrate the broad collaboration among the participating countries. Also, it is apparently aimed at keeping a check on China, which is boosting its military activities in the Indo-Pacific region. At a news conference in Sydney, Lt. Gen. Joel Vowell, deputy commanding general of the U.S. Army Pacific, said that participating countries are working together with an aim to build quick response capabilities and effective deterrence. Asked about the possibility of the Chinese military coming to surveil the Talisman Sabre exercise, Vice Adm. Justin Jones, chief of joint operations at the Australian military, said, "It is fully expected." Chinese moves are being constantly monitored, he added. Talisman Sabre is held every two years. The ongoing exercise is the 11th of its kind. [Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]
Japan Times
28-06-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
U.S. Army capable of countering China's plans to keep it at bay, top general says
The U.S. Army aims to play a pivotal role in deterring China and keeping its forces at bay in the event of a conflict by bringing in increased firepower, cutting-edge tech and boosting interoperability with Indo-Pacific allies and partners, according to the service's regional deputy commander. 'The army can now hold planes and ships at risk in places that potential adversaries didn't account for,' Lt. Gen. Joel Vowell, the U.S. Army Pacific's (USARPAC) deputy commanding general, told The Japan Times in a recent interview when asked about the service's role in a regional conflict — including a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan. For nearly two decades, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been systematically planning, training and building the forces it believes are required to invade self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing views as a breakaway province. China has been increasing the PLA's budget to modernize and expand its cyber, missile, aerial, naval and amphibious assault capabilities in recent years. All of these would play key roles in not only attacking Taiwan but also in trying to keep the U.S. and allied forces at bay, a concept known in military parlance as 'anti-access/area denial,' or A2/AD. But Vowell said the U.S. is looking to exploit a weak point in Beijing's strategy. 'An A2/AD network is built to deter and defeat ships, planes and platforms, but it does not account for distributed land forces in the region,' he said. This, he added, is the type of threat the U.S. Army, as well as the land forces of partners and allies, will pose to any adversary force. 'We will have a deterrent effect that's hard to detect, hard to track, hard to find and that's getting increasingly harder to kill.' Crucial to success, Vowell noted, will be the ability to deploy cutting-edge weapons across all domains in a way that's dispersed, easily camouflaged and that allows U.S. forces to be on the move, so that they cannot be targeted at any one time and place. 'Gaining positional advantage matters,' he said. Lt. Gen. Joel Vowell, deputy commanding general of the U.S. Army Pacific, is seen during the Salaknib 2025 exercises at Fort Magsaysay in the Philippines in April. | U.S. ARMY 'If Army soldiers have these capabilities forward or in closer proximity to any potential adversary, then we can hold them at risk in their command and control, in their fires, their air defense, sustainment, movements and platforms in ways that they had not accounted for,' Vowell added. To achieve this, and to maintain a robust logistics network, Washington's regional alliances will remain crucial, the deputy commander said, adding that many of the U.S. equipment deployments have come at the request of allies and partners. 'When we develop capabilities to help solve problems for and with our partners, we usually get an invitation to try to train, test and innovate some of this stuff, be it South Korea, Japan, Philippines, Australia and other places,' he noted. This includes mid-and long-range missile systems, including for air defense. 'If we are asked by a (partner or allied) country ... to practice our long-range fires architecture, then sure we'll work to bring those in,' Vowell said. 'That's what we did with the Philippines,' he added. 'It was so good they asked us to stay around a bit and do more training with their missile and artillery battery personnel and some others.' If Japan and South Korea were to make similar requests, 'we would definitely consider that,' he said. Some of these deployments have already made international headlines, particularly as the Pentagon appears to be using exercises to de facto deploy key weapons to the Indo-Pacific amid growing tensions with China. This includes last year's dispatch of the Typhon Mid-Range Capability missile system to the Philippines for training exercises. The weapon, which can fire both Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles and SM-6 air defense missiles, has remained in the country since, prompting repeated demands by Beijing that it be removed. Lt. Gen. Joel Vowell, deputy commanding general for U.S. Army Pacific, speaks to guests and multinational partners during an event near Fort Greely, Alaska, in January. | U.S. ARMY The Pentagon has also kept the U.S. Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS), an advanced mobile anti-ship missile platform, in the country following joint drills this year. At the same time, the army has been resorting to disruptive and emerging technologies to gain an asymmetric advantage in the region. For instance, it is experimenting with artificial intelligence as a force multiplier by using tools that can enhance decision-making, optimize joint force operations and enable autonomous operations, provided there is always a human in the loop when it comes to offensive power. The army has also tested microwave-based directed energy weapon systems designed to counter drone swarms while fielding units that can 3D-print equipment parts as well as entire weapons such as drones directly on site. These and other systems have all been deployed and tested in the region by elements of the U.S. Army's new Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTFs). The service has been setting up MDTFs that can operate across all warfighting domains — land, air, sea, space and cyberspace. Three such formations have already been established in strategically significant locations worldwide, with the army planning two more over the next two to three years. For several years now some MDTF elements have been invited to Japan to work with the Ground Self-Defense Force on testing, and in some cases experimenting, with capabilities the latter may not yet field. Plans about whether to station an MDTF in Japan have also long been rumored. Vowell, who headed U.S. Army Japan from 2021 to 2023, said that while such ideas are currently under consideration, Tokyo has yet to grant approval. 'It's definitely up to the government of Japan if they want to host the stationing of a Multi-Domain Task Force,' he said. 'If we have long-range missiles that are inside the potential A2/AD bubble of Russia, North Korea or China, they would be there to help defend Japan,' he said. The aim, however, is not to move a lot of the U.S. Army forward, Vowell said. 'This isn't 1968 when we had ... about four times as many soldiers in Korea and Japan as we do today. We are not looking to do that.' 'What we need is to have presence, and we need to have access and influence with our partners and allies to help them defend their sovereignty,' he said, adding that the goal is to have 'stronger and more resilient partnerships.'
Axios
07-05-2025
- Axios
At the Army Research Lab, an augmented-reality peek at future war
In a curtained-off alcove of a U.S. Army lab just minutes off Washington's Beltway, reporters glimpsed the near future of war. It was robotic, electronically saturated and inclusive of all domains, including air littorals dominated by drones. The big picture: The U.S. Army has for years organized Project Convergence, a weapons-and-networking crucible that welcomes Air Force, Navy and foreign participation in pursuit of the Pentagon's connectivity nirvana, Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control. The experiment, typically spanning weeks across far-flung locations, was on May 2 brought to the Army Research Laboratory using Anduril Industries-branded augmented reality headsets and a physics-based simulation dubbed "sandtable." The company speaks little of this tailorable, digital world. But it allowed a dozen or so people to observe and interact with the same unfolding battle. What they're saying: "You'll see the interrelationship of all the entities: the maritime component, the special operations forces component, the air component, the Army component," Army Lt. Gen. David Hodne, the Futures and Concepts Center director, told Axios and other event attendees. "It's overwhelming when you see all this come together. And that's what warfighting is." Here's what it looked like through my goggles: Naval clashes off San Diego involving unmanned vessels, high-altitude balloons, sonobuoys and strikes from the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System. An air campaign near Las Vegas and the seizure of hostile territory at the National Training Center in California. Satellite skirmishes and communications breakdowns; jamming, spoofing and spying; large-language models aiding threat recognition; and Chinooks unloading smart machinery to lead the charge on the ground. A "machine-gun burst" of drones clearing a path through a minefield — a very 2025 mine-clearing line charge — and a robotic bulldozer pushing through. Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft zipping overhead. And massive exchanges of missiles, artillery and mortars. Threat level: These drills and press conferences are not done in a vacuum. Top of mind for Washington are China and Russia, plus their increasing intimacy. The former menaces Taiwan and the Philippines; the latter wages bloody war on Ukraine. "We war-game, we rehearse, we exercise all the time against our pacing threat" China, which has "tremendous" stockpiles, "exquisite capabilities" and anti-access, area-denial networks to keep firepower at bay, Lt. Gen. Joel Vowell, the U.S. Army Pacific deputy, said at the event. The intrigue: The general sees a need to combine weapons with countermeasures to save precious resources, like munitions and manpower. "Think the offensive missile systems that we have, HIMARS, versus the defensive missile systems we have, Patriot. They're built for different things," Vowell told reporters. "Wouldn't it be great if we could combine one platform that could do both?" Inside the room: Also in attendance Friday were Army Maj. Gen. Patrick Ellis, Air Force Maj. Gen. Luke Cropsey and the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office's Lindsey Sheppard.
