Latest news with #K33
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Rebounds Toward $110K, Presaging What Could Be a Volatile July
Bitcoin BTC is bouncing hard towards $110,000 on Wednesday, shrugging off Tuesday's brief risk-off wave that dragged the price below $106,000. Recently, the largest crypto traded at its strongest price since June 11, around $109,500, up 3.5% over the past 24 hours. The action came as Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, helping risk assets across the board. The Nasdaq at midday is ahead 0.8%. Under the deal, the U.S. will impose a 20% tariff on goods from Vietnam and a 40% levy on transshipped goods—products routed through Vietnam on their way to the U.S. U.S. exports, in turn, will face no tariffs when entering the Vietnamese market. Boosting crypto sentiment specifically could be the debut of the REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF (SSK), the first such crypto staking product available in the U.S. "Volume in $SSK now at $20M, which is really strong, top 1% for a new launch," wrote Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas a short while ago. Balchunas noted that SOLZ — a futures-based SOL ETF that opened for business in March — did just $1 million of volume on its first day of trade. July is shaping up to be a potentially volatile month for bitcoin, driven by Trump administration's policies, according to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33. Trump is expected to sign a controversial expansionary budget bill dubbed the "Big Beautiful Bill" by Friday. The bill, which could widen the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion, is seen by some as bullish for scarce assets like BTC, Lunde said. Another key date looming is the July 9 tariff deadline, which could see more aggressive trade posturing from Trump. Thirdly, July 22 is the final deadline for action on long-awaited crypto executive order, with potential updates on the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. "July is crowded with latent Trump volatility," Lunde said. Still, crypto markets are relatively calm without excessive froth, he noted. "There are few reasons to expect a massive broad deleveraging of the crypto market, as crypto-leverage remains contained," he said. "This favors maintaining spot exposure and staying patient as we progress into a period well known for its seasonal apathy."
Yahoo
19-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Solana CME Futures Fell Short of BTC and ETH Debuts, but There's a Catch
If you blinked you may have missed it: Solana's SOL futures started trading on Monday on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the go-to marketplace for U.S. institutions, and unlike previous, historic CME debuts for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), it received little fanfare. The product booked $12.3 million in notional daily volume on day one and closed with $7.8 million in open interest, well falling short of similar debuts of BTC and ETH products, according to K33 Research data. For context, BTC futures launched in December 2017 with $102.7 million first-day volume and $20.9 million in open interest, while ETH futures debuted in February 2021 with $31 million in volume and $20 million in open interest, per K33. Already under pressure by the implosion of speculative memecoin activity, bearish crypto action and even a botched commercial, SOL tumbled roughly 10% from its weekend high, underperforming bitcoin's (BTC) and ether's (ETH) 4.5% and 3.8% declines, respectively. While SOL's debut may seem lackluster in absolute terms, it is more in balance with BTC's and ETH's first-day figures when adjusted to market value, K33 analysts Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman noted. Solana's market capitalization stood at around $65 billion on Monday, a fraction of ETH's $200 billion and BTC's $318 billion at CME launch. Solana's CME launch also had unfavorable timing, as market conditions play a crucial role in futures activity, K33 added. Bitcoin's CME futures arrived at the peak of the 2017 bull market as speculative fervor was pushing to the extremes, and ETH's debut coincided with the early stages of the 2021 altcoin rally and Tesla's BTC purchase announcement, fueling institutional participation. In contrast, SOL futures started trading as crypto markets turned bearish, without any hype or major catalyst driving immediate demand for the product, according to the K33."It would appear that institutional demand for altcoins may be shallow, although we note that SOL's launch has come in a comparatively risk-off environment," K33 analysts said. Read more: Multicoin's Samani Explains Why SOL ETF Could Trounce ETH's Derivatives trader Joshua Lim, global co-head of markets at prime broker FalconX, said that the CME product opens up new ways for institutions to manage their exposure to Solana, regardless of the first-day demand. FalconX executed the first SOL futures block trade on CME on Monday with financial services firm StoneX. "There's enthusiasm for this new CME product launch," Lim said in a Telegram message. Liquid funds will be able to manage around their SOL holdings, including those that bought locked tokens in the FTX liquidation process, he said. Additionally, exchange-traded fund issuers with plans to introduce SOL products could start with CME futures-based ETFs. "People are missing the big picture on the new CME products," Lim said. "It's going to change the access that hedge funds have into altcoins." Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Futures Basis Turns Negative for First Time Since August 2023 After Nvidia Stock Drop and DeepSeek's Market Disruption
Bitcoin futures basis turned negative for the first time since August 2023, following a sharp decline in Nvidia's stock price, which affected the cryptocurrency market. K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde highlighted that the drop in Nvidia shares triggered a reaction in the crypto space, causing CME traders to hedge their risks quickly. This led to Bitcoin futures moving into negative territory for the first time in months. Futures basis, the difference between the price of a futures contract and the spot price of Bitcoin, is often seen as an indicator of market sentiment. A negative futures basis indicates a shift to a bearish outlook, with traders more willing to sell futures below the spot price due to heightened risk aversion. On top of this, open interest saw a significant decline of 17,225 Bitcoin in a single day. The market's bearish sentiment coincides with increasing concerns about global economic uncertainty, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, potential tariffs under the Trump administration, and the market turbulence caused by DeepSeek. DeepSeek, a China-based AI startup, unveiled a new model that reportedly competes with U.S. tech offerings at a fraction of the cost. This news sent shockwaves through the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which fell by 3.1%. With this added volatility, Bitcoin briefly dropped below $98,000 in overnight trading but found support above the $102,000 mark. The recent price swings are being driven more by broader risk-off sentiment rather than crypto-specific factors. Bitcoin's movement seems to be influenced by the uncertainty around the Fed's interest rate path and the possible ramifications of the DeepSeek announcement on the tech sector. This week's earnings reports from major tech companies like Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple are expected to add to the market's volatility. Investors are particularly sensitive to competition in the AI sector following DeepSeek's disruptive announcement. Analysts from QCP Capital suggested that the tech earnings could add further downside risk to assets like Bitcoin. Given these pressures, Bitcoin's futures market is in a precarious state, with traders showing caution and expecting further volatility. Despite these factors, U.S. equities displayed some resilience in pre-market trading, with S&P 500 futures rising by 0.12% and Nasdaq futures up by 0.24%. Some analysts remain optimistic about Nvidia, pointing to the potential long-term benefits from AI advancements, which could drive further demand for Nvidia's chips. However, the short-term outlook for Bitcoin and other risk assets remains uncertain, with investors on edge as they await the impact of upcoming earnings reports and broader economic developments.
