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Regulatory risk a red signal to rail mergers, investors told
Regulatory risk a red signal to rail mergers, investors told

Yahoo

time21-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Regulatory risk a red signal to rail mergers, investors told

NEW YORK – Executives from Canadian National, CPKC, CSX and Norfolk Southern poured cold water on talk about potential Class I railroad mergers during an investment conference this week. Mergers have become a hot topic in some railroad boardrooms in recent months amid stagnant rail volume, revenue and stock prices. Some see a U.S. transcontinental merger as a way to jump-start volume and earnings growth. CPKC (NYSE: CP) Chief Executive Keith Creel, who put together the historic 2023 merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern, said the Surface Transportation Board's tougher 2001 merger review rules are an insurmountable barrier. 'There's always been an argument why it could make sense, but the arguments would have to be able to ignore the regulatory risk that is undeniably there,' Creel told the Wolfe Research 18th Annual Global Transportation & Industrials Conference CP-KCS deal was judged under the STB's old merger review rules. 'The standards that we had to meet to get our deal approved pale in comparison to the standards that are untested in the new merger rules: To create a network that not only protects competition, but enhances competition, that protects service and enhances service,' Creel said. 'There is … not a hill of regulatory risk to climb. There's mountains of regulatory risk.' And that risk, he said, outweighs any benefits that might flow from a transcontinental merger. 'So quite frankly, I don't think it's necessary. I don't think it's needed. I don't think it's realistic.'The CP-KCS merger boosted competition, prompted other railroads to launch new interline cross-border service, and was accomplished without the service problems that followed the Union Pacific-Southern Pacific merger and the CSX and Norfolk Southern split of Conrail three decades ago. Could CPKC serve as a template for a transcontinental merger? No, Creel said, because there was zero overlap between the CP and KCS systems, so no customers were left with fewer rail options — and shippers wound up with more rail choices. 'Those facts simply don't exist with any other proposed merger that might be out there,' Creel said. CN (NYSE: CNI) Chief Executive Tracy Robinson said industry chatter about mergers — something she says has always existed — increased after President Donald Trump was elected. 'But as you look at it from a rail perspective, the bar is pretty high,' she told the conference on Tuesday, noting that the merger review rules require railroads to show their combination would improve — rather than merely not harm — competition. 'So that's a high bar. That doesn't mean that it's not possible and someone won't take a run at it.' 'You never say never on any of these, which is why there's still chatter. And so I'm sure that everyone does the game theory around the different kind of combinations and permutations,' Robinson said of railroads sizing up their potential merger partners and scenarios. 'And that's the right thing to do from a governance perspective. We should always be looking at the best way to serve our customers, and there's different ways to do that.' CN is nurturing interline partnerships that aim to replicate single-line service. In the past two years, CN has launched new interline intermodal service with Union Pacific and Ferromex to reach Mexico and with Norfolk Southern to reach Kansas City and Atlanta. 'Right now, we're pretty focused on making sure that we're serving our customers well. … The best way to do that is with the right kind of partnerships with our connecting railroads, whether it's short lines or Class I's,' Robinson Southern (NYSE: NSC) Chief Financial Officer Jason Zampi said he can see the advantages of a railroad that stretches coast to coast. 'I see a lot of benefit in a transcon merger. I think there could be a lot of synergies there and cost takeout,' Zampi said at the conference Tuesday. 'But I also view the regulatory framework as pretty challenging right now.' That said, does the Trump administration's pro-business, anti-regulatory stance mean the timing might be right for a pair of Class I railroads to make the first attempt at a merger under the STB's 2001 rules? 'I don't know. We'll see how it shakes out,' he said. But right now Zampi says NS is focused on its core strategy of boosting productivity while providing reliable service that will lead to growth in volume, revenue and profits. CSX (NASDAQ: CSX) Chief Commercial Officer Kevin Boone said mergers are not required to boost railroad stock prices, which have been relatively stagnant the past few years. 'We think there's a lot of untapped value that we can control and drive from a share price perspective,' he told the conference, adding that a merger is not the focus of the CSX management team. Last month Union Pacific Chief Executive Jim Vena told Trains that a transcontinental merger would improve service, divert freight off the highway, and help U.S. exporters and importers better compete in global markets. Vena also contends that a Class I merger proposal could gain STB approval when the timing is right. 'I've always thought that it was possible,' he said. 'Now whether we're in the right situation with everything – who knows and we'll see what happens.' BNSF Railway told Trains that it doesn't see a catalyst for a merger, noting that customers, policymakers and communities don't favor further consolidation in the rail industry. Subscribe to FreightWaves' Rail e-newsletter and get the latest insights on rail freight right in your team will drive overhaul of US railroad regulator ITS Logistics report shows surge stressing US rail ramps after tariffs slashed CN continues work to expand capacity and fluidity in Vancouver Southern California international intermodal volume sees weekly decline The post Regulatory risk a red signal to rail mergers, investors told appeared first on FreightWaves.

CPKC President and CEO Keith Creel to address 2025 Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference
CPKC President and CEO Keith Creel to address 2025 Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference

Malaysian Reserve

time08-05-2025

  • Business
  • Malaysian Reserve

CPKC President and CEO Keith Creel to address 2025 Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference

CALGARY, AB, May 8, 2025 /PRNewswire/ – Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSX: CP) (NYSE: CP) (CPKC) President and Chief Executive Officer Keith Creel will address the 2025 Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference on May 21, 2025, at 10:20 a.m. ET. CPKC will provide access to the live audio webcasts at A replay will also be available following the conclusion of the events. About CPKCWith its global headquarters in Calgary, Alta., Canada, CPKC is the first and only single-line transnational railway linking Canada, the United States and México, with unrivaled access to major ports from Vancouver to Atlantic Canada to the Gulf Coast to Lázaro Cárdenas, México. Stretching approximately 20,000 route miles and employing 20,000 railroaders, CPKC provides North American customers unparalleled rail service and network reach to key markets across the continent. CPKC is growing with its customers, offering a suite of freight transportation services, logistics solutions and supply chain expertise. Visit to learn more about the rail advantages of CPKC. CP-IR

CPKC President and CEO Keith Creel to address 2025 Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference
CPKC President and CEO Keith Creel to address 2025 Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference

Cision Canada

time08-05-2025

  • Business
  • Cision Canada

CPKC President and CEO Keith Creel to address 2025 Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference

CALGARY, AB, May 8, 2025 /CNW/ - Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSX: CP) (NYSE: CP) (CPKC) President and Chief Executive Officer Keith Creel will address the 2025 Wolfe Research Global Transportation & Industrials Conference on May 21, 2025, at 10:20 a.m. ET. CPKC will provide access to the live audio webcasts at A replay will also be available following the conclusion of the events. About CPKC With its global headquarters in Calgary, Alta., Canada, CPKC is the first and only single-line transnational railway linking Canada, the United States and México, with unrivaled access to major ports from Vancouver to Atlantic Canada to the Gulf Coast to Lázaro Cárdenas, México. Stretching approximately 20,000 route miles and employing 20,000 railroaders, CPKC provides North American customers unparalleled rail service and network reach to key markets across the continent. CPKC is growing with its customers, offering a suite of freight transportation services, logistics solutions and supply chain expertise. Visit to learn more about the rail advantages of CPKC. CP-IR

Class I railroads keep optimistic outlooks despite trade uncertainty
Class I railroads keep optimistic outlooks despite trade uncertainty

Yahoo

time02-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Class I railroads keep optimistic outlooks despite trade uncertainty

Despite mounting uncertainty over tariffs, trade policy and the economy, most major railroads held firm on their 2025 outlooks — contrasting with a wave of guidance cuts across other industries. Among the five publicly traded Class I railroads, Canadian National, Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific kept their guidance intact, while Canadian Pacific Kansas City and CSX made slight downward adjustments during their first-quarter earnings calls over the past three weeks. The guidance serves as a key barometer of executives' confidence in market conditions. CPKC (NYSE: CP) maintained its forecast for mid-single-digit volume growth but trimmed its earnings guidance slightly, citing the impact of a stronger-than-expected Canadian dollar. (The company reports in Canadian dollars.) 'We're undoubtedly off to a strong start in 2025 and we're experiencing a strong start to the second quarter as well,' CEO Keith Creel said. '​​That being said, there's certainly an undeniable macro-environment uncertainty that exists, trade policy uncertainty, and currency uncertainty. As such, based on what we do know today, we do feel it's prudent and responsible to adjust our guidance at this time.' Despite tariff risks to its cross-border network, CPKC still expects merger-related volume growth this year. It also aims to develop new traffic linking Canada and Mexico as the U.S. raises trade barriers. 'We stepped into this trade storm that we're facing to become market makers. We're seeing opportunities with new trade flows between Canada and Mexico,' Creel said. They include southbound shipments of refined fuels, LPGs, plastics and grain and northbound moves of appliances, furniture, food products, finished vehicles and auto parts. Similarly, CSX (NASDAQ: CSX) still expects to see full-year volume growth but withdrew prior guidance that put traffic gains in a range of 2% to 5%. Chief Commercial Officer Kevin Boone said freight demand remains strong despite the trade war that is creating economic uncertainty. The railroad also is banking on carload growth as new customer facilities open and ramp up production this year. CPKC and CSX were far from alone as many major companies reduced their financial guidance or pulled it outright when announcing first-quarter earnings. Among the companies to suspend or reduce their outlooks: GM, Stellantis, UPS, JetBlue, Delta Air Lines and Harley-Davidson. CN (NYSE: CNI) projects that its revenue ton-miles will increase by 2% to 5% this year. Its forecast depends largely on support from new customer facilities coming online this year, as well as easy comparisons to last year, when labor unrest at the railway and Canadian ports dented volumes. 'There's no question that uncertainty has increased over the last few months and we're seeing a heightened risk of recession in both Canada and the U.S.,' CN CEO Tracy Robinson said. 'Now it's difficult to say what will happen from here. While we remain optimistic that the U.S. will ultimately reach trade agreements with Canada, China and other countries, we don't know what those deals will look like nor when they will happen. What we do know is that CN is well-positioned to enable global trade regardless of potential changes in trade patterns.' NS (NYSE: NSC) is sticking with its forecast of 3% revenue growth for the year, along with 1.5 points of improvement to its operating ratio. 'At this time, there's no clear information on how tariffs may impact our end markets and revenues,' CEO Mark George said. About 75% of Norfolk Southern's traffic is domestic business. 'How tariffs play out is going to be hard to say, but I don't think it's going to be as meaningful as the risk we have on the broader economy,' George said. NS, which stumbled operationally for more than a year after the February 2023 hazardous materials derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, is now operating smoothly and regaining traffic lost to the highway and rival CSX. 'Our intense focus on recapturing market share gives us confidence that we are well-positioned to mitigate some of the uncertain market conditions that we see,' Chief Commercial Officer Ed Elkins said. In affirming Union Pacific's (NYSE: UNP) outlook for the year, Chief Financial Officer Jennifer Hamann said that 'it is likely going to be a bumpy ride.' But CEO Jim Vena said that was no reason for UP to walk back its forecast, particularly since the railroad is operating well and handles products that consumers and industries use every day. 'The easy thing would've been to come in this morning and just say, listen, there's so much noise we're pulling our guidance,' Vena said. 'But we have a job to do, and our job is to react to whatever's thrown at us at Union Pacific.' Traffic volume has continued to hold up so far in the second quarter, and Vena says trade policy will be sorted out sooner or later. 'I've never bet against the United States economy or the United States in general,' he said. 'So at the end of the day, I think we end up in a good place, whether that's in a few weeks or whether that's in six months.' BNSF Railway, which is owned by conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, will report its first-quarter earnings over the weekend alongside its parent company. The post Class I railroads keep optimistic outlooks despite trade uncertainty appeared first on FreightWaves. Sign in to access your portfolio

CPKC's first-quarter profits rise despite trade war
CPKC's first-quarter profits rise despite trade war

Yahoo

time01-05-2025

  • Business
  • Yahoo

CPKC's first-quarter profits rise despite trade war

Canadian Pacific Kansas City reported higher first-quarter revenue and profits as it carried more freight, but the railway also reduced its full-year outlook due to lingering uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy. 'We're undoubtedly off to a strong start in 2025, and we're experiencing a strong start to the second quarter as well,' CEO Keith Creel told investors and analysts on the railway's earnings call late Wednesday. '​​That being said, there's certainly an undeniable macro-environment uncertainty that exists, trade policy uncertainty and currency uncertainty. As such, based on what we do know today, we do feel it's prudent and responsible to adjust our guidance at this time.' Although CPKC (NYSE: CP) still expects traffic to grow between 4% and 6% this year, the railway now forecasts 10% to 14% earnings growth, down from 12% to 18% in its January outlook. The railway's first-quarter operating income increased 15%, to $940 million, as revenue grew 8%, to $2.8 billion. Earnings per share increased 17%, to 70 cents. CPKC's operating ratio was 65.3%, a 2.1-point was up 4% based on revenue ton-miles, or 3% when measured by carloads and intermodal containers. The growth was driven by CPKC's grain, coal, potash, automotive and intermodal traffic. Shipments of forest products; energy, chemicals and plastics; and metals, minerals and consumer products all declined. CPKC's cross-border automotive and steel traffic, as well as soybean exports from the U.S. to China, are the most at risk from ongoing trade disputes, Chief Marketing Officer John Brooks says. But as tariffs raise trade barriers between the U.S. and its North American neighbors, there are opportunities for CPKC to develop new traffic linking Canada and Mexico. 'We stepped into this trade storm that we're facing to become market makers. We're seeing opportunities with new trade flows between Canada and Mexico,' Creel include sending more Canadian refined fuels, liquefied petroleum gas, plastics and grain to Mexico — and handling more shipments of appliances, furniture, food products, finished vehicles and auto parts from Mexico to Canada. 'CPKC uniquely serves as a land bridge between Canada and Mexico,' Creel said of the network, which was the product of the 2023 merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern. CPKC also is urging the governments of Canada and Mexico to adopt policies that would support growth in trade, such as streamlining some regulations affecting cross-border grain moves. 'We're hearing from both governments a genuine desire to see the Canada-Mexico trade relationship mature and deepen, and we're playing a major role in supporting that agenda,' Creel said. A 60-day CPKC sales blitz, involving discussions with 500 customers, drummed up $100 million in new merchandise and energy, chemicals, and plastics business that will move via CPKC's Canada-Mexico land bridge across the U.S., Brooks says. Creel says he had discussions with the CEO of a Canadian retailer about how to replace products imported from the U.S. Many of the products, he says, were actually produced in Mexico and trucked across the U.S. border for processing or packaging before being trucked to Canada. '​​When you're a railroad that can uniquely connect the origin and destination, and the middleman is redundant or not necessary … that creates opportunities,' Creel says. Meanwhile, CPKC's cross-border Mexico Midwest Express intermodal service, which links Chicago with points in Mexico, continues to grow. Volume was up 42% for the quarter. More growth is on the way thanks to Schneider's first moves of auto parts. For the quarter, CPKC's key operational and safety metrics all First look: CPKC earnings The post CPKC's first-quarter profits rise despite trade war appeared first on FreightWaves.

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