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Indian Express
4 days ago
- Business
- Indian Express
Why Trump has changed his tune on Iran
After less than two months in office, US President Donald Trump made a 'sudden' offer to Iran's Supreme Leader for direct US-Iran talks on the Iranian nuclear weapons programme and easing of US sanctions. So far, five rounds of US-Iran talks have been led by the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Though the talks remained on track up to the third round, both sides started hardening their stances before the fourth round, held just a day before Trump's three-nation Gulf tour. However, it was before the fifth round that both drew irreconcilable red lines about Iranian enrichment capability. While Witkoff stressed that Iran can't have any enrichment capability, Araghchi tweeted 'no enrichment, no deal'. Despite serious doubts, the fifth round took place on May 23. It appears that the talks did not collapse and both sides have taken back proposals to ponder over. Will the talks continue and could they succeed? In 2015, the US and other global powers had stitched together a Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) deal with Iran to bring its nuclear programme under stricter international inspections. This was to ensure that Iran pursued only a peaceful civil nuclear programme. In return, Iran got relief from the sanctions. However, in 2018, based on 'consultation with Middle Eastern allies' — a reference to Saudi Arabia and Israel — Trump had walked out of the deal unilaterally, calling it 'defective'. Other parties to the deal could not salvage it and, faced with US sanctions, Iran reduced its openness to international scrutiny. The geopolitics of the Middle East has undergone a sea change since Trump's first term and so has his approach to solving conflicts. The genocide in Gaza has united the Sunni Arab states behind a two-state solution. China has successfully brokered a Saudi-Iran rapprochement. Iran has gone on a diplomatic overdrive to build a better understanding with Sunni Arab states, including on its nuclear programme. These factors created favourable conditions for US-Iran talks. Just before his Gulf tour, Trump had hinted at potential consultations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar on the issue. During his tour, Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud publicly supported the US-Iran talks. In Doha, applauding the Emir of Qatar's strong push for diplomacy with Iran, Trump assured protection of Qatar's interests. In early March, Qatar PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani had warned against targeting Iranian nuclear facilities as that could contaminate the waters of the Gulf and threaten the lives of people in Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait. The three states with minimal natural water reserves depend on desalinated water drawn from the Gulf. Apart from other factors, Trump has also done favours for the Gulf states to try and secure their backing for the US-Iran nuclear deal. This includes ongoing talks for a Saudi nuclear deal, a six-month waiver on sanctions for Syria and a personal meeting between Trump and Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa (once a designated person) along with the Saudi crown prince. More importantly, the US has its own security interests riding on a good deal with Iran. A detailed assessment made by the US Intelligence Community (IC) put out in March portrayed Iran as part of a pack of 'adversaries' — along with Russia, China and North Korea — 'who were individually and collectively challenging US interests'. The assessment observed that growing cooperation between and among these adversaries was increasing their 'fortitude against the United States (and so was)… the potential for hostilities with any one of them drawing in another', and pressuring other global actors to choose sides. Engaging Iran as a part of a broader axis that includes Russia may be an important factor guiding Trump's aggressive diplomacy while upping trade and non-trade wars with China. The assessment also concluded that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wants to avoid embroiling Iran in an 'expanded, direct conflict' with the US and its allies and has not yet authorised a nuclear weapons programme that he had suspended in 2003. Iran, as per the assessment, was not building a nuclear weapon and can't do it without a decision by the Supreme Leader. However, Iran was likely to continue research and development of chemical and biological agents for offensive purposes. At the start of the talks, Witkoff had publicly stated that Iran did not need more than 3.67 per cent enriched uranium for civil nuclear purposes and that verification was required for 'reported' enriched uranium up to 20 per cent and 60 per cent. He also outlined the need for verification on weaponisation, delivery systems and nuclear triggers that Iran might possess. Iran's establishment has a lot riding on maintaining enrichment capability for peaceful uses as well as asserting its sovereignty to its people. In addition to 3.67 per cent enriched uranium, Iran, like other nations, would also like to make or be able to import around 20 per cent enriched uranium for medical use. The discussions appear to be now focussed on 'specificities' and hence, will require tough negotiations by both parties. By taking maximalist positions, both sides seem to be insulating this sensitive phase of negotiations from potential sabotage. Trump, too, has said he 'warned' Israel against any pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to give US diplomacy a chance to succeed. (The writer is a security analyst and former director general of police)
Japan Times
03-05-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
How Trump blindsided Netanyahu with his Iran nuclear gamble
U.S. President Donald Trump blindsided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month with a gamble on immediately opening negotiations with Iran. Now, the success of those talks hinges on winning a handful of key concessions to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb, eight sources said. The pivot to negotiations with Iran in April was a shock for Netanyahu, who had flown to Washington seeking Trump's backing for military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and learned less than 24 hours before a joint White House press event that U.S. talks with Iran were starting within days, four sources familiar with the matter said. Tehran's leadership remains deeply concerned that Netanyahu may launch a strike — deal or no deal, a senior Iranian security official, said. However, in just three weeks, the U.S. and Iran have held three rounds of talks aimed at preventing Tehran from building a nuclear weapon in return for sanctions relief. A fourth round is expected to take place in Rome soon. Officials and diplomats from all sides of the negotiations were interviewed for this story. All requested anonymity to speak about delicate ongoing conversations. An initial framework under discussion preserves the core of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) — scrapped by Trump in 2018 during his first term, eight sources said. A deal may not look radically different to the former pact, which he called the worst in history, but would extend duration to 25 years, tighten verification, and expand so-called sunset clauses that pause but don't completely dismantle aspects of Iran's nuclear program, all the sources said. Under the terms being discussed, Iran would limit stockpile size and centrifuge types, and dilute, export or seal its 60% uranium stock under unprecedented International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scrutiny — all in exchange for substantial sanctions relief, all the sources said. The U.S. State Department, Iran's foreign ministry and Netanyahu's office did not respond to requests for comment. Dennis Ross, a former U.S. negotiator under both Republicans and Democrats, said that any new agreement must go further than the JCPOA by imposing a permanent, structural change in Tehran's nuclear capabilities — shrinking its infrastructure to the point where developing a bomb is no longer a practical option. "Anything less would leave the threshold threat intact," he said. But several red lines are emerging that negotiators will have to circumvent to reach a deal and avert future military action. Foremost is the question of Iran's capacity to enrich uranium, something Washington and Israel say must stop entirely, leaving Iran reliant on imported uranium for Bushehr, its only existing nuclear power plant, located on the Gulf coast. Netanyahu is demanding "zero enrichment' and a Libya-style deal that dismantles Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Iran says its right to enrich is not negotiable. However the size of the uranium stockpile, shipping stocks out of the country and the number of centrifuges are under discussion, three Iranian officials said. Under proposals discussed in rounds of talks in April, Iran would cap enrichment at 3.67%, in line with the JCPOA, all the sources said, including three Iranian officials. Tehran is also open to granting the IAEA expanded access to its nuclear sites, the Iranian sources said. The proposals do not seek to dismantle Tehran's nuclear infrastructure entirely as Israel and some U.S. officials want, but aim to lock in permanent constraints on uranium enrichment that deter any breakout, the sources said. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff appeared to acknowledge that position in comments last month, but later said Iran must "stop and eliminate" enrichment. One way out could be for Iran to accept long breaks to the enrichment program, through an extension of sunset clauses, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and the founding director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. A reactor at a nuclear power plant in Bushehr, Iran, in 2009. | Reuters "The Iranians, if they were smart, they would settle for much longer sunset clauses going into the future," Vatanka said, emphasizing the importance of each side being able to claim victory in the talks. Another possible compromise could involve Iran retaining minimal enrichment, with 5,000 centrifuges, while importing the rest of the enriched uranium, possibly from Russia, one of the three Iranian sources, a senior security official, said. In return for limits on enrichment, Tehran has demanded watertight guarantees Trump would not again ditch a nuclear pact, the three Iranian officials said. Among the red lines mandated by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is reducing the amount of enriched uranium it stores to below the level agreed to in the 2015 deal, the three sources said. Iran has been able to "significantly" increase the amount of uranium it can enrich to 60% purity, the IAEA said in December. The JCPOA only permitted Iran to accumulate enriched uranium produced by its first generation IR-1 centrifuges, but now Iran is using far more advanced models banned under the 2015 deal. A senior regional source close to Tehran said the current debate over Iran's uranium stockpiles centers on whether Iran "will keep a portion of it — diluted — inside the country while sending another portion abroad, possibly to Russia." According to the source, Iran has even floated the idea of selling enriched uranium to the United States. Iran currently operates around 15,000 centrifuges. Under the JCPOA, Iran was allowed to operated around 6,000. "Essentially, the negotiations are shaping into a "JCPOA 2' with some additions that would allow Trump to present it as a victory, while Iran could still keep its right to enrichment," the senior Iranian official said. Another sticking point relates to Iran's ballistic missile manufacturing capacity. Washington and Israel say Iran should stop making missiles. Iran counters that it has a right to self-defense. One Iranian official previously said it would not go beyond the requirements of the 2015 deal, offering only to avoid building missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads as a "gesture of goodwill." Washington is pressing to include the ballistic missile program in the talks, but Tehran "continues to reject any discussion," said one regional security official. "The problem," he added, "is that without addressing the missile issue, Trump cannot claim that the new deal goes beyond the JCPOA." Former negotiator Ross points out the contradiction: Trump abandoned the JCPOA for being too weak, and as a result now faces a reality where Tehran stands at the threshold of nuclear weapons capability. "Accepting a deal that mirrors or softens the original would be politically indefensible," he said, suggesting a deal must slash centrifuges from 20,000 to 1,000, ship out all enriched stockpiles, and impose intrusive, penalty-backed inspections. Vatanka, the analyst, likened Iran's current predicament to the 1988 decision by the regime's founder, Ruhollah Khomeini, to accept a ceasefire with Iraq — a moment he famously likened to drinking "the bitter chalice of poison." "It's about survival," Vatanka said. "It's not capitulation." Diplomats say Netanyahu sees a rare opening: last year's military campaigns crippled Iran's air defenses, and decimated Hezbollah's missile arsenal — Tehran's primary deterrent. "This is a historic window for Israel to strike Iran's nuclear sites," said an official in the Middle East. The United States he said, opposes such a move for several reasons — chief among them the concerns of Gulf Arab states, which Washington cannot ignore given its deep strategic and economic ties in the region. "Still, it must weigh Israel's security calculations," he said. "So while the U.S. may not take part directly, it could offer indirect support. It would be a difficult operation for Israel — but not an impossible one." The U.S. military has deployed assets in recent weeks to reinforce the Middle East. The Pentagon has deployed six B-2 bombers to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia — a location used in the past to support its military operations in the Middle East. Additionally, the U.S. currently has two aircraft carriers in the region and has moved in air defense systems from Asia. Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Farsi-speaking Middle East expert, warned that a strike may slow Iran's program, but won't eliminate it. "You cannot bomb know-how," he said. "The knowledge is there. Iran has mastered uranium enrichment."
Straits Times
02-05-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
How Trump blindsided Netanyahu with his Iran nuclear gamble
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump talks to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a meeting where Trump announced nuclear talks with Iran, Washington, U.S., April 7, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt/File Photo WASHINGTON - U.S. President Donald Trump blindsided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with his decision to immediately open negotiations with Iran last month. Now, the talks hinge on winning key concessions that would prevent the Islamic Republic ever developing a nuclear bomb, eight sources said. The pivot to negotiations with Iran in April was a shock for Netanyahu, who had flown to Washington seeking Trump's backing for military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and learned less than 24 hours before a joint White House press event that U.S. talks with Iran were starting within days, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Tehran's leadership remains deeply concerned that Netanyahu may launch a strike - deal or no deal, a senior Iranian security official, said. However, in just three weeks, the U.S. and Iran have held three rounds of talks aimed at preventing Tehran from building a nuclear weapon in return for sanctions relief. A fourth round is expected to take place in Rome soon. For this story, Reuters spoke to officials and diplomats from all sides of the negotiations who disclosed previously unreported details under discussion. All requested anonymity to speak about delicate ongoing conversations. An initial framework under discussion preserves the core of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) - scrapped by Trump in 2018 during his first term, eight sources said. A deal may not look radically different to the former pact, which he called the worst in history, but would extend duration to 25 years, tighten verification, and expand so-called sunset clauses that pause but don't completely dismantle aspects of Iran's nuclear program, all the sources said. Under the terms being discussed, Iran would limit stockpile size and centrifuge types, and dilute, export or seal its 60 percent uranium stock under unprecedented International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scrutiny - all in exchange for substantial sanctions relief, all the sources said. The U.S. State Department, Iran's foreign ministry and Netanyahu's office did not respond to requests for comment. Dennis Ross, a former negotiator under both Republicans and Democrats, said that any new agreement must go further than the JCPOA by imposing a permanent, structural change in Tehran's nuclear capabilities - shrinking its infrastructure to the point where developing a bomb is no longer a practical option. "Anything less would leave the threshold threat intact," he told Reuters. But several red lines are emerging that negotiators will have to circumvent to reach a deal and avert future military action. Foremost is the question of Iran's capacity to enrich uranium, something Washington and Israel say must stop entirely, leaving Iran reliant on imported uranium for Bushehr, its only existing nuclear power plant, located on the Gulf coast. Netanyahu is demanding 'zero enrichment' and a Libya-style deal that dismantles Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Iran says its right to enrich is not negotiable. However the size of the uranium stockpile, shipping stocks out of the country and the number of centrifuges are under discussion, three Iranian officials said. Under proposals discussed in rounds of talks in April, Iran would cap enrichment at 3.67%, in line with the JCPOA, all the sources said, including three Iranian officials. Tehran is also open to granting the IAEA expanded access to its nuclear sites, the Iranian sources said. The proposals do not seek to dismantle Tehran's nuclear infrastructure entirely as Israel and some U.S. officials want, but aim to lock in permanent constraints on uranium enrichment that deter any breakout, the sources said. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff appeared to acknowledge that position in comments last week, but later said Iran must "stop and eliminate" enrichment. One way out could be for Iran to accept long breaks to the enrichment program, through an extension of sunset clauses, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and the founding director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. "The Iranians, if they were smart, they would settle for much longer sunset clauses going into the future," Vatanka said, emphasizing the importance of each side being able to claim victory in the talks. Another possible compromise could involve Iran retaining minimal enrichment, with 5,000 centrifuges, while importing the rest of the enriched uranium, possibly from Russia, one of the three Iranian sources, a senior security official, told Reuters. In return for limits on enrichment, Tehran has demanded watertight guarantees Trump would not again ditch a nuclear pact, the three Iranian officials said. Among the red lines mandated by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is reducing the amount of enriched uranium it stores to below the level agreed in the 2015 deal, the three sources said. Iran has been able to "significantly" increase the amount of uranium it can enrich to 60% purity, the IAEA said in December. The JCPOA only permitted Iran to accumulate enriched uranium produced by its first generation IR-1 centrifuges, but now Iran is using far more advanced models banned under the 2015 deal. A senior regional source close to Tehran said the current debate over Iran's uranium stockpiles centers on whether Iran "will keep a portion of it - diluted - inside the country while sending another portion abroad, possibly to Russia." According to the source, Iran has even floated the idea of selling enriched uranium to the United States. Iran currently operates around 15,000 centrifuges. Under the JCPOA Iran was allowed to operated around 6,000. "Essentially, the negotiations are shaping into a 'JCPOA 2' with some additions that would allow Trump to present it as a victory, while Iran could still keep its right to enrichment," the senior Iranian official said. Another sticking point relates to Iran's ballistic missile manufacturing capacity. Washington and Israel say Iran should stop making missiles. Iran counters that it has a right to self-defense. One Iranian official previously told Reuters it would not go beyond the requirements of the 2015 deal, offering only to avoid building missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads as a "gesture of goodwill." Washington is pressing to include the ballistic missile program in the talks, but Tehran "continues to reject any discussion," said one regional security official. "The problem", he added, "is that without addressing the missile issue, Trump cannot claim that the new deal goes beyond the JCPOA." Former negotiator Ross points out the contradiction: Trump abandoned the JCPOA for being too weak, and as a result now faces a reality where Tehran stands at the threshold of nuclear weapons capability. "Accepting a deal that mirrors or softens the original would be politically indefensible," he said, suggesting a deal must slash centrifuges from 20,000 to 1,000, ship out all enriched stockpiles, and impose intrusive, penalty-backed inspections. STRIKE RISK Vatanka, the analyst, likened Iran's current predicament to the 1988 decision by the regime's founder Ruhollah Khomeini to accept a ceasefire with Iraq - a moment he famously likened to drinking "the bitter chalice of poison" "It's about survival," Vatanka said. "It's not capitulation." Diplomats say Netanyahu sees a rare opening: last year's military campaigns crippled Iran's air defenses, and decimated Hezbollah's missile arsenal - Tehran's primary deterrent. "This is a historic window for Israel to strike Iran's nuclear sites," said an official in the Middle East. The United States he said, opposes such a move for several reasons - chief among them the concerns of Gulf Arab states, which Washington cannot ignore given its deep strategic and economic ties in the region. "Still, it must weigh Israel's security calculations," he said. "So while the U.S. may not take part directly, it could offer indirect support. It would be a difficult operation for Israel - but not an impossible one." The U.S. military has surged assets in recent weeks to reinforce the Middle East. The Pentagon has deployed six B-2 bombers to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia - a location used in the past to support its military operations in the Middle East. Additionally, the U.S. currently has two aircraft carriers in the region and has moved in air defense systems from Asia. Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Farsi-speaking Middle East expert, warned that a strike may slow Iran's program, but won't eliminate it. "You cannot bomb know-how," he said. "The knowledge is there. Iran has mastered uranium enrichment. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Time of India
02-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Inside Trump's high stakes nuclear gamble with Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump blindsided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with his decision to immediately open negotiations with Iran last month. Now, the talks hinge on winning key concessions that would prevent the Islamic Republic ever developing a nuclear bomb, eight sources said. #Pahalgam Terrorist Attack Pakistan reopens Attari-Wagah border to allow stranded citizens in India to return Key Jammu & Kashmir reservoirs' flushing to begin soon Air India sees Pakistan airspace ban costing it $600 mn over 12 months The pivot to negotiations with Iran in April was a shock for Netanyahu, who had flown to Washington seeking Trump's backing for military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and learned less than 24 hours before a joint White House press event that U.S. talks with Iran were starting within days, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Tehran's leadership remains deeply concerned that Netanyahu may launch a strike - deal or no deal, a senior Iranian security official, said. However, in just three weeks, the U.S. and Iran have held three rounds of talks aimed at preventing Tehran from building a nuclear weapon in return for sanctions relief. A fourth round is expected to take place in Rome soon. GIF89a����!�,D; 5 5 Next Stay Playback speed 1x Normal Back 0.25x 0.5x 1x Normal 1.5x 2x 5 5 / Skip Ads by For this story, Reuters spoke to officials and diplomats from all sides of the negotiations who disclosed previously unreported details under discussion. All requested anonymity to speak about delicate ongoing conversations. An initial framework under discussion preserves the core of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) - scrapped by Trump in 2018 during his first term, eight sources said. Live Events A deal may not look radically different to the former pact, which he called the worst in history, but would extend duration to 25 years, tighten verification, and expand so-called sunset clauses that pause but don't completely dismantle aspects of Iran's nuclear program, all the sources said. Under the terms being discussed, Iran would limit stockpile size and centrifuge types, and dilute, export or seal its 60 percent uranium stock under unprecedented International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scrutiny - all in exchange for substantial sanctions relief, all the sources said. The U.S. State Department, Iran's foreign ministry and Netanyahu's office did not respond to requests for comment. Dennis Ross, a former negotiator under both Republicans and Democrats, said that any new agreement must go further than the JCPOA by imposing a permanent, structural change in Tehran's nuclear capabilities - shrinking its infrastructure to the point where developing a bomb is no longer a practical option. "Anything less would leave the threshold threat intact," he told Reuters. But several red lines are emerging that negotiators will have to circumvent to reach a deal and avert future military action. Foremost is the question of Iran's capacity to enrich uranium, something Washington and Israel say must stop entirely, leaving Iran reliant on imported uranium for Bushehr, its only existing nuclear power plant, located on the Gulf coast. Netanyahu is demanding "zero enrichment" and a Libya-style deal that dismantles Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Iran says its right to enrich is not negotiable. However the size of the uranium stockpile, shipping stocks out of the country and the number of centrifuges are under discussion, three Iranian officials said. Under proposals discussed in rounds of talks in April, Iran would cap enrichment at 3.67%, in line with the JCPOA, all the sources said, including three Iranian officials. Tehran is also open to granting the IAEA expanded access to its nuclear sites, the Iranian sources said. The proposals do not seek to dismantle Tehran's nuclear infrastructure entirely as Israel and some U.S. officials want, but aim to lock in permanent constraints on uranium enrichment that deter any breakout, the sources said. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff appeared to acknowledge that position in comments last week, but later said Iran must "stop and eliminate" enrichment. One way out could be for Iran to accept long breaks to the enrichment program, through an extension of sunset clauses, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and the founding director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. "The Iranians, if they were smart, they would settle for much longer sunset clauses going into the future," Vatanka said, emphasizing the importance of each side being able to claim victory in the talks. Another possible compromise could involve Iran retaining minimal enrichment, with 5,000 centrifuges, while importing the rest of the enriched uranium, possibly from Russia, one of the three Iranian sources, a senior security official, told Reuters. In return for limits on enrichment, Tehran has demanded watertight guarantees Trump would not again ditch a nuclear pact, the three Iranian officials said. Among the red lines mandated by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is reducing the amount of enriched uranium it stores to below the level agreed in the 2015 deal, the three sources said. Iran has been able to "significantly" increase the amount of uranium it can enrich to 60% purity, the IAEA said in December. The JCPOA only permitted Iran to accumulate enriched uranium produced by its first generation IR-1 centrifuges, but now Iran is using far more advanced models banned under the 2015 deal. A senior regional source close to Tehran said the current debate over Iran's uranium stockpiles centers on whether Iran "will keep a portion of it - diluted - inside the country while sending another portion abroad, possibly to Russia." According to the source, Iran has even floated the idea of selling enriched uranium to the United States. Iran currently operates around 15,000 centrifuges. Under the JCPOA Iran was allowed to operated around 6,000. "Essentially, the negotiations are shaping into a "JCPOA 2" with some additions that would allow Trump to present it as a victory, while Iran could still keep its right to enrichment," the senior Iranian official said. Another sticking point relates to Iran's ballistic missile manufacturing capacity. Washington and Israel say Iran should stop making missiles. Iran counters that it has a right to self defense. One Iranian official previously told Reuters it would not go beyond the requirements of the 2015 deal, offering only to avoid building missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads as a "gesture of goodwill." Washington is pressing to include the ballistic missile program in the talks, but Tehran "continues to reject any discussion," said one regional security official. "The problem", he added, "is that without addressing the missile issue, Trump cannot claim that the new deal goes beyond the JCPOA." Former negotiator Ross points out the contradiction: Trump abandoned the JCPOA for being too weak, and as a result now faces a reality where Tehran stands at the threshold of nuclear weapons capability. "Accepting a deal that mirrors or softens the original would be politically indefensible," he said, suggesting a deal must slash centrifuges from 20,000 to 1,000, ship out all enriched stockpiles, and impose intrusive, penalty-backed inspections. STRIKE RISK Vatanka, the analyst, likened Iran's current predicament to the 1988 decision by the regime's founder Ruhollah Khomeini to accept a ceasefire with Iraq - a moment he famously likened to drinking "the bitter chalice of poison" "It's about survival," Vatanka said. "It's not capitulation." Diplomats say Netanyahu sees a rare opening: last year's military campaigns crippled Iran's air defenses, and decimated Hezbollah's missile arsenal - Tehran's primary deterrent. "This is a historic window for Israel to strike Iran's nuclear sites," said an official in the Middle East. The United States he said, opposes such a move for several reasons - chief among them the concerns of Gulf Arab states, which Washington cannot ignore given its deep strategic and economic ties in the region. "Still, it must weigh Israel's security calculations," he said. "So while the U.S. may not take part directly, it could offer indirect support. It would be a difficult operation for Israel - but not an impossible one." The U.S. military has surged assets in recent weeks to reinforce the Middle East. The Pentagon has deployed six B-2 bombers to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia - a location used in the past to support its military operations in the Middle East. Additionally, the U.S. currently has two aircraft carriers in the region and has moved in air defense systems from Asia. Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Farsi-speaking Middle East expert, warned that a strike may slow Iran's program, but won't eliminate it. "You cannot bomb know-how," he said. "The knowledge is there. Iran has mastered uranium enrichment.
Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Inside Trump's high stakes nuclear gamble with Iran
By Samia Nakhoul, Humeyra Pamuk and Parisa Hafezi WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump blindsided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with his decision to immediately open negotiations with Iran last month. Now, the talks hinge on winning key concessions that would prevent the Islamic Republic ever developing a nuclear bomb, eight sources said. The pivot to negotiations with Iran in April was a shock for Netanyahu, who had flown to Washington seeking Trump's backing for military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and learned less than 24 hours before a joint White House press event that U.S. talks with Iran were starting within days, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Tehran's leadership remains deeply concerned that Netanyahu may launch a strike - deal or no deal, a senior Iranian security official, said. However, in just three weeks, the U.S. and Iran have held three rounds of talks aimed at preventing Tehran from building a nuclear weapon in return for sanctions relief. A fourth round is expected to take place in Rome soon. For this story, Reuters spoke to officials and diplomats from all sides of the negotiations who disclosed previously unreported details under discussion. All requested anonymity to speak about delicate ongoing conversations. An initial framework under discussion preserves the core of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) - scrapped by Trump in 2018 during his first term, eight sources said. A deal may not look radically different to the former pact, which he called the worst in history, but would extend duration to 25 years, tighten verification, and expand so-called sunset clauses that pause but don't completely dismantle aspects of Iran's nuclear program, all the sources said. Under the terms being discussed, Iran would limit stockpile size and centrifuge types, and dilute, export or seal its 60 percent uranium stock under unprecedented International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scrutiny - all in exchange for substantial sanctions relief, all the sources said. The U.S. State Department, Iran's foreign ministry and Netanyahu's office did not respond to requests for comment. Dennis Ross, a former negotiator under both Republicans and Democrats, said that any new agreement must go further than the JCPOA by imposing a permanent, structural change in Tehran's nuclear capabilities - shrinking its infrastructure to the point where developing a bomb is no longer a practical option. "Anything less would leave the threshold threat intact," he told Reuters. But several red lines are emerging that negotiators will have to circumvent to reach a deal and avert future military action. Foremost is the question of Iran's capacity to enrich uranium, something Washington and Israel say must stop entirely, leaving Iran reliant on imported uranium for Bushehr, its only existing nuclear power plant, located on the Gulf coast. Netanyahu is demanding 'zero enrichment' and a Libya-style deal that dismantles Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Iran says its right to enrich is not negotiable. However the size of the uranium stockpile, shipping stocks out of the country and the number of centrifuges are under discussion, three Iranian officials said. Under proposals discussed in rounds of talks in April, Iran would cap enrichment at 3.67%, in line with the JCPOA, all the sources said, including three Iranian officials. Tehran is also open to granting the IAEA expanded access to its nuclear sites, the Iranian sources said. The proposals do not seek to dismantle Tehran's nuclear infrastructure entirely as Israel and some U.S. officials want, but aim to lock in permanent constraints on uranium enrichment that deter any breakout, the sources said. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff appeared to acknowledge that position in comments last week, but later said Iran must "stop and eliminate" enrichment. One way out could be for Iran to accept long breaks to the enrichment program, through an extension of sunset clauses, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and the founding director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. "The Iranians, if they were smart, they would settle for much longer sunset clauses going into the future," Vatanka said, emphasizing the importance of each side being able to claim victory in the talks. Another possible compromise could involve Iran retaining minimal enrichment, with 5,000 centrifuges, while importing the rest of the enriched uranium, possibly from Russia, one of the three Iranian sources, a senior security official, told Reuters. In return for limits on enrichment, Tehran has demanded watertight guarantees Trump would not again ditch a nuclear pact, the three Iranian officials said. Among the red lines mandated by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is reducing the amount of enriched uranium it stores to below the level agreed in the 2015 deal, the three sources said. Iran has been able to "significantly" increase the amount of uranium it can enrich to 60% purity, the IAEA said in December. The JCPOA only permitted Iran to accumulate enriched uranium produced by its first generation IR-1 centrifuges, but now Iran is using far more advanced models banned under the 2015 deal. A senior regional source close to Tehran said the current debate over Iran's uranium stockpiles centers on whether Iran "will keep a portion of it - diluted - inside the country while sending another portion abroad, possibly to Russia." According to the source, Iran has even floated the idea of selling enriched uranium to the United States. Iran currently operates around 15,000 centrifuges. Under the JCPOA Iran was allowed to operated around 6,000. "Essentially, the negotiations are shaping into a 'JCPOA 2' with some additions that would allow Trump to present it as a victory, while Iran could still keep its right to enrichment," the senior Iranian official said. Another sticking point relates to Iran's ballistic missile manufacturing capacity. Washington and Israel say Iran should stop making missiles. Iran counters that it has a right to self defense. One Iranian official previously told Reuters it would not go beyond the requirements of the 2015 deal, offering only to avoid building missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads as a "gesture of goodwill." Washington is pressing to include the ballistic missile program in the talks, but Tehran "continues to reject any discussion," said one regional security official. "The problem", he added, "is that without addressing the missile issue, Trump cannot claim that the new deal goes beyond the JCPOA." Former negotiator Ross points out the contradiction: Trump abandoned the JCPOA for being too weak, and as a result now faces a reality where Tehran stands at the threshold of nuclear weapons capability. "Accepting a deal that mirrors or softens the original would be politically indefensible," he said, suggesting a deal must slash centrifuges from 20,000 to 1,000, ship out all enriched stockpiles, and impose intrusive, penalty-backed inspections. STRIKE RISK Vatanka, the analyst, likened Iran's current predicament to the 1988 decision by the regime's founder Ruhollah Khomeini to accept a ceasefire with Iraq - a moment he famously likened to drinking "the bitter chalice of poison" "It's about survival," Vatanka said. "It's not capitulation." Diplomats say Netanyahu sees a rare opening: last year's military campaigns crippled Iran's air defenses, and decimated Hezbollah's missile arsenal - Tehran's primary deterrent. "This is a historic window for Israel to strike Iran's nuclear sites," said an official in the Middle East. The United States he said, opposes such a move for several reasons - chief among them the concerns of Gulf Arab states, which Washington cannot ignore given its deep strategic and economic ties in the region. "Still, it must weigh Israel's security calculations," he said. "So while the U.S. may not take part directly, it could offer indirect support. It would be a difficult operation for Israel - but not an impossible one." The U.S. military has surged assets in recent weeks to reinforce the Middle East. The Pentagon has deployed six B-2 bombers to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia - a location used in the past to support its military operations in the Middle East. Additionally, the U.S. currently has two aircraft carriers in the region and has moved in air defense systems from Asia. Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Farsi-speaking Middle East expert, warned that a strike may slow Iran's program, but won't eliminate it. "You cannot bomb know-how," he said. "The knowledge is there. Iran has mastered uranium enrichment.
