Latest news with #KarYongAng
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Outlook: Why the Price Surged and What's Next
Bitcoin (BTC) has been rising almost uninterruptedly over the past three months, setting new all-time highs (ATH) essentially every week since mid-May. According to Coinbase, BTCUSD surpassed the crucial $112,000 mark on 10 July and went on to touch the $123,200 level on 14 July. Since then, the market seems to have entered a period of consolidation, with prices fluctuating in the $116,000–120,000 range. The critical question now facing investors is whether this represents a prelude to a significant downward correction or if the current consolidation will merely serve as a springboard for the rally to continue its upward trajectory. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst, explains the reasons for the rally and examines potential scenarios. Following the spring pullback, when the price of the world's major crypto currency dipped below $75,000 in early April, BTC rallied 65% and was trading slightly above the $123,000 level by mid-July. The major drivers for such an impressive rally include renewed investor optimism, rising institutional flows, a favourable regulatory environment, and skewed BTC supply. Kar Yong Ang comments: 'In many ways, the stars have aligned for Bitcoin holders, with significant improvements in risk sentiment and supportive regulatory news truly propelling its ascent'. Indeed, the rally kicked off on 22 April, sparked by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's suggestion of a potential de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions. The following day, President Donald Trump further boosted sentiment by hinting at lower tariffs for China and retracting threats to dismiss Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. This news improved risk appetite and sent BTCUSD up by 6.82% on 22 April alone. Optimism for global trade was further fueled on 8 May, when Donald Trump unveiled a new trade deal with the United Kingdom (UK)—the first since the 'reciprocal' tariff pause—propelling BTCUSD higher by an additional 6.38%. Apart from positive headlines, deeper structural transformations—notably, a mismatch between supply and demand—have also played a key role. It is no secret that Bitcoin's total final emission is limited to 21 million coins. Additionally, bitcoin undergoes a 'halving' event approximately every four years, which cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half, thus limiting the daily average supply of new bitcoins. Following the most recent halving, a new Bitcoin block is now mined roughly every 10 minutes, and the reward per block is 3.125 BTC.[1] Therefore, the daily issuance of new Bitcoin currently stands at just around 450 coins per day. This is how it is calculated: (6 blocks/hour×24 hours/day)×3.125 BTC/block = 144 blocks/day×3.125 BTC/block = 450 BTC/day. This daily issuance has been vastly outpaced by demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have been absorbing up to 10,000 BTC per day. A mismatch between natural supply and ETF-driven demand has created a severe shortage in available coins, fueling aggressive upward price momentum. The imbalance has been exacerbated by continued investor preference for bitcoin vs other, less liquid, and less developed coins. Institutional flows into crypto investment vehicles have further amplified the rally, signalling growing mainstream adoption. BlackRock reported a 366% quarter-over-quarter surge in crypto ETF inflows in Q2 2025, with allocations rising to $14 billion, now comprising 16.5% of its total ETF flows.[2] Similarly, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their second consecutive $2 billion inflow week in mid-July.[3] This growing supply-demand imbalance has coincided with significant regulatory milestones in the U.S. Specifically, the Republicans have pushed forward three pieces of legislation (the Genius Act, the Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act) aimed at creating a regulatory framework for the growing cryptocurrency market. The Genius Act, which focuses on stablecoins, creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for their issuance and oversight, has already been signed into law by President Trump, while the Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act are yet to be passed by the Senate. Overall, the increasing crypto interest and adoption drove the crypto market capitalization to hit $4 trillion on 18 July, reflecting its strength and maturity with bitcoin in particular becoming a central part of the global investment landscape. A Burning Question: Will the BTC Rally Continue? With so many factors working in Bitcoin's favour, it seems reasonable to infer that its price will likely continue to go higher in the long term. And while this may be true, it is still important to highlight major risks that lie ahead. Kar Yong Ang, comments: BTC/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView Indeed, the failure to hold the 121,500 level on 14 July and the subsequent correction on 15 July occurred on very strong volume, meaning that traders are uncertain about the next big move and doubt that a rally can be sustained in the short term. Furthermore, fundamentals have turned sour lately. After a 0.1% increase in May, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, a roughly 3.5% annual rate, which is uncomfortably above the Fed's target rate. This renewed inflationary pressure diminishes the likelihood of a September interest rate cut by the Fed and may exert bearish pressure on equity and crypto valuations. A similar scenario is evident in other major economies. For example, UK CPI rose to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May and also undermined the widespread anticipation of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). In other words, the global monetary policy may not be as accommodative as investors had hoped for previously, making them reluctant to purchase in risky assets Three BTC Price Action Scenarios Kar Yong Ang has come up with three potential scenarios for BTCUSD. The most optimistic scenario envisions a continued upward climb beyond current highs, driven by persistent institutional inflows and favourable regulatory developments. However, given signs of short-term overextension and waning upside momentum on the daily chart, this outcome appears less likely in the short term. There is the risk of a deeper, prolonged correction, particularly if macroeconomic headwinds or regulatory setbacks dampen sentiment. While not impossible, this scenario is seen as less probable for now, given strong underlying fundamentals such as limited BTC supply and sustained demand from ETFs. A more probable, base-case scenario is a modest correction toward support levels, followed by a resumption of the broader uptrend. Such a pullback would allow the market to consolidate and establish a stronger foundation, ultimately preserving the bullish structure while shaking out weak hands. Kar Yong Ang comments: 'Bitcoin looks a little stretched right now, and you can see it struggling to punch clean through resistance at the highs. A pullback into the $112,000–105,000 area would actually be healthy—that's where smart money will likely step back in. The fundamentals are still stacked in Bitcoin's favour: supply is tight, ETFs money keeps flowing, and regulatory progress is finally breaking through'. ↑ ↑ ↑ This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Strength for the Dollar After Higher Inflation Use Money Flows to Spot Outliers Like NVIDIA Early Germany: Successful Implementation of Infrastructure Investment Key to Growth, Fiscal Sustainability Coinbase on Fire from Sustained Big Money Buys Jump On Potential Highflyers Like Sportradar Early Has the U.S. Dollar Found Support? Sign in to access your portfolio
The Sun
5 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
Bitcoin's surge & beyond: An Octa broker forecast
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 24 July 2025 - Bitcoin (BTC) has been rising almost uninterruptedly over the past three months, setting new all-time highs (ATH) essentially every week since mid-May. According to Coinbase, BTCUSD surpassed the crucial $112,000 mark on 10 July and went on to touch the $123,200 level on 14 July. Since then, the market seems to have entered a period of consolidation, with prices fluctuating in the $116,000–120,000 range. The critical question now facing investors is whether this represents a prelude to a significant downward correction or if the current consolidation will merely serve as a springboard for the rally to continue its upward trajectory. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, explains the reasons for the rally and examines potential scenarios. Following the spring pullback, when the price of the world's major crypto currency dipped below $75,000 in early April, BTC rallied 65% and was trading slightly above the $123,000 level by mid-July. The major drivers for such an impressive rally include renewed investor optimism, rising institutional flows, a favourable regulatory environment, and skewed BTC supply. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker comments: 'In many ways, the stars have aligned for Bitcoin holders, with significant improvements in risk sentiment and supportive regulatory news truly propelling its ascent'. Indeed, the rally kicked off on 22 April, sparked by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's suggestion of a potential de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions. The following day, President Donald Trump further boosted sentiment by hinting at lower tariffs for China and retracting threats to dismiss Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. This news improved risk appetite and sent BTCUSD up by 6.82% on 22 April alone. Optimism for global trade was further fueled on 8 May, when Donald Trump unveiled a new trade deal with the United Kingdom (UK)—the first since the 'reciprocal' tariff pause—propelling BTCUSD higher by an additional 6.38%. Apart from positive headlines, deeper structural transformations—notably, a mismatch between supply and demand—have also played a key role. It is no secret that Bitcoin's total final emission is limited to 21 million coins. Additionally, bitcoin undergoes a 'halving' event approximately every four years, which cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half, thus limiting the daily average supply of new bitcoins. Following the most recent halving, a new Bitcoin block is now mined roughly every 10 minutes, and the reward per block is 3.125 BTC. Therefore, the daily issuance of new Bitcoin currently stands at just around 450 coins per day. This is how it is calculated: (6 blocks/hour×24 hours/day)×3.125 BTC/block = 144 blocks/day×3.125 BTC/block = 450 BTC/day. This daily issuance has been vastly outpaced by demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have been absorbing up to 10,000 BTC per day. A mismatch between natural supply and ETF-driven demand has created a severe shortage in available coins, fueling aggressive upward price momentum. The imbalance has been exacerbated by continued investor preference for bitcoin vs other, less liquid, and less developed coins. Institutional flows into crypto investment vehicles have further amplified the rally, signalling growing mainstream adoption. BlackRock reported a 366% quarter-over-quarter surge in crypto ETF inflows in Q2 2025, with allocations rising to $14 billion, now comprising 16.5% of its total ETF flows. Similarly, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their second consecutive $2 billion inflow week in mid-July. This growing supply-demand imbalance has coincided with significant regulatory milestones in the U.S. Specifically, the Republicans have pushed forward three pieces of legislation (the Genius Act, the Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act) aimed at creating a regulatory framework for the growing cryptocurrency market. The Genius Act, which focuses on stablecoins, creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for their issuance and oversight, has already been signed into law by President Trump, while the Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act are yet to be passed by the Senate. Overall, the increasing crypto interest and adoption drove the crypto market capitalization to hit $4 trillion on 18 July, reflecting its strength and maturity with bitcoin in particular becoming a central part of the global investment landscape. BTC Rally Outlook: A Burning Topic With so many factors working in Bitcoin's favour, it seems reasonable to infer that its price will likely continue to go higher in the long term. And while this may be true, it is still important to highlight major risks that lie ahead. Kar Yong Ang, comments: 'Technically, Bitcoin looks like it is preparing for a major downward correction. BTCUSD failed to hold above the 0.618 extension level of the bullish trend, which commenced in early April. The price has formed a long wick on the daily chart, signalling an exhaustion of the bullish trend. A decline towards the 112,000 level is now highly likely. A break below 112,000 would open the way towards the 105,000 level.' BTCUSD DAILY CHART Indeed, the failure to hold the 121,500 level on 14 July and the subsequent correction on 15 July occurred on very strong volume, meaning that traders are uncertain about the next big move and doubt that a rally can be sustained in the short term. Furthermore, fundamentals have turned sour lately. After a 0.1% increase in May, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, a roughly 3.5% annual rate, which is uncomfortably above the Fed's target rate. This renewed inflationary pressure diminishes the likelihood of a September interest rate cut by the Fed and may exert bearish pressure on equity and crypto valuations. A similar scenario is evident in other major economies. For example, UK CPI rose to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May and also undermined the widespread anticipation of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). In other words, the global monetary policy may not be as accommodative as investors had hoped for previously, making them reluctant to purchase in risky assets Three BTC price action scenarios Kar Yong Ang of Octa Broker has come up with three potential scenarios for BTCUSD. The most optimistic scenario envisions a continued upward climb beyond current highs, driven by persistent institutional inflows and favourable regulatory developments. However, given signs of short-term overextension and waning upside momentum on the daily chart, this outcome appears less likely in the short term. There is the risk of a deeper, prolonged correction, particularly if macroeconomic headwinds or regulatory setbacks dampen sentiment. While not impossible, this scenario is seen as less probable for now, given strong underlying fundamentals such as limited BTC supply and sustained demand from ETFs. A more probable, base-case scenario is a modest correction toward support levels, followed by a resumption of the broader uptrend. Such a pullback would allow the market to consolidate and establish a stronger foundation, ultimately preserving the bullish structure while shaking out weak hands. Kar Yong Ang comments: ' Bitcoin looks a little stretched right now, and you can see it struggling to punch clean through resistance at the highs. A pullback into the $112,000–105,000 area would actually be healthy—that's where smart money will likely step back in. The fundamentals are still stacked in Bitcoin's favour: supply is tight, ETFs money keeps flowing, and regulatory progress is finally breaking through '. ___ Disclaimer: This press release does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences.
Zawya
5 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Bitcoin's surge & beyond: An Octa broker forecast
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 24 July 2025 - Bitcoin (BTC) has been rising almost uninterruptedly over the past three months, setting new all-time highs (ATH) essentially every week since mid-May. According to Coinbase, BTCUSD surpassed the crucial $112,000 mark on 10 July and went on to touch the $123,200 level on 14 July. Since then, the market seems to have entered a period of consolidation, with prices fluctuating in the $116,000–120,000 range. The critical question now facing investors is whether this represents a prelude to a significant downward correction or if the current consolidation will merely serve as a springboard for the rally to continue its upward trajectory. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, explains the reasons for the rally and examines potential scenarios. Following the spring pullback, when the price of the world's major crypto currency dipped below $75,000 in early April, BTC rallied 65% and was trading slightly above the $123,000 level by mid-July. The major drivers for such an impressive rally include renewed investor optimism, rising institutional flows, a favourable regulatory environment, and skewed BTC supply. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker comments: 'In many ways, the stars have aligned for Bitcoin holders, with significant improvements in risk sentiment and supportive regulatory news truly propelling its ascent'. Indeed, the rally kicked off on 22 April, sparked by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's suggestion of a potential de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions. The following day, President Donald Trump further boosted sentiment by hinting at lower tariffs for China and retracting threats to dismiss Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. This news improved risk appetite and sent BTCUSD up by 6.82% on 22 April alone. Optimism for global trade was further fueled on 8 May, when Donald Trump unveiled a new trade deal with the United Kingdom (UK)—the first since the 'reciprocal' tariff pause—propelling BTCUSD higher by an additional 6.38%. Apart from positive headlines, deeper structural transformations—notably, a mismatch between supply and demand—have also played a key role. It is no secret that Bitcoin's total final emission is limited to 21 million coins. Additionally, bitcoin undergoes a "halving" event approximately every four years, which cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half, thus limiting the daily average supply of new bitcoins. Following the most recent halving, a new Bitcoin block is now mined roughly every 10 minutes, and the reward per block is 3.125 BTC. Therefore, the daily issuance of new Bitcoin currently stands at just around 450 coins per day. This is how it is calculated: (6 blocks/hour×24 hours/day)×3.125 BTC/block = 144 blocks/day×3.125 BTC/block = 450 BTC/day. This daily issuance has been vastly outpaced by demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have been absorbing up to 10,000 BTC per day. A mismatch between natural supply and ETF-driven demand has created a severe shortage in available coins, fueling aggressive upward price momentum. The imbalance has been exacerbated by continued investor preference for bitcoin vs other, less liquid, and less developed coins. Institutional flows into crypto investment vehicles have further amplified the rally, signalling growing mainstream adoption. BlackRock reported a 366% quarter-over-quarter surge in crypto ETF inflows in Q2 2025, with allocations rising to $14 billion, now comprising 16.5% of its total ETF flows. Similarly, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their second consecutive $2 billion inflow week in mid-July. This growing supply-demand imbalance has coincided with significant regulatory milestones in the U.S. Specifically, the Republicans have pushed forward three pieces of legislation (the Genius Act, the Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act) aimed at creating a regulatory framework for the growing cryptocurrency market. The Genius Act, which focuses on stablecoins, creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for their issuance and oversight, has already been signed into law by President Trump, while the Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act are yet to be passed by the Senate. Overall, the increasing crypto interest and adoption drove the crypto market capitalization to hit $4 trillion on 18 July, reflecting its strength and maturity with bitcoin in particular becoming a central part of the global investment landscape. BTC Rally Outlook: A Burning Topic With so many factors working in Bitcoin's favour, it seems reasonable to infer that its price will likely continue to go higher in the long term. And while this may be true, it is still important to highlight major risks that lie ahead. Kar Yong Ang, comments: 'Technically, Bitcoin looks like it is preparing for a major downward correction. BTCUSD failed to hold above the 0.618 extension level of the bullish trend, which commenced in early April. The price has formed a long wick on the daily chart, signalling an exhaustion of the bullish trend. A decline towards the 112,000 level is now highly likely. A break below 112,000 would open the way towards the 105,000 level.' BTCUSD DAILY CHART Indeed, the failure to hold the 121,500 level on 14 July and the subsequent correction on 15 July occurred on very strong volume, meaning that traders are uncertain about the next big move and doubt that a rally can be sustained in the short term. Furthermore, fundamentals have turned sour lately. After a 0.1% increase in May, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, a roughly 3.5% annual rate, which is uncomfortably above the Fed's target rate. This renewed inflationary pressure diminishes the likelihood of a September interest rate cut by the Fed and may exert bearish pressure on equity and crypto valuations. A similar scenario is evident in other major economies. For example, UK CPI rose to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May and also undermined the widespread anticipation of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). In other words, the global monetary policy may not be as accommodative as investors had hoped for previously, making them reluctant to purchase in risky assets Three BTC price action scenarios Kar Yong Ang of Octa Broker has come up with three potential scenarios for BTCUSD. The most optimistic scenario envisions a continued upward climb beyond current highs, driven by persistent institutional inflows and favourable regulatory developments. However, given signs of short-term overextension and waning upside momentum on the daily chart, this outcome appears less likely in the short term. There is the risk of a deeper, prolonged correction, particularly if macroeconomic headwinds or regulatory setbacks dampen sentiment. While not impossible, this scenario is seen as less probable for now, given strong underlying fundamentals such as limited BTC supply and sustained demand from ETFs. A more probable, base-case scenario is a modest correction toward support levels, followed by a resumption of the broader uptrend. Such a pullback would allow the market to consolidate and establish a stronger foundation, ultimately preserving the bullish structure while shaking out weak hands. Kar Yong Ang comments: 'Bitcoin looks a little stretched right now, and you can see it struggling to punch clean through resistance at the highs. A pullback into the $112,000–105,000 area would actually be healthy—that's where smart money will likely step back in. The fundamentals are still stacked in Bitcoin's favour: supply is tight, ETFs money keeps flowing, and regulatory progress is finally breaking through'. ___ Disclaimer: This press release does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences. Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively. Octa
Arabian Post
5 days ago
- Business
- Arabian Post
Bitcoin's surge & beyond: An Octa broker forecast
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach Newswire – 24 July 2025 – Bitcoin (BTC) has been rising almost uninterruptedly over the past three months, setting new all-time highs (ATH) essentially every week since mid-May. According to Coinbase, BTCUSD surpassed the crucial $112,000 mark on 10 July and went on to touch the $123,200 level on 14 July. Since then, the market seems to have entered a period of consolidation, with prices fluctuating in the $116,000–120,000 range. The critical question now facing investors is whether this represents a prelude to a significant downward correction or if the current consolidation will merely serve as a springboard for the rally to continue its upward trajectory. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa Broker, explains the reasons for the rally and examines potential scenarios. Following the spring pullback, when the price of the world's major crypto currency dipped below $75,000 in early April, BTC rallied 65% and was trading slightly above the $123,000 level by mid-July. The major drivers for such an impressive rally include renewed investor optimism, rising institutional flows, a favourable regulatory environment, and skewed BTC supply. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market analyst at Octa broker comments: 'In many ways, the stars have aligned for Bitcoin holders, with significant improvements in risk sentiment and supportive regulatory news truly propelling its ascent'. Indeed, the rally kicked off on 22 April, sparked by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's suggestion of a potential de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions. The following day, President Donald Trump further boosted sentiment by hinting at lower tariffs for China and retracting threats to dismiss Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. This news improved risk appetite and sent BTCUSD up by 6.82% on 22 April alone. Optimism for global trade was further fueled on 8 May, when Donald Trump unveiled a new trade deal with the United Kingdom (UK)—the first since the 'reciprocal' tariff pause—propelling BTCUSD higher by an additional 6.38%. ADVERTISEMENT Apart from positive headlines, deeper structural transformations—notably, a mismatch between supply and demand—have also played a key role. It is no secret that Bitcoin's total final emission is limited to 21 million coins. Additionally, bitcoin undergoes a 'halving' event approximately every four years, which cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half, thus limiting the daily average supply of new bitcoins. Following the most recent halving, a new Bitcoin block is now mined roughly every 10 minutes, and the reward per block is 3.125 BTC. Therefore, the daily issuance of new Bitcoin currently stands at just around 450 coins per day. This is how it is calculated: (6 blocks/hour×24 hours/day)×3.125 BTC/block = 144 blocks/day×3.125 BTC/block = 450 BTC/day. This daily issuance has been vastly outpaced by demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have been absorbing up to 10,000 BTC per day. A mismatch between natural supply and ETF-driven demand has created a severe shortage in available coins, fueling aggressive upward price momentum. The imbalance has been exacerbated by continued investor preference for bitcoin vs other, less liquid, and less developed coins. Institutional flows into crypto investment vehicles have further amplified the rally, signalling growing mainstream adoption. BlackRock reported a 366% quarter-over-quarter surge in crypto ETF inflows in Q2 2025, with allocations rising to $14 billion, now comprising 16.5% of its total ETF flows. Similarly, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted their second consecutive $2 billion inflow week in mid-July. This growing supply-demand imbalance has coincided with significant regulatory milestones in the U.S. Specifically, the Republicans have pushed forward three pieces of legislation (the Genius Act, the Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act) aimed at creating a regulatory framework for the growing cryptocurrency market. The Genius Act, which focuses on stablecoins, creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for their issuance and oversight, has already been signed into law by President Trump, while the Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act are yet to be passed by the Senate. Overall, the increasing crypto interest and adoption drove the crypto market capitalization to hit $4 trillion on 18 July, reflecting its strength and maturity with bitcoin in particular becoming a central part of the global investment landscape. ADVERTISEMENT BTC Rally Outlook: A Burning Topic With so many factors working in Bitcoin's favour, it seems reasonable to infer that its price will likely continue to go higher in the long term. And while this may be true, it is still important to highlight major risks that lie ahead. Kar Yong Ang, comments: 'Technically, Bitcoin looks like it is preparing for a major downward correction. BTCUSD failed to hold above the 0.618 extension level of the bullish trend, which commenced in early April. The price has formed a long wick on the daily chart, signalling an exhaustion of the bullish trend. A decline towards the 112,000 level is now highly likely. A break below 112,000 would open the way towards the 105,000 level.' BTCUSD DAILY CHART Source: TradingView Indeed, the failure to hold the 121,500 level on 14 July and the subsequent correction on 15 July occurred on very strong volume, meaning that traders are uncertain about the next big move and doubt that a rally can be sustained in the short term. Furthermore, fundamentals have turned sour lately. After a 0.1% increase in May, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, a roughly 3.5% annual rate, which is uncomfortably above the Fed's target rate. This renewed inflationary pressure diminishes the likelihood of a September interest rate cut by the Fed and may exert bearish pressure on equity and crypto valuations. A similar scenario is evident in other major economies. For example, UK CPI rose to 3.6% in June from 3.4% in May and also undermined the widespread anticipation of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). In other words, the global monetary policy may not be as accommodative as investors had hoped for previously, making them reluctant to purchase in risky assets Three BTC price action scenarios Kar Yong Ang of Octa Broker has come up with three potential scenarios for BTCUSD. The most optimistic scenario envisions a continued upward climb beyond current highs, driven by persistent institutional inflows and favourable regulatory developments. However, given signs of short-term overextension and waning upside momentum on the daily chart, this outcome appears less likely in the short term. There is the risk of a deeper, prolonged correction, particularly if macroeconomic headwinds or regulatory setbacks dampen sentiment. While not impossible, this scenario is seen as less probable for now, given strong underlying fundamentals such as limited BTC supply and sustained demand from ETFs. A more probable, base-case scenario is a modest correction toward support levels, followed by a resumption of the broader uptrend. Such a pullback would allow the market to consolidate and establish a stronger foundation, ultimately preserving the bullish structure while shaking out weak hands. Kar Yong Ang comments: 'Bitcoin looks a little stretched right now, and you can see it struggling to punch clean through resistance at the highs. A pullback into the $112,000–105,000 area would actually be healthy—that's where smart money will likely step back in. The fundamentals are still stacked in Bitcoin's favour: supply is tight, ETFs money keeps flowing, and regulatory progress is finally breaking through'. ___ Disclaimer: This press release does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences. Hashtag: #Octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Has the U.S. Dollar Found Support?
The DXY index, which tracks greenback's value relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF), has dropped by more than 10% year-to-date. This significant drop highlights a notable shift in the currency's performance against its global counterparts. The steepest decline has been against the CHF, a safe-haven currency. USDCHF has declined more than 14% this year so far. Kar Yong Ang, shares his expert opinion on the factors driving this move and potential USD performance. The U.S. dollar recorded its worst six-month decline in four decades. At one point, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) was down more than 12% and has been setting new lows almost every month since the year began. This poor performance is likely the result of structural decline—fundamental weakening of the dollar, driven by changes in the global monetary system and demand for the currency, not just short-term market fluctuations. One of the key drivers of the dollar's decline has been the reputational damage and uncertainty stemming from U.S. policy under the Trump administration, which has unsettled the established global trade order. Noticing the diminishing market confidence in Trump's policy credibility, global investors struggle to properly position themselves amid confrontational political rhetoric on the one hand and the lack of coherent, actionable policy outcomes on the other. An increasingly protectionist trade policy, characterised by punitive tariffs and open trade wars, has fractured long-standing alliances and undermined the U.S. dollar's credibility as a cornerstone of the international financial system. Compounding the damage, the recently signed-into-law 'One, Big, Beautiful Bill' risks driving the fiscal deficit sharply higher, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of U.S. finances. Aready, the national debt has surged to an unprecedented level of 37 trillion dollars, which is approximately 123% of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The long-term debt and budget challenges resulted in Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit outlook—a stark signal of deteriorating sovereign credit quality. 'Instability and uncertainty are all over the place. Normally, under these circumstances, investors would flock into the greenback, but today, the instability is stemming from the U.S. itself. That is the primary reason why global central banks keep decreasing the USD reserves and diversifying in favour of commodities like gold and safe-haven currencies like CHF,' notes Kar Yong Ang. Indeed, according to the recent World Gold Council survey, 95% of central bank respondents expect their global gold reserves to increase within a year[1]. At the same time, 43% plan to elevate gold reserves during this time, while 73% expect a moderate or significant decline in the USD holding over the coming five years. Recent macroeconomic data and policy expectations have further weighed on the U.S. dollar and reinforced the narrative of a structural shift away from it. Last month, the OECD cut its U.S. growth forecast for 2025, lowering it from 2.2% to just 1.6%, highlighting the fragility of the recovery even as inflation slows[2]. In May 2025, the Consumer Price Index rose just 0.1% month-over-month, bringing annual inflation to 2.3%. With inflation finally aligning with the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target, the data have sharpened expectations for a dovish monetary response. Indeed, the Fed is expected to make several rate cuts by year-end, which is exerting an additional downward pressure on the greenback. At the same time, there is a mounting uncertainty over the Fed's independence amid Trump's long-standing feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that Trump could replace Powell as early as this fall, months ahead of Powell's May 2026 term expiration. Given that Trump has previously criticised Powell for not lowering the rates fast enough, it seems reasonable to assume that Trump's pick for the next Chair of the Fed would be a dove, which may pressure the dollar even further. Although the USD currently looks very weak, there are signs that its recent nascent recovery may extend and continue into the future. Kar Yong Ang comments: 'First of all, investors' positioning is too bearish with lots of short positions outstanding. However, the only way to make profit on these short positions is to cover them, which will immediately trigger a rebound in DXY. Secondly, I personally believe that investors are too optimistic when it comes to Fed's rate cut expectations and risk being disappointed. And even if the Fed does deliver a rate cut in September, which is probable, it will be a classic 'sell the rumor, buy the news' kind of event'. Indeed, according to the most recent CFTC COT report, large speculators were holding a total of 4,318 net-short contracts in DXY, just 3% below the three-year high, which indicates an extremely overcrowded short trade[3]. Once traders begin to cover their short positions, the greenback will rebound. In fact, this is already happening. According to CFTC, in the week ending 1 July, large speculators increased their long exposure in DXY by 3,592 contracts, which is the sharpest one-week increase since 22 October, 2024. As for the current monetary policy expectations, they are indeed rather dovish. The latest interest rates swaps market data shows that investors are pricing in a 45% chance of two 25-basis point (bps) rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year despite the ongoing tariff issues (which will almost certainly drive inflation higher) and despite the recent upbeat Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) reading. In fact, the jobs report showed a gain of 147,000 new jobs in June, higher than the 110,000 increase expected by the market. Furthermore, the Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's favoured inflation measure, remains elevated (at 2.6%) and can rise further due to higher import costs. Overall, despite its structural weakness, the U.S. dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency. What is more, there are no obvious fundamental alternatives to USD that can be equally safe and liquid. At the same time, investors' monetary policy expectations have become a bit too dovish and need to be adjusted in light of global trade uncertainty and the still resilient labour market. 'Technically, the DXY rally, which began on 1 July, may extend into the 98.005-98.392 range, as suggested by Fibonacci projection analysis. A confident break above 98.40 and consolidation above this level would then open the way towards 99.60 and 100.00', concludes Kar Yong Ang. This article does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk, and we and Octa do not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences. ↑ ↑ ↑ This article was originally posted on FX Empire Fragile Middle East Truce Heightens Geo-political, Macroeconomic Risks, Including for Europe Big Money Inflows Electrify Talen Energy RBA Surprised by Holding Rates: How Did AUD/USD React? Stocks Playbook for Geopolitical Tensions (Overreacting is Costly) Earnings and Inflows Push Heico Shares Up 34% Limited Bounce for the Dollar After a Stronger NFP Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
