4 days ago
Japan's rice crop at risk as farms face record-breaking heat
Record high temperatures in Japan could curb the country's rice production, threatening to create shortages of the staple grain and fresh price spikes as public resentment mounts over the cost of living.
Key rice-producing regions like Tohoku and Hokuriku saw the least amount of rain in July on record that goes back nearly 80 years, while a heat wave this month has broken multiple temperature records and scorched much of the country.
Such weather extremes may impact the harvest that typically starts in late summer, at a time when rice supplies have already been strained by adverse weather in recent years. That risks fanning prices that are already about 50% higher than a year ago, which could heap pressure on household budgets and political leaders.
"Due to the heat and drought, it is almost certain that both yields and distribution volume will decrease,' Kazunuki Ohizumi, professor emeritus at Miyagi University, who specializes in agricultural policy, said of this year's crop.
Moreover, the risk may spread to other regions depending on future weather conditions, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said in an email. This year's production volume will be known after the autumn harvest, the ministry said.
A rice shortage caused a national crisis earlier this summer as record prices prompted some schools to cut back on the days they serve the staple for lunch, and shops and restaurants to charge more for rice dishes. The scarcity can be traced back to a sweltering summer in 2023 that produced the lowest yield in more than a decade.
Another poor harvest could unleash further criticism against the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which suffered a historic setback in Upper House elections in July, in part because of the rice crisis.
If there were no impact from heat and drought, rice production in Japan this year would be expected to increase about 8% to 7.35 million metric tons because the planted area is projected to expand, said Ohizumi, citing government statistics. But the extreme weather has increased uncertainty over crop yields, making it difficult to forecast output.
Others believe the efforts to boost cultivation can offset the impact from extreme weather. Masayuki Ogawa, a professor with Utsunomiya University, said he expected rice production will increase because the planted area is expanding.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture, which makes global crop forecasts, currently estimates Japan's rice production in the 2025 season at 7.28 million tons. While that's almost steady with a year earlier, it would mark the smallest crop since 2003, the data shows.
Prices are determined to a certain extent on advance contracts. But with an uncertain outlook for supply and demand, they are still likely to eventually rise, Utsunomiya University's Ogawa said.
The situation in Japan contrasts with improving supplies and slumping prices in the rest of the world thanks to favorable weather and healthy harvests in top growers like India. Asia's benchmark rice price has dropped to the lowest level in almost eight years, signaling further relief on the food bills of billions who consume the grain on a daily basis.
Japan maintains tight controls over rice imports to protect its own industry. Just 770,000 tons of tariff-free rice is shipped in each year while anything brought in separately from that is tariffed at ¥341 ($2.30) per kilogram.
While supermarket prices have retreated from their peak for now, the government is scrambling to find lasting solutions — not just to recent weather events, but to a warming climate that's threatening long-term disruptions to the country's prized rice industry.
In a break from a decades-old policy, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba this month encouraged farmers to disregard a cap on rice production and boost cultivation. The government has set up a task force and deployed water trucks to help irrigate crops.
The country is also now growing rice in areas once considered too cold for cultivation. The northern island of Hokkaido has been the second-biggest producing region every year since 2018, and has a higher output per unit area than the top producer, Niigata Prefecture.
