Latest news with #KaterinaMichaelides
Euronews
13-03-2025
- Science
- Euronews
Why climate change could litter Earth's orbit with space junk
A new report has revealed how the 100 most populated cities globally are becoming increasingly exposed to flooding and drought. The study, led by WaterAid with academics from the University of Bristol and Cardiff University, shows widespread drying throughout European cities. These include the Spanish capital Madrid, which was ranked second among the 49 drying cities, and the UK capital London, ranked 44th. Findings also indicate that almost one in five of the cities studied are experiencing 'climate whiplash', defined as intensifying floods and droughts. A similar proportion (20 per cent) have seen a major switch from one extreme to the other, known as 'climate hazard flips.' Co-lead scientist Katerina Michaelides, Professor of Dryland Hydrology at the University of Bristol, says, 'The findings from our study illustrate just how differently and dramatically climate change is expressing around the globe - there is no one-size-fits-all.' All European cities analysed exhibit drying trends over the past 42 years, the report found. London, Paris, Berlin, Stockholm and Istanbul could all see more frequent and long-lasting droughts as a result. Some European cities are facing 'climate hazard flips'. Barcelona and Madrid are experiencing a particularly strong flip from wet to dry. Around the globe, around 13 per cent of cities are switching to a more extreme wet climate, while the remaining 7 per cent are shifting to a more extreme dry climate. 'Places that were historically wet are becoming dry and vice versa. Other places are now increasingly battered by both extreme floods and droughts,' says Michaelides. 'A deeper understanding of localised climate hazards can support more intelligent and bespoke planning in major cities.' The study also compares each city's social and water infrastructure vulnerabilities - alongside new data on climate hazards spanning 40 years - to identify which are the most vulnerable to extreme climate changes and the least equipped to handle them. Vulnerabilities examined range from poverty to poor water and waste systems. Severe urban flooding can damage sanitation facilities, spreading diseases such as cholera and typhoid, whilst water shortages during droughts can leave millions of families without essential water. 'As the nature and intensity of natural hazards change, their impacts on urban communities will be significantly shaped by social and infrastructural vulnerabilities,' says Dr Sean Fox, Associate Professor in Global Development at the University of Bristol, who also contributed to the research. 'In other words, risk isn't just about the chance of a flood or drought occurring, it's also about how prepared communities are to deal with these hazards.' The report places European cities like Barcelona, Berlin and Paris at a higher risk than those in North America and Australia, due to the continent's aging water and waste infrastructure potentially leaving urban populations more exposed. From recent droughts in cities like Madrid and Cape Town to large-scale flooding across cities in Bangladesh and Pakistan, WaterAid claims 90 per cent of all climate disasters are driven by too much or too little water. It warns that weather-related disasters such as flooding and drought have grown fourfold in the last 50 years. This is putting major pressure on vital water access and sanitation systems and making it harder for communities and economies to prepare for, recover from, and adapt to climate change. In light of global aid cuts, WaterAid is calling on the UK, global governments, multilateral banks, and the private sector to work together to unlock investment and implement solutions to tackle climate change and water crises. 'Now, we need to turn commitments into action - for leaders to build and invest in systems worldwide that can withstand extreme weather and keep clean water flowing globally,' says Tim Wainwright, WaterAid UK's chief executive. Climate change is already causing all sorts of problems on Earth, but soon it will be making a mess in orbit around the planet too, a new study finds. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have calculated that, as global warming caused by burning of coal, oil, gas continues, it may reduce the available space for satellites in low Earth orbit by anywhere from one-third to 82 per cent by the end of the century, depending on how much carbon pollution is spewed out. That's because space will become more littered with debris as climate change lessens nature's way of cleaning it up. Part of the greenhouse effect that warms the air near Earth's surface also cools the upper parts of the atmosphere where space starts and satellites zip around in low orbit. The cooling also makes the upper atmosphere less dense, which reduces the drag on the millions of pieces of human-made debris and satellites. That drag pulls space junk down to Earth, burning it up on the way. But a cooler and less dense upper atmosphere means less space cleaning itself, resulting in space becoming more crowded, according to a study in Monday's journal Nature Sustainability. 'We rely on the atmosphere to clean up our debris. There's no other way to remove debris,' said study lead author Will Parker, an astrodynamics researcher at MIT. 'It's trash. It's garbage. And there are millions of pieces of it.' The density at 400 kilometers above Earth is decreasing by about 2 per cent a decade, said Ingrid Cnossen, a space weather scientist at the British Antarctic Survey who was not part of the research. This decrease is also likely to intensify as society pumps more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. Cnossen said in an email that the new study makes 'perfect sense' and is why scientists have to be aware of climate change's orbital effects 'so that appropriate measures can be taken to ensure its long-term sustainability.' Circling Earth are millions of pieces of debris about 3 millimeters and larger - the width of two stacked pennies - and those collide with the energy of a bullet. There are tens of thousands of plum-sized pieces of space junk that hit with the power of a crashing bus, according to The Aerospace Corporation, which monitors orbital debris. That junk includes results of old space crashes and parts of rockets with most of it too small to be tracked. There are 11,905 satellites circling Earth - 7,356 in low orbit - according to the tracking website Orbiting Now. Satellites are critical for communications, navigation, weather forecasting and monitoring environmental and national security issues. 'There used to be this mantra that space is big. And so we can we can sort of not necessarily be good stewards of the environment because the environment is basically unlimited,' Parker said. But a 2009 crash of two satellites created thousands of pieces of space junk. Also NASA measurements are showing measurable the reduction of drag, so scientists now realise that 'the climate change component is really important,' Parker said. France is preparing for a future where global heating has risen to 4C above pre-industrial levels, sparking more wildfires and eroding its coastlines. The government unveiled its third national climate adaptation plan yesterday (10 March), outlining dozens of measures to protect citizens in a possible 4C by 2100 scenario. First shared by former Prime Minister Michel Barnier in October last year, the plan received almost 6,000 contributions during a public consultation, and has been developed with scientists and other experts. "Adapting is not giving up," Agnès Pannier-Runacher, France's minister of ecological transition, biodiversity, forests, the sea and fisheries, made clear when announcing the plan on social media site X yesterday. 'The government's policy rests on two legs: on the one hand, it continues to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, on the other, it adapts to the effects of climate change.' France is aiming to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, having already seen its emissions drop by 20 per cent since 2017, according to Pannier-Runacher. But even if net zero is achieved by mid-century, scientists still predict temperatures in the country will climb by at least 4C by 2100 due to the continued impacts of burning fossil fuels. The new plan focuses on four priority areas, in geographic terms: coastlines, mountains, forests and agriculture. Pannier-Runacher visited Saint-Hilaire-de-Riez in the Vendée region on Friday 7 March, Le Monde reports, where she was able to observe the retreat of the coastline. "There is a very strong expectation from local elected officials, particularly in coastal, mountain or forest communities, but also from healthcare professionals and nursing home residents, who are already experiencing the effects of global warming," she told the French newspaper. The package is designed to help sectors across the board - from business and transport, to infrastructure and agriculture - gradually adapt to the consequences of climate change. It plots a trajectory for climate adaptation (TRACC) based on projections from the national weather agency Météo-France. In an incremental way, it prepares the country for temperature increases of 2C by 2030, 2.7C by 2050, and 4C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. There are then five categories of action: protecting people, ensuring the resilience of territories and essential services, adapting human activities, protecting natural and cultural heritage, and mobilising national resources. Specific measures include creating a national map of exposure to natural risks, maintaining affordable insurance offerings even in high-risk areas, and improving housing to remain comfortable despite rising temperatures. 'Adapting also means rethinking work,' Pannier-Runacher wrote on X. 'Faced with heatwaves, it is necessary to adjust schedules, strengthen medical monitoring and protect workers. 'Let us take inspiration from countries like Greece who are already doing this,' she said. Discussing the climate adaptation plan yesterday, Pannier-Runacher added, 'There is a form of Trumpisation of minds. Ecology is not a subject reserved for the bobos [bourgeois-bohemian subset] of the big cities.' US President Donald Trump has been gutting federal agencies dedicated to climate science since taking office in January. The French government, though it has been criticised for U-turning on some environmental measures recently, signalled a different direction with its climate plan. 'The main victims of climate change, those who risk their health or lose their homes and jobs, are the working classes, contrary to what the populists try to make us believe,' Pannier-Runacher said. France has put itself ahead of the curve on climate adaptation, after being caught unawares by a deadly heatwave in 2003. The country has a detailed national heatwave plan in place, and cities like Paris are taking efforts a step further as they prepare for potential 50C summers. Pannier-Runacher revealed that €1.6 billion in budgetary resources will be dedicated to the plan from 2025. That includes €1 billion from water agencies' budgets, and €300 million from the Barnier Fund, set up for the prevention of major natural hazards. Environmental groups have welcomed the plan, but raised concerns about how the measures will be implemented, and whether they are ambitious enough. Speaking to French news agency AFP, vice-president of France Nature Environnement Nicolas Richard said it presents "a certain number of good intentions" but faces uncertainty about "whether they are funded and how they are managed". According to a recent report from the Institute for Climate Economics, between €1 billion and €2.5 billion should be invested annually just in new buildings, €4.4 billion for housing renovation, and at least €1.5 billion per year for agriculture.
Euronews
12-03-2025
- Climate
- Euronews
What is climate whiplash? New report reveals dangers of flooding and drought in European cities
Researchers have found that 90 per cent of all climate disasters are driven by too much or too little water. ADVERTISEMENT A new report has revealed how the 100 most populated cities globally are becoming increasingly exposed to flooding and drought. The study, led by WaterAid with academics from the University of Bristol and Cardiff University, shows widespread drying throughout European cities. These include the Spanish capital Madrid, which was ranked second among the 49 drying cities, and the UK capital London, ranked 44th. Findings also indicate that almost one in five of the cities studied are experiencing 'climate whiplash', defined as intensifying floods and droughts. A similar proportion (20 per cent) have seen a major switch from one extreme to the other, known as 'climate hazard flips.' Co-lead scientist Katerina Michaelides, Professor of Dryland Hydrology at the University of Bristol, says, 'The findings from our study illustrate just how differently and dramatically climate change is expressing around the globe - there is no one-size-fits-all.' European cities are experiencing 'climate hazard flips' All European cities analysed exhibit drying trends over the past 42 years, the report found. London, Paris, Berlin, Stockholm and Istanbul could all see more frequent and long-lasting droughts as a result. Some European cities are facing 'climate hazard flips'. Barcelona and Madrid are experiencing a particularly strong flip from wet to dry. Around the globe, around 13 per cent of cities are switching to a more extreme wet climate, while the remaining 7 per cent are shifting to a more extreme dry climate. 'Places that were historically wet are becoming dry and vice versa. Other places are now increasingly battered by both extreme floods and droughts,' says Michaelides. 'A deeper understanding of localised climate hazards can support more intelligent and bespoke planning in major cities.' Europe's cities face water shortages The study also compares each city's social and water infrastructure vulnerabilities - alongside new data on climate hazards spanning 40 years - to identify which are the most vulnerable to extreme climate changes and the least equipped to handle them. Vulnerabilities examined range from poverty to poor water and waste systems. Severe urban flooding can damage sanitation facilities, spreading diseases such as cholera and typhoid, whilst water shortages during droughts can leave millions of families without essential water. 'As the nature and intensity of natural hazards change, their impacts on urban communities will be significantly shaped by social and infrastructural vulnerabilities,' says Dr Sean Fox, Associate Professor in Global Development at the University of Bristol, who also contributed to the research. ADVERTISEMENT 'In other words, risk isn't just about the chance of a flood or drought occurring, it's also about how prepared communities are to deal with these hazards.' The report places European cities like Barcelona, Berlin and Paris at a higher risk than those in North America and Australia, due to the continent's aging water and waste infrastructure potentially leaving urban populations more exposed. 90 per cent of all climate disasters driven by too much or too little water From recent droughts in cities like Madrid and Cape Town to large-scale flooding across cities in Bangladesh and Pakistan, WaterAid claims 90 per cent of all climate disasters are driven by too much or too little water. It warns that weather-related disasters such as flooding and drought have grown fourfold in the last 50 years. ADVERTISEMENT This is putting major pressure on vital water access and sanitation systems and making it harder for communities and economies to prepare for, recover from, and adapt to climate change. In light of global aid cuts, WaterAid is calling on the UK, global governments, multilateral banks, and the private sector to work together to unlock investment and implement solutions to tackle climate change and water crises. 'Now, we need to turn commitments into action - for leaders to build and invest in systems worldwide that can withstand extreme weather and keep clean water flowing globally,' says Tim Wainwright, WaterAid UK's chief executive.
The National
12-03-2025
- Climate
- The National
From flood to drought: Cairo tops list of world's ‘climate flip' cities
Flooded by the Nile for thousands of years, Cairo is facing increasingly severe drought as the world's most extreme example of a phenomenon called "climate flip". Riyadh, Jeddah and Khartoum are also in the grip of "drying trends" as the Middle East and North Africa take a pounding from climate change, a major study has found. Scientists working for the charity WaterAid have identified 24 "flip" cities where floods are turning to drought, or droughts to flooding, as the Earth's atmosphere changes. In other cities such as Amman, a tendency for dry conditions is only getting worse, while floods are intensifying in parts of the Indian subcontinent. Baghdad is in the top five cities experiencing "climate whiplash" – where both extremes are occurring more often. "In South-east Asia, we're seeing very strong wetting trends and a predominance of cities that are flipping towards extreme wet conditions," said Katerina Michaelides, a University of Bristol hydrologist who co-wrote WaterAid's report. "That's a very strong regional pattern that emerged and a lot of the most populous cities in the world are clustered in that region. "A second cluster that we're seeing emerging is the Middle East, the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, [which] are showing a very strong drying trend," she told The National. "Those are already regions that are historically dry, but they're trending towards even drier conditions, deeper, more intense droughts, longer-lasting droughts." The "climate flip" cities have, over the past two decades, endured at least 12 months more than usual of one kind of wet or dry extreme, and 12 fewer months of the other. Cairo is the most severe case, enduring "extreme dry" conditions far more often than before, while "extreme wet" months are less common. Adding to Egypt's water scarcity problems is a long-running row with Ethiopia about the building of a dam on the upper Nile. Prof Michaelides said the explanation for the "climate flip" could be that as the Earth's atmosphere is dried out by global warming, it retains more moisture than it should, then scatters it elsewhere. "In some places, more water will leave the surface," she said. "Some places will see drying because the atmosphere above that place can hold a lot more moisture. That moisture that's in the atmosphere has to move somewhere. It very rarely stays in the same place and then releases that moisture back down. It tends to move with the global wind patterns." Madrid, Riyadh, Hong Kong and Jeddah are behind Cairo in the top five "drying" cities. Lucknow, in India, is the prime example of the opposite "wetting trend", followed by Surat in Thailand and Kano in Nigeria. WaterAid's research is being shared this week with senior officials and environmentalists in Britain. Its study of 112 of the world's biggest cities warns that those facing the most severe wrath from nature are often also highly exposed for social and economic reasons. "There are hotspots emerging," said Prof Michaelides. "Parts of South Asia are in that category; parts of the Middle East [such as] Iraq; also parts of Africa like Sudan, which is compounded by conflict of course, and social vulnerability and infrastructure vulnerability. "From a country perspective, the challenges are that every city is unique in many ways. They have to look at their own climate profile and their underlying vulnerabilities, and try to assess how to best adapt to these kinds of conditions. That's not an easy thing. "Cities are like oil tankers in many ways. It's hard to really manipulate policy and governance and infrastructure quickly to adapt to these things. But at least having this information, every city can start to look at their profile and potentially with other cities ... can sit and look at what the adaptation strategies might look like."
The Guardian
12-03-2025
- Climate
- The Guardian
‘Global weirding': climate whiplash hitting world's biggest cities, study reveals
Climate whiplash is already hitting major cities around the world, bringing deadly swings between extreme wet and dry weather as the climate crisis intensifies, a report has revealed. Dozens more cities, including Lucknow, Madrid and Riyadh have suffered a climate 'flip' in the last 20 years, switching from dry to wet extremes, or vice versa. The report analysed the 100 most populous cities, plus 12 selected ones, and found that 95% of them showed a distinct trend towards wetter or drier weather. The changing climate of cities can hit citizens with worsened floods and droughts, destroy access to clean water, sanitation and food, displace communities and spread disease. Cities where the water infrastructure is already poor, such as Karachi and Khartoum, suffer the most. Cities across the world are affected but the data shows some regional trends, with drying hitting Europe, the already-parched Arabian peninsula and much of the US, while cities in south and south-east Asia are experiencing bigger downpours. The analysis illustrates the climate chaos being brought to urban areas by human-caused global heating. Too little or too much water is the cause of 90% of climate disasters. More than 4.4 billion people live in cities and the climate crisis was already known to be supercharging individual extreme weather disasters across the planet. Rising temperatures, driven by fossil fuel pollution, can exacerbate both floods and droughts because warmer air can take up more water vapour. This means the air can suck more water from the ground during hot, dry periods but also release more intense downpours when the rains come. 'Our study shows that climate change is dramatically different around the world,' said Prof Katerina Michaelides, at the University of Bristol, UK. Her co-author, Prof Michael Singer at Cardiff University, described the pattern as 'global weirding'. 'Most places we looked at are changing in some way, but in ways that are not always predictable,' Singer said. 'And given that we're looking at the world's largest cities, there are really significant numbers of people involved.' Coping with climate whiplash and flips in cities is extremely hard, said Michaelides. Many cities already face water supply, sewage and flood protection problems as their populations rapidly swell. But global heating supercharges this, with the often ageing infrastructure in rich nations designed for a climate that no longer exists, and more climate extremes making the establishment of much-needed infrastructure even harder in low income nations. The researchers have worked in Nairobi, Kenya, one of the cities suffering climate whiplash. 'People were struggling with no water, failed crops, dead livestock, with drought really impacting their livelihoods and lives for multiple years,' Michaelides said. 'Then the next thing that happens is too much rain, and everything's flooded, they lose more livestock, the city infrastructure gets overwhelmed, water gets contaminated, and then people get sick.' Sol Oyuela, executive director at NGO WaterAid, which commissioned the analysis, said: 'The threat of a global 'day zero' looms large – what happens when the 4 billion people already facing water scarcity reach that breaking point, and the food, health, energy, nature, economies, and security that depend on water are pushed to the brink?' 'Now is the time for urgent collective action, so communities can recover from disasters and be ready for whatever the future holds. This will make the world a safer place for all,' Oyuela said. The savage wildfires in Los Angeles in January were an example of a single whiplash event, with a wet period spurring vegetation growth, which then fuelled the fires when hot and dry weather followed. Such events are increasing due to human-caused global heating. The new analysis by Michaelides and Singer was much broader and examined the changes in wet and dry extremes over the past four decades in 112 major cities. It found that 17 cities across the globe have been hit by climate whiplash, suffering more frequent extremes of both wet and dry conditions. The biggest whiplashes were seen in Hangzhou in China, the Indonesian megacity of Jakarta, and Dallas in Texas. Other whiplash cities include Baghdad, Bangkok, Melbourne and Nairobi. The rapid shift between wet and dry extremes makes it difficult for cities to prepare and recover, damaging lives and livelihoods. The analysis also found that 24 cities have seen dramatic climate flips this century. The sharpest switches from wet to dry conditions have been in Cairo, Madrid and Riyadh, with Hong Kong and San Jose in California also in the top 10. Prolonged droughts can lead to water shortages, disrupted food supplies and electricity blackouts where hydropower is relied upon. Sign up to Down to Earth The planet's most important stories. Get all the week's environment news - the good, the bad and the essential after newsletter promotion The sharpest switches from dry to wet conditions were in Lucknow and Surat in India and in Nigeria's second city, Kano. Other cities with wet flips were Bogotá, Hong Kong and Tehran. Intense rains can cause flash floods, destroying homes and roads and spreading deadly waterborne diseases like cholera and dysentery when sanitation systems are overwhelmed. The researchers also assessed the level of social vulnerability and quality of infrastructure in the cities. The cities with the biggest increases in climate hazards combined with the highest vulnerability – and therefore the places facing the greatest dangers – were Khartoum in Sudan, Faisalabad in Pakistan, and Amman in Jordan. Karachi, also in Pakistan, ranked highly for vulnerability as well and is experiencing more wet extremes. Torrential rains in 2022 destroyed the family home of fisher Mohammad Yunis in Ibrahim Hyderi, a waterfront district in the city. 'We have spent many days and nights completely drenched in rain because we had no shelter,' he said. 'The weather affects everything. When it rains heavily, our children fall sick. But we don't have sufficient [clean] water. Our localities are breaking down. Houses near the drainage systems collapse due to floods. When floods come, walls fall apart. If we had enough money, we would not be living here.' Even in the cities where the changes in climate were less stark, clear trends were seen in almost all of them. The places getting drier over the last 40 years included Paris, Los Angeles, Cape Town, and Rio de Janeiro. Many of those getting wetter are in south Asia, such as Mumbai, Lahore and Kabul. The researchers also found 11 cities where the number of extreme wet or dry months had fallen in the last 20 years, including Nagoya in Japan, Lusaka in Zambia, and Guangzhou in China. The overall results of the new study are consistent with the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which found there were both regions with increases in heavy rains and others with increases in drought, as well as some regions with increases in both, said Prof Sonia Seneviratne, at ETH Zurich in Switzerland, coordinating lead author of the IPCC chapter on weather and climate extreme events. 'A few tenths of a degree warmer and the life we know becomes increasingly at risk due to climate extremes such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall,' she said. Singer said: 'We hope our report can galvanise global attention on the challenges of climate change with respect to water. Perhaps it will lead to a more realistic conversation about supporting adaptation to climate change, with a sense of compassion and understanding of the challenges people are facing, rather than just saying, well, we can't afford it.' Methodology The researchers analysed the changing climate of cities using a standard index (SPEI) that combined precipitation with evaporation each month from 1983 to 2023. Index values above a widely-used threshold were categorised as extreme. To assess changes over the four decades, the data was split into two 21-year periods. The cities that experienced at least 12 months more of one type of extreme climate (wet or dry) and at least 12 months less of the other type of extreme climate in the second 21-year period were classed as having a climate flip. The cities that had at least five months more of both extreme wet and extreme dry in the second period were classed as having developed climate whiplash. The overall wetting or drying trends were determined from all 42 years of data. The population data used to determine the 100 most populous cities was based on population density, not the administrative boundaries of the city, and therefore are a truer reflection of the city's size. Social vulnerability was measured using the standard Human Development Index and the water and waste infrastructure data was taken from a global dataset published in 2022.
