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Economist
5 days ago
- Politics
- Economist
The looming military threat in the Arctic
Great-power competition in the far north puts renewed attention on Svalbard Roads in Longyearbyen, the most northerly settlement on the planet, are usually blocked only by a resurgent reindeer population. On August 14th the few thoroughfares in the small capital of Svalbard were set instead to be jammed by visiting dignitaries. Norway's prime minister, Jonas Store, along with the crown prince and other officials will gather for a ceremony marking 100 years of Norwegian sovereignty. Norway, a NATO member, is keen to emphasise the importance of the century-old Svalbard treaty that establishes its rule in this part of the far north. Geopolitical competition in the region is soaring. On August 15th Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the presidents of America and Russia, are due to meet in Alaska. They will discuss ending the war in Ukraine, at the first bilateral summit between the leaders of the two countries in years. Both presidents have asserted their wider interest in expanding their influence in the Arctic, too. Svalbard, as a European outpost in the Arctic, had drawn little geopolitical attention in recent decades. But intelligence chiefs, military figures and politicians are newly preoccupied by it. Svalbard's governor, Lars Fause, says 'enormous interest' has built up since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and after NATO expanded to include Sweden and Finland. Since Mr Trump suggested America would take control of Greenland from Denmark, earlier this year, attention has been supercharged. Europeans, especially, are keen to assert their Arctic presence more effectively. Norway's first national security strategy, published this spring, set out bluntly that 'national control in Svalbard is to be strengthened'. European disquiet is mostly because of Russia. Britain's foreign secretary, David Lammy, visited Svalbard in May, promoting close defence and intelligence ties with Norway and mutual efforts to track 'hostile activity' in the Arctic, an obvious reference to Russia. Two years ago Russia designated Norway as unfriendly, limiting diplomatic relations, because of Norway's support for Ukraine. Norway's intelligence chief, Nils Andreas Stensones, calls his country the 'eyes and ears' of NATO in the far north, and spoke recently in London of Russia's ever more aggressive foreign policy. He notes that Russia accuses NATO of 'wanting to militarise the Arctic'. Mr Putin said as much in March at an event in Murmansk, on the Arctic coast. Russia has also alleged that Norway makes military use of Svalbard, in contravention of the treaty. Norway denies it. Russia itself is re-opening or establishing new civilian and military bases in the wider Arctic, including in relatively close-by Franz Josef Land. Russia has the biggest military and civilian presence, including a large fleet of ice-breaker ships. It is also co-operating in the region with China, which has declared itself a 'near Arctic' power. Russia also has ambitions to develop the region as a shipping route for exports of oil and gas to Asia. Alaska (US) North-west passage CANADA Sea ice 1980 Northern Sea route Arctic Ocean Sea ice 2000 Sea ice 2024 China North pole Arctic circle Greenland (denmark) Franz Josef Land RUSSIA Svalbard ISL. FIN. Murmansk SWE. Kola Peninsula NOR. NATO Russia Svalbard's location midway between Greenland, mainland Norway and Russia is of growing geopolitical significance. The terms of the Svalbard treaty forbid any military structures there, but Norway is increasingly keen to assert its sovereignty. Russia and NATO have the most extensive networks of military and civilian bases in the Arctic. Russia is especially concerned to protect the home port for its nuclear-armed naval fleet at Murmansk, on the Kola peninsula. Russia is also keen to develop bases that could also support ships, including those transporting oil and gas, along the Northern Sea Route from Europe to Asia. In future, other sea routes in the Arctic may also become viable, opening up the region both for civilian trade and for increased naval activity. That depends, in turn, on how quickly the sea ice retreats in the Arctic, as a result of climate change. The past four decades have already seen a dramatic reduction. Norway's intelligence chief suggests Russia's Arctic efforts are also influenced by the effects of the Ukraine war. The expansion of NATO means that Russia is less free to carry out military and other activity in the Baltic Sea. To compensate, it appears to want more opportunities in the Arctic. The relative proximity of Svalbard to an important port for its nuclear-armed naval fleet on the Kola Peninsula of the Russian mainland is also a worry for Russia. A second Russian concern is that Svalbard gives Western powers an intelligence advantage. A large array of Starlink receivers and other antennae on mountains above Longyearbyen are used for downloading data, for civilian ends, from transpolar satellites. Although the Svalbard treaty forbids Norway from using such an installation for military purposes, Russia occasionally asserts that military activity nonetheless takes place. Norway denies it. Could heated words one day turn to hostile action? NATO powers suggest it may already be happening. There is evidence of Russian sabotage in the Arctic. In 2022 Russian trawlers were tracked as they criss-crossed an undersea communications cable that connected mainland Norway to Svalbard. The cable was cut, first near the mainland and then, later, near Svalbard itself. ARCTIC OCEAN Nordaustlandet Nordaustlandet Greenland Sea Spitsbergen Spitsbergen SVALBARD Barents Sea Pyramiden Pyramiden Longyearbyen Longyearbyen Damage to undersea cable Jan 2022 Barentsburg Barentsburg Edge Island Edge Island Norwegian Sea Some worry that could have been a harbinger of greater military threats. In November the head of German intelligence, Bruno Kahl, described a scenario in which Russia would test NATO members' commitment to common defence, Article 5, by launching a hybrid attack on Svalbard. Some incidents are suspicious but not proven as harassment. In July, for example, commercial airliners approaching Svalbard reported interference in their GPS signals. Svalbard's position is both advantageous and awkward for Norway. Crucially, Russia recognises the Svalbard treaty granting Norway ownership, even if the Soviet Union, in the 1940s, briefly tried to bully its neighbour to abandon it in favour of a bilateral arrangement between the two countries. Norway refused. The awkward bit is that the same treaty grants nationals of other countries the rights to settle and exploit territory on Svalbard. That includes Russia. A Russian mining company, Arktikugol, has for decades populated and run a town, Barentsburg, just 40km from Longyearbyen. A handful of other tiny Russian-run mining settlements have also existed. One challenge for Norway is to preserve Longyearbyen as a viable economic outpost, and crucially to maintain a year-round population there. All residents in Svalbard are temporary—because of limited medical facilities, the very young and elderly are discouraged from living there. For most of the past century the territory was mostly used for coal mining. But on June 30th the last Norwegian coal shaft was closed. One Norwegian in Svalbard, Svein Jonny Albrigsten, a miner who has lived on the island for 50 years, points out that Russia won't close its own coal mine at Barentsburg. He argues that as Russia and China show greater interest in exploiting Arctic natural resources, that will eventually spur Western countries to resume mining in Svalbard, too. More likely, however, Norway will double down on making Svalbard a centre for research and tourism. Longyearbyen already hosts Norwegian and international scientists in a research centre. Some miners may be re-employed in building work, as more and better residential structures go up, in part to deal with the effects of melting permafrost. In the long-run, retreating sea-ice in the Arctic may also bring a surge in shipping in the Arctic, including at Svalbard. Explore more → A corner of NATO where Lenin presides → The far north has become NATO's soft underbelly, writes John Bolton → Mikhail Komin on why the Arctic is Putin's next front → Confrontation in the high north is not inevitable, argues Kieran Mulvaney Conflict in Svalbard is far from likely, even if increasing competition for influence in the region is guaranteed. For the sleepy settlement of Longyearbyen, on the most extreme edge of the map, ever more visits from military, political and intelligence officials are certain. Interest from neighbouring Russia, too, is only going to grow. More from
Hindustan Times
5 days ago
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
The Russian-run town squatting on NATO territory
A BUST OF Lenin glowers over the square in Barentsburg. Public signs are in Cyrillic script; murals and banners celebrate Russian scientists and artists. Russia's tricolour flaps from buildings beside ones for Arktikugol, a Russian mining company. A Russian outfit provides the phone service, and shops sell Russian gherkins, tinned fish and fizzy drinks. Russian scientific institutes dot the town. Outside one, bathed in midnight sunshine, two geologists explain they are on their annual research visit from St Petersburg. You might think this settlement is part of Russia. It's not. Barentsburg is a geopolitical quirk: a Russian company town squatting on Svalbard, an Arctic archipelago that belongs to Norway. The NATO country has undisputed control, thanks to a treaty that came into force on August 14th 1925. As The Economist went to press, Jonas Store, Norway's prime minister, was set to preside over a 100th anniversary ceremony in Longyearbyen, Svalbard's capital. But the treaty also grants nationals and companies from other countries broad rights to exploit resources there, notably by mining coal. Russians have done so since the 1930s. Some western intelligence officials fear the arrangement gives Russia an opening to cause trouble. Norway's intelligence chief, Admiral Nils Andreas Stensonses, warned in June that lately the Arctic 'gets more attention' from Russia, in part because the Baltic Sea has become unfriendly waters since it invaded Ukraine. Three years ago Russian trawlers sabotaged a communications cable that runs hundreds of kilometres from Svalbard to the Norwegian mainland. The next year Vladimir Putin's administration designated Norway as unfriendly. In March Russia accused Norway of breaching the treaty with its military activity in Svalbard. For the people in Barentsburg, and the handful in the even smaller coal-mining town of Pyramiden nearby, that means growing isolation. One woman who says she arrived from Moscow a month ago to work with tourists confides that she is desperate to leave. The town's population had already slumped from a peak, last century, of of almost 2,000 to an estimated 340. Its uneconomic mine produces poor-quality sulphurous coal that is burnt locally: the power station's two chimneys spew sooty clouds over nearby glaciers. Ukrainians, who used to do the mining, have mostly gone. Liberal Russians also fled. Some decamped to prosperous Longyearbyen, 40km away by boat, snowmobile or helicopter. One Russian there explains it grew too 'complicated' to stay in Barentsburg after she spoke out against the Ukraine war. Another says he is trapped on the island without a passport, as he vows never to return to Russia. Even popping back to Barentsburg carries risks. Russians who travelled from Longyearbyen to vote in last year's presidential elections say they were searched on arrival and had to cast ballots under the eye of local officials. Svalbard's Norwegian governor, Lars Fause, supervises the Russian-run towns. He reports no tensions, but officials now discourage Norwegians and foreign tourists from visiting them. Some still do, to hike, ski and spot wildlife including polar bears, walruses, and whales. Ageing Soviet architecture is another draw. A garish orange-and-white block from 1974, the Stele, is promoted as 'the world's northernmost skyscraper'. It is four storeys tall. Relations between the towns were better in the cold war. The mayor of Longyearbyen, Terje Aunevik, notes that the residents have stopped exchanging visits on national days. The Russian parades are more militaristic nowadays, he says, and involve symbols of cultural difference such as a wooden Orthodox cross. One pro-Putin bishop has paid repeated visits to be filmed beside Orthodox religious items. One of the geologists from St Petersburg says he surveyed territory in Svalbard for decades, looking for rare-earth and other minerals alongside Polish, German and Norwegian scientists. Today he works only with fellow Russians. A Norwegian marine biologist in Longyearbyen says her previous research with Russian colleagues in monitoring the sea and ice in the nearby fjord has ended. Russia won't close its crumbling settlement. It would like to host a research centre on the island for scientists from the Global South, though the Norwegians are unlikely to allow that. The town still has propaganda and, perhaps, intelligence value for Mr Putin. The coal in Barentsburg may not be worth digging out, but it gives Russians an excuse to remain dug in.
Economist
6 days ago
- Politics
- Economist
A corner of NATO where Lenin presides Barentsburg, a Russian-run company town in Arctic Norway, could become a geopolitical headache
Aug 11th 2025 A bust of Lenin glowers over the square in Barentsburg. Public signs are in Cyrillic script; murals and banners celebrate Russian scientists and artists. Russia's tricolour flaps from buildings beside ones for Arktikugol, a Russian mining company. A Russian outfit provides the phone service, and shops sell Russian gherkins, tinned fish and fizzy drinks. Russian scientific institutes dot the town. Outside one, bathed in midnight sunshine, two geologists explain they are on their annual research visit from St Petersburg. You might think this settlement is part of Russia. It's not. Barentsburg is a geopolitical quirk: a Russian company town squatting on Svalbard, an Arctic archipelago that belongs to Norway. The NATO country has undisputed control, thanks to a treaty that came into force on August 14th 1925. As The Economist went to press, Jonas Store, Norway's prime minister, was set to preside over a 100th anniversary ceremony in Longyearbyen, Svalbard's capital. But the treaty also grants nationals and companies from other countries broad rights to exploit resources there, notably by mining coal. Russians have done so since the 1930s. Some western intelligence officials fear the arrangement gives Russia an opening to cause trouble. Norway's intelligence chief, Admiral Nils Andreas Stensonses, warned in June that lately the Arctic 'gets more attention' from Russia, in part because the Baltic Sea has become unfriendly waters since it invaded Ukraine. Three years ago Russian trawlers sabotaged a communications cable that runs hundreds of kilometres to the Norwegian mainland. The next year Vladimir Putin's administration designated Norway as unfriendly. In March Russia accused Norway of breaching the treaty with its military activity in Svalbard. For the people in Barentsburg, and the handful in the even smaller coal-mining town of Pyramiden nearby, that means growing isolation. One woman who says she arrived from Moscow a month ago to work with tourists confides that she is desperate to leave. The town's population had already slumped from a peak of almost 2,000 last century to an estimated 340. Its uneconomic mine produces poor-quality sulphurous coal that is burnt locally: the power station's two chimneys spew sooty clouds over nearby glaciers. Ukrainians, who used to do the mining, have mostly gone. Liberal Russians also fled. Some decamped to prosperous Longyearbyen, 40km away by boat, snowmobile or helicopter. One Russian there explains it grew too 'complicated' to stay in Barentsburg after she spoke out against the Ukraine war. Another says he is trapped on the island without a passport, as he vows never to return to Russia. Even popping back to Barentsburg carries risks. Russians who travelled from Longyearbyen to vote in last year's presidential elections say they were searched on arrival and had to cast ballots under the eye of local officials. Svalbard's Norwegian governor, Lars Fause, supervises the Russian-run towns. He reports no tensions, but officials now discourage Norwegians and foreign tourists from visiting them. Some still do, to hike, ski and spot wildlife including polar bears, walruses, and whales. Ageing Soviet architecture is another draw. A garish orange-and-white block from 1974, the Stele, is promoted as 'the world's northernmost skyscraper'. It is four storeys tall. Relations between the towns were better in the cold war. The mayor of Longyearbyen, Terje Aunevik, notes that the residents have stopped exchanging visits on national days. The Russian parades are more militaristic nowadays, he says, and involve symbols of cultural difference such as a wooden Orthodox cross. A few Soviet flags have been painted on structures in Barentsburg. Russians can enter Svalbard, visa free, if they travel by boat from Murmansk. One pro-Putin bishop has paid repeated visits to be filmed beside Orthodox religious items. Explore more → The far north has become NATO's soft underbelly, writes John Bolton → Mikhail Komin on why the Arctic is Putin's next front → Confrontation in the Arctic is not inevitable, argues Kieran Mulvaney One of the geologists from St Petersburg says he surveyed territory in Svalbard for decades, looking for rare-earth and other minerals alongside Polish, German and Norwegian scientists. Today he works only with fellow Russians. A Norwegian marine biologist in Longyearbyen says her previous research with Russian colleagues in monitoring the sea and ice in the nearby fjord has ended. Russia won't close its crumbling settlement. It has proposed a research centre on the island for scientists from the Global South, though the Norwegians are unlikely to allow that. The town still has propaganda and, perhaps, intelligence value for Mr Putin. The coal in Barentsburg may not be worth digging out, but it gives Russians an excuse to remain dug in. Images: Ingun Alette Mæhlum More from
