Latest news with #KellyFast
Yahoo
03-04-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
NASA catches a glimpse of 'city-killer' asteroid before it disappears until 2028
Astronomers have gotten a glimpse of the "city-killer" asteroid before it disappears until 2028, according to NASA. The space rock, called 2024 YR4, was previously given up to a 3.1% chance of striking Earth in December 2032, but astronomers have since eliminated the possibility of a strike at that time based on further observations. MORE: 3.5 billion-year-old crater created by meteorite impact found in Australia, scientists say Astronomers are watching 2024 YR4 closely, trying to learn everything they can before it disappears from view by mid-April, Kelly Fast, a planetary defense officer at NASA, told ABC News earlier this year. Its unique elongated orbit takes the asteroid around the sun and into Earth's vicinity before it ventures far out between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter and out of sight, Fast said. NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies used the James Webb Space Telescope -- the largest, most powerful telescope ever launched into space -- to capture photos of the asteroid, the space agency announced on Wednesday. New infrared observations indicate that the asteroid measures between 174 feet and 220 feet in diameter -- about the size of the 10-story building, according to NASA. While it is not forecast to strike Earth in 2032, the asteroid now has a 1.7% probability of hitting the moon at that time, the space agency said. The space rock was first discovered on Dec. 27 by astronomers monitoring the ATLAS telescope at the University of Hawaii, Fast said. MORE: Chance of asteroid striking Earth in the next decade rises to 3.1%, NASA says In the past, even when the asteroid passed through the inner solar system, it didn't always come close to where Earth was at the time, which is why it was only recently discovered, Fast said. The asteroid has been dubbed a "city-killer" due to its size and potential to cause major destruction. It is large enough to cause localized damage were it to strike a populated city, Fast said. In 1908, the similarly sized Tunguska asteroid flattened trees over an area of about 1,250 miles after it exploded in the skies over Siberia. NASA has been tasked by Congress with locating asteroids larger than 450 feet in length, which are large enough to do "regional" damage in the event of a strike, Fast said. MORE: There's a small chance an asteroid could hit Earth within the next decade, says NASA The asteroid currently has a 1.1% chance of striking Earth on Dec. 22, 2047, according to NASA. More than a 2% chance of an asteroid strike is "uncommon," Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told ABC News in February. But astronomers will continue to monitor the asteroid closely. "We don't want to take any chances," Farnocchia said. NASA catches a glimpse of 'city-killer' asteroid before it disappears until 2028 originally appeared on
Axios
21-02-2025
- Science
- Axios
An asteroid could hit Earth in 2032. Don't panic — yet
The chances of a 130- to 300-foot-wide asteroid hitting Earth just a few days before Christmas 2032 are increasing — but don't panic (or celebrate) just yet. Why it matters: The near-Earth asteroid, officially named "2024 YR4," could be a regional hazard if it actually hits the planet, NASA says. Driving the news: The odds that YR4 will hit Earth have been creeping up over the past few days, and stand at 2.1% as of Feb. 12. Those probably aren't numbers you'd play in Vegas, but it's still a 1-in-48 chance of impact. Threat level: YR4 currently rates as a 3 on the 0-to-10 Torino scale, which measures asteroid collisions' potential hazards. That translates into possible "localized damage" — which means you wouldn't want to be near the impact zone, but this isn't considered an existential Earth-wide threat. Reality check: YR4 was only first reported to near-Earth asteroid watchers in late January, and it's possible that its impact odds will lessen as researchers spend more time observing and learning about it and its path through space. What they're saying: "Even though it's a very, very low impact probability, it's not often that something this size even reaches that level," Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer at NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, tells Axios. "It's a chance to continue to bring the capabilities we have to bear to get the most information possible, to hopefully get enough information for the probability to drop to zero, to know well enough that it's going to pass the Earth safely — and if not, then to have that information also." "But it's so early that, at 2%, it's at that level where, okay, planetary defenders of the world, keep an eye out. But otherwise, it's not something to lose sleep over." What's next: NASA is planning to launch the Near-Earth Object Surveyor space telescope later this decade, which will look for potentially threatening objects using infrared sensors. Those are better able to spot darkly-colored asteroids compared to visible light telescopes, Fast says. And in 2022, NASA successfully tested asteroid-deflection technology that one day could truly save our bacon — no Bruce Willis or Ben Affleck required.
Yahoo
05-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
A massive asteroid has a chance to hit Earth. Here's what to know.
A colossal explosion in the sky, unleashing energy hundreds of times greater than the Hiroshima bomb. A blinding flash nearly as bright as the sun. Shockwaves powerful enough to flatten everything for miles. It may sound apocalyptic, but a newly detected asteroid nearly the size of a football field now has a greater than one percent chance of colliding with Earth in about eight years. Such an impact has the potential for city-level devastation, depending on where it strikes. Scientists aren't panicking yet, but they are watching closely. "At this point, it's 'Let's pay a lot of attention, let's get as many assets as we can observing it,'" Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, told AFP. What we know 2024 YR4 and its chances of hitting Earth Dubbed 2024 YR4, the asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Based on its brightness, astronomers estimate it is between 130 and 300 feet wide. "An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the European Space Agency said in a statement. By New Year's Eve, it had landed on the desk of Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer at US space agency NASA, as an object of concern. "You get observations, they drop off again. This one looked like it had the potential to stick around," she told AFP. The risk assessment kept climbing, and on January 29, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a global planetary defense collaboration, issued a memo. According to the latest calculations from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, there is a 1.6% chance the asteroid will strike Earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at Level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is "a close encounter" that warrants attention from astronomers and the public. If it does hit, possible impact sites include over the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, the IAWN memo states. 2024 YR4 follows a highly elliptical, four-year orbit, swinging through the inner planets before shooting past Mars and out toward Jupiter. For now, it's zooming away from Earth -- its next close pass will not come until 2028. "The odds are very good that not only will this not hit Earth, but at some point in the next months to few years, that probability will go to zero," said Betts. A similar scenario unfolded in 2004 with Apophis, an asteroid initially projected to have a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029. Further observations ruled out an impact. "City killer" category The most infamous asteroid impact occurred 66 million years ago, when a six-mile-wide space rock triggered a global winter, wiping out the dinosaurs and 75 percent of all species. By contrast, 2024 YR4 falls into the "city killer" category. "If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs," said Betts. The best modern comparison is the 1908 Tunguska Event, when an asteroid or comet fragment measuring 30-50 meters exploded over Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 770 square miles. Like that impactor, 2024 YR4 would be expected to blow up in the sky, rather than leaving a crater on the ground. "We can calculate the energy... using the mass and the speed," said Andrew Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. For 2024 YR4, the explosion from an airburst would equal around eight megatons of TNT -- more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. If it explodes over the ocean, the impact would be less concerning, unless it happens near a coastline triggering a tsunami. Time to prepare The good news, experts stress, is that we have plenty of time to prepare. Rivkin led the investigation for NASA's 2022 DART mission, which successfully nudged an asteroid off its course using a spacecraft -- a strategy known as a "kinetic impactor." The target asteroid posed no threat to Earth, making it an ideal test subject. "I don't see why it wouldn't work" again, he said. The bigger question is whether major nations would fund such a mission if their own territory was not under threat. Other, more experimental ideas exist. Lasers could vaporize part of the asteroid to create a thrust effect, pushing it off course. A "gravity tractor," a large spacecraft that slowly tugs the asteroid away using its own gravitational pull, has also been theorized. If all else fails, the long warning time means authorities could evacuate the impact zone. "Nobody should be scared about this," said Fast. "We can find these things, make these predictions and have the ability to plan." Still, NASA tracks close approaches and calculates the odds of those space rocks — including asteroids, meteors and meteorites — impacting Earth. "The majority of near-Earth objects have orbits that don't bring them very close to Earth, and therefore pose no risk of impact, but a small fraction of them – called potentially hazardous asteroids – require more attention," according to the website of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which manages the center dedicated to studying near-Earth objects for NASA. USAID to merge into State Department with major budget cuts Details on Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products set to take effect next week Taliban shows life in Afghanistan over 3 years after U.S. withdrawal
CBS News
05-02-2025
- Science
- CBS News
A "city-killer" asteroid has a slim chance to crash into Earth. Here's what to know.
A colossal explosion in the sky, unleashing energy hundreds of times greater than the Hiroshima bomb. A blinding flash nearly as bright as the sun. Shockwaves powerful enough to flatten everything for miles. It may sound apocalyptic, but a newly detected asteroid nearly the size of a football field now has a greater than one percent chance of colliding with Earth in about eight years. Such an impact has the potential for city-level devastation, depending on where it strikes. Scientists aren't panicking yet, but they are watching closely. "At this point, it's 'Let's pay a lot of attention, let's get as many assets as we can observing it,'" Bruce Betts, chief scientist of The Planetary Society, told AFP. What we know 2024 YR4 and its chances of hitting Earth Dubbed 2024 YR4, the asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Based on its brightness, astronomers estimate it is between 130 and 300 feet wide. "An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the European Space Agency said in a statement. By New Year's Eve, it had landed on the desk of Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer at US space agency NASA, as an object of concern. "You get observations, they drop off again. This one looked like it had the potential to stick around," she told AFP. The risk assessment kept climbing, and on January 29, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a global planetary defense collaboration, issued a memo. According to the latest calculations from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, there is a 1.6% chance the asteroid will strike Earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at Level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is "a close encounter" that warrants attention from astronomers and the public. If it does hit, possible impact sites include over the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, the IAWN memo states. 2024 YR4 follows a highly elliptical, four-year orbit, swinging through the inner planets before shooting past Mars and out toward Jupiter. For now, it's zooming away from Earth -- its next close pass will not come until 2028. "The odds are very good that not only will this not hit Earth, but at some point in the next months to few years, that probability will go to zero," said Betts. A similar scenario unfolded in 2004 with Apophis, an asteroid initially projected to have a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029. Further observations ruled out an impact. "City killer" category The most infamous asteroid impact occurred 66 million years ago, when a six-mile-wide space rock triggered a global winter, wiping out the dinosaurs and 75 percent of all species. By contrast, 2024 YR4 falls into the "city killer" category. "If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs," said Betts. The best modern comparison is the 1908 Tunguska Event, when an asteroid or comet fragment measuring 30-50 meters exploded over Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 770 square miles. Like that impactor, 2024 YR4 would be expected to blow up in the sky, rather than leaving a crater on the ground. "We can calculate the energy... using the mass and the speed," said Andrew Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. For 2024 YR4, the explosion from an airburst would equal around eight megatons of TNT -- more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. If it explodes over the ocean, the impact would be less concerning, unless it happens near a coastline triggering a tsunami. Time to prepare The good news, experts stress, is that we have plenty of time to prepare. Rivkin led the investigation for NASA's 2022 DART mission, which successfully nudged an asteroid off its course using a spacecraft -- a strategy known as a "kinetic impactor." The target asteroid posed no threat to Earth, making it an ideal test subject. "I don't see why it wouldn't work" again, he said. The bigger question is whether major nations would fund such a mission if their own territory was not under threat. Other, more experimental ideas exist. Lasers could vaporize part of the asteroid to create a thrust effect, pushing it off course. A "gravity tractor," a large spacecraft that slowly tugs the asteroid away using its own gravitational pull, has also been theorized. If all else fails, the long warning time means authorities could evacuate the impact zone. "Nobody should be scared about this," said Fast. "We can find these things, make these predictions and have the ability to plan." Still, NASA tracks close approaches and calculates the odds of those space rocks — including asteroids, meteors and meteorites — impacting Earth. "The majority of near-Earth objects have orbits that don't bring them very close to Earth, and therefore pose no risk of impact, but a small fraction of them – called potentially hazardous asteroids – require more attention," according to the website of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which manages the center dedicated to studying near-Earth objects for NASA.
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
There's a small chance an asteroid could hit Earth within the next decade, says NASA
A large asteroid could pass close enough to Earth within the next decade that there's a chance it could strike the planet, according to NASA. The space rock, named 2024 YR4, is between 130 feet and 330 feet in diameter and could hit Earth in 2032, according to NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies. MORE: Asteroid nearly hits Earth in Siberia, with a 2nd massive asteroid passing this week But that likelihood is low, with just a 1.3% chance that the asteroid could make direct impact on the planet on Dec. 22, 2032, according to space experts. Astronomers monitoring the ATLAS telescope at the University of Hawaii first spotted the asteroid as it was moving away from Earth on Dec. 27 and reported it to the International Astronomical Union Minor Planet Center, which determined it had never before been seen, Kelly Fast, a planetary defense officer at NASA, told ABC News. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an "interesting" orbit, Fast said. The elongated path takes the asteroid around the sun and into Earth's vicinity before it ventures far out between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter, she said. "In the past, even though it's passed through the inner solar system before, it didn't always pass by where the Earth happened to be, where it could be picked up easily," Fast said, explaining why the asteroid was only recently discovered. MORE: Asteroid to enter Earth's orbit temporarily: What to know about 'mini-moon' Because of its unique orbit, astronomers are trying to learn everything they can about 2024 YR4 before it disappears out of sight after April, Fast said. It's not expected to be visible again until 2028. The end of 2032 is when astronomers predict 2024 YR will come close to Earth again, Fast said, adding that further observations are expected to provide data to support the likelihood that 2024 YR4 will avoid hitting Earth. "The worldwide community is continuing to take observations," Fast said. "it can't all happen in a day, because the asteroid has to keep moving in the sky." Astronomers estimate the size of asteroids based on how much light they reflect. Based on current data, 2024 YR is large enough for it to potentially cause localized damage were it to strike a populated city, Fast said. In 1908, the Tunguska asteroid, which was a similar size, flattened trees over an area of about 1,250 miles after it exploded in the skies over Siberia. MORE: 'Asteroid hunter' digs deep into massive space object that's set to make close pass to Earth Congress has tasked NASA with locating asteroids larger than 450 feet in length – large enough to potentially do "regional" damage were it to strike the planet, Fast said. Smaller asteroids, within a few yards in diameter, tend to be disintegrated by Earth's atmosphere and transformed into fireballs, Fast said. NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Asteroid Watch tracks asteroids and comets that will make relatively close approaches to Earth. Five asteroids are forecast to pass near Earth in the coming days. On Friday, two asteroids are expected to pass near Earth, according to the updated list. Asteroid 2025 BR2, with JPL describes as an "airplane-size" space rock about 67 feet long, is expected to pass within 3.21 million miles of Earth, while another asteroid, 2015 DJ155 – two-and-a-half times as large, at 170 feet – is expected to pass within 4.42 million miles of Earth. Two more asteroids, 2025 BG4 and 2025 BR7 – 75 and 100 feet in length, respectively – are forecast to pass within 3.09 million miles and 3.58 million miles of Earth, respectively, also on Friday. On Sunday, 2025 BU, which JPL describe as being about the size of a house, at around 54 feet in length, is predicted to pass within 2.1 million miles of Earth, according to Asteroid Watch. Fast emphasized that although these asteroids are passing "relatively" close to Earth, they're still a great distance away. The moon itself is fewer than 240,000 miles from Earth and there are often asteroids passing Earth within that distance, she said. "Space is big, and so that's very far away," Fast said. There's a small chance an asteroid could hit Earth within the next decade, says NASA originally appeared on
