Latest news with #JohnSinclair
Economic Times
23-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
The US can survive tariffs. That doesn't mean they're worth it
On hearing of the Continental Army's pivotal victory at the Battle of Saratoga in 1777, John Sinclair told Adam Smith, 'The British nation must be ruined.' As Sinclair recalled, the author of The Wealth of Nations (published the year before) urged him to calm down. 'Be assured, my young friend, there is a great deal of ruin in a nation.'Dedicated though he was to the benefits of free trade, Smith would doubtless say the same about today's turn toward mercantilism. It's a blow, but not the end of the world. That's worth noting: Catastrophism, a popular mode of discourse these days, is usually unhelpful. But champions of President Donald Trump's approach to trade are apt to make the opposite mistake — namely, thinking that if the roof hasn't fallen in, the policy must be succeeding. If it results in slower growth and persistent underperformance, that might not be 'ruin,' but it sure isn't Trump's new system of tariffs has settled down — if it ever does — what might it cost? What might 'less than ruin' amount to?According to most estimates, the direct economic losses are certainly tolerable, especially for a huge and relatively closed economy like the US. One recent study explores the upper limit on what's at stake by calculating the benefits of liberal trade compared with no trade at all. For the US, the costs of closing the economy altogether would fall in the range of 2% to 8% of gross domestic product. The costs of less trade, as opposed to no trade, would naturally be smaller still. Earlier this month the Federal Reserve published a research note on the effects of specific tariffs. Its economists modeled an increase of 60 percentage points in the US tariff on imports from China, with and without a 'baseline' tariff of 10% on other trading partners, assuming for one set of scenarios that the trade deficit is unchanged and for another that it shrinks. According to their model, the 60% extra tariff on China, the 10% baseline tariff on everybody else plus a 25% reduction in the trade deficit would cut US GDP by a little under 3%. (China's losses would be about the same; thanks to shifts in the pattern of trade, the rest of the world would come out about even.) These and other such studies reveal the complexity of the changes caused by trade barriers. For example, surely tariffs would reduce imports and hence shrink the trade deficit. Why assume, as some of the Fed's scenarios do, that the deficit doesn't change? Actually, it's far from obvious that the trade deficit will narrow. You'd expect a smaller trade deficit to make the dollar appreciate — in due course increasing imports, cutting exports and undoing the initial effect. In any case, the overall external balance is determined by the gap between its saving and investment, which tariffs affect only consider the surprisingly small estimated cost of closing the economy completely. One of the assumptions behind the estimated losses of 2% to 8% of GDP is that the ease of replacing domestic goods with imports — the so-called elasticity of substitution — can be estimated from current trade data. But as the economy approaches autarky, this elasticity might fall abruptly as certain critical foreign products prove difficult or impossible to replace. The costs of abolishing imports might then be much bigger than projected. (Granted, a rational mercantilist would be careful not to press too far: An entirely closed economy isn't the goal.)The list of other complications is endless. What's the effect of trade on competition and innovation? It depends. Up to a point, competition through trade is likely to spur innovation, but if foreign competition is severe enough to shut a domestic industry down, said industry won't be more innovative. The dynamic effects of trade — that is, the effects of trade on growth — are even harder to estimate than the static effects captured in the studies mentioned all the uncertainty, two points seem worth emphasizing. First, despite the complexities, economists generally agree that trade does deliver net gains — that, on this, Adam Smith was right. If suppressing trade is costly, then exactly how costly is not the most important question. You don't do it. To be sure, the US has a huge domestic market and is richly endowed with natural resources. These advantages mean that trade is likely to deliver smaller gains than it does for other economies. But, to repeat, small gains are better than the costs of the new mercantilism aren't confined to the implications for GDP of moving from a settled regime of liberal trade to a settled regime of managed trade. That shift involves massive economic and geopolitical dislocations, which are likely to be costly in restructuring expends resources; it creates jobs and destroys them. The 'China Shock' was disruptive — but vainly trying to reverse it will be disruptive all over again. In the first case, there were aggregate benefits; in the second, there'll be aggregate dislocation could involve the biggest costs of all. The new mercantilism puts US-led alliances and multilateral institutions under enormous strain. The view that the US has been exploited by these arrangements isn't unwarranted — there's been some free-riding, no doubt — but on balance US global leadership has been an exercise in enlightened self-interest. Dismantling the global trading order, and casting this as overdue retaliation against selfish so-called friends, is to cast away American power. It would be bad policy if undertaken in return for small economic gains. In return for substantial, even if less-than-ruinous, economic losses, it's insane.
Time of India
23-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
The US can survive tariffs. That doesn't mean they're worth it
On hearing of the Continental Army's pivotal victory at the Battle of Saratoga in 1777, John Sinclair told Adam Smith, 'The British nation must be ruined.' As Sinclair recalled, the author of The Wealth of Nations (published the year before) urged him to calm down. 'Be assured, my young friend, there is a great deal of ruin in a nation.' Dedicated though he was to the benefits of free trade, Smith would doubtless say the same about today's turn toward mercantilism. It's a blow, but not the end of the world. That's worth noting: Catastrophism, a popular mode of discourse these days, is usually unhelpful. But champions of President Donald Trump's approach to trade are apt to make the opposite mistake — namely, thinking that if the roof hasn't fallen in, the policy must be succeeding. If it results in slower growth and persistent underperformance, that might not be 'ruin,' but it sure isn't victory. Once Trump's new system of tariffs has settled down — if it ever does — what might it cost? What might 'less than ruin' amount to? by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like New Container Houses Indonesia (Prices May Surprise You) Container House | Search ads Search Now Undo According to most estimates, the direct economic losses are certainly tolerable, especially for a huge and relatively closed economy like the US. One recent study explores the upper limit on what's at stake by calculating the benefits of liberal trade compared with no trade at all. For the US, the costs of closing the economy altogether would fall in the range of 2% to 8% of gross domestic product. The costs of less trade, as opposed to no trade, would naturally be smaller still. Earlier this month the Federal Reserve published a research note on the effects of specific tariffs. Its economists modeled an increase of 60 percentage points in the US tariff on imports from China, with and without a 'baseline' tariff of 10% on other trading partners, assuming for one set of scenarios that the trade deficit is unchanged and for another that it shrinks. According to their model, the 60% extra tariff on China, the 10% baseline tariff on everybody else plus a 25% reduction in the trade deficit would cut US GDP by a little under 3%. (China's losses would be about the same; thanks to shifts in the pattern of trade, the rest of the world would come out about even.) Live Events These and other such studies reveal the complexity of the changes caused by trade barriers. For example, surely tariffs would reduce imports and hence shrink the trade deficit. Why assume, as some of the Fed's scenarios do, that the deficit doesn't change? Actually, it's far from obvious that the trade deficit will narrow. You'd expect a smaller trade deficit to make the dollar appreciate — in due course increasing imports, cutting exports and undoing the initial effect. In any case, the overall external balance is determined by the gap between its saving and investment, which tariffs affect only indirectly. Or consider the surprisingly small estimated cost of closing the economy completely. One of the assumptions behind the estimated losses of 2% to 8% of GDP is that the ease of replacing domestic goods with imports — the so-called elasticity of substitution — can be estimated from current trade data. But as the economy approaches autarky, this elasticity might fall abruptly as certain critical foreign products prove difficult or impossible to replace. The costs of abolishing imports might then be much bigger than projected. (Granted, a rational mercantilist would be careful not to press too far: An entirely closed economy isn't the goal.) The list of other complications is endless. What's the effect of trade on competition and innovation? It depends. Up to a point, competition through trade is likely to spur innovation, but if foreign competition is severe enough to shut a domestic industry down, said industry won't be more innovative. The dynamic effects of trade — that is, the effects of trade on growth — are even harder to estimate than the static effects captured in the studies mentioned above. Amid all the uncertainty, two points seem worth emphasizing. First, despite the complexities, economists generally agree that trade does deliver net gains — that, on this, Adam Smith was right. If suppressing trade is costly, then exactly how costly is not the most important question. You don't do it. To be sure, the US has a huge domestic market and is richly endowed with natural resources. These advantages mean that trade is likely to deliver smaller gains than it does for other economies. But, to repeat, small gains are better than none. Second, the costs of the new mercantilism aren't confined to the implications for GDP of moving from a settled regime of liberal trade to a settled regime of managed trade. That shift involves massive economic and geopolitical dislocations, which are likely to be costly in themselves. Economic restructuring expends resources; it creates jobs and destroys them. The 'China Shock' was disruptive — but vainly trying to reverse it will be disruptive all over again. In the first case, there were aggregate benefits; in the second, there'll be aggregate losses. Geopolitical dislocation could involve the biggest costs of all. The new mercantilism puts US-led alliances and multilateral institutions under enormous strain. The view that the US has been exploited by these arrangements isn't unwarranted — there's been some free-riding, no doubt — but on balance US global leadership has been an exercise in enlightened self-interest. Dismantling the global trading order, and casting this as overdue retaliation against selfish so-called friends, is to cast away American power. It would be bad policy if undertaken in return for small economic gains. In return for substantial, even if less-than-ruinous, economic losses, it's insane.
Bloomberg
23-07-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
The US Can Survive Tariffs. That Doesn't Mean They're Worth It.
On hearing of the Continental Army's pivotal victory at the Battle of Saratoga in 1777, John Sinclair told Adam Smith, 'The British nation must be ruined.' As Sinclair recalled, the author of The Wealth of Nations (published the year before) urged him to calm down. 'Be assured, my young friend, there is a great deal of ruin in a nation.' Dedicated though he was to the benefits of free trade, Smith would doubtless say the same about today's turn toward mercantilism. It's a blow, but not the end of the world. That's worth noting: Catastrophism, a popular mode of discourse these days, is usually unhelpful. But champions of President Donald Trump's approach to trade are apt to make the opposite mistake — namely, thinking that if the roof hasn't fallen in, the policy must be succeeding. If it results in slower growth and persistent underperformance, that might not be 'ruin,' but it sure isn't victory.
Cision Canada
14-07-2025
- Business
- Cision Canada
AGEDB Technology Announces Director Changes
VANCOUVER, BC, July 14, 2025 /CNW/ - AGEDB Technology Ltd. (" AGEDB" or the " Company") (TSXV: AGET) announces the appointment of John Sinclair as a Director of the Company. Mr. Sinclair is a Canadian CPA with experience in the field of finance, accounting, and the audit of public companies. With a career spanning several decades, he has served as Senior Partner with various audit firms including Smith, Nixon LLP, Collins Barrow Toronto LLP, and Baker Tilly WM LLP, including as Managing Partner of Baker Tilly WM LLP's Toronto office. During these tenures, Mr. Sinclair managed complex projects and provided financial advisory services to clients around the world. Mr. Sinclair graduated from the University of Toronto with a Bachelor of Arts, Commerce and Economics, in April 1983. Mr. Sinclair is a director of Lifeist Wellness Inc., a company listed on the TSX Venture Exchange, as well as DiagnosTear Technologies Inc., a company listed on the CSE. He serves as chair of the audit committee of both companies. About AGEDB Technology Ltd. AGEDB Technology Ltd. (TSXV: AGET) is a leading provider of enterprise database solutions. The company specializes in advanced database technologies, including graph databases and data processing systems, offering robust solutions to clients worldwide. AGEDB Technology Ltd. On behalf of the board of directors, "Young Seung Ko" Director Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release. SOURCE AGEDB Technology Ltd.
RNZ News
27-06-2025
- Health
- RNZ News
Yoga gains ground behind bars in New Zealand
While only a handful of prisons offer in-person yoga classes, video sessions are available in all 18 facilities across the country. Photo: Supplied Some of New Zealand's toughest inmates are turning to yoga behind bars - part of a growing effort to reduce reoffending and support rehabilitation. While only a handful of prisons offer in-person yoga classes at the moment, video sessions are available in all 18 facilities nationwide. "Before Covid, we had at least one teacher in every prison. Since the pandemic, things have changed," says John Sinclair, chair of the Yoga Education in Prisons Trust, which was formed in 2009 to promote yoga as a tool for rehabilitation. "Yoga helps reduce anxiety, aids sleep, supports relaxation and helps people deal with addiction," Sinclair says. "We'd love to expand what we're doing inside prisons." Jasmin Dingemans is a yoga instructor with more than 17 years' experience. Photo: Supplied Jasmin Dingemans agrees. "Without a doubt, yoga has rehabilitative effect," says Dingemans, a yoga instructor and trustee of Yoga Education in Prisons Trust. Dingemans has been teaching yoga for more than 17 years, practicing for three decades. Between 2014 and 2019, she taught yoga classes at Otago Corrections Facility. These days, she works behind the scenes with Yoga Education in Prisons Trust to help expand yoga programmes in prisons. "We love sharing the benefits of yoga with people who might not otherwise have access to it," she says. She says New Zealand's prison statistics and high levels of crime, combined with the success of yoga programmes in other countries, prompted the trust to introduce classes here. According to the Prison Yoga Project - a global non-profit promoting yoga in correctional settings - at least 11 countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, France and Australia, have adopted similar initiatives. In 2014, Dingemans lead her first yoga class inside a prison in Dunedin. "I was nervous and concerned … but it went smoothly," she recalls. "About 20 men participated, and they were all very attentive and respectful." She says many of the prisoners who attended her first class kept coming back. Initially, she encountered scepticism from some Corrections officers - but that soon changed. "After a while, they saw the change happening," she says. "From there, they were very supportive." Dingemans says inmates also offered encouraging feedback. "Many said yoga helped them sleep better and feel calmer and more confident," she says. Access to prisons became restricted during the Covid-19 pandemic, and in-person classes dwindled. John Sinclair is the chair of the Yoga Education in Prisons Trust. Photo: Supplied Sinclair says Yoga Education in Prisons Trust is still working to bring teachers back. "It's not an easy job recruiting teachers post-Covid," he says. If there are experienced teachers willing to volunteer, we need their help. "Many prisons are keen to bring yoga back, but finding the people to run those classes has been a challenge." Yoga Education in Prisons Trust has offered a correspondence course to prisoners for the past eight years, reaching more than 100 inmates. During the pandemic, the organisation also launched a video series that was uploaded to the prison TV system, with instructors filming sessions from their homes. In 2022, it partnered with the Department of Corrections to create a series of professionally produced yoga videos, ranging from 12 to 30 minutes. The project, Te Rokihau, made 14 yoga and meditation sessions available across all prisons in 2023. "We received some funding from the Corrections and made videos professionally for the project," Sinclair says. In 2023, 14 yoga and meditation education videos were made available in all prisons across New Zealand with a project titled "Te Rokihau". "Yoga classes in prisons are a constructive activity for people in prison to partake in voluntarily," a spokesperson for Corrections says. "Prison staff anecdotally report seeing benefits to prisoners who take part in these activities, which complement our wide range of other rehabilitation, reintegration, health and employment programmes," the spokesperson says. "Taking part in constructive activities like this can help prisoners to reduce aggression and tension." Sinclair also says Yoga Education in Prisons Trust hopes to train inmates to run classes for their peers. However, funding remains a barrier. "We're keen to do more, but we face many funding challenges," Sinclair says. Yoga is gaining popularity in many parts of the world, with about 1 in 6 adults now practicing yoga in the United States, according a 2024 survey by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In New Zealand, participation rates have remained steady. A 2022 survey titled "Sport New Zealand's Active NZ Changes in Participation" shows the number of adults aged 18 years and older who participates in yoga weekly has remained stable between 2018 and 2022, totalling 6-8 percent. However, Dingemans has seen an uptick in people taking up her classes at her practice, Soma Yoga. "In the beginning, it was a lot smaller, and I was only running one class," she says. "Now I'm doing five. People are noticing the benefits [of yoga] and adding it as a well-being practice." Yoga enthusiasts celebrate the International Day of Yoga at Parliament. Photo: Facebook / India in New Zealand On 21 June, yoga practitioners across New Zealand marked the 11th International Day of Yoga under the global theme "Yoga for One Earth, One Health". The festivities were no different from previous years, with the Indian High Commission in Wellington partnering with organisations in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Hamilton, Dunedin, Invercargill, New Plymouth and Rotorua. The largest gathering in Auckland was held at the Mahatma Gandhi Centre. "We had a range of participants from children to seniors, including the consul general," said Puspa Lekinwala, president of the Auckland Indian Association. "Yoga holds deep significance for the Indian community," she said. "Once you start practicing, you'll notice changes - a greater sense of ease, improved flexibility and a heightened awareness of your body." A celebration in Parliament's banquet hall drew more than 200 attendees, including MPs Ginny Andersen and Chris Bishop, Indian High Commissioner Neeta Bhushan, parliamentary staff and yoga enthusiasts. The day was also marked in Samoa, Vanuatu and the Cook Islands.
