Latest news with #Klotzbach
Yahoo
19-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
What is a tropical wave and why is National Hurricane Center watching it?
The National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic. Elsewhere, the quiet continues in the tropics, with no activity expected over the next seven days. ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The quiet is fairly unusual, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. "Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he posted on X. By this time in May, an average of 3.5 storms typically would have formed, Klotzbach said. ➤ Track all active storms The first named storm of the 2025 season will be Andrea. Here's the National Hurricane Center's daily outlook as of 8 a.m., May 19. The National Hurricane Center said there are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin and no tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days. Forecasters did note the presence of a tropical wave moving away from the western coast of Africa at 6 to 11 mph. The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. NOAA changed its naming convention for the Gulf of Mexico after the U.S. Geological Survey changed the name on U.S. maps per President Trump's order. Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared. ➤ Creating hurricane supplies kit important, but what if money is tight? Tips, resources to help A tropical wave is a system of low pressure that moves westward across the tropics. Waves can lead to the formation of tropical cyclones, under the right conditions, according to the National Weather Service. The majority of tropical cyclones develop out of tropical waves, which also are called easterly waves, according to NOAA. Factors that limit the formation of tropical cyclones include wind shear and Saharan dust. There have been zero named storms in the Northern Hemisphere so far in 2025, Klotzbach said. "Five other years since 1950 have had zero Northern Hemisphere named storms through May 15: 1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024," he posted on X. "So, the western North Pacific tends to be the primary contributor to named storm activity this time of year," Klotzbach told USA TODAY. The quiet in the western Pacific is due to unusual wind patterns near the Philippines. "This wind pattern creates anti-cyclonic flow, which is not supportive for storm formations," he said. Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1. Eleven of those storms formed in May. There have even been occasions when a tropical cyclone has formed in January. Here's a look back at a few of the early storms: Jan. 16-17, 2023: Unnamed subtropical storm. May 22-23, 2021: Tropical Storm Ana. May 16-19, 2020: Tropical Storm Arthur. May 27-28, 2020: Tropical Storm Bertha. May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea. May 25-31, 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto. April 19-21, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene. Jan. 12-15, 2016: Hurricane Alex May 27-June 4, 2016: Tropical Storm Bonnie May 8-11, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana. May 19-22, 2012: Tropical Storm Alberto. May 26-30, 2012: Tropical Storm Beryl. May 31-June 1, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur. May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea. April 20-24, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana. The first named storm of the 2025 hurricane season will be Andrea. Since 2003, Andrea has appeared twice in May, including the last year the name appeared in 2019. May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea The World Meteorological Committee maintains six lists of hurricane names in the Atlantic basin and separate lists for the Pacific basin. There are 21 names on each list. The six lists of names are used on a rotating basis, so names from the list used in 2025 will appear again in 2031, unless a name is retired. A nation hit hardest by a devastating storm can request its name be removed because use of the name again would be insensitive. Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired from the list used last year and were replaced with Brianna, Holly, Miguel Tropical outlooks are issued every day by the National Hurricane Center from May 15 through Nov. 30. The outlooks come out at 8 a.m., 2 p.m., 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. ET. ➤ Where can I find Hurricane Center's tropical outlooks? ➤ Where will Hurricane Center issue advisories? A map highlights "significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next seven days," said Larry Kelly, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, in an email. Contained in the outlook are the probabilities an area could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and seven days: A low probability of development ranges from 0-30% (designated in yellow) A medium probability of development ranges from 40-60% (designated in orange) A high probability of development ranges from 70-100% (designated in red) "The hatched areas on the graphic represent the potential formation area during the forecast period. It is important to note that it is not a forecast track and just a formation area," Kelly said. ➤ In a rush? 15 things you should know before 2025 hurricane season arrives "The tropical weather outlook provides forecasts on areas of disturbed weather that could develop into tropical cyclones," Kelly said. "It highlights the location, movement, and development potential of these systems over the next two to seven days. "This information is important for early preparation and awareness during hurricane season so you can be prepared for the hazards that systems can bring, including storm surge, flooding, strong winds, tornadoes and hazardous marine and beach conditions." Although many people search Google for an answer to the question "When is Florida hurricane season," there actually is no such thing. The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said, so storms can form before and after those dates. Tropical storms and hurricanes that develop in the Atlantic basin do impact the U.S., from the Gulf Coast and Florida north into Canada. The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. Predictions released as of May 13 predict an above-normal number of named tropical systems, ranging from: Named storms: 13-21 Hurricanes: 7-10 Major hurricanes: 3-5 ➤ Florida is No. 1. That's not good when it comes to hurricane season predictions. See forecast Named storms: 14 Hurricanes: 7 Major hurricanes: 3 The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA said. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will provided tropical weather coverage daily until Nov. 30 to keep you informed and prepared. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. Contributing: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY (This story was updated to add new information and photos.) This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: NHC tracking tropical wave in Atlantic. What's its storm potential?
USA Today
17-05-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
Forecasters note an unusual pattern ahead of hurricane season
AI-assisted summary No Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones have formed in 2025 as of May 16, a phenomenon only seen five other times since 1950. Unusual wind patterns near the Philippines are suppressing storm formation in the western North Pacific. In contrast, the Southern Hemisphere has experienced a busier-than-average storm season. An unusual pattern has emerged ahead of Atlantic hurricane season: No tropical cyclones have formed anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere in 2025 as of May 16. This includes all tropical storms, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones north of the equator in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. The dry spell is not unprecedented — in fact, something similar happened last year ahead of a devastating hurricane season in the United States. The slow start has been matched 5 other times (1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024) in the last 75 years, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. Most of those years ended with below-average seasons for the Northern Hemisphere overall. On average, he said 3.5 storms typically would have formed by now. Is this quiet stretch unusual? Typically the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and North Indian Ocean are pretty quiet through mid-May, Klotzbach said. "So, the western North Pacific tends to be the primary contributor to named storm activity this time of year," he told USA TODAY. The quiet in the western Pacific is due to unusual wind patterns near the Philippines. "This wind pattern creates anti-cyclonic flow, which is not supportive for storm formations," he said. Does this mean anything for the rest of the season? Klotzbach said that's hard to say. "For example, the average number of Northern Hemisphere named storms in a season is 62. Here are the final Northern Hemisphere named storm totals for the other years that had no named storms through May 16: 1973 - 45 1983 - 51 1984 - 65 1998 - 53 2024 - 58 "4 of the 5 years ended up with below-average Northern Hemisphere named storms, but 2024 was just slightly below normal," he said. 1973 was an unusually quiet year for storms in the Northern Hemisphere. That year set a record for the latest first storm, Klotzbach said: Ava formed in the eastern North Pacific on June 2 that year. What about Southern Hemisphere storms? Unlike the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere has been quite busy during the 2024-25 season (July 1, 2024 - present). Southern Hemisphere storms include those that threaten locations such as Australia. He said 31 Southern Hemisphere named storms have formed so far, while the average is 25 named storms through May 16. What's the forecast for the rest of May? Meteorologist Ryan Maue, also on X, said that while an early season tropical storm is possible in the Eastern Pacific through the end of May, top weather models show a quiet pattern for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (renamed the Gulf of America by the U.S. government).
Yahoo
16-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
When does hurricane season start? Could Tennessee see another storm like Helene in 2025? See the outlook
It's nearly hurricane season once again. Florida and the Caribbean are often battered with hurricanes, tropical storms and tropical depressions. It's much rarer, but not impossible, that named storms continue inward to impact Tennessee. Last September, Hurricane Helene ravaged East Tennessee. The storm caused record-breaking floods, unimaginable infrastructure damage and the loss of 18 lives in the Volunteer State alone. Are storms like Helene becoming the new normal in Tennessee? What kind of storms will the 2025 hurricane season bring? Here's what to know. Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June 1 through November 30, according to the National Hurricane Center. Ahead of the official start of the season, the National Hurricane Center began releasing daily forecasts of hurricane activity May 15. The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be more active than previous years, according to Colorado State University predictions. The research team forecasts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991–2020. The 2024 season was about 130% of the season average. "So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017,' said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. Klotzbach is the lead author of the university's Atlantic Ocean hurricane season prediction report. Here's what the Colorado State University research team found. Colorado State University forecasts there could be 17 named storms in 2025, about three more than the average year. There could be nine hurricanes in the 2025 season, according to the report. The yearly average is 7.2 hurricanes. Of the nine hurricanes, four could be major hurricanes, according to the research. That's just above the average of 3.2. The National Hurricane Center is expected to release its hurricane season predictions on Thursday, May 22. There is a 21% chance for another tropical storm to reach Tennessee in 2025, according to Colorado State University research. The probability of a tropical storm in Tennessee this season is slightly greater than the 141-year historical average of 17%, according to Klotzbach. There have been 26 tropical storms within 50 miles of the Volunteer State from 1880-2020. Compared to other states in the southeast, the chances of tropical storms hitting The Volunteer State appear especially slim. Florida has a 92% chance of seeing a named storm in 2025 and a 35% chance of seeing a major hurricane. Tennessee's neighbors to the south, Alabama and Georgia, have a 72% and 67% chance respectively of being hit by a named storm this season, according to Colorado State University research. It's far-fetched to believe that tropical storms could become typical in the Volunteer State but the probability of more intense storms in the Gulf has grown, meaning its more possible storms could reach Tennessee. "We have observed more rapid intensification near landfall in recent years, which could indicate increased possibilities of significant wind impacts farther inland," Klotzbach said. "However, it's a bit too early to jump to conclusions on that front." Hurricane Helene formed in the Gulf of Mexico, now the Gulf of America in September 2024. The storm first made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Sept. 26 as a Category 4 Hurricane. The hurricane battered Perry, Florida, first before continuing north. Helene moved inland through Georgia and the Carolinas, then made its way to East Tennessee on Friday, Sept. 27. At that point, Helene was downgraded to a tropical storm. The East Tennessee and Western North Carolina region, already saturated by days of rain, saw major flooding on Sept. 27. The recovery process from those floods is still not over in East Tennessee. Bertha? Sebastien? Who chooses these names? Developing storms that reach the tropical storm classification get a name from a predetermined list developed by the National Hurricane Center and the World Meteorological Organization. There are six lists of names for storms for each basin, which are rotated on a six-year basis. So, storms in 2020 and 2026 may bear the same names. The only time names may be removed or replaced on the list is if the storm were so deadly that it would be insensitive to reuse, according to the National Hurricane Center. For example, the names "Helene" and "Beryl" will never be given to another storm. Here's the 2025 list of Atlantic Ocean storm names, according to the National Hurricane Center. Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Hurricane season: Could Tennessee see a storm like Helene in 2025?
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane season is near. Could we see tropical storms swirling in May?
May is almost here. Does that mean tropical storms and hurricanes are also on the way? Although the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season isn't until June 1, tropical storms and hurricanes do sometimes form in May. In fact, since records began in 1851, 32 named storms have formed in May, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. And many of those storms have formed recently: "We did have a flurry of May storms from 2007-2021, with 11 named storms forming during May during that 15-year period," he told USA TODAY. However, over the past three years, "we haven't had any May storm formations," he said. Study said season is shifting earlier A study in 2022 co-authored by Klotzbach found that the Atlantic hurricane season was indeed shifting earlier. "This was likely due to the considerable warming of oceans that we have observed in the western Atlantic during April-May in recent years," he said. While there haven't been any formations in May since 2021, there were storm formations during the first week of June in both 2022 and 2023. Oddly enough, despite the record heat across most of the Atlantic last year in May/June, we didn't get our first storm formation until Tropical Storm Alberto on June 19, Klotzbach said. "It is important to note that while we have had a trend toward more early season storms, these storms have generally been weak. We haven't had a hurricane in May since Alma in 1970." As for where storms usually form in May, WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut told USA TODAY that early season threats, while historically uncommon, have tended to be focused on the eastern Gulf or southeastern U.S. coasts. "All of these events happened on or after May 10, with four of them happening in the 2012-2020 timeframe," he said. Hurricane Florence can be seen barreling toward the East Coast in this satellite image from 2018, followed by another tropical storm and a hurricane. Hurricane season starts June 1, but storms sometimes form in May. Should the hurricane season start earlier? In 2021, the National Weather Service assembled a team to study the dates of the Atlantic hurricane season, along with "an examination of ... moving the beginning of hurricane season to May 15," Maria Torres of the National Hurricane Center told USA TODAY. "The team determined that the current range of dates of the hurricane season (June 1 through Nov. 30) already covers 96% of tropical cyclone activity, and moving the start date two weeks earlier would only add an additional 1% of activity," she said. Based on those statistics, the World Meteorological Organization, which oversees such things, "is not actively pursuing the modification of the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season," Torres said this week. What does this May look like for storms? At this point, there aren't any model signals for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic in the next two weeks, Klotzbach said April 22. "Beyond that time, we just don't have the model skill to anticipate May development." WeatherTiger's Truchelut agreed: "With the historical threat (such as it is) more than two weeks away, there's no day-to-day forecast skill to say anything about pre-season potential tropical activity at this lead time." This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season is coming. Could storms start forming in May?
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Hurricane season forecast complication: The Atlantic has cooled
Hurricanes thrive on warm seawater, and meteorologists say cooler spring temperatures in the ocean where storms often form could mean we're in for a less punishing hurricane season. Meteorologists keeping a close watch on ocean temperatures in the Atlantic say it isn't as hot as it's been in recent years: "A large patch of the eastern Atlantic Ocean isn't quite keeping up to the typical rate of warming for this time of year and that has experts questioning what, if any, impacts there might be this hurricane season," said meteorologist Jonathan Belles in an online forecast. Another expert, Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY that "Tropical sea-surface temperatures are thankfully much cooler than they were last year at this time." How much cooler is the Atlantic? In fact, on average, sea-surface temperatures are almost 2 degrees cooler than this time in 2024, he said. That may not sound like much, but in the world of meteorology, it's a significant difference that can affect hurricane formation. "That's obviously good news for Atlantic hurricane potential, but overall, sea-surface temperatures are still a bit above normal overall," Klotzbach said. What about location? Klotzbach said ocean temperatures are a bit warmer than normal in the Caribbean Sea and eastern subtropical Atlantic and a bit cooler than normal in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Overall, though, "thankfully, sea-surface temperature anomalies are WAY cooler than they were last year at this time. They were downright scary in late April of 2024." The preseason predictions in 2024 called for a hyperactive season with dozens of storms possible. While the season finished above average, it wasn't quite as active as had been foreseen, with a total of 18 storms. This is because other factors also influence hurricane formation, such as dry air or dust in the atmosphere, the presence of El Niño or La Niña, along with long periods of sinking air or strong wind shear, Belles said. All of these "can change the path that hurricane season takes each year," he said. What does this year's forecast say? Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1. According to the most recent forecast from Colorado State University released in early April, another active season is likely with as many as 17 storms expected. Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast that nine will become hurricanes. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven of them spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records from 1991 to 2020. Colorado State will provide an updated forecast in early June. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast comes out later in May. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season forecast complication: The ocean has cooled
