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No big deal

Presented by Welcome to Canada Playbook. Time is short. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → The countdown is nearly over, unless it isn't. → Spotted at the KATY PERRY show in Montreal … → KIRSTEN HILLMAN gets a crash course in talking to conservative America. MORNING MONEY: CAPITAL RISK — POLITICO's flagship financial newsletter has a new Friday edition built for the economic era we're living in: one shaped by political volatility, disruption and a wave of policy decisions with sector-wide consequences. Each week, Morning Money: Capital Risk brings sharp reporting and analysis on how political risk is moving markets and how investors are adapting. Want to know how health care regulation, tariffs, or court rulings could ripple through the economy? Start here. Trade war THE DEADLINE THAT ISN'T — In Prime Minister MARK CARNEY's opinion, the Aug. 1 deadline for a trade deal is, well, fluid. The PM said so at a press conference hours after U.S. President DONALD TRUMP doubled down on the trade deadline in a Truth Social post: 'THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE IS THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE.' — No red in this line: 'It's possible that [talks] may not conclude by the first of August, but we'll see,' the PM said late in the afternoon on Parliament Hill. — Wednesday's headline: Carney called the presser to announce that Canada intends to recognize a Palestinian state ahead of September's United Nations General Assembly. POLITICO's MICKEY DJURIC has those details. ANDREA WOO reports in the Globe on the swift and divided reaction. → While you were sleeping: The president posted: 'Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!' POLITICO's YURII STASIUK has those details. — Now what?: Carney said Canada-U.S. Trade Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC, who arrived in D.C. on Tuesday night, didn't book a return ticket. — Marching orders: 'We're seeking the best deal for Canadians,' Carney said. 'We have not yet reached that deal. Negotiations will continue until we do.' LeBlanc is joining KIRSTEN HILLMAN, Canada's U.S. envoy and chief negotiator, and the PM's chief of staff, MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD. — Common ground: Carney wouldn't speculate on whether a deal with Trump might resemble what other allies have negotiated, including the EU. 'There are many areas for cooperation between Canada and the United States, including defense spending, security spending investments,' Carney said. — A tell: Trump is still levying 50 percent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum exports, and 25 percent tariffs on non-USMCA protected autos. Both are a major focus for Ottawa. Carney said he recognized those are 'strategic sectors' for the U.S. because they have been imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. He also hinted at a possible compromise to reach the finish line. 'There are gives and takes,' Carney said. 'We have to recognize that in the strategic sectors — again, as defined by the United States, what's strategic to them — that they have tariffs.' — Deals and duties aplenty: White House emails filled our inbox as POTUS unveiled new tariffs on copper, new tariffs on Brazilian and Indian imports, and an end to rules that allowed duty-free access to products valued at $800 or less. POLITICO Pro covered all of it — keep scrolling for our in-depth policy reporting. → Big deal: Trump also announced a preliminary trade agreement with South Korea. → Down to the wire: DANIEL DESROCHERS, ELI STOKOLS, PHELIM KINE and ARI HAWKINS report on how the White House is raising the pressure ahead of Friday's tariff deadline. → Buyer's remorse: French President EMMANUEL MACRON says the European Union failed to leverage its massive single market and sufficiently scare the United States into accepting a better deal than the one it reached Sunday. — Fingers crossed: Toronto Blue Jays fans desperate for a dominant relief pitcher and clutch bat to juice their favorite team's lineup are dreaming that today's MLB trade deadline — no moves after 6 p.m. EDT — is a fraction as active for Canada's only big-league club. Want more POLITICO? Download our mobile app to save stories, get notifications on U.S.-Canada relations, and more. In iOS or Android . PROZONE For POLITICO Pro subscribers, here's our latest trade news: — The challenge to Trump's tariffs will turn on these legal questions. — Trump sets 50 percent duty on semi-finished copper imports. — US officially imposes 50 percent tariff on Brazilian goods. — President says he's imposing 25 percent tariff on India. — Trump moves to end de-minimis 'loophole' for all countries. — Vague trade deal allows new US attacks on EU tech rules. And our latest Pro policy newsletter: Tariff panic triggers USMCA rush. THE ROOMS THAT MATTER — The PM does not have any public events scheduled. TALK OF THE TOWN FIREWORK — Yes, a certain former prime minister was reportedly spotted last night at KATY PERRY's Montreal concert. (No, Playbook hasn't independently verified the authenticity of this angle of the PM, nor this view from the other side, nor this one from above.) The apparent Wednesday night snaps served up a gossipy second act following TMZ's revelations about Trudeau and Perry's recent dog walk and dinner date. Move over LIAM NEESON and PAMELA ANDERSON. Step aside TOM CRUISE and ANA DE ARMAS. Welcome to the summer soirée subplot nobody saw coming. PAPER TRAIL TALKING TO AMERICANS — Canada's embassy in Washington paid a D.C. strategic communications firm to decode the Trump 2.0 conservative media landscape. Less than two months after DONALD TRUMP's inauguration, Signal Group inked a $6,000 contract to lead a 2-hour 'deep dive' workshop that coached the Canadians through 'right-wing messaging' and 'adapting messaging on key issues to Canada.' A copy of the contract filed with the U.S. Department of Justice also included 'executive level media training' where Signal offered analysis of Ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN's recent interviews and 'interview prep with conservative slant.' Playbook has learned that Signal trained embassy media staff, provincial government reps, among other staff. The firm also met with Hillman. — Appeal to emotion: Signal's list of deliverables referred in a bullet point to Maslow's hierarchy of needs, a theory of what motivates human behavior. The firm's website lays out the connection between Maslow's theory and modern communications. — Zoom out: Another post on Signal's website dissects the prowess of conservative voices. 'In our hyper-connected media landscape, the far-right messaging ecosystem has evolved into a force to be reckoned with,' reads the post. 'It leverages emotional resonance, cultural identity, and a distinct ability to mobilize audiences. For communicators, understanding this system is critical — not just for analyzing its influence but for crafting messages that cut through the noise and engage diverse audiences effectively.' — Big takeaway: 'Crafting targeted, hyper focused bipartisan messages that appeal to shared values and build common ground is equally essential,' reads the Signal post. — Further reading: POLITICO Influence recently took a deep dive into Signal's offerings. MORNING MUST-CLICKS — German Chancellor FRIEDRICH MERZ is under increasing pressure from coalition allies to drop staunch support for Israel, POLITICO's ELENA GIORDANO, TIM ROSS and NETTE NÖSTLINGER report from Brussels. — The Globe looks at how B.C. prepared for a potential tsunami. — MIKE CRAWLEY of CBC News reports on 'the court case that could kneecap most Trump tariffs.' — MATTEO CIMELLARO of the Citizen talked to Liberal MP COREY HORGAN about his 10-step guide to shrinking a government department. — From POLITICO's ORIANA PAWLYK and PAVAN ACHARYA: What we learned about the deadliest airline crash in decade. — And in The Star: Crown attorneys issue rare public response to PIERRE POILIEVRE attack on 'freedom convoy' prosecution. LOBBY WATCH Our daily check-in on federal lobbyist registrations and notable meetings around town: — The Rubicon Strategy team now lobbying for Algoma Steel includes DAVID HERLE, MICHELE CADARIO, ANDY SINGH, MATTHEW CLARK and ELIZABETH ROSCOE. — TACT's CHARLES PHILIPPE THIBAULT posted a Wednesday meeting with Prime Minister CARNEY and a pair of PMO staffers on behalf of Sorel Forge, a Quebec-based steel forging company. Thibault also logged check-ins with Industry Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Quebec Lieutenant STEVEN GUILBEAULT. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: Bloc MP LOUIS PLAMONDON, Conservative MP TOM KMIEC, Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE and SHEILA MARTIN, wife of former PM PAUL MARTIN. Noted: KAMALA HARRIS won't run for California governor. Elections Alberta approved a petition for a referendum to ensure Alberta remains in Canada. The PM is booked in for an Aug. 3 Liberal Party fundraiser at The Alexander in Vancouver's Gastown — a three-block walk from the intersection of Main and Hastings, a focal point of the troubled Downtown Eastside neighborhood. Congrats: SAM KHALIL and GREG FRAME were married over the weekend at Parlour on Wellington Street West. Both are longtime Liberal staffers: Khalil is former director of issues management to then-PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU; Frame is senior communications adviser and press secretary to Energy and Natural Resources Minister TIM HODGSON. — Politicos spotted on the guestlist: KATIE TELFORD, BRIAN CLOW, DIAMOND ISINGER, ZITA ASTRAVAS, JACKIE LEE and JESS FULLERTON. — Honeymoon plans: Prince Edward County. Movers and shakers: PETER WALL is now director of communications to Artificial Intelligence Minister EVAN SOLOMON. Foreign Affairs Minister ANITA ANAND announced that LOUIS-MARTIN AUMAIS will be the next ambassador to Jordan. ALLISON STEWART will take over as ambassador to Libya. JEFF DAVID has been tapped as consul general in Mumbai, India. And GHISLAIN ROBICHAUD will take on the same role in Sydney. Rubicon Strategy hired DAVID WOODRUFF as an associate in Washington … MATT SMITH, former chief of staff to B.C. Premier DAVID EBY, joined Pollara Strategic Insights as executive vice president, west. An order in council formalized the termination of RYAN CARROLL, a special assistant at the prime minister's residence hired last year in a child-care role. The reason for his departure noted in the OIC: 'a lack of work.' Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. TRIVIA Wednesday's answer: Then-PM JOHN DIEFENBAKER officially opened the Trans-Canada Highway in 1962. It was completed in 1971. Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, BOB GORDON, BOB RICHARDSON, JOHN PEPPER, MARJORY LEBRETON, DAVE PENNER, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, ANDREW SZENDE, DARRYL DAMUDE, JONATHAN MOSER, GORDON RANDALL, MALCOLM MCKAY, GANGA WIGNARAJAH and JENN KEAY. Props +1 to BOB GORDON. Today's question: Canada's first Department of External Affairs office opened on June 1, 1909, in downtown Ottawa. The pokey office was above what kind of shop? Send your answer to canadaplaybook@ Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and MICKEY DJURIC. Canada Playbook would not happen without: Canada Editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and POLITICO's Grace Maalouf.