Latest news with #JohnMorales
Newsweek
7 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Tropical Storm Erin Spaghetti Models Show Where Hurricane Could Hit US
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Tropical Storm Erin is tracking across the Atlantic, but while some models show it nearing parts of the southeastern United States, forecasters say the chances of a direct impact remain low. Why It Matters The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through November 30. Tropical Storm Erin is the fifth named storm of the season and the second to form this month, following Tropical Storm Dexter, which fizzled out over the ocean in the first week of August. Erin could become a major hurricane, a designation that occurs when a storm's wind speeds reach 111 mph or higher, classified as a Category 3 hurricane. Should it strengthen as meteorologists expect, Erin could become not only the first hurricane of the season but also its first major hurricane. This satellite photo provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Tropical Storm Dexter in the western Atlantic on August 4, 2025. This satellite photo provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Tropical Storm Dexter in the western Atlantic on August 4, 2025. NOAA/AP What To Know The latest spaghetti models—a collection of forecast tracks from various meteorological agencies—indicate that Erin could make landfall anywhere from the North and South Carolina to the southeastern corner of Virginia, with models predicting category 1-4 wind speeds. And here's this morning's experimental cyclone track ensemble forecast from @GoogleDeepMind and @GoogleResearch AI modeling. There you go. Five sources. Caribbean hit looks very highly unlikely (Erin started at parallel seventeen-and-a-half). US hit looks unlikely. It's early — John Morales (@JohnMoralesTV) August 11, 2025 The worst impacts could be felt on North Carolina's Atlantic coast, with wind speeds reaching up to 130-156 mph, which can cause severe structural damage and force large-scale evacuations. However, some forecasts show lower category 1 or 2 wind speeds of up to 110 mph in the state, which can result in roof damage and flooding. But most models show the storm is unlikely to make landfall in the U.S. "US hit looks unlikely," NBC Miami meteorologist John Morales said in a post on X, adding that a Caribbean hit also looks unlikely. But meteorologist and hurricane specialist Dylan Federico urged the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean to "pay close attention" as models have "trended a bit south," raising the possibility of a major hurricane passing "uncomfortably close this weekend." Erin's "large size," he added, could bring impacts even without a direct hit. Some meteorologists also caution that it is too soon to rule out land impacts. WINK chief meteorologist Matt Devitt described it as "not the best of trends," but stressed it's "still early" and could "snap back east (windshield wiper effect)." He warned against drawing conclusions from "12 hours of data," saying the "US East Coast is not out of the woods yet... just monitor for now." Similarly, FOX meteorologist Noah Bergren said "odds favorite currently would be listed as 'out to sea'" for the eventual track, but that those odds have dropped after new model runs showed "a much further west potential path." He advised watching "how things trend" in coming days. AccuWeather's storm timeline forecasts Erin will become a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday afternoon, well east of the Lesser Antilles, then intensify to a major hurricane with winds of 111 mph or greater within 48 hours. It is expected to remain a major hurricane until Sunday around 2 p.m. before downgrading to Category 2 and maintaining that strength through Monday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) also expects Erin to reach major hurricane status, but by late Saturday morning. What People Are Saying The National Hurricane Center said in a Monday update: "Regardless of development over the next couple of days, the system is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic." AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said in a report: "The upper air pattern late week favors it turning north and likely staying east of the U.S. East Coast. However, there can be an increase in rough surf and rip currents along the East Coast beaches next weekend into early the following week." What Happens Next NHC meteorologists will continue to monitor the system as it progresses.
Daily Mail
08-07-2025
- Climate
- Daily Mail
NWS funding slashed months before floods
Published: Updated: As catastrophic floods swept through Central Texas on July 4, several National Weather Service (NWS) offices had already been in crisis for months. Key forecasting hubs across the state were operating without critical staff, the result of sweeping federal workforce reductions spearheaded by the White House 's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). In San Angelo, the NWS offices' vacancy rate had doubled since January after losing several key personnel, including the warning coordination meteorologist, who retired early in April. The Austin/San Antonio office, operating with a 22 percent staffing shortfall. Experts such as meteorologist John Morales said 'it was a good forecast,' noting he did not believe cuts at the NWS ' had anything to do with the quality of the forecast [or] the advanced warning of the potential for flooding and damaging rains .' The NWS issued a flood watch on Thursday at 1:18pm, estimating up to seven inches of rain on Friday morning in South Central Texas. A flash flood warning was released at 1:14am on Friday, with a more extreme warning coming at 4:03am, urging people to immediately evacuate to high grounds as the situation became 'extremely dangerous and life-threatening. Rapid rainfall caused the Guadalupe River in Kerr Country to surge more than 30 feet above its normal level in under an hour. Erica Grow Cei, public affairs specialist/meteorologist at NOAA's National Weather Service, told 'Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo, TX had extra personnel on duty during the catastrophic flooding event in Texas' Hill Country during the July 4 holiday weekend. 'Extra staff members from both offices, in addition to the West Gulf River Forecast Center, had extra personnel on the night of Thursday, July 3 into the day on Friday, July 4. All forecasts and warnings were issued in a timely manner. 'Additionally, these offices were able to provide decision support services to local partners, including those in the emergency management community.' Meteorologist Matt Lanza told the Texas Tribune that the devastating event was not a result of a forecasting failure, but a breakdown in communication. While Texas offices have so far avoided overnight closures, unlike counterparts in Kansas and California, the operational strain threatens the consistency of weather monitoring and emergency communication in a state frequently battered by floods, hurricanes and tornadoes. The San Angelo office, which issued warnings for parts of central Texas, is short four staff members from its usual staffing level of 23. The meteorologist-in-charge position, the office's top leadership position, is not permanently filled. The office is also without a senior hydrologist, which is critical for analyzing stream flow and flood response, this vacancy was noted as a significant gap during the floods The NWS Austin/San Antonio office has been without a warning coordination meteorologist (WCM) and science officer. A WCM is the key interface between the NWS and the public, media, and emergency management officials. They are responsible for ensuring that NWS forecasts and warnings are understood and effectively communicated to the public, ultimately helping to mitigate the impact of severe weather events. Troy Kimmel, a longtime meteorologist and owner of Kimco Meteorological Services in Central Texas, stressed in May the importance of supporting organizations like the NWS rather than reducing their workforce. 'Let me tell you this, and this is where we are now. This worries me,' Kimmel said, highlighting the potential impact on weather forecasting services. He noted that there might come a day when local meteorologists will face challenges in getting timely weather information due to reduced staffing. Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher (TX-07) and the Houston Democratic Delegation sent a letter to NOAA leadership in May, raising concerns over the staffing crisis at the NWS Houston/Galveston office and requesting plans for maintaining services amid severe cuts. The NWS Houston/Galveston Forecast Office will soon lose all three members of its leadership staff,' the members wrote. 'The Meteorologist in Charge, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, and the Science and Operations Officer have all either already departed or announced their plans to leave following the announcement of significant staffing reductions at the direction of President Trump and Elon Musk. 'All three of the leadership roles in NWS regional forecast offices are vital to the overall operations of the office.' The Houston/Galveston office had a 44 percent vacancy rate by May, with 11 of its 25 budgeted positions unfilled. This was among the highest vacancy rates of any NWS office nationwide. The death toll from catastrophic flooding in Texas surpassed 100 on Monday as search-and-rescue teams continued to wade into swollen rivers and use heavy equipment to untangle trees as part of the massive search for missing people. Authorities overseeing the search for flood victims said they will wait to address questions about weather warnings and why some summer camps did not evacuate ahead of the flooding.
Daily Mail
08-07-2025
- Climate
- Daily Mail
White House slashed Texas stations' National Weather Service funding just months before devastating floods
As catastrophic floods swept through Central Texas on July 4, several National Weather Service (NWS) offices were already in crisis. Key forecasting hubs across the state were operating without critical staff, the result of sweeping federal workforce reductions spearheaded by the White House 's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). In San Angelo, the NWS offices' vacancy rate had doubled since January after losing several key personnel, including the warning coordination meteorologist, who retired early in April. The Austin/San Antonio office, operating with a 22 percent staffing shortfall. Meanwhile, the Houston/Galveston forecast office reported all management positions vacant by May, raising alarms about its capacity to handle the ongoing hurricane season. These vacancies stem largely from DOGE's aggressive campaign to shrink the federal workforce, resulting in the loss of nearly 600 NWS employees nationwide in 2025 alone. President Donald Trump rejected the idea of investigating whether NWS cuts had left key vacancies, saying that NWS cuts had anything to do with the tragedy were 'disgusting.' Experts such as meteorologist John Morales said 'it was a good forecast,' noting he did not believe cuts at the NWS 'had anything to do with the quality of the forecast [or] the advanced warning of the potential for flooding and damaging rains.' Erica Grow Cei, public affairs specialist/meteorologist at NOAA's National Weather Service, told 'Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo, TX had extra personnel on duty during the catastrophic flooding event in Texas' Hill Country during the July 4 holiday weekend. 'Extra staff members from both offices, in addition to the West Gulf River Forecast Center, had extra personnel on the night of Thursday, July 3 into the day on Friday, July 4. All forecasts and warnings were issued in a timely manner. 'Additionally, these offices were able to provide decision support services to local partners, including those in the emergency management community.' The NWS issued a flood watch on Thursday at 1:18pm, estimating up to seven inches of rain on Friday morning in South Central Texas. A flash flood warning was released at 1:14am on Friday, with a more extreme warning coming at 4:03am, urging people to immediately evacuate to high grounds as the situation became 'extremely dangerous and life-threatening. Rapid rainfall caused the Guadalupe River in Kerr Country to surge more than 30 feet above its normal level in under an hour. 'This wasn't a forecasting failure,' meteorologist Matt Lanza told the Texas Tribune. 'It was a breakdown in communication.' While Texas offices have so far avoided overnight closures, unlike counterparts in Kansas and California, the operational strain threatens the consistency of weather monitoring and emergency communication in a state frequently battered by floods, hurricanes and tornadoes. The San Angelo office, which issued warnings for parts of central Texas, is short four staff members from its usual staffing level of 23. The meteorologist-in-charge position, the office's top leadership position, is not permanently filled. The office is also without a senior hydrologist, which is critical for analyzing stream flow and flood response, this vacancy was noted as a significant gap during the floods The NWS Austin/San Antonio office has been without a warning coordination meteorologist (WCM) and science officer. A WCM is the key interface between the NWS and the public, media, and emergency management officials. They are responsible for ensuring that NWS forecasts and warnings are understood and effectively communicated to the public, ultimately helping to mitigate the impact of severe weather events. Troy Kimmel, a longtime meteorologist and owner of Kimco Meteorological Services in Central Texas, stressed in May the importance importance of supporting organizations like the NWS rather than reducing their workforce. 'Let me tell you this, and this is where we are now. This worries me,' Kimmel said, highlighting the potential impact on weather forecasting services. He noted that there might come a day when local meteorologists will face challenges in getting timely weather information due to reduced staffing. Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher (TX-07) and the Houston Democratic Delegation sent a letter to NOAA leadership in May, raising concerns over the staffing crisis at the NWS Houston/Galveston office and requesting plans for maintaining services amid severe cuts. The NWS Houston/Galveston Forecast Office will soon lose all three members of its leadership staff,' the members wrote. 'The Meteorologist in Charge, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, and the Science and Operations Officer have all either already departed or announced their plans to leave following the announcement of significant staffing reductions at the direction of President Trump and Elon Musk. 'All three of the leadership roles in NWS regional forecast offices are vital to the overall operations of the office.' The Houston/Galveston office had a 44 percent vacancy rate by May, with 11 of its 25 budgeted positions unfilled. This was among the highest vacancy rates of any NWS office nationwide. The death toll from catastrophic flooding in Texas surpassed 100 on Monday as search-and-rescue teams continued to wade into swollen rivers and use heavy equipment to untangle trees as part of the massive search for missing people. Authorities overseeing the search for flood victims said they will wait to address questions about weather warnings and why some summer camps did not evacuate ahead of the flooding. The officials spoke only hours after the operators of Camp Mystic, a century-old all-girls Christian summer camp in the Texas Hill Country, announced that they lost 27 campers and counselors to the floodwaters. Kerr County officials said Monday 10 campers and one counselor have still not been found. Searchers have found the bodies of 84 people, including 28 children, in the county home to Camp Mystic and several other summer camps, officials said.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
TV Meteorologist Issues Stark Warning as Storm Forecasts Grow Less Reliable
Hurricane season just got a lot more personal. In a rare and unfiltered moment, veteran meteorologist John Morales went off-script on live TV, delivering a grave message that's resonating far beyond Miami. During a segment that began with archived footage of Hurricane Dorian, Morales did something that stunned viewers, the Cool Down reported. After decades of calmly guiding South Floridians through storm season, he admitted he may not be able to offer that same assurance this year. 'I am here to tell you I'm not sure I can do that this year,' he said. His reasoning? Cuts. Devastating ones. Morales pointed to what he called a 'sledgehammer attack on science,' referencing years of reduced funding and staff at NOAA, the National Weather Service, and FEMA. The result is a multigenerational setback to the systems Americans rely on for timely, accurate storm predictions. He warned that weather balloon launches, a critical tool for modeling storm paths, have been slashed by 20%, leading to degraded forecasts. 'The quality of the forecast is becoming degraded,' Morales said bluntly. It was more than just a moment of candor. It was a stark warning from someone who has made a career out of staying calm under pressure. And it speaks volumes about the state of hurricane preparedness heading into a season already predicted to be 'above average' in person replied, "I know a lot of people in Florida and I'm truly worried for them this year. Not only for the degraded weather predictions but for the new FEMA head who didn't know about hurricane season." As meteorologists across the country raise red flags, Americans in hurricane zones are being urged to act now. That means creating a go-bag, preparing for power outages, and staying informed, especially if forecast reliability is no longer a given. Morales may not be able to offer the same confidence this year. But his message was clear: ignore this warning at your own Meteorologist Issues Stark Warning as Storm Forecasts Grow Less Reliable first appeared on Men's Journal on Jun 12, 2025
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Weatherman goes rogue on live TV with grave warning about hurricane season: 'I am here to tell you I'm not sure I can do that this year'
A meteorologist for Miami-based NBC affiliate WTVJ had a frank, chilling warning for his audience about an unprecedented hurricane season this year. On June 1, John Morales addressed his audience, which is in a hurricane-prone area, per the Guardian. WTVJ shared a clip of Morales' segment, which began with an archival hurricane forecast from "about six years ago." In the earlier footage, Morales assured viewers that the hurricane then being tracked "would turn," and he provided an estimate for when the turn would likely occur. "Remember that?" Morales asked as the clip ended. After identifying the older forecast as one from Hurricane Dorian, the weatherman segued into a jarring warning. "As you've grown accustomed to my presentations over my 34 years in South Florida newscasts, confidently, I went on TV and I told you, 'It's going to turn, you don't need to worry,'" Morales began. However, what he said next was blunt and concerning. "And I am here to tell you I'm not sure I can do that this year. Because of the cuts, the gutting, the sledgehammer attack on science in general," Morales continued, referencing well-documented cuts to both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service. Morales lamented a "multigenerational impact on science in this country," stemming from broad cuts to our meteorological infrastructure. Meteorologists understand the dire risks posed by extreme weather extremely well, and it can be deeply unsettling when they're visibly unmoored — as Morales was in the viral segment. Weather experts have been sounding the alarm about hurricane season in the United States nonstop. In addition to NOAA and the NWS, the Federal Emergency Management Agency also faced massive, abrupt cuts and a leadership shakeup. "This type of staffing shortage is having impacts across the nation because there has been a 20% reduction in weather balloon releases, launches. What we are starting to see is the quality of the forecast is becoming degraded," Morales said. By all accounts, hurricane season this year is likely to involve "above-average" activity. With NOAA, the NWS, and FEMA in "unprecedented disarray," our ability to model storm trajectories and to respond to hard-hit areas is severely diminished. In March, Accuweather urged readers to prepare for an active hurricane season this year. As Morales observed, forecasts are likely to be less reliable, leaving those in hurricane-prone areas more vulnerable. Prepacking a hurricane "go bag" allows quicker action in the event of a sudden or short-notice evacuation order. Broadly, becoming familiar with best practices during an active hurricane before one hits can go a long way in protecting people and property. Join our free newsletter for good news and useful tips, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.
