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ABC News
18-07-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Tasmania's early election has arrived, here's everything you need to know
Polling booths are officially open for Tasmania's state election, barely a year after they closed last time. While many eligible Tasmanians have already voted, the majority will head along to a polling place today. Polling booths close at 6pm tonight. It is likely to take a while to confirm a final count. Here is everything you need to know about Tasmania's 2025 state election. Click here to see where all of the polling places are located across the state. Back to top Election Analyst Kevin Bonham said the count will be less complete tonight than last year's election night, because postals won't be counted tonight. That being said, Dr Bonham said we should have a "general idea of where things are headed". We'll be bringing you live updates and analysis on our ABC News live blog, on ABC TV and iview, and on ABC Radio Hobart and ABC Northern Tasmania. The ABC's Chief Elections and Data Analyst Casey Briggs will also provide comprehensive coverage as the election unfolds. Whatever time a result does come in, you'll hear it first from the ABC. Back to top You can use this tool on the TEC website to find out which electorate you reside in by entering your address. Back to top As of Thursday July 17 at 5:30pm, 114,688 of the 408,000 enrolled voters in Tasmania had voted early. Back to top The ABC asked the Liberals, Labor and the Greens to provide their promises to voters this election. The Liberals — led by Jeremy Rockliff — have promised a new state-owned insurance company, TasInsure. Labor has pledged to open 10 government-funded GP clinics, under a plan it calls TassieDoc. The Greens promises have included more teachers, more health spending, free public transport and putting a stop to "unreasonable" rent increases. The proposed Macquarie Point stadium in Hobart has the support of Labor and the Liberals, but is opposed by the Greens. Back to top YouGov's final public data poll on the Tasmanian state election, released on Friday night, found: The YouGov polling has also found the vote share for each party, compared to the 2024 election, is as follows: Back to top Over 160 candidates across the state have been nominated to contest the 2025 House of Assembly elections. That includes: Click here to see who the candidates are. Back to top All same-day votes are counted on Saturday, along with nine out of 15 pre-poll centres. The final six pre-poll centres are counted before 2pm Sunday, after which the count then pauses. This is to allow for checks to occur on postal votes, to ensure no one has voted twice. Postal votes are then counted from Thursday or Friday, until the next Tuesday, to allow time for all postal votes to arrive. And on that Tuesday, the preference distribution begins. Back to top Excited to snag a democracy sausage today? There's something you should know. Fundraising sausage sizzles, often run by volunteers, have been synonymous with Australian elections since the 1960s — when the portable barbecue rose to popularity in Australia. As well as being a tasty way to keep your hands busy while in line to fulfil your civic duty, buying a democracy sausage is a great way to support your local community group, church or school. According to the TEC's website, of the 256 polling places across the state, 115 are schools. That's almost half. And because schools are in the midst of term two holidays, many have reportedly struggled to get the volunteer numbers needed to put on a barbecue. So if you're at school today, and they went to the effort of wheeling out the portable barbecue, make sure to grab a snag or two. And if you really don't want to be left empty-handed, you can head to to find a sausage sizzle near you. Back to top
ABC News
18-07-2025
- Politics
- ABC News
Tasmanian election 2025: When will we know the result?
Tasmanian election day is here. A record number of people in the state have already voted early — over one-quarter of eligible Tasmanian voters. If you're eagerly awaiting an election outcome tonight, you might need to temper your expectations. Polls have consistently pointed to a likely hung parliament and a large crossbench, meaning a clear winner might not emerge right away. And then there's all the pre-polling votes to count. It all depends on how close the result is. If one of the major parties emerges with a clear majority of seats, then the ABC will be able to confidently call the winner. That magic number of seats for a majority government in Tasmania is 18. But based on primary voting intention polling, no party is likely to convert primary votes into majority government. But the expectation, according to polling released during the campaign, is the election will result in a hung parliament. Political analyst Kevin Bonham told ABC Radio Mornings the count will be less complete tonight than last year's election, because postal votes won't be counted on the night. But, he said we should have a good idea of where things are heading by the end of tonight. "We may well know the majority of seats, but then there may be more in doubt than last time," Dr Bonham said. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) says rechecks and further counting of first preferences will happen next week, while they wait for the arrival of final postal votes up until 10am on Tuesday 29 July. A full distribution of preferences then begins, which can take several days to complete. The first preferences will start to be counted as soon as polling closes, with the results expected to start coming in about 6:45pm tonight. The TEC runs the election and will call the winner. But it won't do that until the process of counting, rechecking and distributing preferences happens — and this can take weeks. So, the ABC uses a modelling system that is fed with TEC counting data to project a winner. On Friday afternoon, the TEC said it expects at least 130,000 people will have cast their vote early, either at a pre-poll centre, by postal vote or over the phone. Well over a quarter, and probably a third, who are early voters," TEC electoral commissioner Andrew Hawkey said. Last election, the number of people who voted early was just under 110,000. Because of that significant increase, only nine of the 15 pre-poll centres will start to be counted tonight. "What we're going to do is focus on getting the nine that we can get done, hopefully by the 11:00pm shut off," Mr Hawkey said. "Then the further six of them will be completed on the Sunday, hopefully by about 2:00pm. "Last year we had, well after midnight, four or five of our polls coming in." Mr Hawkey said postal vote counting won't begin until Thursday next week due to a new system where the TEC checks to make sure postal voters have not voted twice. The last Tasmanian election was on March 23, 2024. Premier Jeremy Rockliff called the snap election after two former-Liberals MPs, who moved to the crossbench to sit as independents the year before, threatened to pull confidence and supply. Mr Rockliff had hoped the election would restore his government back to a stable Liberal majority. This didn't happen. The Liberals won 14 seats, Labor won 10, the Greens claimed five, JLN won three, and three seats went to independent MPs. On the night, Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff claimed victory and said Tasmanians had sent a "clear message" about who they wanted to govern the state, despite a decline in the party's primary vote. Then-Labor leader Rebecca White refused to concede defeat on the night, and Tasmanians went to bed unsure who would govern in the coming weeks. The next day, Ms White declared Labor had lost the state election and wouldn't attempt to form government, leaving the door open for the Liberals to form minority government. At last year's election, it appeared early on that two independents would win seats — Kristie Johnston and David O'Byrne. But almost a fortnight later, independent candidate Craig Garland surprised everyone with an 11th hour win in Braddon. As preferences were distributed, he raced past the Greens because of Shooters, Farmers and Fishers party preferences, then past the Liberal's candidate Giovanna Simpson on Greens preferences. According to Dr Bonham, Mr Garland received the lowest primary vote that has resulted in a win for a lone independent ever. His victory complicated things for the Liberals in negotiating with the crossbench to form minority government.
The Guardian
23-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Bradfield goes to a recount after Liberal Gisele Kapterian leads Nicolette Boele by just eight votes
There will be a full recount in the Sydney seat of Bradfield, after the Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian led the independent Nicolette Boele by just eight votes at the end of the final distribution of preferences. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) immediately announced a recount, as is the longstanding practice in any seat when the final margin is 100 or fewer. The AEC said the recount would begin on Monday and might take up to two weeks. On Monday Boele had been declared the provisional winner of the seat at the end of the two-candidate-preferred count, with a margin of 40 votes. The full distribution of preferences then led to minor changes in the margin as votes were challenged by scrutineers. Boele's lead narrowed over several days until the two candidates were exactly tied late on Friday afternoon, before Kapterian nudged in front at about 5pm. If the margin were to remain below 10 votes after the recount – an extremely rare occurence – the AEC or one of the candidates could consider going to the court of disputed returns to 'void' the seat, which would trigger a full byelection. That hasn't happened since 1920 in the seat of Ballarat, when the two leading candidates were separated by a single vote at the previous year's federal election. One trigger for such an outcome could be if the number of unexplained multiple votes – suggesting someone may have voted more than once – could push the result one way or the other. The psephologist Kevin Bonham said at the 2019 election there was an average of about 15 unexplained multiple votes per electorate, but the numbers had been trending down in recent decades as the AEC developed ways to better control the issue. Bradfield was most recently held by the Liberal MP Paul Fletcher, elected in a byelection in 2009, who announced his retirement at the end of 2024. This is Boele's second run at the seat, as an independent backed by the Climate 200 group. Kapterian was preselected by the Liberals for the seat in January, beating Warren Mundine. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since its creation in 1949.
West Australian
01-05-2025
- Politics
- West Australian
Federal election 2025: The key seats that could decide the next government
This Saturday's election is shaping up to produce a mélange of results. All the polls say Labor is almost certain to retain Government, it will just be a matter of whether they cling on to majority, or fall short – and if so, by how much. Going into the election, Labor holds a notional 78 seats, the Coalition 57, the Greens 4, and the crossbench 11. The major parties need 76 of the 150 seats to form majority Government, but could govern with 75 by making a crossbencher the speaker. A handful of marginal seats could swap hands, while there are serious challenges to electorates with more sizeable buffers. The teal wave that swept through capital cities in 2022 could extend into the regions this time, while the Greens face tough competition in their three Queensland seats, and One Nation's vote is up across tehc ountry. Psephologist Kevin Bonham told The Nightly said there were about 50 seats to pay close attention to – including most marginal seats on either side. 'If the polls are right, the median result is Labor slightly increasing its majority. There could reasonably be anything from Labor falls into minority by a few through to something lopsided – anything within that range,' he said. 'For Labor to fall deeply into minority, something would be deeply wrong… But you can't be absolutely sure until you see what happens.' Liberal sources know there's a reality where they only win five or six seats come Saturday but are still hopeful a significant Labor backlash eventuates in the outer urban electorates. Labor MPs and staffers alike are still nervous, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is hopeful he doesn't just hold his majority, but increases it. 'We're aiming to hold every single one of them, and we're out there campaigning hard in Coalition-held seats and in Greens-held seats as well,' he said on Wednesday. Pollsters, strategists and party sources alike say there are very few guarantees in this election — Saturday will essentially be '150 byelections' but these are about 40 of the key ones to watch. Of the state's 38 seats, a handful could change hands on Saturday night. The unpopular state Government has been a drag on federal Labor's vote, but they're hopeful the outer-suburban wipeout the Coalition had been hoping for doesn't eventuate. The Liberals have made no secret of their aspiration to pinch Chisholm back from the Labor Party, while Aston — which was won by the Government in the 2023 byelection on a fluke — will inevitably change hands. 'We're not supposed to have it,' one Labor source said. McEwan , in the city's north, is held by Labor with 3.8 per cent. Dutton has now visited the seat three times this campaign and is firming up to be one of Labor's losses. Dunkley , in the city's east is another one of those outer-metropolitan/ peri urban seats where the cost-of-living factor could go against Labor's 6.8 per cent margin. The safe Labor seat of Gorton , held with 10 per cent, became the centre of a concerted Coalition advertising campaign mid-way through the campaign. Labor could suffer a significant swing here, but party insiders believe it will hold. They share the same view about Hawke (7.6 per cent), which Mr Dutton has now visited twice in five weeks to Mr Albanese's zero. Meanwhile in Bendigo , the Nationals are in with a strong chance of decimating Labor's 11.2 per cent margin to add it to its column. Labor is also fighting on its left flank, with the Greens running strong races in Wills and Macnamarra — where preference flows will be crucial. The minor party are most confident about knocking Wills MP Peter Khalil off. Labor could recover some of their losses by picking up Deakin , which is held by the Liberals on 0.02 per cent. Liberal sources believe they will pick up either Goldstein or Kooyong from the teal independents. Former MP Tim Wilson is running a strong campaign in the former, and Mr Dutton spent time with candidate Amelia Hammer in Kooyong this week to throw his support behind her. But the Coalition could lose Dan Tehan's regional seat of Wannon to Climate-200 backed candidate Alex Dyson. The Coalition is most confident of its chances in picking up the Labor-held seat of Gilmore , where former state MP Andrew Constance is again taking on Fiona Phillips' wafer thin 0.2 per cent margin. In Sydney, the redistribution has reverted Labor-held Bennelong - the seat of former PM John Howard - back to the Liberals. Mr Albanese visited the electorate on Monday to hand out how-to-vote cards with incumbent MP Jerome Laxale, and Labor sources acknowledge the seat will be a tough fight - but are hopeful it will hold. The Liberals have made some noise about Labor-held Reid, Parramatta , and Werriwa. Werriwa appears the most likely to change hands, if the outer-suburban swing away from Labor manifests, and dependent on how the third-party vote pans out. Out in the city's west, Labor is pouring resources into Fowler , where independent Dai Le won by 1.1 per cent in 2022 following a disastrous decision by Labor to parachute in senator Kristina Kenneally. This time, they've backed in Tu Le, and Mr Albanese received a warm reception during a streetwalk earlier this week. Both Mr Dutton and Mr Albanese stopped in the country's bellwether seat of Robertson on the same day this week. Both parties say they are confident in this central coast seat – but whatever happens here has for 15 elections been a reflection of the national mood. Bradfield , which has been a blue-ribbon seat since its creation in 1972, has captured some of the independent voters from the abolished electorate of North Sydney, and the Liberal's margin has been reduced to a narrow 2.5 per cent. With Paul Fletcher retiring, there's a strong belief well-financed independent Nicolette Boele could win the seat on her second tilt. Of the other blue-ribbon seats that went teal in 2022, Mackellar - held by Sophie Scamps - is discussed as the most likely to revert. In the regions, Calare will make for a fascinating watch where a three-way competition between the Nationals, party defector and incumbent Andrew Gee, and a Climate-200 backed independent. In Cowper , where independent Caz Jeise shaved off almost 10 per cent of Nationals MP Pat Conaghan's margin in 2022, Coalition sources acknowledge they face a serious threat. The Sunshine State offers Labor the most chances for gains. Greens-held Brisbane will be a three-way contest, and it could go to either Labor or the Liberal Party, depending on preferences. If Labor's Madonna Jarrett can finish second ahead of incumbent Stephen Bates, she can clinch the seat on preferences. The Coalition feels more confident in wresting Ryan back from the Greens. Griffith , Kevin Rudd's old seat, will be another fierce contest against Greens' MP Max Chandler-Mather. Mr Albanese visited the seat on Tuesday, and Labor sources acknowledge it will be difficult - less of a sure bet, but possible. The bayside seat of Bonner has been in Coalition hands since 2010, but as Labor has improved in national polling this electorate has emerged as a must-watch seat with Mr Albanese visiting the seat on Tuesday. In Leichhardt in the state's north, candidate Matt Smith has had plenty of frontbench support in the last five weeks and a strong advertising campaign behind him. Mr Dutton's seat of Dickson , which he holds with a slim 1.7 per cent margin, could provide a fascinating result. Labor's Ali France is running for a third time, and it was the first stop on Mr Albanese's campaign. The emergence of a Climate 200-backed candidate who hails from a Liberal-supporting part of the electorate has Mr Dutton vulnerable in his own backyard. Climate-200 independents are running strong in the regional electorate of Groom, which has emerged as a dark horse, as well as the Gold Coast seat of McPherson . While the Coalition has buffers of 6.9 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively, there's an outside chance of some movement. Four of the apple isle's five seats are under the spotlight this election. Labor believe they have a chance of flipping Bass and/ or Braddon , on margins of 1.4 per cent and eight per cent respectively. The Liberals have thrown a lot of resources at taking Lyons from Labor, with Mr Dutton making his fifth visit this campaign on Thursday. The safe Labor seat of Franklin , held by minister Julie Collins on 13.7 per cent, is on the wildcard list. Solidly Labor since 1993, the salmon farming issue has become potent in the electorate and independent Peter George, backed by Climate 200, has run a highly visible and well-funded campaign. Labor is in a good position to hold all nine of its seats in WA, including Tangney . The new electorate of Bullwinkel , which is notionally Labor, is favoured by the Liberals. The Liberals are confident the affluent blue-ribbon seat of Curtin , which went teal in 2022, will return to them. But they could lose the regional seat of Forrest , where Climate-200 backed Sue Chapman has run a strong campaign and could pinch the seat from the Liberals after 53 years. The suburban seat of Sturt is a three-cornered race, where Liberal MP James Stevens faces a tough battle against Labor and a new independent challenger. The Greens picked up 16 per cent of the vote last time, so any increase to that vote, as well as preference flows from the independent, could put this seat in Labor's hands. Labor could lose nearby Boothby , where former MP Nicolle Flint is taking on the Labor incumbent. Liberals are confident her name recognition will help them.
