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Irish Independent
3 days ago
- Business
- Irish Independent
Further growth in employment numbers predicted for 2025
The optimistic forecast is being made despite the recent uptick in the unemployment rate, and with the Central Statistics Office reporting a small decline in employee numbers in June. The monthly employee index for males decreased by 0.3pc, while for females it was down 0.2pc in the month. Based on age, the largest monthly decrease was in the 15- to 19-year-old category, which was down 2.6pc. Darragh Turner, a statistician in the labour market and earnings division of the CSO, said while two sectors had a monthly increase in numbers employed, and two were unchanged, 11 showed a decrease. 'The sector that observed the largest monthly fall was services, down 2.3pc, followed by agriculture, forestry and fishing, down 1.5pc,' he said, while pointing out that services is the smallest of the sectors, with 4,400 employees in June. According to the analysis by Davy, employment growth picked up 2.5pc in the second quarter from 2.3pc in Q1, with growth remaining stronger for higher wage sectors. 'With prior-year revisions to May and June factored in, we estimate that Q2 employee payrolls grew by 2.5pc in year-on-year terms,' said Kevin Timoney, an economist with Davy. 'This is up from 2.3pc in Q1 and is a remarkably strong result despite significantly elevated uncertainty in the first half of this year.' Davy's analysis of Irish payrolls data shows that February is typically the low point for employment each year, while there is a significant ramp-up in hiring between March and June. 'This makes sense from the perspective that seasonal labour demand for spring and summer workers is highest, and hiring is often necessary in advance of peak months for activity,' it said. 'With last year's revisions to June payrolls included, this suggests an uplift for March-June 2025 of 75,000 workers. The corresponding increases in 2023 and 2024 respectively were 69,000 and 72,000.' On this basis, Davy says the data suggests 2025 is on course to be another year of increased employment. High-skill sectors, those with above-average hourly wages, are continuing to drive the growth. 'For the first six months of 2025, the average growth rate for these sectors has exceeded growth for lower-pay sectors by 0.9 of a percentage point,' the Davy analysis says. 'By age group, it is interesting that Q2 saw an increase in year-on-year payrolls growth for young adults to 1.9pc, up from 1.3pc in Q1 and 1.2pc in Q2 2024. Other age groups saw broadly steady payroll growth rates relative to recent months.'
Irish Times
11-08-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
Jump in unemployment dismissed as ‘statistical noise' by Davy
The rise in Ireland's unemployment rate has been dismissed by Davy stockbrokers as 'statistical noise'. The stockbroker also insisted the economy remained close to full employment . The State's jobless rate climbed to 4.9 per cent in July, up from 4.6 per cent and the highest rate in more than three years, according to figures published last week by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The increase comes amid warnings about a potential slowdown triggered by US tariffs . READ MORE The upward revisions, flagged by the CSO, represent 'a mainly statistical aspect of the estimation process rather than providing any real-economy signal that Ireland's labour market conditions have worsened in 2025,' Davy chief economist Kevin Timoney said. He noted that the figures incorporated the latest Labour Force Survey, which has not yet been published, and included a new category of unemployment assistance (jobseekers' pay-related benefit) for the first time. 'Combined, these factors help to explain the higher unemployment rate estimate, and we expect this will unwind further into [the second half of the year],' Mr Timoney said. 'An alternative explanation is that high economic policy uncertainty in Ireland and abroad as a result of tariffs has resulted in an increase in the unemployment rate,' he said. 'However, we think the statistical factors noted above are more likely to explain the increase,' he added, noting that labour demand in the Irish economy remained strong. [ Unemployment climbs to highest rate in more than three years Opens in new window ] The State's jobless rate is now the highest rate in more than three years, according to Central Statistics Office figures. Photograph: Getty Images In its report, Davy also blamed softer-than-expected income tax receipts in the latest exchequer returns on 'slowing wage growth in high-earning sectors (which contribute the bulk of income tax receipts)'. The CSO will publish monthly payroll data on Friday. These are based on real-time Revenue data and are considered one of the more accurate barometers of the Irish labour market. Separately, European Central Bank officials are now expected to wait until December to deliver their next interest-rate cut in what is likely to be the final move in the cycle, according to a Bloomberg survey. Economists have pushed back expectations for another reduction in borrowing costs by three months, compared to a survey conducted in July. With the deposit rate then landing at 1.75 per cent, they see it remaining there for nine to 10 months before a pickup in demand will likely force them to reverse course. Waiting until the final meeting of 2025 would give ECB policymakers the luxury of more time to assess the impact of trade disruption caused by US President Donald Trump. By December, policymakers will have seen how the economy performed in the third quarter, offering a clearer picture of underlying momentum after distortions caused by attempts to front-run US tariffs earlier in the year. – additional reporting by Bloomberg
BreakingNews.ie
24-04-2025
- Business
- BreakingNews.ie
Current housing output means targets for 2025 unlikely to be met, chief economist says
The current housing output means that government targets for 2025 are unlikely to be met, chief economist Kevin Timoney has said. The number of homes completed in the first three months of the year increased by two per cent compared with the same period last year, new figures released on Thursday showed. Advertisement Completions data published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show there were 5,938 dwellings completed in January, February, and March in 2025. However, the Department of Housing released figures this week that confirmed the Government missed its new-build social housing target by 1,429 last year, or 15 per cent, having also missed it in previous years. As well as this, Central Bank has projected that the Government will miss its own housing targets by a wide margin for the next three years. Davy chief economist, Kevin Timoney, said: 'Despite growth in new apartments in Q1, house completions disappointed compared to our expectation of an increase, and our forecast of 42,000 units this year already looks unlikely to be met. Advertisement "Reforms remain necessary for housing delivery to ramp up, which is even more important as uncertainty due to tariffs slows Irish economic growth this year." Timoney said Davy's view remains that a weak level of housing output remains likely until major reforms are fully implemented with respect to rent controls, construction costs, and the planning process. "The stalled level of housing output far below what is needed should provide ample motivation for the new government to expedite these reforms. "Assuming these reforms take place, and priority is placed on addressing wider infrastructure challenges (especially with respect to water and electricity/grid constraints), a pathway to far higher housing delivery continues to be available.'
