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UPI
5 hours ago
- Climate
- UPI
Hurricane Erin lashes Bahamas after regaining Category 4 strength
Hurricane Erin is expected to make a turn toward the north and northeast, skirting the Atlantic coast of the United States. Photo courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Aug. 18 (UPI) -- Hurricane Erin's outer bands were beginning to lash the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands early Monday after regaining Category 4 strength overnight. The storm was located about 110 miles northeast of Grand Turk Island and 935 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., the National Hurricane Center said in its 2 a.m. AST update. It was moving northwest at 12 mph and was packing maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. Forecasters are warning of life-threatening surf and rip currents across the eastern United States this week. The season's first Atlantic hurricane reached Category 5 status Saturday morning, the highest classification, after rapidly intensifying overnight. It became a Category 1 hurricane on Friday, the year's fifth named storm. Erin dropped to a Category 4 and then a 3 overnight into Sunday, but regained Category 4 strength late Sunday. "Since the large-scale environment is expected to be favorable for about another day, re-strengthening is possible during that time period," NHC forecaster John Cangialosi said. "However, it should be noted that predicting the intensity evolution from internal dynamics are challenging, and models often provide Little reliability in their solutions." The storm was skirting Puerto Rico overnight rather than hitting it directly. On the forecast track, Erin's core is projected to pass to the east and northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas over Monday, and then move between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast by the middle of the week Erin's outer bands will produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with isolated totals of up to 8 inches through Monday. "Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible," the NHC said. Also, swells will affect those places, as well as Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands, during the next couple of days, the agency said. "Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the East Coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days," Cangialsi said. He said interests along the North Carolina and mid-Atlantic coasts, as well are Bermuda "should monitor the progress of Erin as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle of next week." Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, said portions of North Carolina's Outer Banks and coastal Virginia will experience several feet of storm surge, leading to significant coastal flooding and beach erosion. He said the closest landmass for Erin to hit could be southeastern Newfoundland in Canada on Friday. Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic storm season two days ago. There have been four named storms so far this season in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Chantal caused major flooding in North Carolina but has been the only one of the four to make landfall in the United States this year. The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30. The peak hurricane season runs from mid-August through September and into mid-October. Ninety-three percent of hurricane landfalls along the U.S. Gulf Coast and the East Coast have occurred from August through October, the Weather Channel reported in citing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Last year at this time, there had also been five named storms. The U.S. East Coast is forecast to have rough ocean conditions through the middle of the week as the storm strengthens, the National Hurricane Center said. Tropical storm warnings were issued for the southeast Bahamas, about 300 miles east of Miami, and Turks and Caicos Islands.
Mint
a day ago
- Climate
- Mint
Hurricane Erin Weakens While Drenching Puerto Rico, Islands
(Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Erin's winds dropped on Sunday as it wobbled westward, bringing heavy rain across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico before turning north and probably restrengthening in the coming days. The storm, the first hurricane of the 2025 season, is expected to pass between North Carolina's Outer Banks and Bermuda later this week. About 170 miles (275 kilometers) north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, Erin's top winds are blowing at 125 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, the US National Hurricane Center said in an update at 8 a.m. EDT. Erin's winds increased rapidly on Saturday to reach 160 mph, making it a scale-topping Category 5 storm and one of the earliest examples of such a powerful system to emerge in the Atlantic. In July 2024, Hurricane Beryl became earliest storm to reach top intensity during the six-month Atlantic season. In addition to its wind speeds, which are forecast to increase again, reaching 145 mph in the next day, Erin will swell in size. 'The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic,' Senior Hurricane Specialist John Cangialosi wrote in the center's forecast. 'Given its track adjustments and increasing size, the government of the Bahamas has issued a tropical storm warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and a tropical storm watch for southeast Bahamas.' While Erin barely grazed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, it still knocked out power to many residents. About 10% of Puerto Rico was without electricity overnight, Luma Energy reported, and crews on the US Virgin Islands were working to restore energy on Sunday. If Erin holds to its forecast track, it will avoid a direct strike on any of the islands in the area or the US East Coast. It's expected to trace a shallow, c-shape arc through the western Atlantic, passing between North Carolina and Bermuda overnight Wednesday into Thursday. In addition to Erin, another tropical wave that bears watching is moving off Africa into the Atlantic, said Dan Pydynowski, a meteorologist with commercial-forecaster AccuWeather Inc. The patch of thunderstorms and showers is currently near Cabo Verde off Africa's coast and moving west across the Atlantic, with a 20% chance of becoming a storm in the next week. That part of the ocean, between the Caribbean and Africa, is known as the main development region to forecasters and it's where some of history's most deadly and damaging storms have formed. It's also a part of the ocean that becomes particularly active between mid-August and late September. 'It's that time of year, the later part of August,' Pydynowski said. 'We will have to watch that. We are quickly approaching the peak of hurricane season.' --With assistance from Alex Newman. More stories like this are available on
USA Today
28-02-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
Hurricane season 2025 is less than 100 days away, but forecasters have good news
Hurricane season 2025 is less than 100 days away, but forecasters have good news Show Caption Hide Caption When is hurricane season? Here's when you can expect the most storms. When do most hurricanes happen? Here's what to know about the hurricane season and how you can prepare. With less than 100 days to go until the start of the 2025 Atlantic season, the National Hurricane Center is working to finish up its reports of the devastating and deadly 2024 season. In a triumph for research and forecast improvement efforts, the Center's track forecast performance for 2024 – which saw five landfalls on the U.S. mainland – was the best in its history, the center stated in a preliminary review released this week of its forecasts for last year. "We're improving our forecasts by 24 hours every decade. That's remarkable," Rick Spinrad, an oceanographer and administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration from 2021 until 2025, told USA TODAY on Wednesday. "The 5-day forecast of hurricane track is as accurate as the 3-day forecast was 20 years ago." The center issued 347 forecasts in the Atlantic basin last year. The mean track errors for every forecast window, from 12 hours to 120 hours, "broke records for accuracy," found the center's review, authored by John Cangialosi and Jon Martinez. Cangialosi is a senior hurricane specialist at the center and Martinez is a research scientist with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere at Colorado State University, working under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program. "The report shows that the investments we've made in hurricane research have paid off," said Jeff Masters, an author at Yale Climate Connections, a co-founder of Weather Underground and a former hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters. The intensity forecast accuracy wasn't quite as great, after a series of unpredictable storms fueled by record and near-record water temperatures in the Atlantic hurricane region. Forecasting the degree to which storms are going to transform into powerful monster hurricanes has been a hurdle for decades. Even though it has seen vast improvement over the past decade or so, it remains one of the "most significant challenges." Beryl, the early hurricane that set records for development east of the Caribbean, set the stage for rapid intensification events. In total, the hurricane center noted 34 episodes of rapid intensification last year, when a storm's maximum wind speeds increase by at least 35 mph within a 24-hour period. That was nearly double the season average over the past 10 years, the report stated. In the end, the center's forecast errors for intensity were "a little higher" than the previous couple of years, the report noted. However, despite the slightly higher number of errors last year, the long-term trend is headed in the right direction with a decrease in errors, Masters said. "Track forecasts have shown the biggest improvement, but intensity forecasts have also been getting better," he said. "It's important to keep funding hurricane research to make sure these improvements continue." The value of hurricane research "Improved hurricane forecasts have been a huge benefit to society at low cost, with many lives saved and billions in damage prevented," Masters said. A 2023 study found that advancements in hurricane forecasting between 2007 and 2020 led to an 18% reduction in total hurricane-related costs, he said, which "translates to an average cost reduction of $5 billion per hurricane." How do you study a hurricane? Meet the fancy tech behind the science Spinrad said the forecast success "demonstrates unequivocally the value of continued investment in research and new technologies to improve our forecast capabilities." As the errors keep getting smaller, Spinrad said it means "we're saving lives and protecting property better than ever." 2024 Atlantic hurricane season summary Last year's hurricane season was above normal in several respects, including the number of named storms (18), the number of hurricanes (11), and the number of major hurricanes (5). The 20-year average between 1991-2020 was 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Final reports for three of the storms that made landfall in the U.S. – Francine, Helene and Milton – are still being completed, but here's what the center concluded about last year's other storms that made landfall in the U.S.: Hurricane Beryl: Beryl's peak maximum sustained winds of 166 mph were the strongest on record for an Atlantic hurricane prior to August. It was also the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record and the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, and became a hurricane farther east in the Atlantic than any other known hurricane. Beryl wreaked havoc in Grenada and the southern Windward Islands, destroying as much as 98% of the infrastructure on the islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, causing more than $430 million in damages. Beryl made landfall in Texas as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 82 mph, and higher gusts. After landfall, Beryl spawned 65 known tornadoes between Texas and New York. Beryl is blamed for 48 deaths in the U.S., including 14 direct deaths. Deaths occurred in Texas, Louisiana and Vermont. Among the direct deaths caused by Beryl were eight in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, six in Venezuela, and three each in Grenada and Jamaica. Hurricane Debby: Debby made landfall in Taylor County on Aug. 5 — in a region of Florida known as the Big Bend, where the coast curves southward from the Panhandle — as a Category 1 hurricane. Debby crossed Florida and Georgia, then made a second landfall in South Carolina as a subtropical storm. Rainfall amounts as high as 16.98 inches occurred in Sarasota, Florida, amidst reports of 10-15 inches of rainfall in the Tampa Bay region. A wide swath of rain, with maximum reports up to 10-12 inches, was reported across northern Florida, and rainfall amounts from 10 to 20 inches across Georgia and the Carolinas. A peak rainfall of 22.02 inches was reported in Moncks Corner, South Carolina, and 15.75 inches in Brunswick County, North Carolina. Debby's heavy flooding was blamed for 18 fatalities and $4 billion in damages. Get a disaster plan It's never too early to start planning for hurricane season. Now is the time to start thinking about your personal disaster plans and go bags if you live in a hurricane prone region. Even if your region was affected last year, it could be affected again this year. Just ask the residents of Steinhatchee in Taylor County, Florida who were affected by three hurricanes in 13 months. Emergency Prep 101: What to put in your "Go Bag." What are the storm names for 2025? To help prompt you to think about hurricane preparedness for this year, here's a preview of the storm names for the season that begins June 1 and runs until Dec. 1: Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She's written about hurricanes, tornadoes and violent weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X.
