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Straits Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Asian container liners set for profit drop as tariff truce ends
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox A sharp drop in shipping rates could be on the cards later in 2025 as US tariffs kick in. Hong Kong - Asian container liners' profits might have just peaked. A sharp drop in shipping rates could be on the cards later in 2025 after tariff-driven demand in the second quarter pulled forward volumes from the traditional third-quarter peak season. Transpacific trade picked up during the US-China tariff truce with freight prices up sharply in June. As capacity recovered, smaller players like China United Lines even started resumed transpacific services after a period of absence. 'Container volume data seems to suggest that Chinese liners saw the greatest increase in demand during the tariff truce, compared to peers in Japan and South Korea, which suggests the former could potentially see a more robust quarter,' said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kenneth Loh. The rest of the year could be dampened by weaker trade growth as sentiment remains soft, while volumes brought forward could trigger deeper rate corrections, said Philip Damas, managing director and head of Supply Chain Advisors at Drewry Group. Earnings from Japanese liners are showing the peak might be over, with Mitsui OSK Lines failing to impress investors as US tariff threats impacted its container shipping business, and Nippon Yusen KK cutting full-year guidance on currency fluctuations and tariff turmoil. Chinese peers, meanwhile, might get one last cheer before a harsher reality sets in, as front-loading and strong exports in the first half could boost the likes of Cosco Shipping Holdings. But signs of slowing trade in China after record-breaking volumes signal the front-loading boost could start to peter out. A tariff reprieve merely postpones demand headwinds, HSBC analysts including Parash Jain wrote in a mid-July note. 'Even worse, the accelerated vessel delivery schedule will collide with potentially weakening demand, exacerbating overcapacity.' From the third quarter on, transpacific container traffic is set to decline with only a slight seasonal uptick seen in the second quarter of 2026, said Mr Damas. 'The container shipping market is fundamentally in a cyclical downturn, with temporary rate spikes driven only by disruptive shocks rather than demand-side strength.' Beyond mainland China and Japan, Taiwan's Evergreen Marine and Yang Ming Marine Transport could see full-year earnings fall by more than half as trade uncertainties weigh. In Europe, AP Moller-Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are also expected to see a continued slowdown. US-China trade talks are progressing with US President Donald Trump set to make the final call on maintaining a tariff truce with China. But even tariffs considered favourable could still weigh on rates and volumes, said Mr Damas, noting the revised 15 per cent tariff on Japan is still higher than a year ago and is likely to reduce Japanese containerised exports to the United States overall. 'For China, it is too early to say how adverse the impact of revised tariffs will be on container lines' according to Mr Damas. 'There are signs that China exports to regions other than the US are growing fast.' China's trade surplus reached record levels in the first six months of the year, as the country sought to diversity exports away from the US and tapped South-east Asia. Somewhat shielded from tariff rumblings, more high-growth markets such as intra-Asia trade lanes are displacing the transpacific in terms of global importance amid such uncertainties, according to BI's Mr Loh. Since this March, China-Asean export volumes are now double that of China-US, traditionally the most important route in container shipping. Drewry's Mr Damas is also seeing container lines shift China-built ships from US-connected routes to non-US routes, likely to avoid levies due to be imposed by the US administration from October. 'We expect that container lines will cancel many more sailings, increase demolitions of ships and take other measures to manage over-supply in the second half of this year,' he said. BLOOMBERG
Business Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Asian container liners set for profit drop as tariff boom fades
[HONG KONG] Asian container liners' profits might have just peaked. A sharp drop in shipping rates could be on the cards later this year after tariff-driven demand in the second quarter pulled forward volumes from the traditional third-quarter peak season. Transpacific trade picked up during the US-China tariff truce with freight prices up sharply in June. As capacity recovered, smaller players such as China United Lines even started resumed transpacific services after a period of absence. 'Container volume data seems to suggest that Chinese liners saw the greatest increase in demand during the tariff truce, compared to peers in Japan and South Korea, which suggests the former could potentially see a more robust quarter,' said Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) analyst Kenneth Loh. The rest of the year could be dampened by weaker trade growth as sentiment remains soft, while volumes brought forward could trigger deeper rate corrections, said Philip Damas, managing director and head of Supply Chain Advisors at Drewry Group. Earnings from Japanese liners are showing the peak might be over, with Mitsui OSK Lines failing to impress investors as US tariff threats impacted its container shipping business, and Nippon Yusen KK cutting full-year guidance on currency fluctuations and tariff turmoil. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Chinese peers, meanwhile, might get one last cheer before a harsher reality sets in, as front-loading and strong exports in the first half could boost the likes of Cosco Shipping Holdings. Petering out Signs of slowing trade in China after record-breaking volumes signal the front-loading boost could start to peter out. A tariff reprieve merely postpones demand headwinds, HSBC analysts, including Parash Jain, wrote in a mid-July note. 'Even worse, the accelerated vessel delivery schedule will collide with potentially weakening demand, exacerbating overcapacity.' From the third quarter on, transpacific container traffic is set to decline with only a slight seasonal uptick seen in the second quarter of 2026, said Damas. 'The container shipping market is fundamentally in a cyclical downturn, with temporary rate spikes driven only by disruptive shocks rather than demand-side strength.' Beyond mainland China and Japan, Taiwan's Evergreen Marine and Yang Ming Marine Transport could see full-year earnings fall by more than half as trade uncertainties weigh. In Europe, AP Moller-Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are also expected to see a continued slowdown. US-China trade talks are progressing with US President Donald Trump set to make the final call on maintaining a tariff truce with China. Any deal that's more favourable than expected for China could yield greater upside for the country's liners, said BI's Loh. Diversification Even tariffs considered favourable could still weigh on rates and volumes, said Damas, noting the revised 15 per cent tariff on Japan is still higher than a year ago and is likely to reduce Japanese containerised exports to the US overall. 'For China, it is too early to say how adverse the impact of revised tariffs will be on container lines' according to Damas. 'There are signs that China exports to regions other than the US are growing fast.' China's trade surplus reached record levels in the first six months of the year, as the country sought to diversity exports away from the US and tapped South-east Asia. Somewhat shielded from tariff rumblings, more high-growth markets such as intra-Asia trade lanes are displacing the transpacific in terms of global importance amid such uncertainties, according to BI's Loh. Since this March, China-Asean export volumes are now double that of China-US, traditionally the most important route in container shipping. Drewry's Damas is also seeing container lines shift China-built ships from US-connected routes to non-US routes, likely to avoid levies due to be imposed by the US administration from October. 'We expect that container lines will cancel many more sailings, increase demolitions of ships and take other measures to manage over-supply in the second half of this year,' Damas said. BLOOMBERG
Irish Examiner
18-05-2025
- Business
- Irish Examiner
Tariff truce boosts global shipping firms
Importers rushing to ship Chinese goods to the US using a short reprieve from paralysing tariffs could provide a much-needed boost to global freighters. The surprise truce between the US and China, temporarily bringing down tariffs on each other's goods, will probably give way to a surge in transpacific shipping in the coming weeks, lifting earnings for Cosco Shipping Holdings, AP Moller-Maersk A/S, and Mitsui OSK Lines, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kenneth Loh. The US has reduced combined levies on most Chinese imports to 30% from 145% for a period of 90 days, while the 125% Chinese duties on US goods will drop to 10%. Danish shipping giant Maersk saw an increase in bookings in the hours after the trade deal was announced, a welcome reprieve after cutting its forecast earlier this month. Hapag-Lloyd, the world's number five container carrier, said it's handling a 'huge surge' in volumes this week. Volumes are up more than 50% compared with recent weeks, with bookings from China to the US particularly strong, chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. 'Good news' The trade agreement was 'good news,' Rodolphe Saadé, chief executive of privately-owned french shipping company CMA CGM SA, said in a hearing in the French Senate. He added that the world's third-largest container carrier had lost 50% of its volumes toward the US since the start of the trade war. 'We're likely to see a renewed front-loading surge as exporters and importers alike in China and the US attempt to capitalize on the steep cut in tariffs during this 90-day pause,' according to Mr Loh. This wave of pent-up demand is pushing up freight rates, which had been sliding since the beginning of the year, in turn boosting earnings for shipping companies. Peak season demand could be pushed even higher as the end of the 90-day reduction in tariffs between both countries will overlap with the sector's busiest period in mid-August, with China accounting for around 40% of US container imports, Citigroup Inc. analysts including Kaseedit Choonnawat said in a note. The cost for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 16% from the prior week to $3,136 (€2,802) the biggest gain in percentage terms since December, while the Shanghai-to-New York rate jumped 19% from the previous week to $4,350, according to the Drewry World Container Index. More ship calls amid the cargo rush from China threatens to cause port congestion and bottlenecks, similar to what happened during the covid pandemic, HSBC Holdings Plc analysts including Parash Jain wrote in a note. Chinese ports including China Merchants Port Holdings, Cosco Shipping Ports. and Shanghai International Port Group. could also win market share during the period, which could narrow the cost gap with rival export hubs and trade routes, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Denise Wong. 'The truce will also give Chinese exporters more time for workarounds, which can potentially help sustain volumes at Chinese ports.' The front-loading might lead to higher consensus estimates, though not necessarily a 'material increase' in second-quarter earnings for container liners, said Axel Styrman, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux. 'Our long term view on container shipping remains cautious as we think that there will be a significant oversupply in the industry,' Deutsche Bank AG analyst Andy Chu wrote in a note, raising his recommendations on Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to hold from sell. 'We do acknowledge that container shipping stocks are cyclical and momentum driven and that near-term demand on the China-US trade lane is set to rebound as inventory is replenished.' Still, the current rebound might be short-lived. 'The rate outlook for the second half of 2025 is weak with an expected significant downward adjustment in demand regardless of increased tariffs following expiration of the pause, and a potential reversal of the rerouting from the Red Sea via Cape of Good Hope which will amplify the downward correction,' Mr Styrman said. Bloomberg
Time of India
17-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Tariff truce spurs Pacific trade rush, boosting global shippers
Importers rushing to ship Chinese goods to the US using a short reprieve from paralysing tariffs could provide a much-needed boost to global freighters. The surprise truce between the US and China, temporarily bringing down tariffs on each other's goods, will probably give way to a surge in transpacific shipping in the coming weeks, lifting earnings for Cosco Shipping Holdings Co., A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, and Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd., said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kenneth Loh. The US has reduced combined levies on most Chinese imports to 30% from 145% for a period of 90 days, while the 125% Chinese duties on US goods will drop to 10%. Danish shipping giant Maersk saw an increase in bookings in the hours after the trade deal was announced, a welcome reprieve after cutting its forecast earlier this month. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Kulkas yang belum Terjual dengan Harga Termurah (Lihat harga) Cari Sekarang While escalating trade tensions darkened the sector's outlook earlier this year and caused US-bound shipments from China to drop by a fifth in April, things are looking up again. Hapag-Lloyd AG, the world's No. 5 container carrier, said it's handling a 'huge surge' in volumes this week. Volumes are up more than 50% compared with recent weeks, with bookings from China to the US particularly strong, Chief Executive Officer Rolf Habben Jansen said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Live Events Bloomberg The trade agreement was 'good news,' Rodolphe Saadé, CEO of privately-owned CMA CGM SA, said in a hearing in the French Senate on Monday. He added that the world's third-largest container carrier had lost 50% of its volumes toward the US since the start of the trade war. 'We're likely to see a renewed front-loading surge as exporters and importers alike in China and the US attempt to capitalise on the steep cut in tariffs during this 90-day pause,' according to BI's Loh. This wave of pent-up demand is pushing up freight rates, which had been sliding since the beginning of the year, in turn boosting earnings for shipping companies. Peak season demand could be pushed even higher as the end of the 90-day reduction in tariffs between both countries will overlap with the sector's busiest period in mid-August, with China accounting for around 40% of US container imports, Citigroup Inc. analysts including Kaseedit Choonnawat said in a note. The cost for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 16% from the prior week to $3,136, the biggest gain in percentage terms since December, while the Shanghai-to-New York rate jumped 19% from the previous week to $4,350, according to the Drewry World Container Index posted Thursday. Bloomberg More ship calls amid the cargo rush from China threatens to cause port congestion and bottlenecks, similar to what what happened during the Covid-19 pandemic, HSBC Holdings Plc analysts including Parash Jain wrote in a note. Chinese ports including China Merchants Port Holdings Co., Cosco Shipping Ports Ltd. and Shanghai International Port Group Co. could also win market share during the period, which could narrow the cost gap with rival export hubs and trade routes, said BI analyst Denise Wong. 'The truce will also give Chinese exporters more time for workarounds, which can potentially help sustain volumes at Chinese ports.' Oversupply Risk The front-loading might lead to higher consensus estimates, though not necessarily a 'material increase' in second-quarter earnings for container liners, said Axel Styrman, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux. 'Our long term view on container shipping remains cautious as we think that there will be a significant oversupply in the industry,' Deutsche Bank AG analyst Andy Chu wrote in a note, raising his recommendations on Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to hold from sell. 'We do acknowledge that container shipping stocks are cyclical and momentum driven and that near-term demand on the China-US trade lane is set to rebound as inventory is replenished.' Still, the current rebound might be short-lived. 'The rate outlook for the second half of 2025 is weak with an expected significant downward adjustment in demand regardless of increased tariffs following expiration of the pause, and a potential reversal of the rerouting from the Red Sea via Cape of Good Hope which will amplify the downward correction,' Styrman said.
Business Times
16-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Tariff truce spurs Pacific trade rush, boosting global shippers
[HONG KONG] Importers rushing to ship Chinese goods to the US using a short reprieve from paralysing tariffs could provide a much-needed boost to global freighters. The surprise truce between the US and China, temporarily bringing down tariffs on each other's goods, will probably give way to a surge in transpacific shipping in the coming weeks, lifting earnings for Cosco Shipping Holdings, AP Moller-Maersk A/S, and Mitsui OSK Lines, said Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) analyst Kenneth Loh. The US has reduced combined levies on most Chinese imports to 30 per cent from 145 per cent for a period of 90 days, while the 125 per cent Chinese duties on US goods will drop to 10 per cent. Danish shipping giant Maersk saw an increase in bookings in the hours after the trade deal was announced, a welcome reprieve after cutting its forecast earlier this month. While escalating trade tensions darkened the sector's outlook earlier this year and caused US-bound shipments from China to drop by a fifth in April, things are looking up again. Hapag-Lloyd, the world's No 5 container carrier, said it's handling a 'huge surge' in volumes this week. Volumes are up more than 50 per cent compared with recent weeks, with bookings from China to the US particularly strong, chief executive officer Rolf Habben Jansen said. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The trade agreement was 'good news,' Rodolphe Saade, CEO of privately-owned CMA CGM, said in a hearing in the French Senate on Monday (May 12). He added that the world's third-largest container carrier had lost 50 per cent of its volumes towards the US since the start of the trade war. 'We are likely to see a renewed front-loading surge as exporters and importers alike in China and the US attempt to capitalise on the steep cut in tariffs during this 90-day pause,' according to BI's Loh. This wave of pent-up demand is pushing up freight rates, which had been sliding since the beginning of the year, in turn boosting earnings for shipping companies. Peak season demand could be pushed even higher as the end of the 90-day reduction in tariffs between both countries will overlap with the sector's busiest period in mid-August, with China accounting for around 40 per cent of US container imports, Citigroup analysts including Kaseedit Choonnawat said in a note. The cost for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 16 per cent from the prior week to US$3,136, the biggest gain in percentage terms since December, while the Shanghai-to-New York rate jumped 19 per cent from the previous week to US$4,350, according to the Drewry World Container Index posted on Thursday. More ship calls amid the cargo rush from China threatens to cause port congestion and bottlenecks, similar to what happened during the Covid-19 pandemic, HSBC Holdings analysts including Parash Jain wrote in a note. Chinese ports including China Merchants Port Holdings, Cosco Shipping Ports and Shanghai International Port Group could also win market share during the period, which could narrow the cost gap with rival export hubs and trade routes, said BI analyst Denise Wong. 'The truce will also give Chinese exporters more time for workarounds, which can potentially help sustain volumes at Chinese ports.' Oversupply risk The front-loading might lead to higher consensus estimates, though not necessarily a 'material increase' in second-quarter earnings for container liners, said Axel Styrman, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux. 'Our long-term view on container shipping remains cautious as we think that there will be a significant oversupply in the industry,' Deutsche Bank analyst Andy Chu wrote in a note, raising his recommendations on Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to hold from sell. 'We do acknowledge that container shipping stocks are cyclical and momentum driven and that near-term demand on the China-US trade lane is set to rebound as inventory is replenished.' Still, the current rebound might be short-lived. 'The rate outlook for the second half of 2025 is weak with an expected significant downward adjustment in demand regardless of increased tariffs following expiration of the pause, and a potential reversal of the rerouting from the Red Sea via Cape of Good Hope which will amplify the downward correction,' Styrman said. BLOOMBERG
