Why Trump has changed his tune on Iran

Indian Express

2 days ago

After less than two months in office, US President Donald Trump made a 'sudden' offer to Iran's Supreme Leader for direct US-Iran talks on the Iranian nuclear weapons programme and easing of US sanctions. So far, five rounds of US-Iran talks have been led by the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Though the talks remained on track up to the third round, both sides started hardening their stances before the fourth round, held just a day before Trump's three-nation Gulf tour. However, it was before the fifth round that both drew irreconcilable red lines about Iranian enrichment capability. While Witkoff stressed that Iran can't have any enrichment capability, Araghchi tweeted 'no enrichment, no deal'. Despite serious doubts, the fifth round took place on May 23. It appears that the talks did not collapse and both sides have taken back proposals to ponder over.
Will the talks continue and could they succeed?
In 2015, the US and other global powers had stitched together a Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) deal with Iran to bring its nuclear programme under stricter international inspections. This was to ensure that Iran pursued only a peaceful civil nuclear programme. In return, Iran got relief from the sanctions. However, in 2018, based on 'consultation with Middle Eastern allies' — a reference to Saudi Arabia and Israel — Trump had walked out of the deal unilaterally, calling it 'defective'. Other parties to the deal could not salvage it and, faced with US sanctions, Iran reduced its openness to international scrutiny.
The geopolitics of the Middle East has undergone a sea change since Trump's first term and so has his approach to solving conflicts. The genocide in Gaza has united the Sunni Arab states behind a two-state solution. China has successfully brokered a Saudi-Iran rapprochement. Iran has gone on a diplomatic overdrive to build a better understanding with Sunni Arab states, including on its nuclear programme. These factors created favourable conditions for US-Iran talks.
Just before his Gulf tour, Trump had hinted at potential consultations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar on the issue. During his tour, Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud publicly supported the US-Iran talks. In Doha, applauding the Emir of Qatar's strong push for diplomacy with Iran, Trump assured protection of Qatar's interests. In early March, Qatar PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani had warned against targeting Iranian nuclear facilities as that could contaminate the waters of the Gulf and threaten the lives of people in Qatar, the UAE and Kuwait. The three states with minimal natural water reserves depend on desalinated water drawn from the Gulf.
Apart from other factors, Trump has also done favours for the Gulf states to try and secure their backing for the US-Iran nuclear deal. This includes ongoing talks for a Saudi nuclear deal, a six-month waiver on sanctions for Syria and a personal meeting between Trump and Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa (once a designated person) along with the Saudi crown prince.
More importantly, the US has its own security interests riding on a good deal with Iran. A detailed assessment made by the US Intelligence Community (IC) put out in March portrayed Iran as part of a pack of 'adversaries' — along with Russia, China and North Korea — 'who were individually and collectively challenging US interests'. The assessment observed that growing cooperation between and among these adversaries was increasing their 'fortitude against the United States (and so was)… the potential for hostilities with any one of them drawing in another', and pressuring other global actors to choose sides. Engaging Iran as a part of a broader axis that includes Russia may be an important factor guiding Trump's aggressive diplomacy while upping trade and non-trade wars with China.
The assessment also concluded that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wants to avoid embroiling Iran in an 'expanded, direct conflict' with the US and its allies and has not yet authorised a nuclear weapons programme that he had suspended in 2003. Iran, as per the assessment, was not building a nuclear weapon and can't do it without a decision by the Supreme Leader. However, Iran was likely to continue research and development of chemical and biological agents for offensive purposes.
At the start of the talks, Witkoff had publicly stated that Iran did not need more than 3.67 per cent enriched uranium for civil nuclear purposes and that verification was required for 'reported' enriched uranium up to 20 per cent and 60 per cent. He also outlined the need for verification on weaponisation, delivery systems and nuclear triggers that Iran might possess. Iran's establishment has a lot riding on maintaining enrichment capability for peaceful uses as well as asserting its sovereignty to its people. In addition to 3.67 per cent enriched uranium, Iran, like other nations, would also like to make or be able to import around 20 per cent enriched uranium for medical use.
The discussions appear to be now focussed on 'specificities' and hence, will require tough negotiations by both parties. By taking maximalist positions, both sides seem to be insulating this sensitive phase of negotiations from potential sabotage. Trump, too, has said he 'warned' Israel against any pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to give US diplomacy a chance to succeed.
(The writer is a security analyst and former director general of police)