Latest news with #KIInsights
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Chaos to coordination: the evolution of POW swaps in the Russia-Ukraine war
The nature, size, and political significance of prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia have evolved significantly over the three and a half years of the full-scale war, accelerating sharply in recent weeks. While ceasefire and peace negotiations have gone through periods of halts and bursts, increasingly institutionalized prisoner exchanges are one of the few enduring areas of direct cooperation between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. On average, Ukraine and Russia exchanged 135 prisoners — mostly military, but with a sizable civilian component – each month from February 2022 through May 2025 (excluding the planned 1,000 for 1,000 exchange that began on May 23). But a deeper inspection of the data reveals a number of meaningful trends. Prisoner exchange numbers have surged — 277 individuals changed hands in April, and this weekend alone, 1,000 brave Ukrainians will come home. The picture is unrecognizable from last year, when prisoners were only returned on special occasions and holidays. Prisoner exchanges have been shaped by competing (and sometimes mutually exclusive) priorities including backchannel logistics, battlefield developments, and geopolitics. New data collected by KI Insights, an analytical research unit backed by the Kyiv Independent, gives a look behind the curtain into the institutionalization of prisoner exchanges. The full-scale invasion brought two meaningful institutional changes to prisoner exchanges. Firstly, Russia became an official party to the conflict, creating room to directly engage in negotiations. (Before the full-scale invasion, the Russian Federation denied its involvement in aggression in Ukraine, and negotiations were done through Russian-backed proxies in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.) Secondly, Ukraine created the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, an interagency working group created by the Cabinet of Ministers in March of 2022, which is responsible for prisoner exchanges. Since its creation, the Coordination Headquarters has gone through meaningful changes. Roles and responsibilities have changed hands, priorities have been defined, and each agency has a specific process it is responsible for. Kyrylo Budanov, leader of the Coordination Headquarters (since June of 2022, taking over from Iryna Vereshchuk) and Ukraine's chief of military intelligence, has successfully turned prisoner exchanges into an institution. Data collected by KI Insights demonstrates the impact of institutionalization. The average number of prisoners swapped per exchange has steadily increased, growing by approximately 50% each year. The number of swaps, however, has been inconsistent, with frequent breakdowns until late last year. In 2022, an average of 50 prisoners were returned to Ukraine per exchange. In 2025, the number has risen to more than 200, with this weekend's exchanges driving the number higher. The Istanbul negotiations failed to achieve a ceasefire, proving once again, Russia does not want peace. But for the prisoners who returned home, they were meaningful. The exchange also underscores an interesting dynamic of this war. There are lines of communication between Ukraine and Russia, and enough trust between officials to work together to return prisoners home. That is significant — the current frontline in Ukraine is more than 1,200 kilometers long, and any ceasefire will require significant amounts of communication and trust between Ukrainian and Russian officials. Russia has broken off prisoner exchanges at key points over the war, often when Russia thinks it can inflict maximum psychological damage. Following the siege of Mariupol and Ukraine's unsuccessful counteroffensive, Russia froze prisoner exchanges. Russian soldiers also tortured and killed Ukrainian prisoners of war at Olenivka Prison and on the battlefield. Refusing to return prisoners is a tactic Russia uses to exploit existing divisions in Ukrainian society and exploit the pain of families of the imprisoned as a political resource. For Russia, prisoners are resources — for psychological warfare and for bargaining. While pressure from the United States hasn't brought Russia to the table for a ceasefire, it likely has caused Russian President Vladimir Putin to make a show of reasonableness by agreeing to a prisoner exchange. The latest exchange is historic and could be a tipping point that helps U.S. President Donald Trump realize that U.S. pressure on Russia makes a difference. It could also solidify the shadowy infrastructure built between warring states and set the stage for an all-for-all prisoner exchange. Maybe it could, as Trump puts it, 'lead to something big???' Even if it doesn't, it is a battle won on the road to returning Ukrainians to Ukraine. Read also: BREAKING: Ukraine, Russia hold largest prisoner swap since start of Russia's war We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Ukraine's Frontline Pressure and Risks of Russia's Summer Offensive
As Ukraine braces for an intensified Russian offensive, KI Insights invites you to an exclusive off-the-record briefing on the latest battlefield dynamics, military challenges, and Kyiv's evolving strategic outlook. Drawing from sources spanning the trenches of Donbas to the Office of the President, we'll analyze the shifting threat landscape and its implications for Ukraine's defenses, Western support, and the war's trajectory. This special edition features a guest contribution from Francis Farrell, war correspondent for The Kyiv Independent, who regularly reports from frontline regions. Alongside KI Insights Director Jakub Parusinski, the session will offer firsthand reporting and military insights, providing a rare glimpse into the evolving tactical and operational trends shaping the war's next phase. Event details: Date: Tuesday, June 17. Time: 18:00 Kyiv time (17:00 in Brussels, 16:00 in London, 11:00 in Washington D.C.)Expected duration – 1 hour 30 minutes. Format: Online, in English. The event will include a presentation by KI Insights Director Jakub Parusinski and Kyiv Independent War Reporter, Francis Farrell, before moving to a Q&A session. This event is for subscribers only. Please note that KI Insights subscription is different from Kyiv Independent membership. While this event is exclusive to KI Insights subscribers, we are sharing the announcement publicly — because staying informed is essential in these uncertain times. Not a subscriber? Now is the time to join. Stay ahead of the curve with expert insights tailored for organizations operating in Ukraine. Sign up now at and get the first month for free. For security reasons, we require time for vetting before accepting new subscribers and sharing access details. We prioritize trust and confidentiality—thank you for your understanding. How to register: To secure your spot, please register by completing the short form linked below: Register here. Once registered, you will receive the details via email. Don't miss the briefing; add it to your calendar: For Google Calendar, click here. For Outlook Calendar, click here. Questions? If you need any assistance or have questions, please contact us at insights@ KI Insights Visit KI Insights to learn more and subscribe to the insider weekly newsletter visit ki insights About KI Insights: KI Insights, backed by The Kyiv Independent, provides in-depth analysis of Ukraine's political and business environment. Our briefings offer essential insights for analysts, decision-makers, and organizations overseeing investments or operations in Ukraine. Please note that a KI Insights subscription is separate from a Kyiv Independent membership and provides more detailed, expert-level analysis. For more information about our work and to subscribe, visit KI Insights. Read also: Opportunities to invest in Ukraine 2025We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
02-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fallout from the Trump-Zelensky meeting. What's next for Ukraine? – spot briefing by KI Insights
How will the latest high-level talks shape Ukraine's trajectory? What are the key takeaways, and what should diplomats, humanitarians, and businesses anticipate in the coming weeks? Join KI Insights for an exclusive spot briefing this Thursday, where we will break down the fallout and help you navigate the fast-evolving events. Event details: 📅 Date: Thursday, 6. March⏰ Time: 18:00 Kyiv time (17:00 Brussels, 16:00 London, 11:00 Washington, DC). Expected duration – 1 hour 15 minutes.📍 Format: Online briefing. The event will include a presentation by KI Insights director Jakub Parusinski and a candid Q&A session. Please note that the event is for subscribers only. How to register: To secure your spot, please register by completing the short form linked below: Register here. Once registered, you will receive the access link via this event is exclusive to KI Insights subscribers, we are making the announcement public — because staying informed has never been more a subscriber? Now is the time to join. Stay ahead of the curve with expert insights tailored for organizations operating in Ukraine. Please note that for security reasons, we require time for vetting before we can accept new subscribers. KI Insights prioritizes trust and confidentiality, and we ask for your understanding in this matter. Don't miss the briefing; add it to your calendar: For Google Calendar, click here. For the Outlook calendar, click here. Questions? If you need any assistance or have questions, please contact us at insights@ KI Insights Visit KI Insights to learn more and subscribe to the insider weekly newsletter visit ki insights About KI Insights: KI Insights, backed by The Kyiv Independent, provides an in-depth analysis of Ukraine's political and business environment. Our briefings offer essential insights for analysts, decision-makers, and organizations overseeing investments or operations in Ukraine. Please note that a KI Insights subscription is separate from a Kyiv Independent membership and provides more detailed, expert-level analysis. For more information about our work and to subscribe, visit . Read also: 'Once in a generation moment' — Zelensky, Ukraine's partners gather for key London summit after White House fallout We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
