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Business Recorder
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
The strait of no return
When US intelligence revealed that Iran had loaded sea mines near the Strait of Hormuz on July 1, it sent an unmistakable message to the West: Tehran is not backing down after US and Israeli airstrikes devastated its nuclear facilities. Although the Strait remains open, the mere threat of closure is enough to send ripples across global markets. The conflict might appear as yet another Middle Eastern flashpoint, but the trickle-down effects are going to be much worse. Asia's largest economies – China, India, Japan, and South Korea – stand dangerously exposed. Around 80% of their Middle Eastern oil passes through the Strait, an artery vital to global trade. Even a short disruption would send economic shockwaves beyond Tehran, Washington, or Tel Aviv. Vice President JD Vance recently pronounced the 'Trump Doctrine' in Ohio, redefining American foreign policy. The new doctrine prioritizes aggressive diplomacy and, if necessary, deploying overwhelming military force followed by a swift withdrawal. Iran's recent defiance near the Strait of Hormuz is already putting the Trump Doctrine on trial, testing how far Washington will go to enforce its red lines. Earlier, Trump demonstrated a tough stance, ordering airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites, offering the first glimpse of how this doctrine might unfold. Yet, despite US escalation, CIA analyses indicate the Iranian nuclear programme was set back only a few months; not years, as Trump had claimed. The Pentagon, however, has shown prudence. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed Trump's optimism, whereas General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, noted cautiously that 'all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction,' though he stopped short of confirming the end of Iran's nuclear ambitions. Tehran retaliated by expelling UN nuclear inspectors, heightening fears of a renewed nuclear drive. Trump's foreign policy does not operate in isolation however. His aggressive stance abroad corresponds closely with domestic priorities articulated in the new 'Big Beautiful Bill,' a fiscal package designed to operationalize his doctrine by reinforcing energy independence and bolstering defense production, at the expense of domestic welfare. After overcoming resistance from Republican hardliners, the bill also includes $4.5 trillion tax cut, substantial hikes in defense spending, and dramatic increases in border security funding, offset by over $1 trillion in cuts from Medicaid and reductions in food assistance for low-income Americans. This strategy seems politically calculated: reassuring Trump's MAGA (Make America Great Again) base amid sliding poll numbers by projecting decisiveness abroad and economic insulation at home. Yet, such insulation remains a luxury Asia cannot afford. The implications extend far beyond Iran. Trump's new doctrine has alarmed other countries, especially those non-signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran, despite being an NPT signatory, braved intense punishment, prompting justified caution in countries like Pakistan, a declared nuclear power outside the NPT framework. Recently questioned about potential threats against Pakistan's nuclear facilities, Pakistan's military spokesperson Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry firmly dismissed the possibility, stating unequivocally, 'There is absolutely no concern whatsoever in the military that Pakistan can become the next target.' He further warned that any attempt against nuclear-armed Pakistan would have 'horrific consequences.' Islamabad's cautious yet active diplomacy stems from strategic necessity, heightened by recent events. Only in January 2024, Pakistan and Iran exchanged missile fire across their shared 905-kilometer border, each accusing the other of harboring militant groups. But geopolitical tides shift swiftly; the sudden eruption of simultaneous regional crises, including Pakistan's conflict with India in May and the recent Israel-Iran hostilities, has unexpectedly brought Tehran and Islamabad closer than ever. Following the devastating Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, Pakistan swiftly condemned the aggression, calling it a violation of Iran's sovereignty and urging the UN to intervene. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar publicly signaled Islamabad's willingness to facilitate negotiations, conveying Iran's openness to dialogue should Israeli hostilities cease. Although past mistrust, especially concerning border security and separatist sanctuaries, hasn't vanished overnight, the current environment of heightened tensions has created strategic congruence between these uneasy neighbors. Despite these tensions, it is pertinent to note that Pakistan's imports from Iran grew by 18% last fiscal year, indicating resilient economic ties between the two nations. According to Pakistan's Ministry of Commerce, imports from Iran reached $66 million in June 2025 alone, maintaining steady trade through geopolitical disruptions. Critical land routes, especially the Taftan border crossing, remain operational, essential for sustaining these imports. Total imports from Iran reached $1.222 billion from July 2024 to June 2025, reflecting growing demand for energy supplies, fertilizers, construction materials, and agricultural staples sourced from Iran. Experts highlight that energy imports, mainly refined petroleum and natural gas, account for over 40% of this trade. If Trump, under his renewed doctrine, deals with a heavy hand towards Iran, the resulting regional crisis can jeopardize not just Pakistan's energy security, but the stability of other Asian countries too. For China, a Hormuz closure would pose an immediate economic threat; around 90% of Iran's oil exports, over five million barrels a day, transit via Hormuz. Senator Marco Rubio, sensing the potential fallout in June, urged Beijing to persuade Tehran directly against closure, highlighting severe consequences for China's economy. Such vulnerability emerges at a moment when China's economic recovery remains fragile and Beijing is increasingly wary of Trump's unpredictable military assertiveness, especially following recent US actions in Iran and implicit warnings towards Taiwan. India also walks a tightrope. Despite diversifying energy sources from the US, Russia, and elsewhere, India still relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil, with approximately 35% passing through Hormuz. As energy analyst Vibhuti Garg notes, India remains critically tethered to fossil fuels. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in retaliation could trigger inflation precisely when India's economy is recovering from recent shocks. Japan and South Korea import over 80% of their energy from abroad; they face even greater risks. Nearly 75% of Japan's oil and 70% of South Korea's crude transit Hormuz, according to France 24. South Korea's renewable energy share remains low at 9%, significantly behind the OECD's 33% average, leaving it especially vulnerable. Any disruption in Hormuz could rapidly choke manufacturing output and escalate consumer prices, dealing severe blows to these two major Asian economies. Trump's latest bill appears to reinvigorate his electoral base, although it would come at substantial political and geopolitical costs. Days after the strikes, Trump's approval ratings dropped to 44%, reflecting Americans' skepticism over US involvement in another Middle Eastern conflict. The administration's tough stance on Iran – backed by record defense spending – caters to voters who are hungry for strength abroad but wary of another endless war. While Tehran has historically issued threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, recent parliamentary support to block the strait have posed a real risk, albeit symbolic. Experts like Edward L. Morse of Hartree Partners suggest the threat is overstated given Iran's own economic dependence on open shipping lanes. Nevertheless, even symbolic actions dramatically raise the risk of miscalculation. Ultimately, Trump's muscular approach risks triggering instability he claims to prevent, potentially forcing nuclear-armed non-NPT states like Pakistan into defensive postures, further complicating global security. The Trump Doctrine favors swift strikes and rapid withdrawals, but the Strait of Hormuz cannot be so easily attacked without mitigating the consequences. Asia, heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, now faces potential economic turmoil; collateral damage from a geopolitical gamble that has, even before full escalation, already gone too far. (The writer is an educationist and an economist) Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Al Mayadeen
7 days ago
- Politics
- Al Mayadeen
US admits bunker-buster bombs likely ineffective on Iran Isfahan site
In a significant admission of strategic weakness, the United States military has acknowledged that its most powerful conventional bombs are incapable of reaching Iran's deeply fortified nuclear facilities, particularly the underground complex in Isfahan. The revelation was made during a classified congressional briefing on Thursday, where Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine told lawmakers that the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 30,000-pound bomb engineered to penetrate hardened bunkers, would likely have been ineffective against the Isfahan site due to its extraordinary depth and reinforced structure. According to sources familiar with the briefing, US officials assessed that the site, allegedly housing up to 60% of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, was buried too deep for any known American munitions to reach. Instead of deploying its $27 million-per-round MOP arsenal, the US relied on Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a submarine, an implicit acknowledgment that even some of the most advanced air-delivered munitions were not up to the task. Observers argue that the choice exposes a fundamental limitation in US conventional strike capabilities when confronting Iran's deeply entrenched and strategically dispersed nuclear infrastructure. Contrary to public claims by President Trump that the strikes "completely obliterated" Iran's nuclear sites, satellite images released by Planet Labs and Maxar Technologies reveal that Iran swiftly began clearing damage and restoring access at the Fordow and Isfahan facilities. Recent photos show excavators and vehicles operating near tunnel entrances at Fordow, indicating continued Iranian access and operational control just days after the attacks. Speaking to CNN, weapons expert Jeffrey Lewis noted a "moderate number of vehicles" present at Fordow, while Maxar images documented clear construction activity, casting further doubt on the notion of lasting degradation. Planet Labs pass from 27 June shows the western tunnel at the Esfahan UCF complex cleared and open. The day-earlier Airbus shot had it back-filled and tunnel complex beneath Isfahan is reportedly 100 meters deep, far deeper than Fordow and beyond the effective… the same time, intelligence assessments have steadily undercut the White House's narrative. A Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report leaked to CNN found that the strikes failed to destroy the core infrastructure of Iran's nuclear program or eliminate its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. While some surface-level damage was inflicted, Iran's centrifuges remained largely intact. The report concluded that the attacks set back the nuclear program by "months rather than years." Read more: Trump demands CNN reporter be fired for revealing Iran strike failure The picture emerging from leaked intelligence and visual confirmation is at odds with continued political bravado. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who previously claimed Iran's nuclear program had been "obliterated", later downgraded the assessment to "moderate to severe" damage. Trump, speaking at a NATO summit in The Hague, admitted US intelligence remains "very inconclusive" about the actual results, though he still compared the strikes to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Senators have also begun to acknowledge the mismatch between military claims and reality. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy stated candidly after the briefing, "Some of Iran's capabilities are so far underground that we can never reach them." Meanwhile, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who initially echoed Trump's triumphalism, admitted, "I don't know where the 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium exists." As Iran resumes operations at Fordow and retains unscathed access to its Isfahan complex, the US finds itself confronting not only the limits of its military tools but also a deepening credibility gap between its battlefield rhetoric and strategic outcomes.
The Independent
11-07-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
South Korea, US and Japan hold aerial drill in demonstration of strength against North Korea
Top South Korean, U.S. and Japanese military officers urged North Korea to cease all unlawful activities that threaten regional security, as the three nations flew advanced warplanes for a joint exercise in a show of force against the North. The development came Friday as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was to travel to North Korea amid booming military and other cooperation between the two countries that have raised concerns among their neighbors. During their regular meeting in Seoul on Friday, the chairmen of the joint chiefs of staff from South Korea, the U.S. and Japan discussed North Korea's deployment of troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine and Russia's potential transfer of military technology to North Korea in return. 'They urged the DPRK to immediately cease all unlawful activities to destabilize the Korean Peninsula, the Indo-Pacific, and beyond, and pledged to continue working together to respond to the DPRK's threats,' the three top military officers said in a joint statement. DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's formal name. North Korea and Russia have grown sharply closer in recent years, with North Korea supplying thousands of troops and ammunitions to Russia in return for economic and military assistance. Seoul, Washington and their partners worry Russia might provide North Korea with sensitive technologies that can enhance its nuclear and missile programs as well. The three joint chiefs of staff — South Korea's Kim Myung-soo, the United States' Dan Caine and Japan's Yoshida Yoshihide — discussed various ways to deepen their cooperation in order to ensure peace and stability in the region, according to the joint statement. Also Friday, the three countries staged a trilateral aerial drill in international waters off South Korea's southern Jeju island. The training, which involves America's nuclear-capable B-52H bomber, is meant to improve the deterrence and response capabilities against North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile programs, according to South Korea's Defense Ministry. In recent years, South Korea, the U.S. and Japan have been expanding or restarting their regular military training exercises to cope with North Korea's enlarging nuclear arsenal. North Korea views such U.S.-led drills as invasion rehearsals and often responds with missile tests. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, was to begin a three-day trip to North Korea on Friday, according to North Korean and Russian state media reports earlier this week. Russia's Tass news agency, citing Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, reported Wednesday that Lavrov's North Korea trip was part of the second round of 'strategic dialogue' with his North Korean counterpart Choe Son Hui. Lavrov and Choe's earlier meeting took place in November in Moscow. Some South Korean analysts said Lavrov may discuss arranging a visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to Russia.
New York Post
05-07-2025
- Politics
- New York Post
North Korean man crosses heavily fortified border into South Korea
An unidentified North Korean man crossed the heavily fortified land border separating the two Koreas and is in South Korean custody, the South's military said Friday. The South's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the military identified and tracked the individual near the central-west section of the military demarcation line and conducted a 'guiding operation' before taking the person into custody Thursday night. It said authorities plan to investigate the border crossing and did not immediately say whether they view the incident as a defection attempt. 3 An unidentified North Korean man crossed the heavily fortified land border separating the two Koreas and is in South Korean custody, according to reports. AFP via Getty Images The Joint Chiefs said it notified the U.S.-led United Nations Command about the incident and had not detected any immediate signs of unusual military activity by the North. According to the Joint Chiefs, a South Korean military team approached the unarmed North Korean man after detecting him and, after identifying themselves as South Korean troops, guided him safely out of the mine-strewn Demilitarized Zone that divides the two Koreas. Border tensions have flared in recent months as the two Koreas traded Cold War-style psychological warfare, with North Korea sending thousands of trash-filled balloons toward the South and South Korea blasting anti-Pyongyang propaganda through loudspeakers. Since taking office last month, South Korea's new liberal President Lee Jae Myung has made efforts to rebuild trust with North Korea, halting the frontline loudspeaker broadcasts and moving to ban activists from flying balloons carrying propaganda leaflets across the border. In April, South Korean troops fired warning shots to repel about 10 North Korean soldiers who briefly crossed the military demarcation line. The South's military said the soldiers returned to North Korean territory without incident and that the North didn't return fire. 3 The South's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the military identified and tracked the individual near the central-west section of the military demarcation line and conducted a 'guiding operation' before taking the person into custody. AP 3 South Korean authorities plan to investigate the border crossing and did not immediately say whether they view the incident as a defection attempt. AP In June last year, North Korean troops crossed the border three times, prompting South Korea to fire warning shots. Experts suggested these crossings may have been accidental, occurring as North Korean troops added anti-tank barriers, planted mines, and carried out other work to bolster border defenses amid escalating tensions between the Koreas. Diplomacy between the war-divided Koreas has derailed since the collapse of denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang in 2019, which prompted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to accelerate the expansion of his military nuclear program and threaten nuclear conflict toward Washington and Seoul. South Korea's previous conservative government responded by strengthening its combined military exercises with the United States and Japan, which the North condemned as invasion rehearsals.
Yomiuri Shimbun
05-07-2025
- Politics
- Yomiuri Shimbun
North Korean Man Crosses the Heavily Fortified Border to South Korea
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — An unidentified North Korean man crossed the heavily fortified land border separating the two Koreas and is in South Korean custody, the South's military said Friday. The South's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the military identified and tracked the individual near the central-west section of the military demarcation line and conducted a 'guiding operation' before taking the person into custody Thursday night. It said authorities plan to investigate the border crossing and did not immediately say whether they view the incident as a defection attempt. The Joint Chiefs said it notified the U.S.-led United Nations Command about the incident and had not detected any immediate signs of unusual military activity by the North. According to the Joint Chiefs, a South Korean military team approached the unarmed North Korean man after detecting him and, after identifying themselves as South Korean troops, guided him safely out of the mine-strewn Demilitarized Zone that divides the two Koreas. Border tensions have flared in recent months as the two Koreas traded Cold War-style psychological warfare, with North Korea sending thousands of trash-filled balloons toward the South and South Korea blasting anti-Pyongyang propaganda through loudspeakers. Since taking office last month, South Korea's new liberal President Lee Jae Myung has made efforts to rebuild trust with North Korea, halting the frontline loudspeaker broadcasts and moving to ban activists from flying balloons carrying propaganda leaflets across the border. In April, South Korean troops fired warning shots to repel about 10 North Korean soldiers who briefly crossed the military demarcation line. The South's military said the soldiers returned to North Korean territory without incident and that the North didn't return fire. In June last year, North Korean troops crossed the border three times, prompting South Korea to fire warning shots. Experts suggested these crossings may have been accidental, occurring as North Korean troops added anti-tank barriers, planted mines and carried out other work to bolster border defenses amid escalating tensions between the Koreas. Diplomacy between the war-divided Koreas has derailed since the collapse of denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang in 2019, which prompted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to accelerate the expansion of his military nuclear program and threaten nuclear conflict toward Washington and Seoul. South Korea's previous conservative government responded by strengthening its combined military exercises with the United States and Japan, which the North condemned as invasion rehearsals.
