Latest news with #Jolts
Business Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
US job openings rebound in April; layoffs pick up
[WASHINGTON] US job openings increased in April, but layoffs picked up in a move consistent with a slowing labour market amid a dimming economic outlook because of tariffs. Job openings, a measure of labour demand, rose 191,000 to 7.391 million by the last day of April, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts report, on Tuesday (Jun 3). Data for March was revised higher to 7.200 million open positions instead of the previously reported 7.192 million. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.10 million vacancies. April's rise in vacancies was likely a correction following March's sharp decline. Hiring increased by 169,000 to 5.573 million in April. Layoffs rose 196,000 to 1.786 million. Economists say the on-gain, off-again manner in which the import duties are being implemented is making it difficult for businesses to plan ahead. A US trade court last week blocked most of President Donald Trump's tariffs from going into effect, ruling that the president overstepped his authority. But the tariffs were temporarily reinstated by a federal appeals court on Thursday, adding to the uncertainty facing businesses. Consumers are increasingly becoming less confident about the jobs market and the Conference Board's labour market differential has narrowed considerably this year. That could be reinforced by May's employment report, which is scheduled for release on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 130,000 jobs last month after advancing by 177,000 in April, a Reuters survey of economists showed. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2 per cent, with greater risks of a rise to 4.3 per cent. REUTERS
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Morgan Stanley reveals mid-year recession, interest rate cut forecast
This year has been tough. After back-to-back 20%-plus returns for the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024, concerns about stagflation and recession and the tariff debate have whipsawed the stock market. After the S&P 500 reached an all-time high in mid-February, growing worry that a slowing economy would dent sales and profits plus renewed inflation fear due to newly imposed tariffs sent the benchmark tumbling 19%, just shy of bear-market selloff was so fast and steep that most stocks became oversold, providing tinder for a major relief rally ignited when President Donald Trump temporarily paused many of his reciprocal tariffs. The index has since climbed nearly 20%, erasing much of the losses since February and lifting it into the black year-to-date. Regardless, the seismic pops and drops have taken a toll on investors' psyches, and despite the recent gains, economic worries persist. The jobs market has weakened over the past year, economic activity has slowed, and tariffs will likely remain in place, pressuring inflation and potentially backing the Federal Reserve into a corner. The backdrop has many on Wall Street, including Morgan Stanley, updating their forecasts. The major investment firm recently released a midyear update that includes economic targets and shatters hopes for more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is earning his pay this year. The Fed's dual mandate is low inflation and unemployment, two often competing goals. This year the tug-of-war between the two makes setting rates to encourage employment and discourage inflation particularly tough. Inflation has fallen markedly since it peaked above 8% in mid-2022. Still, progress has slowed and inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. In April, the Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 2.3%, nearly matching levels seen in the job market isn't nearly as strong as it was a year or two ago. Unemployment of 4.2% is historically low, but it's up from 3.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, in March 901,000 fewer jobs went unfilled compared with a year earlier, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Jolts report. Layoffs are also on the rise, climbing above 602,000 workers this year, up 87% from a year earlier. The cracks reflect a slowing in overall economic activity that's taking a toll on consumer confidence. First-quarter gross domestic product contracted 0.3%, well below the 3% growth witnessed last summer. The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Survey fell sharply to 50.8 in May, down 27% from one year ago. Americans now expect year-ahead inflation to be 7.3%, up from 6.5% last month. The risk of more job losses and inflation reasserting itself because of tariffs, including a 30% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico and autos, and a 10% baseline tariff, has tied the Fed's hands. If it cuts rates, as was widely expected earlier this year, it risks fanning inflationary flames. Raising rates might slow inflation but could force us into a recession. Reading the tea leaves isn't easy this year, but that's not stopping Wall Street from trying. Morgan Stanley, one of the largest investment banks, recently released a midyear update to its outlook for Fed interest-rate cuts and the US economy. The forecast won't win many fans hoping for lower mortgage rates or looking for new jobs. Chief US Economist Michael Gapen correctly targeted slower growth and stickier inflation entering 2025. Now, he says that the effective tariff rate of 13% will remain, pressuring the economy while avoiding a recession. Unfortunately, Gapen hasn't seen any real help from the Fed this year. He says the Fed will delay additional interest rate cuts "into 2026." More Experts Treasury Secretary delivers optimistic message on trade war progress Shark Tank's O'Leary sends strong message on economy Buffett's Berkshire has crucial advice for first-time homebuyers As for GDP, Morgan Stanley's growth target is tepid. According to a note sent to clients, Gapen "expects real GDP growth of 1% in 2025 and 2026 (Q4/Q4), with inflation peaking in 3Q25, finishing this year between 3% and 3.5%, and the unemployment rate rising gradually to 4.8% by the end of 2026." Higher unemployment and inflation above current levels aren't necessarily good news for investors hoping for revenue and profit growth tailwinds. Gapen does say, however, that the Fed will be forced to respond to the weaker economy next year, cutting "more deeply than markets currently project to a target range for the Federal Funds Rate of 2.5%-2.75% by end-2026." Currently, the Federal Funds Rate is 4.25% to 4.5%. Overall, his outlook means the US debt situation is worsening. He projects the deficit will climb to 7.1% of GDP from 6.3% in 2025, an "increase of $310 billion year on year."Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Miami Herald
21-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Morgan Stanley reveals mid-year recession, interest rate cut forecast
This year has been tough. After back-to-back 20%-plus returns for the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024, concerns about stagflation and recession and the tariff debate have whipsawed the stock market. After the S&P 500 reached an all-time high in mid-February, growing worry that a slowing economy would dent sales and profits plus renewed inflation fear due to newly imposed tariffs sent the benchmark tumbling 19%, just shy of bear-market territory. Related: Jim Cramer sends blunt message on US debt risk to stocks The selloff was so fast and steep that most stocks became oversold, providing tinder for a major relief rally ignited when President Donald Trump temporarily paused many of his reciprocal tariffs. The index has since climbed nearly 20%, erasing much of the losses since February and lifting it into the black year-to-date. Regardless, the seismic pops and drops have taken a toll on investors' psyches, and despite the recent gains, economic worries persist. The jobs market has weakened over the past year, economic activity has slowed, and tariffs will likely remain in place, pressuring inflation and potentially backing the Federal Reserve into a corner. The backdrop has many on Wall Street, including Morgan Stanley, updating their forecasts. The major investment firm recently released a midyear update that includes economic targets and shatters hopes for more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is earning his pay this year. The Fed's dual mandate is low inflation and unemployment, two often competing goals. This year the tug-of-war between the two makes setting rates to encourage employment and discourage inflation particularly tough. Inflation has fallen markedly since it peaked above 8% in mid-2022. Still, progress has slowed and inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. In April, the Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 2.3%, nearly matching levels seen in September. Related: Billionaire Ray Dalio has strong reaction to US debt rating cut Meanwhile, the job market isn't nearly as strong as it was a year or two ago. Unemployment of 4.2% is historically low, but it's up from 3.4% in 2023. Meanwhile, in March 901,000 fewer jobs went unfilled compared with a year earlier, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Jolts report. Layoffs are also on the rise, climbing above 602,000 workers this year, up 87% from a year earlier. The cracks reflect a slowing in overall economic activity that's taking a toll on consumer confidence. First-quarter gross domestic product contracted 0.3%, well below the 3% growth witnessed last summer. The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Survey fell sharply to 50.8 in May, down 27% from one year ago. Americans now expect year-ahead inflation to be 7.3%, up from 6.5% last month. The risk of more job losses and inflation reasserting itself because of tariffs, including a 30% tariff on China, 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico and autos, and a 10% baseline tariff, has tied the Fed's hands. If it cuts rates, as was widely expected earlier this year, it risks fanning inflationary flames. Raising rates might slow inflation but could force us into a recession. Reading the tea leaves isn't easy this year, but that's not stopping Wall Street from trying. Morgan Stanley, one of the largest investment banks, recently released a midyear update to its outlook for Fed interest-rate cuts and the US economy. The forecast won't win many fans hoping for lower mortgage rates or looking for new jobs. Chief US Economist Michael Gapen correctly targeted slower growth and stickier inflation entering 2025. Now, he says that the effective tariff rate of 13% will remain, pressuring the economy while avoiding a recession. Unfortunately, Gapen hasn't seen any real help from the Fed this year. He says the Fed will delay additional interest rate cuts "into 2026." More Experts Treasury Secretary delivers optimistic message on trade war progressShark Tank's O'Leary sends strong message on economyBuffett's Berkshire has crucial advice for first-time homebuyers As for GDP, Morgan Stanley's growth target is tepid. According to a note sent to clients, Gapen "expects real GDP growth of 1% in 2025 and 2026 (Q4/Q4), with inflation peaking in 3Q25, finishing this year between 3% and 3.5%, and the unemployment rate rising gradually to 4.8% by the end of 2026." Higher unemployment and inflation above current levels aren't necessarily good news for investors hoping for revenue and profit growth tailwinds. Gapen does say, however, that the Fed will be forced to respond to the weaker economy next year, cutting "more deeply than markets currently project to a target range for the Federal Funds Rate of 2.5%-2.75% by end-2026." Currently, the Federal Funds Rate is 4.25% to 4.5%. Overall, his outlook means the US debt situation is worsening. He projects the deficit will climb to 7.1% of GDP from 6.3% in 2025, an "increase of $310 billion year on year." Related: Secretary Bessent sends message on Walmart price increases due to tariffs The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
Yahoo
02-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock Market Today: Stocks end mixed as investors brace for tariff unveiling
Updated at 4:37 PM EDT by Rob Lenihan Stocks ended mixed Tuesday as investors entered the first trading day of the second quarter with caution and focused on upcoming tariff announcement from President Donald Trump. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 11.80 points, or 0.03%, to finish the session at 41,989.96, while the S&P 500 gained 0.38% to close at 5,633.07 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.87% to end the day at 17,449.89. Wall Street is focused on Trump's April 2 set for 3 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time in the White House Rose Garden. Updated at 12:25 PM EDT Stocks are finding a bid heading into the afternoon session, with the S&P 500 now up 37 points, or 0.65% and the Nasdaq rising 195 points, or 1.12%, thanks in part to a pullback in Treasury yields tied to the weaker ISM and Jolts readings that could pave the way for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The latest reading for the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, meanwhile, shows the economy on pace for a first quarter contraction of 3.7%, a stunning 5 percentage point swing from the fourth quarter expansion. Updated at 10:44 AM EDT Stocks are mixed into the second hour of trading following a weaker-than-expected reading of the ISM's manufacturing activity survey, while fell by 1.3 points to 49 points in March, just south of the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction, as well as a modestly softer February Jolts report. "The data isn't necessarily inspiring, but does create hope that we are stabilizing near current levels," said Brent Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro. "Investors aren't looking for red-hot data at this point, but rather, stabilization that suggests the economy will find its footing." "The current correction will be easier to stomach if the economy is able to avoid a meaningful deterioration and that starts with the labor market," he added. "From here, investors should keep a close eye on the trend in weekly jobless claims and take a close examination of Friday's jobs report." The S&P 500 was last marked 15 points, or 0.26% lower on the session, with the Nasdaq up 8 points and the Dow off 250 points. Updated at 9:33 AM EDT The S&P 500 was marked 26 points, or 0.347% lower, in the opening minutes of trading, with the Nasdaq down 55 points, or 0.31%, The Dow fell 230 points while the mid-cap Russell 2000 slipped 10 points, or 0.51%. Updated at 7:14 AM EDT Stock futures turned lower following a report from the Washington Post that suggested the Trump administration is planning a blanket 20% levy on most U.S. imports as part of so-called reciprocal tariff strategy. The paper also reported that the plan, which White House officials are still debating, could also include some form of tax refunds tied to the revenue it generates, as opposed to directing that revenue to reducing the deficit or repaying debt. Futures tied to the S&P 500 now suggest an opening-bell decline of around 20 points, with the Nasdaq called 65 points lower and the Dow priced for a 200-point pullback. Stock Market Today Stocks ended higher last night, with the S&P 500 rising 0.55% across a volatile session that still left the benchmark down 4.6% for the quarter, its worst performance in nearly two years. The tech-focused Nasdaq, however, slipped 0.14% into the close of trading to extend its first-quarter slump to around 10.5%. Wall Street's focus will now shift squarely toward Wednesday's tariff unveiling from President Donald Trump, set for 3 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time in the White House Rose Garden. That presentation is expected to offer at least some detail on levies planned against U.S. trading partners. With new levies on the auto, steel and aluminum sectors set to begin on Thursday, the delayed tariffs placed on Canada and Mexico and the increased duties on goods from China, Goldman Sachs estimates the average U.S. tariff will rise to around 15%, the highest in more than a century. "The real question is whether there will be blanket tariffs or a more detailed list at the country-product level," said Scott Helfstein, Global X's head of investment strategy. "Blanket tariffs would likely send the market lower, and that seems to be priced in," he added. "A more targeted approach would likely be bullish for risk assets and could trigger a relief rally. We believe that announcement will be more blanket, but investors should not go running for the hills." Bracing for the impact the tariffs are likely to have on global trade, as well as the likelihood of reprisals from major trading partners, investors continued to gravitate towards safe-haven assets in overnight trading. Gold prices set their 16th record high of the year and U.S. Treasury bond yields moved lower. Benchmark 10-year notes were last marked 2 basis points lower from Monday at 4.178% while 2-year notes eased to 3.877%. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, was marked 0.15% lower at 104.06 while spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,131.56 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $3,148.88 earlier in the into the start of the trading day on Wall Street, futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 suggest a modest 8 point opening bell gain while those linked to the Nasdaq are priced for a 51 point advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which slipped 1.3% over the first quarter, is called 24 points lower. Tesla () shares, which fell 36% in Q1, were marked 3.8% higher in the premarket ahead of the EV maker's first-quarter-delivery figures, which are expected prior to the opening bell. More Economic Analysis: Gold's price hit a speed bump; where does it go from here? 7 takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks Retail sales add new complication to Fed rate cut forecasts In overseas markets, Europe's Stoxx 600 rebounded from a two-month low, rising 1.2% in midday Frankfurt trading following a surprise easing in eurozone inflation in March, which added to bets on a near-term rate cut from the European Central Bank. Britain's FTSE 100, meanwhile, was marked 0.94% higher in London. Overnight in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 edged just a few points higher by the close of trading, after a 10.7% first-quarter slump left the benchmark at the lowest levels in nearly eight months. The regionwide MSCI ex-Japan index was last marked 0.87% higher into the close of trading, with modest gains in Hong Kong and a solid 1.62% advance for South Korea's Kospi. Sign in to access your portfolio
