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USA Today
6 days ago
- Climate
- USA Today
See why the 2025 hurricane season is off to a slow start — how long will it stay quiet?
The hurricane season has gotten off to a slow start, but this doesn't always mean the hurricane season will be less dangerous overall. The 2025 season is still expected to have 13 to 19 named storms, and six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency's website underscores the importance of being prepared regardless of the hurricane season forecast. When do hurricanes typically form? The official Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30, according to the NOAA. The agency's website shows that 97% of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time, and August, September and October see the majority of storms that result in major damage in the United States. More: National Hurricane Center watching another potential storm off Southeast coast Unable to view our graphics? Click here to see them. Since 1851, only 7% of tropical storms in the Atlantic have come in July. According to the NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, that is insignificant compared with the percentage of named storms that have formed through the busiest hurricane season months of August (22%), September (35%) and October (21%). In other words, on average, one named storm forms in July on an annual basis, according to The Weather Channel. How many storms reach land each year? Over the past 30 years, from 1991 to 2020, an average of 14 storms each year developed, with three reaching at least Category 3 wind intensity and seven turning into hurricanes. According to NOAA statistics, one to two of those hurricanes typically reach land in the United States, according to the Weather Channel. The number of storms that make landfall varies considerably each year, according to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. Here's a look at storms that have made landfall since 2020: It's important to remember that hurricane activity can fluctuate year to year, and even a slightly above-average season can lead to significant effects on coastal regions, according to Colorado State University experts on seasonal hurricane forecasts. On average, the first Atlantic named storm forms on June 20, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the atmospheric science department at Colorado State University. Klotzbach is among the seasonal hurricane outlook experts who predicted a busier-than-average season. Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the season, formed in the Central Atlantic on June 20 but lasted only 12 hours. Historically, July is a quieter month for hurricanes because it's fairly early in the season, but that's not always the case: 2024's Category 5 Hurricane Beryl showed us that there can be significant impact from July storms. What's causing the lull in named storms? These conditions are the main causes of a slow start for the Atlantic hurricane season, according to Accuweather: Scientists from Colorado State University recently released an updated forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season on July 9, and there is a morsel of good news: "We have decreased our forecast slightly," meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said. Instead of nine hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin in 2025, the new forecast calls for eight. An average season sees seven. More: Storm Tracker: National Hurricane Center watching disturbance in Atlantic SOURCES National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Prediction Center, The Weather Channel, Accuweather and USA TODAY research CONTRIBUTING Gabe Hauari, Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice/USA TODAY
USA Today
13-07-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
Tropical trouble could be brewing around Florida, hurricane forecasters say
A broad area of low pressure could develop offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Regardless of development, the area of disturbed weather is expected to be a rainmaker in the region. USA TODAY Another potential tropical disturbance popped up on the National Hurricane Center's tracking chart on Saturday, July 12. For those who watch every potential storm closely, this initial map looks a lot like the first one that popped up for Tropical Storm Chantal. The possible development area swoops from the Atlantic to the Gulf across much of Florida, but this time the system is moving toward the Gulf, and the advisory includes the southern shores of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. A broad area of low pressure could develop sometime within the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast, the hurricane center said on the afternoon of July 12. Environmental conditions could become "marginally conducive" for the gradual development of a system within five to seven days as it moves westward across Florida. The chances of development are low, only 20%. If for some reason, a tropical storm does develop, the next name on the list this season is Dexter. "Should development take place on the Atlantic side of Florida, it may once again drift northward toward the U.S. coast," Accuweather said on July 11. The more plausible option is development on the Gulf side, which could be steered westward along the northern Gulf Coast, the weather forecast company stated. Regardless of development, the area of disturbed weather is expected to be a rainmaker in the region. Heavy rain is possible over parts of Florida and the Southeast coast through mid-to-late week, the center stated in the July 12 advisory. Tropical weather watchers say windshear over the Caribbean and dry air and Saharan dust over the Atlantic have helped keep this hurricane season from getting too busy so far. Still Chantal's development put the 2025 hurricane season about a month ahead of schedule. Typically the third Atlantic named storm doesn't form until August 3, according to Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, who leads its seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season each year. The season was forecast to see above normal activity, however the latest forecast from Klotzbach and his team slightly reduced the number of possible storms. What happened to Tropical Storm Chantal? Chantal formed off the Southeast U.S. coast on July 4, then moved over the Carolinas. Heavy rains flooded parts of North Carolina, claiming six lives. The Haw River crested at 32.5 feet, only a third of a foot away from its all-time high, set after Hurricane Fran in 1996, according to the weather service office in Raleigh. Chantal also spawned four EF-1 tornadoes in North Carolina, one each in Mebane, Snow Camp, southern Pittsboro and at the Raleigh Executive Jetport. The highest rainfall totals were reported in Chatham County, where 11.92 inches were reported in Moncure and Pittsboro, where the weather service collected five other rainfall reports of between 10 and 11.5 inches.
USA Today
12-07-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
Tropical trouble could be brewing around Florida, hurricane forecasters say
A broad area of low pressure could develop sometime within the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Another potential tropical disturbance popped up on the National Hurricane Center's tracking chart on Saturday, July 12. For those who watch every potential storm closely, this initial map looks a lot like the first one that popped up for Tropical Storm Chantal. The possible development area swoops from the Atlantic to the Gulf across much of Florida, but this time the system is moving toward the Gulf, and the advisory includes the southern shores of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. A broad area of low pressure could develop sometime within the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast, the hurricane center said on the afternoon of July 12. Environmental conditions could become "marginally conducive" for the gradual development of a system within five to seven days as it moves westward across Florida. The chances of development are low, only 20%. If for some reason, a tropical storm does develop, the next name on the list this season is Dexter. "Should development take place on the Atlantic side of Florida, it may once again drift northward toward the U.S. coast," Accuweather said on July 11. The more plausible option is development on the Gulf side, which could be steered westward along the northern Gulf Coast, the weather forecast company stated. Regardless of development, the area of disturbed weather is expected to be a rainmaker in the region. Heavy rain is possible over parts of Florida and the Southeast coast through mid-to-late week, the center stated in the July 12 advisory. Tropical weather watchers say windshear over the Caribbean and dry air and Saharan dust over the Atlantic have helped keep this hurricane season from getting too busy so far. Still Chantal's development put the 2025 hurricane season about a month ahead of schedule. Typically the third Atlantic named storm doesn't form until August 3, according to Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, who leads its seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season each year. The season was forecast to see above normal activity, however the latest forecast from Klotzbach and his team slightly reduced the number of possible storms. What happened to Tropical Storm Chantal? Chantal formed off the Southeast U.S. coast on July 4, then moved over the Carolinas. Heavy rains flooded parts of North Carolina, claiming six lives. Chantal victims: At least six deaths were reported in flooding in North Carolina The Haw River crested at 32.5 feet, only a third of a foot away from its all-time high, set after Hurricane Fran in 1996, according to the weather service office in Raleigh. Chantal also spawned four EF-1 tornadoes in North Carolina, one each in Mebane, Snow Camp, southern Pittsboro and at the Raleigh Executive Jetport. The highest rainfall totals were reported in Chatham County, where 11.92 inches were reported in Moncure and Pittsboro, where the weather service collected five other rainfall reports of between 10 and 11.5 inches. Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
Boston Globe
13-06-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
Hurricane season started two weeks ago. Where are the storms?
But one usually arrives before the end of the month, and Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, said it was unclear when this year's first storm would form. Here's a look at what's going on. Advertisement A storm gets a name when its sustained winds reach 39 miles per hour, and it becomes a Category 1 hurricane when they reach 74 miles per hour. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up A key ingredient for that is warm ocean waters, with temperatures at 80 degrees or above, and Jason Dunion, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said many locations across the Atlantic had not quite reached that threshold. 'The waters are still warming, and they're actually a little bit cooler than last year, so we're not seeing some of those record temperatures,' Dunion said. Sea surface temperatures set records last year, which also made hurricanes more likely to rapidly intensify and become more destructive. Saharan dust carried from North Africa is another factor. It travels far across the Atlantic Ocean, creating a layer of dry air in the atmosphere that can suppress storm development. Dunion described the layer as a combination of 'superdry air that inhibits clouds, warm air that helps put a lid on clouds, and thunderstorm development, and a strong jet of winds that acts to tilt and tear thunderstorms apart.' Advertisement This week, a plume of dust spread from the central Atlantic all the way through the Caribbean, for more than 2,500 miles, which is roughly distance between Washington, D.C., and San Francisco. 'It's huge,' said Dunion, adding that conditions in large portions of the Atlantic just weren't favorable for hurricanes because of the dust plume. The season for trans-Atlantic dust begins in June and tapers off in mid-August, just as hurricane activity usually picks up. Dunion calls mid-August the 'switch point.' Klotzbach said wind shear had also been thwarting the formation of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, where tropical storms often form at this point in the season. Wind shear is the change of wind speed and direction with height, and it is notorious for shredding apart hurricanes and keeping tropical storms from developing. Like NOAA, Klotzbach's team at Colorado State released a forecast this spring that predicted an above-average number of storms this year. But if the shear remains elevated for several more weeks, he said, he may scale back his forecast 'substantially.' On Wednesday, Klotzbach's team issued an update saying that, for now, it was standing by its earlier expectation. In a typical season, there are 14 named storms. NOAA has predicted between 13 and 19 this year; Klotzbach's team expects there to be 17. If the storm shear in the Gulf were to weaken and a storm were to move through the Caribbean or the Gulf, 'we certainly have plenty of fuel there to get a robust hurricane,' Klotzbach said. Advertisement In the eastern Pacific, where hurricane season began on May 15 and where storms typically form before they do in the Atlantic, has been off to a busy start. Four storms have formed off the west coast of North America: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, and Dalila. Both seasons run through Nov. 30.
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
2025 hurricane season: Colorado State researchers still expect 17 named storms this year
Colorado State University researchers, in an update to their hurricane season outlook, said Wednesday that the forecast remains the same: You can expect an estimated 17 named storms this year, with nine of them becoming hurricanes. Of the nine predicted hurricanes, CSU researchers believe four could hit major hurricane strength, which means achieving sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Above-average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea is primarily what's to blame for the higher-than-normal expected number of hurricanes as a main fuel source for intense storms is warm ocean water. However, CSU researchers also noted 'more uncertainty' with the June forecast due to the climate signals — the sea-surface temperatures — being somewhat weaker this year than last. 'So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2021,' Phil Klotzbach, a CSU senior research scientist, said in a statement. 'While the average of our analog seasons had above-average levels of activity, the relatively large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the uncertainty associated with this outlook.' This year's forecast is tamer than 2024's forecast when CSU researchers predicted an 'extremely active' season with 11 hurricanes. Temperatures in the Atlantic were very hot in June of last year at 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. But since January of this year, winds have been blowing across the Atlantic fairly strongly, Klotzbach said, which means the water won't be as hot. Klotzbach compared it to exiting a swimming pool on a windy day: 'You're cold and in a hurry because of all the evaporational cooling,' he said. The consensus about this year's forecast generally appears to be similar, Klotzbach said. CSU looks at other entities' predictions too, and most tend to be at or above average, according to the seasonal hurricane predictions data made in conjunction with Barcelona Supercomputing Center. 'On average most groups are (predicting) somewhere between eight and nine hurricanes,' Klotzbach said. 'There's really nobody going super gangbusters.' And even though hurricane season has already begun, the major hurricanes are not likely to hit until the period between August and October, Klotzbach said. CSU first released its hurricane season forecast in April and will again release updates in July and August. Klotzbach emphasized how the forecasts are informational tools and not meant to teach people exactly how to prepare. 'The forecast could be woefully wrong, maybe it's a super quiet season. but even if we can forecast exactly the number of storms, we can't tell you where they're going to go,' he said.
