Latest news with #KielInstitute
Telegraph
10-07-2025
- Automotive
- Telegraph
Europe's trade artery risks running dry in warning for the world
The village of Kaub lies on Germany's Rhine river, about 40 miles west of Frankfurt. It's a sleepy little place, home to barely 800 souls. But on its riverbank sits a squat, cream-coloured tower on which billions of euros depend. This tower, known as Pegel Kaub, looks like a cross between a lighthouse and a chateau turret. On its riverside facade is a large and incongruous digital display, which provides a real-time gauge of the Rhine's constantly varying water level. For the 7,000 barges that traverse the river, carting 200m tonnes of goods and fuel a year between Germany's industrial heartlands and the North Sea – this critical number signals whether it's safe to sail with a full load. If the level falls below about 80cm, waterway traffic starts grinding to a halt. This matters. During a severe spell of low water in November 2018, German factories' output plunged 1.5pc and took a 0.4pc chunk out of German GDP, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The country is at risk of a similar crunch today. Heatwaves and low rainfall, combined with a lack of snow melt on the Swiss alpine glaciers, have pushed water levels to unusual lows for this time of year. The level at Kaub this week is just over 1m, but last week dipped as low as 96cm. There was a spell in April when it veered below the 80cm threshold. The health of the Rhine matters beyond Germany's borders. German factories account for more than a quarter of Europe's industrial output and the Rhine is its artery – a ceaseless daily pulse of everything from oil and coal to chemicals, construction materials and car parts. The river flows downstream from Switzerland through France, Germany and the Netherlands, linking the Continent's industrial hinterland with the mega ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp. The freight volume is so large that it can't be readily shifted to road or rail.
Euractiv
10-07-2025
- Business
- Euractiv
Ukraine faces ‘difficult' summer as Western aid taps splutter
Military analysts warn Ukraine faces a 'difficult' summer on the battlefield, but Europe may be lacking new avenues to help close Kyiv's growing funding gap in the long-term. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine three and a half years ago, the EU has channelled nearly €160 billion to Kyiv, according to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker. That includes a €50 billion pot of grants and loans disbursed through 2027, and a $50 billion G7 loan package backed by Russian central bank assets frozen in Belgium. Moscow, meanwhile, has intensified air strikes on Ukrainian cities and ramped up efforts to seize territory. Its defence-industrial base continues to churn out materiel, buoyed by oil revenues and largely undeterred by Western sanctions. This week, Ukraine is seeking new lifelines at a Recovery Conference in Rome. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hopes to clinch agreements on energy cooperation and attract fresh investment into Ukraine's defence industry, according to people familiar with Kyiv's planning. But Western allies concede their other avenues for support are limited, particularly with US funding unlikely to return to Biden-era levels. Europe is 'assessing and working on different options' to support Ukraine beyond 2025, including a potential €100 billion pot in the next EU budget, Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said this week. But on that, there remains no clear route around the Hungarian veto. A meeting of the coalition of 31 Western countries working towards security guarantees for Ukraine – to be chaired by Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer on Thursday – is also unlikely to yield the meaningful progress that Kyiv needs to try and end the war. The resulting picture, a senior NATO official said, is bleak. 'Ukraine continues to show a lot of innovative spirit,' they said. 'But we are in for a stressful and difficult summer.' Trump's flip-flopping Central to the Rome conference is the question of Ukraine's reconstruction, which the World Bank estimates will cost $524 billion over the next decade, equivalent to nearly three times Ukraine's projected GDP for 2024. Among Kyiv's "innovative" attempts to secure financing is its leveraging of its mineral reserves, with western firms eyeing access in exchange for cash. But persuading investors to move into the Ukrainian market remains tough while the war shows no sign of ending. 'It still seems that the reconstruction community and those working on defence and security remain largely separate worlds, with little interaction despite the obvious interdependence,' said Lesia Ogryzko, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). The scale of the funding challenge underscores the importance of US support – but recent weeks have seen Donald Trump oscillating even more than usual. Last week, the Pentagon abruptly halted a shipment of weapons to Ukraine – only for Trump to reverse the decision days later, reportedly considering sending additional Patriot missile systems. Then, in an uncharacteristically direct rebuke of the Russian president, Trump said during a cabinet meeting this week that 'we get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin,' and that while he could be 'nice,' his promises were often meaningless. But despite the US flip-flopping, public opinion across Europe remains resolutely in Ukraine's corner. According to recent ECFR polling, majorities or pluralities in eleven of twelve surveyed European countries oppose withdrawing military support, urging Ukraine to cede occupied territories, or lifting sanctions – even if the US were to do so. Support for continued military assistance remains strongest in Denmark (78%), Portugal (74%), the United Kingdom (73%), and Estonia (68%). (om)
MTV Lebanon
08-07-2025
- Business
- MTV Lebanon
Rome to host Ukraine recovery conference as US support falters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky heads to Rome this week for a conference of world leaders and businesses aimed at boosting support for rebuilding his war-torn country as US military aid stalls. The Ukraine Recovery Conference takes place in the Italian capital on Thursday and Friday, with the goal of mobilising investments -- notably private sector funds -- for Kyiv as it faces its fourth year of conflict. The meeting, which will also be attended by EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz among 15 heads of state and government, will focus on Ukraine's long-term recovery. Ukraine hopes to sign agreements on energy, with its power grid regularly hit by Russian strikes, as well as cooperation in the defence industry. But Zelensky -- who will fly in on Wednesday to meet Italy's head of state, President Sergio Mattarella -- stressed his country's urgent need remained defending itself against intensifying Russian missile and drone attacks. "Ukrainian representatives will have a concrete set of tasks focused on immediate defence -- the defence of our cities and our communities," he said in an address on Monday night. Zelensky will open the conference -- an annual event since Russia's February 2022 invasion -- on Thursday morning with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Italian officials said. The United States, formerly Ukraine's biggest backer, will be represented by President Donald Trump's envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg. Trump criticised the tens of billions of dollars in support and weapons sent to Kyiv under the Biden administration, and has announced no new military aid packages since taking office in January. But the president on Monday said the United States would send additional weapons to Ukraine, a few days after announcing he was halting some weapons shipments. A long time Donations of military, financial and humanitarian aid from European countries have so far filled the gap left by the US withdrawal, according to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker. But whether European countries can sustain that level of support in the long run remains to be seen. "There is understanding that the war might continue for a long time," noted analyst Tymofiy Mylovanov, head of the Kyiv School of Economics. At the same time, Ukraine is contending with "how difficult it is to secure support from the EU and from the United States in particular", he said. The World Bank estimates that the reconstruction and recovery will cost $524 billion over the next decade, approximately 2.8 times the estimated nominal GDP of Ukraine for 2024. That recovery will be "difficult to achieve" without private investors, the Italian government said. More than 2,000 companies -- around 500 of them Italian -- are due to attend the Rome conference, as well as members of civil society. But convincing investors remains a challenge for Ukraine as the war grinds on, with talks pushed by Washington so far making no progress. "The recovery of our state is a real, daily process that continues despite constant shelling from Russia," Oleksii Kuleba, minister for the recovery of Ukraine, insisted in a statement to AFP. "We will present specific achievements, examples of effective cooperation, and new projects that investors can join today," he said. The Trump administration has adopted a more transactional approach to its Ukraine support. Washington and Kyiv in April signed a landmark minerals deal that will see them jointly develop Ukraine's natural resources, with some revenues going to a joint recovery fund for the war-torn country. As well as investments, the Rome conference will address Ukraine's hopes of joining the European Union and, after years in which many Ukrainians were called up to fight or fled, the question of human capital.
Int'l Business Times
08-07-2025
- Business
- Int'l Business Times
Rome To Host Ukraine Recovery Conference As US Support Falters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky heads to Rome this week for a conference of world leaders and businesses aimed at boosting support for rebuilding his war-torn country as US military aid stalls. The Ukraine Recovery Conference takes place in the Italian capital on Thursday and Friday, with the goal of mobilising investments -- notably private sector funds -- for Kyiv as it faces its fourth year of conflict. The meeting, which will also be attended by EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz among 15 heads of state and government, will focus on Ukraine's long-term recovery. Ukraine hopes to sign agreements on energy, with its power grid regularly hit by Russian strikes, as well as cooperation in the defence industry. But Zelensky -- who will fly in on Wednesday to meet Italy's head of state, President Sergio Mattarella -- stressed his country's urgent need remained defending itself against intensifying Russian missile and drone attacks. "Ukrainian representatives will have a concrete set of tasks focused on immediate defence -- the defence of our cities and our communities," he said in an address on Monday night. Zelensky will open the conference -- an annual event since Russia's February 2022 invasion -- on Thursday morning with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Italian officials said. The United States, formerly Ukraine's biggest backer, will be represented by President Donald Trump's envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg. Trump criticised the tens of billions of dollars in support and weapons sent to Kyiv under the Biden administration, and has announced no new military aid packages since taking office in January. But the president on Monday said the United States would send additional weapons to Ukraine, a few days after announcing he was halting some weapons shipments. Donations of military, financial and humanitarian aid from European countries have so far filled the gap left by the US withdrawal, according to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker. But whether European countries can sustain that level of support in the long run remains to be seen. "There is understanding that the war might continue for a long time," noted analyst Tymofiy Mylovanov, head of the Kyiv School of Economics. At the same time, Ukraine is contending with "how difficult it is to secure support from the EU and from the United States in particular", he said. The World Bank estimates that the reconstruction and recovery will cost $524 billion over the next decade, approximately 2.8 times the estimated nominal GDP of Ukraine for 2024. That recovery will be "difficult to achieve" without private investors, the Italian government said. More than 2,000 companies -- around 500 of them Italian -- are due to attend the Rome conference, as well as members of civil society. But convincing investors remains a challenge for Ukraine as the war grinds on, with talks pushed by Washington so far making no progress. "The recovery of our state is a real, daily process that continues despite constant shelling from Russia," Oleksii Kuleba, minister for the recovery of Ukraine, insisted in a statement to AFP. "We will present specific achievements, examples of effective cooperation, and new projects that investors can join today," he said. The Trump administration has adopted a more transactional approach to its Ukraine support. Washington and Kyiv in April signed a landmark minerals deal that will see them jointly develop Ukraine's natural resources, with some revenues going to a joint recovery fund for the war-torn country. As well as investments, the Rome conference will address Ukraine's hopes of joining the European Union and, after years in which many Ukrainians were called up to fight or fled, the question of human capital.
Russia Today
05-07-2025
- Business
- Russia Today
German MPs demand more money for Ukraine
A group of German lawmakers from the Green Party has called on Chancellor Friedrich Merz to urgently increase military aid to Ukraine, warning that the current level of funding is insufficient in light of a slowdown in US arms deliveries, according to a letter obtained by Bild. The letter, signed by Bundestag deputies Robin Wagener, Sara Nanni, Sebastian Schafer and Anton Hofreiter, criticized the federal government's recently announced increase in military assistance from €7.1 billion to €8.3 billion. The lawmakers pointed to the US decision to pause certain weapons shipments to Kiev as a critical factor, arguing that Berlin should raise the figure to at least €8.5 billion and commit to maintaining that level through 2029. The Green MPs, who have been among Kiev's most vocal supporters in the Bundestag, reportedly said the government still had room to maneuver within the approved budget framework and argued that Germany's constitutional limits on debt spending could be sidestepped through special exemptions. Berlin has already sent Kiev almost €16 billion, including €11.2 billion in direct weapons supplies since the escalation of the conflict in 2022, making it the largest single state donor after the US and UK, according to Germany's Kiel Institute. The US reportedly paused deliveries of various critical munitions, including Patriot and Hellfire missiles, GMLRS rockets and 155mm artillery shells, under the Trump administration's 'America First' policy. The exact scale of the winddown remains unclear, as President Trump has insisted the US is still 'sending arms' to Kiev – while ensuring America retains enough stockpiles to defend itself and its allies. Chancellor Merz recently announced plans to increase Germany's overall military budget to €153 billion by 2029, up from €86 billion this year, and pledged to allocate 3.5% of GDP to defense under a new NATO framework to counter what he called a direct threat from Russia. The Kremlin has condemned the EU's militarization efforts and arms transfers to Kiev, describing the conflict as a NATO-led proxy war. President Vladimir Putin has dismissed Western concerns about Russian aggression as 'nonsense,' accusing NATO of using fear to justify ballooning military budgets and blaming the bloc's expansion and 'aggressive behavior' for fueling the crisis. Critics of Germany's government policy warn that continued arms spending could strain the national budget and further damage German industry, already suffering from rising energy costs, fallout from anti-Russia sanctions and the ongoing tariff standoff with the US. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party – which came second in the February elections but was excluded from forming a coalition – has called for an immediate halt to weapons shipments to Kiev and a resumption of energy cooperation with Moscow. On Friday, party leaders urged Merz to initiate direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and pursue a negotiated settlement to the conflict to safeguard Germany's long-term national interests. The Kremlin has stated that it remains open to dialogue with Berlin, but stressed that it is up to the German leadership to take the first step, having previously cut ties. Earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron – who had previously supported deploying French troops to Ukraine but recently softened his stance – held a phone call with Putin, their first direct contact in nearly three years.
