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CTV News
18 hours ago
- Business
- CTV News
Bank of Canada to make interest rate decision as trade uncertainty swirls
The Bank of Canada is seen in Ottawa, on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada is expected to make an interest rate decision this morning. Economists and financial markets widely expect the central bank will keep its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent. A surprisingly strong June jobs report and signs of stubbornness in core inflation convinced many economists the bank would remain on hold. The Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged at its two most recent decisions as it waits for more clarity on how Canada's tariff dispute with the United States will affect inflation and the economy. The rate decision will come with a new monetary policy report where the central bank is expected to share its outlook for the economy as trade uncertainty persists. At its April decision, the bank didn't put out a traditional forecast and instead published a pair of scenarios for how the economy could respond to various levels of tariffs going forward. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 30, 2025.


CTV News
6 days ago
- Business
- CTV News
Federal government posts $6.5 billion deficit in April, May
The federal government posted a $6.5 billion deficit in the first two months of the fiscal year. The Peace Tower on Parliament Hill in Ottawa is seen past construction cranes, ahead of Parliament's Monday return on Sunday, May 25, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang The federal government posted a $6.5 billion deficit in the first two months of the fiscal year. The result for the April-to-May period compared with a $3.8 billion deficit for the same stretch last year. Revenues increased $26 million, virtually unchanged from the prior year, as increases in customs import duties and pollution pricing proceeds to be returned to Canadians were largely offset by a decrease in revenues from corporate income and goods and services taxes. The Finance Department says program expenses excluding net actuarial losses rose $2.9 billion, or four per cent. Public debt charges increased $400 million, or 3.8 per cent, due to an increase in the stock of marketable bonds and higher consumer price index adjustments on real return bonds. Net actuarial losses fell $600 million, or 46.8 per cent. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 25, 2025. The Canadian Press


Toronto Star
23-07-2025
- Politics
- Toronto Star
Report raises questions about First Nations ownership in major projects
People rally against Bill C-5 on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Tuesday, June 17, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang JDT flag wire: true flag sponsored: false article_type: : sWebsitePrimaryPublication : publications/toronto_star bHasMigratedAvatar : false :


Toronto Sun
19-07-2025
- Business
- Toronto Sun
Why the Bank of Canada could be done cutting its policy rate for now
Published Jul 19, 2025 • 4 minute read The Bank of Canada is seen in Ottawa, on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. Photo by Justin Tang / The Canadian Press OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada has largely kept to the sidelines as it tries to get a sense of how U.S. tariffs will impact the economy — and some economists think it might just stay there. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account After a quarter-point cut in March, the central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75 per cent in April and June. With last month's jobs figures showing a surprise gain and core inflation levels holding steady at around three per cent, economists now broadly expect the central bank will continue its holding pattern at its next decision on July 30. The central bank lowers its policy rate when it wants to encourage spending and boost the economy but keeps borrowing costs elevated when there are concerns inflation could pick up steam. Most economists expect the Bank of Canada will deliver at least one or two more quarter-point cuts in the months ahead. Lower rates would help shore up the economy in the trade war, the argument goes. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. RBC is among a small group making the case for no more interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada for the time being. Frances Donald, RBC's chief economist, said the central bank could opt to cut again amid 'pockets' of weakness in the economy _ a soft housing market and a sharp slowdown in tariff-struck sectors like manufacturing, to name a few. 'On the flip side,' she said in an interview, 'it's worth considering, would Bank of Canada rate cuts actually help what's hurting the Canadian economy?' The policy rate is a broad tool that affects every Canadian _ and every market — regardless of their need for support, Donald noted. That means that tariff-sensitive Windsor, Ont., where the unemployment rate now tops 11 per cent, would see the same stimulus from a rate cut as Victoria, B.C., where the jobless rate currently sits at just 3.9 per cent. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'Rate cuts would probably be inappropriate in an economy like that,' Donald said. Instead, RBC argues that markets like Windsor need the precision of fiscal policy support from the government. The Bank of Canada has already delivered 2.25 percentage points of interest rate cuts over the past year, and that support is only now starting to filter into the economy, Donald said. The central bank can now hand the baton to the federal government without having to provide much more support for the economy, she said, unless signs of a broader downturn start to materialize. Donald said RBC has a more optimistic view of the economy than some other forecasters, expecting growth to pick up through the rest of the year thanks to resilient consumer spending and an expected rebound in business confidence. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. But Oxford Economics, which expects Canada is already in a recession that will persist through the rest of the year, also expects no further interest rate cuts from the central bank. The firm said in an updated outlook this week that while it expects job losses to pick up steam in the months ahead, it also sees inflation rising to three per cent by mid-2026 thanks to tariffs and related supply-chain strain. The Bank of Canada will want to lean against any potential rise in prices and will keep its policy rate on hold even as the trade war stymies growth, Oxford Economics argued. Donald said that after inflation surged over the pandemic, consumers are likely feeling 'scarred' as new price pressures bubble up around them. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'Canadians have been through a very serious affordability crisis and this is a Bank of Canada that's likely going to lean on the side of wanting to prevent a second round,' she said. BMO, meanwhile, has three more interest rate cuts in its forecast currently, with the final coming in March of next year. But BMO chief economist Doug Porter acknowledged the arguments are growing for fewer, if any, cuts. 'If you look at what the financial markets are expecting, and they're often a very good judge, at this point they're really only looking for one more cut,' he said in an interview after Tuesday's inflation release. Porter said the federal government is expected to rapidly ramp up spending, particularly on defence and infrastructure, in the coming months, taking some of the pressure off the Bank of Canada to cut rates. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, believes it's not reasonable to expect the central bank is done cutting with the unemployment rate holding near seven per cent and the economy's output well below potential. 'I think it's quite unlikely that we're in a position where the economy doesn't need any cuts at all,' he said. At 2.75 per cent, the Bank of Canada's benchmark interest rate is at the middle of its so-called 'neutral range,' where monetary policy is neither boosting nor stifling economic growth. Brown said he expects the policy rate will likely drop to 2.25 per cent before the central bank's easing cycle is done, giving the economy some tailwinds through the trade uncertainty. Donald believes the Bank of Canada is well positioned at the middle of its neutral range — able to pivot lower with a couple of interest rate cuts as needed or keep rates elevated if inflation proves stubborn in the months ahead. She said she doesn't expect interest rate hikes will be in the cards anytime soon, but argues the Bank of Canada maintains overall flexibility by keeping its policy rate on hold until the data tells it which way to move. 'They could choose to stay at this level for the next one to two years waiting for the next shock, which could go in one direction or the next.' Toronto & GTA MMA Letters Tennis Celebrity


Toronto Sun
16-07-2025
- Business
- Toronto Sun
Statistics Canada says income gap hit record high in first quarter
Published Jul 16, 2025 • Last updated 5 minutes ago • 1 minute read Statistics Canada's offices at Tunny's Pasture in Ottawa are shown on Friday, March 8, 2019. Photo by Justin Tang / THE CANADIAN PRESS OTTAWA — The income gap between the country's highest and lowest income households reached a record high in the first quarter of 2025, Statistics Canada said Wednesday. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account The agency said the difference in the share of disposable income between households in the top 40 per cent of the income distribution and the bottom 40 per cent grew to 49 percentage points in the first three months of the year. Statistics Canada said the measure has increased each year following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the first quarter of 2025, it said the increase came as the highest income households gained from investments, while the lowest income households saw wages decline. Those in the bottom 20 per cent of the income distribution saw the weakest growth in disposable income in the first quarter at 3.2 per cent compared with a year ago as their average wages edged down 0.7 per cent. The lowest income households also saw the largest drop in net investment income as their investment earnings fell 35.3 per cent, while net transfers received, including increased government support measures, rose 31.2 per cent. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The average disposable income for those in the top 20 per cent of the income distribution increased at the fastest pace of any income group in the first quarter of 2025 as they benefited from a 7.7 per cent increase compared with a year earlier. The highest income households saw a 4.7 per cent increase in average wages and a 7.4 per cent gain in investment income. Statistics Canada said the wealth gap also increased as the top 20 per cent of the wealth distribution accounted for 64.7 per cent of Canada's total net worth in the first quarter, averaging $3.3 million per household. The bottom 40 per cent of the wealth distribution accounted for 3.3 per cent of net worth, averaging $85,700 per household. Crime Sunshine Girls Entertainment NFL Toronto & GTA