2 days ago
Congrats, Idaho! Portland is the only city worse than Boise for this, study says
Watching my teenage sons and their friends play an impromptu game of 'Kick the Condom' along a downtown Portland sidewalk this spring, I was reminded of a fact that few Idahoans can deny.
Nothing terrifies Boise more than being compared to Rip City.
Ever since NPR's 'Here & Now' wondered 'Is Boise the next Portland?' in 2017, we developed a phobia. OK, even before that. And not just about Portland's goofy hipsters, jaw-dropping homeless problem or, um, randomly scattered prophylactics. (The ones we booted were still sealed in wrappers, at least.)
It's the scary housing situation — Idaho's elephant in the closet. Ours wears a construction hat and holds a jackhammer with his trunk.
So when I came across a new article from LendingTree titled, 'Portland, Ore., Has Worst Housing Crisis Outlook — Here's Why,' I was mortified, yet unsurprised, to find Boise excoriated right next to its Oregon big brother on the list of really-not-good places.
Portland is worst. Boise is second worst.
LendingTree, an online lending marketplace, took a handful of metrics and boiled them down to what most Treasure Valley residents inherently know. We've got a big-city housing predicament with nary a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.
Boise wages stink. Home prices are insane. And availability is flat-out cooked.
'The vacancy rates in Portland and Boise are less than half of those in many other big metros,' said Matt Schulz, chief consumer finance analyst for LendingTree. 'When that happens, prices rise, making things even more expensive. Unfortunately, this isn't likely to change in many of the most troubled metros because the data shows that insufficient building is being done.'
However, Boise actually is an exception.
'That's not the case in Boise,' Schulz continued in a prepared statement, 'where new permits are among the highest in the nation, but it's the case in Portland, Bridgeport (Connecticut) and other metros with similar rankings. That doesn't bode well for the near future.'
Portland's No. 1 spot on the Housing Crisis Wall of Shame mainly was due to the aforementioned scant available housing scenario and the wallet-melting prices. Portland has the fourth-lowest vacancy rate (4.76%) — and 13th-highest home value-to-income ratio (5.57). As the article explains, 'This means median home values are 5.57 times more than the median income; the higher the ratio, the higher the unaffordability. The median home value in Portland is $526,500, while the median household income is $94,573.'
Boise's home-to-value income ratio is about the same — 5.25. What really jumps out is the city's increase in home value-to-income ratio — fourth-fastest in the nation. It skyrocketed 7.12% from 2022 to 2023. In other words, those low-paying jobs aren't keeping up with those high-priced houses. 'A widening gap,' LendingTree explains, 'speaks to growing unaffordability.'
Boise also has the second-lowest vacancy rate (4.56%), according to LendingTree — even if Schulz thinks we should be encouraged by all the planned construction.
Northwest and West metros essentially owned the top of the housing crisis list. After Portland and Boise, the next four worst cities were Bridgeport (the exception), Spokane, Salt Lake City and Denver.
Want to know where to move?
'Southern metros account for all five with the best outlook,' LendingTree says. 'McAllen, Texas, leads, with the lowest home value-to-income ratio at just 2.37. The median home value is $124,000, while the median household income is $52,281.'
Can you even buy a Garden City trailer for $124,000?
Then again, who wants to live in Texas? (Apologies to my brother in Austin. I'd live there just for the breakfast tacos.)
Before we end this diatribe by proclaiming in unison that 'Portland sucks!' I will admit this. My kids and their friends had a ball visiting Oregon.
They checked out Portland State, Lewis & Clark College and other nearby universities. (I wanna go back to school and attend beautiful Oregon State!) They watched their parents down pints at McMenamins in downtown Portland. And they tolerated me loitering joyfully upstairs in the Rare Book Room at Powell's City of Books, the world's biggest independent bookstore.
I definitely like a few things about Portland. But I love a lot about Boise.
I just hope we all can afford to keep living here.
