Latest news with #KanikaPasricha
CNBC
07-08-2025
- Business
- CNBC
India may unveil fiscal stimulus to offest U.S. tariff impact, says economist
The Indian government may announce targeted fiscal measures to offset the economic effects of U.S. tariffs, according to Kanika Pasricha, Chief Economic Advisor at Union Bank of India. Pasricha says the greater impact will be on investor sentiment. She expects the governmet to announce measures to boost export-oriented sectors and reinforce the Make in India initiative. Pasricha also believes the Reserve Bank of India has room to cut rates and offer monetary support to help sustain growth.
Reuters
11-07-2025
- Business
- Reuters
India consumer inflation likely eased to over six-year low in June
BENGALURU, July 10 (Reuters) - An easing of food price rises and a high base likely helped Indian inflation slow to a more than six-year low in June, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Food inflation probably continued to ease from last year's elevated levels as supplies from a robust spring harvest reached markets, helping to offset the impact of an uneven monsoon that pushed up prices of a few key vegetables. Consumer inflation, as measured by the annual change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 2.50% in June from 2.82% in May, the July 7-10 survey of 50 economists showed. The predicted drop marks the longest stretch in nearly six years that inflation has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4%. Forecasts in the survey ranged from 1.80% to 3.50%. The expected moderation, marking the longest disinflationary streak in India in at least a decade, was largely due to a high base as vegetable prices had surged nearly 30% during the same period last year. June CPI data is due to be released on Monday at 1030 GMT. "We are expecting inflation to cool off further on a combination of base effects price momentum trailing seasonal trends," said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic adviser at Union Bank of India. "A good rabi (spring harvest), wheat and rice stocks overall are adding up to support lower food inflation," she added. Inflation will average 3.6% this fiscal year, slightly below the RBI's 3.7% forecast, a separate Reuters poll last month projected. That subdued outlook gave the central bank room to front-load a larger-than-expected 50 basis point rate cut in June to support weak domestic demand, as it shifted its policy stance to neutral, signalling limited room for further easing. However, several economists in the latest poll said if price pressures remain muted outside of supply-side shocks there may be scope for additional interest rate cuts. "There could be more than one rate cut," said Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank. "But the issue is there's always a supply-side shock that comes that clarity they will only get in the October and December meetings. The fact that they have stated a neutral stance also means they are not in a hurry to cut." Core inflation, which strips out volatile components like food and fuel and better reflects domestic demand, was expected to have risen to 4.30% year-on-year in June up from an estimated 4.20% in May. The Indian statistics agency does not officially publish core inflation data. Meanwhile, inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) was expected to have edged up to 0.52% in June from 0.39% in May, the poll showed.
Reuters
27-06-2025
- Business
- Reuters
India posts first current account surplus in four quarters, central bank says
MUMBAI, June 27 (Reuters) - India's current account posted a surplus for the first time in four quarters in the January-March period, helped by higher services exports, the central bank said on Friday. The current account surplus (INCURA=ECI), opens new tab stood at $13.5 billion, or 1.3% of GDP (INCAPA=ECI), opens new tab in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2024-2025 versus the polled estimate of $8.5 billion, or 0.9% of GDP. The surplus compares with a deficit of $11.3 billion or 1.1% of GDP in the preceding quarter, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement. The current account had registered a surplus of $4.6 billion or 0.5% of GDP in the same quarter a year ago. For the full fiscal year 2024-25, the current account deficit stood at $23.3 billion, or 0.6% of GDP, against $26 billion, or 0.7% of GDP in the previous year, on the back of higher net invisible receipts. "Apart from persistent strength in services exports, spike in remittances this year to a record high $123 billion was a key driver," said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic adviser at Union Bank of India. Pasricha expects full-year current account to log a deficit of 1.2% of GDP amid global trade tensions, with trade deals being "on a close watch." India's net services receipts increased to $53.3 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter from $42.7 billion a year earlier, contributing to the surplus, the RBI said. "Services exports have risen on a year-on-year basis in major categories such as business services and computer services," the central bank said. Personal transfer receipts, which are mainly remittances by Indians employed overseas, increased to $33.9 billion from $31.3 billion a year ago. Meanwhile, the merchandise trade deficit (INTRDQ=ECI), opens new tab widened to $59.5 billion, from $52 billion a year earlier, the RBI said. The country's balance of payments (INBOP=ECI), opens new tab was at a surplus of $8.8 billion in the March quarter, compared with a surplus of $30.8 billion a year earlier. The balance of payments recorded a deficit of $5 billion for 2024-25, compared with a surplus of $63.7 billion in the previous year. "With the current account deficit at modest levels, the swing factor for balance of payments will be the strength of financial flows, particularly portfolio and net FDI inflows, after a weak patch last year," said Radhika Rao, executive director and senior economist at DBS Bank.
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Business Standard
10-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
India May inflation likely cooled to 3% as food price pressure eases: Poll
India's consumer inflation rate likely eased to a more than six-year low of 3 per cent in May thanks to a favourable base and a further moderation in food prices, a Reuters poll forecast, supporting last week's larger-than-expected interest rate cut. On Friday the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stunned financial markets by slashing its key policy rate by 50 basis points, double what was predicted, to boost economic growth as inflation has remained subdued. The central bank, which targets inflation in the middle of its 2-6 per cent range in the medium term, also shifted its policy stance to 'neutral' from 'accommodative'. A snap Reuters poll after the decision found the RBI was likely done with cutting rates, wrapping up one of its shortest and shallowest easing cycles in more than a decade. The June 5-9 Reuters poll of 50 economists, published on Monday, forecast inflation measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI) fell even further to 3.00 per cent in May from 3.16 per cent in April. That would mark the fourth consecutive month below the RBI's 4.0 per cent medium-term target, the longest such streak in nearly six years. It would also be the lowest inflation rate since April 2019, welcome news for many Indian households where food takes up a significant share of monthly expenses. Forecasts for the data due on Thursday at 1030 GMT ranged from 2.7 per cent to 3.7 per cent. "We are expecting a cooling of inflation to 3 per cent on a combination of a favourable base effect and... sequential moderation in prices of cereals and pulses even as most other segments started to strengthen," said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic advisor at Union Bank of India. "Prices of most food segments though continue to slide but the pace of correction is losing ground," she added. While concerns over widespread heatwaves raised fears of an inflation spike last month, a healthy harvest and the early arrival of monsoon rains helped ease those risks. "Even though there were heatwaves, I think the early monsoons across the country are likely to have cooled things off... most of the categories of food inflation seem to be contained," said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Yes Bank. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy items and is seen as a better indicator of domestic demand, was expected to have edged up to 4.20 per cent year-on-year in May, from an estimated 4.00 per cent-4.10 per cent in April, the poll showed. India's official statistics agency does not publish core inflation data. Wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation likely dipped to a 14-month low of 0.80 per cent in May from 0.85 per cent in April, the survey found. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
Yahoo
09-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
India May inflation likely cooled to 3% as food price pressure eases
By Pranoy Krishna BENGALURU (Reuters) -India's consumer inflation rate likely eased to a more than six-year low of 3% in May thanks to a favourable base and a further moderation in food prices, a Reuters poll forecast, supporting last week's larger-than-expected interest rate cut. On Friday the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stunned financial markets by slashing its key policy rate by 50 basis points, double what was predicted, to boost economic growth as inflation has remained subdued. The central bank, which targets inflation in the middle of its 2-6% range in the medium term, also shifted its policy stance to 'neutral' from 'accommodative'. A snap Reuters poll after the decision found the RBI was likely done with cutting rates, wrapping up one of its shortest and shallowest easing cycles in more than a decade. The June 5–9 Reuters poll of 50 economists, published on Monday, forecast inflation measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI) fell even further to 3.00% in May from 3.16% in April. That would mark the fourth consecutive month below the RBI's 4.0% medium-term target, the longest such streak in nearly six years. It would also be the lowest inflation rate since April 2019, welcome news for many Indian households where food takes up a significant share of monthly expenses. Forecasts for the data due on Thursday at 1030 GMT ranged from 2.7% to 3.7%. "We are expecting a cooling of inflation to 3% on a combination of a favourable base effect and... sequential moderation in prices of cereals and pulses even as most other segments started to strengthen," said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic advisor at Union Bank of India. "Prices of most food segments though continue to slide but the pace of correction is losing ground," she added. While concerns over widespread heatwaves raised fears of an inflation spike last month, a healthy harvest and the early arrival of monsoon rains helped ease those risks. "Even though there were heatwaves, I think the early monsoons across the country are likely to have cooled things off... most of the categories of food inflation seem to be contained," said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Yes Bank. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy items and is seen as a better indicator of domestic demand, was expected to have edged up to 4.20% year-on-year in May, from an estimated 4.00%-4.10% in April, the poll showed. India's official statistics agency does not publish core inflation data. Wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation likely dipped to a 14-month low of 0.80% in May from 0.85% in April, the survey found. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
