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Washington Post

What is Trump's endgame in the Middle East?

You're reading the Prompt 2025 newsletter. Sign up to get it in your inbox. It has been a whirlwind week for President Donald Trump in the Middle East: He has hinted at finalizing an Iran nuclear deal, lifted sanctions on Syria and taken his first meeting with that country's controversial president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Saudi Arabia. I'm joined by David Ignatius, a columnist at Post Opinions, and Josh Rogin, lead global security analyst with Washington Post Intelligence, to chew over everything that's happened. 💬 💬 💬 Damir Marusic Before we look at what has already happened, let me ask you both about something possibly imminent: a new Iran nuclear deal. In Qatar on Thursday, Trump said, 'I think we're getting close.' Do you think he gets it over the line? David Ignatius Trump certainly wants the deal 'over the line.' But to get it there, he needs answers to some very complex questions about the level of Iranian enrichment, if any, that's permitted, and procedures for verification, civilian nuclear power and a range of other technical issues on which the Trump team appears to have little background. This is a case where rushing to an agreement could have long-lasting dangerous results. It's great that Trump is trying to achieve a new breakthrough with Iran — although it's obviously ironic that it seems likely to recapitulate the basics of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement he scuttled in 2018 — but even to get a limited version of the JCPOA is going to take some time and detail work. Josh Rogin Trump's desire to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran seems genuine, but the scattershot way he has been going about it undermines his own chances for success. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, doesn't seem to understand the issues well. He has appointed a mid-level State Department official named Michael Anton, who has scant diplomatic experience, to work out the details. Trump loses interest when things don't turn out the way he wants quickly. The best thing we can say about it is that the negotiations have neutered the faction inside the Trump administration that wants to attack Iran. Trump doesn't seem to want to attack Iran. Good. But this incompetent approach has a very low chance of working out. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement Damir David, you wrote in your column this week that Trump is improvising his way through all of this. All foreign policy is to some extent event-dependent, and Trump is certainly appearing to be more agile by not being tied down to a complex policy process in Washington. But is it all just show? David Trump's mix of disrupter and dealmaker has produced some surprising — and positive — results this week. He opened relations with al-Sharra, beginning a process that might allow the reconstruction of that shattered country. Hurrah. He called off a costly and unproductive 30-day war with the Houthis in Yemen. Again, hurrah. He negotiated directly with Hamas for the release of an Israeli American hostage. Hard to cheer anything that enfranchises Hamas, but great that Edan Alexander is back with his family. These were all creative, break-the-mold actions, and what's most interesting is that each of them countered Israel's policies. Trump has distanced himself from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and showed who's 'boss,' in a way that Joe Biden never did (or probably could have done). For Trump, 'America First' applies to Israel, clearly. Bad news for Bibi. Josh I disagree a bit with you, David, on a couple of these points. Trump ended a costly and unproductive military campaign against the Houthis — that he started — when it became clear it wasn't working. Yes, he deserves credit for getting one American hostage home from Gaza, but he is meanwhile turning a blind eye to Israel starving 2 million Palestinians and doesn't seem to be pressuring Bibi to end the war with a comprehensive deal. So, his 'distance' from Bibi is really of limited utility if it doesn't involve progress to ending the Gaza war. Josh Even a broken clock is right twice each day. There are things Trump stumbles into that make perfect sense. Take the decision to engage with Syria's new government and lift sanctions. That's pretty unconventional, required forgetting about process, and it would be unthinkable for any other president to meet a former al-Nusra leader and call him 'attractive.' So occasionally, Trump's erratic style and penchant for ignoring convention result in something positive. But that's a heck of a risky way to run U.S. foreign policy. And when his instincts are wrong, the consequences can be catastrophic. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement Damir More broadly, I was struck by Trump's speech in Riyadh. He said that, at least under him, the United States has no 'permanent enemies.' How meaningful is that? David I found that statement powerful, too. Nations have interests and values, but they shouldn't have 'permanent enemies' or 'endless wars.' That has been part of Trump's appeal to his base from the beginning of the 2024 campaign — and it resonates around the world, I think. David The danger is that Trump — who wants to make a statecraft spectacle with anyone (remember the crazy diplomacy with Kim Jong Un) — will sell out America's interests and values in his rush to make showy 'big deals.' But for the moment, I want to encourage his revisionism — and open my mind to the possibility that with a serious, tough Iran nuclear agreement, Trump could begin to end what has been a 46-year undeclared war with Tehran. Josh Trump's endorsement of a broad realignment of U.S. foreign policy away from internationalism, multilateralism and democracy promotion, and toward values-agnostic realism, is very significant — not new for Trump but now shared by the administration factions that seem to be winning the ongoing internal factional battles. In the first term, these factions were unable to change much. This time around, they have already succeeded in destroying USAID, gutting U.S. humanitarian projects around the world, and burning down Ronald Reagan's 'arsenal of democracy' in the form of NGOs that worked abroad to support freedom. This is, of course, music to the ears of Persian Gulf monarchies and other despots and dictators worldwide. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement Damir Do you think what we've seen so far is making the Middle East more or less stable? Should Americans feel more or less safe and secure after Trump's week of wheeling and dealing? Josh The part of Trump's speech in Riyadh I found most interesting was when he said the U.S. won't tell other countries how to conduct their internal affairs anymore. The other way to say that is that the U.S. will only deal with governments and ignore the aspirations for freedom and dignity of people being repressed by said governments. That might seem pragmatic, but in the long term I argue it's counterproductive, because brutal dictatorships in places such as Iran and Saudi Arabia eventually fall when the people demand rights. See Syria. David Trump's implicit message this week, through all the pompous nonsense, was that he was rebalancing American power with improved relations across the region. We have better relations now with Lebanon, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, maybe even Iran. Sheesh! He had a good, glitzy week, and if his team can follow up (a big question mark), he will have achieved something solid.