Latest news with #KobeissiLetter
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump May 'Want' A Recession: Market Observer Says It Serves His Economic Agenda—Lower Rates, Oil Prices, And Trade Deficit
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. A viral post on X speculates that President Donald Trump might see a strategic upside in a recession. What Happened: On Thursday, popular newsletter, The Kobeissi Letter, posted on X, drawing parallels between Trump's economic agenda and the current state of the markets and the broader macro-environment.'In a way, President Trump may actually want a recession,' the post says. 'A recession achieves most of Trump's economic goals at once,' referring to his campaign promises of low inflation, treasury yields, a reduction in trade deficits, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and lower oil prices. Trending: Maker of the $60,000 foldable home has 3 factory buildings, 600+ houses built, and big plans to solve housing — The post comes amid soaring U.S. Treasury Yields, with 30-Year yields at 5.04%, the 20-Year at 5.05%, and the 10-Year note at 4.53%. On Wednesday, the sale of $16 billion worth of 20-Year Treasury notes saw weak demand, marking a new low for U.S. Government bonds and rattling equity markets this week. The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSE:SPY) is down 0.85%, followed by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), both down 0.11% and 1.16%, respectively, this week so far. The post says the Trump team may be recalibrating its messaging strategy after 'realizing the trade deal headlines won't work anymore.' 'A recession may be the 'best' solution after years of inflation and 'free' money,' the thread concludes, while quoting a chart showing the S&P 500's nearly 80-point decline in a span of 30 minutes, without any 'major' It Matters: Several leading economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned Trump to walk back on his proposed tax agenda, like he did with the tariffs, citing pressure on Treasuries. Early this week, Summers warned that the U.S. was at risk of a fiscal crisis similar to what the U.K. experienced in 2022, calling it Trump's 'Liz Truss Moment,' in reference to the British Prime Minister who had to quit following the crisis. Economist Mohamed El-Erian had a more balanced take on the administration's policies, having said last month that they could either result in fairer global trade, alongside lower tariff and non-tariff barriers, or it could lead to stagflation, which he calls 'Jimmy Carter all over again,' referring to the 1970s, when Jimmy Carter was President. Read Next: Hasbro, MGM, and Skechers trust this AI marketing firm — Invest at $0.60/share before it's too late. Invest Where It Hurts — And Help Millions Heal: Invest in Cytonics and help disrupt a $390B Big Pharma stronghold. Photo courtesy: / Send To MSN: Send to MSN This article Trump May 'Want' A Recession: Market Observer Says It Serves His Economic Agenda—Lower Rates, Oil Prices, And Trade Deficit originally appeared on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump May 'Want' A Recession: Market Observer Says It Serves His Economic Agenda—Lower Rates, Oil Prices, And Trade Deficit
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. A viral post on X speculates that President Donald Trump might see a strategic upside in a recession. What Happened: On Thursday, popular newsletter, The Kobeissi Letter, posted on X, drawing parallels between Trump's economic agenda and the current state of the markets and the broader macro-environment.'In a way, President Trump may actually want a recession,' the post says. 'A recession achieves most of Trump's economic goals at once,' referring to his campaign promises of low inflation, treasury yields, a reduction in trade deficits, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and lower oil prices. Trending: Maker of the $60,000 foldable home has 3 factory buildings, 600+ houses built, and big plans to solve housing — The post comes amid soaring U.S. Treasury Yields, with 30-Year yields at 5.04%, the 20-Year at 5.05%, and the 10-Year note at 4.53%. On Wednesday, the sale of $16 billion worth of 20-Year Treasury notes saw weak demand, marking a new low for U.S. Government bonds and rattling equity markets this week. The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSE:SPY) is down 0.85%, followed by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), both down 0.11% and 1.16%, respectively, this week so far. The post says the Trump team may be recalibrating its messaging strategy after 'realizing the trade deal headlines won't work anymore.' 'A recession may be the 'best' solution after years of inflation and 'free' money,' the thread concludes, while quoting a chart showing the S&P 500's nearly 80-point decline in a span of 30 minutes, without any 'major' It Matters: Several leading economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned Trump to walk back on his proposed tax agenda, like he did with the tariffs, citing pressure on Treasuries. Early this week, Summers warned that the U.S. was at risk of a fiscal crisis similar to what the U.K. experienced in 2022, calling it Trump's 'Liz Truss Moment,' in reference to the British Prime Minister who had to quit following the crisis. Economist Mohamed El-Erian had a more balanced take on the administration's policies, having said last month that they could either result in fairer global trade, alongside lower tariff and non-tariff barriers, or it could lead to stagflation, which he calls 'Jimmy Carter all over again,' referring to the 1970s, when Jimmy Carter was President. Read Next: Hasbro, MGM, and Skechers trust this AI marketing firm — Invest at $0.60/share before it's too late. Invest Where It Hurts — And Help Millions Heal: Invest in Cytonics and help disrupt a $390B Big Pharma stronghold. Photo courtesy: / Send To MSN: Send to MSN This article Trump May 'Want' A Recession: Market Observer Says It Serves His Economic Agenda—Lower Rates, Oil Prices, And Trade Deficit originally appeared on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Epoch Times
05-05-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
Warren Buffett to Stay On as Berkshire Chairman After Greg Abel Takes Over as CEO
Warren Buffett will remain chairman of Berkshire Hathaway after stepping down as chief executive at the end of the year, the company's board of directors announced on May 5, after unanimously approving Vice Chairman Greg Abel as CEO effective Jan. 1, 2026. The board's The move comes two days after Buffett stunned thousands of shareholders by 'I think the time has arrived where Greg should become the chief executive officer of the company at year end,' Buffett told the crowd. 'I have no intention—zero—of selling one share of Berkshire Hathaway. I will give it away eventually.' He called the decision to retain his full stake 'an economic decision,' adding, 'I think the prospects of Berkshire will be better under Greg's management than mine.' Buffett's announcement marked the end of an era—and the beginning of the most significant leadership change in Berkshire's modern history. Although Abel had long been identified as his successor, Buffett had repeatedly said he had no plans to step down. Related Stories 5/3/2025 5/3/2025 Many had assumed the handoff would occur only after Buffett's death. The unanimous vote by the board on May 4 made the transition process official. During his tenure, Buffett transformed Berkshire from a humble Massachusetts textile mill into one of America's most influential corporations, with major holdings across insurance, energy, transportation, consumer goods, and more. As the company expanded, so did Buffett's renown—Berkshire shares consistently outpaced the market, delivering an average annual return of 19.9 percent, compared to the S&P 500's 10.4 percent. 'Since 1964, Berkshire Hathaway has returned over 5,500,000%. That's 5.5 MILLION percent. A $10,000 investment in 1964 would be worth $550 million today,' the Kobeissi Letter, a popular capital market commentary account on social media platform X, Abel, who currently oversees Berkshire's non-insurance operations, has earned praise for his management style and deep knowledge of the businesses. As incoming CEO, he will take on new responsibilities—most notably leading Berkshire's insurance division and deciding how to allocate its vast cash reserves. Vice Chairman Ajit Jain will remain in place to help manage insurance operations. Buffett's endorsement of Abel during Saturday's meeting in Omaha was unambiguous, and the crowd responded with a standing ovation. The meeting also gave Buffett a platform to share his thoughts on market turbulence and investing discipline. He downplayed recent volatility and urged shareholders to focus on fundamentals. 'What has happened in the last 30, 45 days ... is really nothing,' Buffett said. 'This [has] not been a dramatic bear market or anything of the sort.' He reminded investors that Berkshire's stock had dropped by 50 percent three times in its history, but the company's fundamentals remained sound throughout.
The Star
30-04-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. Fed's closely watched inflation measure rises 2.3 pct in March
WASHINGTON, April 30 (Xinhua) -- The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose 2.3 percent in March, slowing from a 2.7 percent increase in February, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) gauge takes into account how consumers change their behavior in light of higher prices, and is a broader measure of consumer behavior than the consumer price index (CPI). The so-called core PCE price index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6 percent in March from a year ago, slowing from a 3.0 percent increase in February. The latest data is still above the Fed's inflation target of 2 percent. Despite signs of easing inflation, economists remain concerned about future inflation due to the Trump administration's expansive tariff policies. In mid-April, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the administration's tariff hikes are likely to cause a short-term rise in inflation, while supply chain disruptions could lead to more persistent pressure. "The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell told an event hosted by the Economic Club of Chicago. The PCE data was released on the same day when the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) shrank at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of this year. The Kobeissi Letter, a financial publication, noted that multiple indicators are now showing a recession to the base case expectation in 2025. "Markets fully price-in four 25-basis point interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. Markets think that the Fed will prioritize declining U.S. economic output over a potential rebound in inflation," the Kobeissi Letter said.
Time of India
23-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Trump's tariff tumble: The twist in US-China trade war
China has mocked Trump's tariffs as a "numbers game" and a "joke" with no economic benefits. By all appearances, Donald Trump is looking for a way out. Just months into his second presidency, the US President is signaling a retreat - or at least a recalibration - on one of his most aggressive economic fronts: the trade war with China. At a White House press conference on Tuesday, Trump appeared to temper his earlier hardline stance on tariffs, saying duties on Chinese imports 'will come down substantially' but 'won't be zero.' His tone was markedly less confrontational: 'We're going to be very nice and they're going to be very nice,' he said, striking an oddly conciliatory note for a man who just weeks ago called Chinese trade practices 'cheating at a planetary scale. ' To some, this sounded like strategy. But to many experts and investors, it sounded more like anxiety. 'Trump is panicking due to the markets plummeting and still very high US treasury yields,' said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis, in comments to the South China Morning Post. 'He needs a deal - and quick. China does not need to offer anything big in such circumstances.' Beijing isn't biting For now, Beijing appears in no rush to respond. And that, experts say, is precisely the point. Chinese President Xi Jinping has maintained radio silence even as Trump continues to dangle public invitations for dialogue. The response from Beijing has been calculated - and increasingly cold. According to the Kobeissi Letter, state-backed Chinese funds have begun pulling back from US private equity investments under pressure from the government. Major players like the China Investment Corporation have halted planned commitments, and Chinese investors are avoiding US-linked deals, even when managed offshore. The message: China is not only refusing to blink — it's preparing to go without. This week, China's commerce ministry issued a blunt warning: it 'firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests.' It's a posture steeped in nationalism and, increasingly, leverage. 'We have an embargo now' Despite the White House's optimistic language, the broader reality is grim. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Google Brain Co-Founder Andrew Ng, Recommends: Read These 5 Books And Turn Your Life Around Blinkist: Andrew Ng's Reading List Undo Treasury secretary Scott Bessent privately admitted in a closed-door investor summit that the current status quo - 145% tariffs by the US and 125% retaliatory duties from China — amounts to 'a two-way embargo.' Though he predicted 'de-escalation' in the near future, he conceded that formal negotiations haven't even begun. 'No one thinks the current situation is sustainable,' Bessent said. But he also acknowledged the absence of a road map. Markets responded favorably - temporarily. The S&P 500 rose 2.5% on the day, buoyed by hopes that Washington might finally relent. But the deeper concern is structural: the tariffs have roiled financial markets, triggered selloffs in US Treasuries, and spooked investors who once viewed the dollar as a safe haven. As the New York Times noted, Trump's personalized approach - ratcheting up pressure to force a top-level summit - has so far failed. Xi Jinping, it seems, won't be strong-armed into a phone call, the NYT said. 'The more he talks, the more anxious he looks' Trump's own remarks may be undercutting his leverage. 'In reality, there hasn't been any substantial progress or change in the US-China tariff negotiations,' said Chen Zhiwu, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong. 'This is [Trump's] way of signaling to China.' 'But the more he talks like this, the more it shows how anxious the US side is,' Chen told the SCMP. 'Trump and his team are under pressure, but China isn't showing any signs of impatience.' Others agree that Trump's apparent softening is likely a reflection of pressure at home — not progress abroad. 'Rising living costs, economic disarray, and popular discontent will eventually force a definite pivot,' said Xu Tianchen of the Economist Intelligence Unit. For now, he said, Trump's tariff comments appear more like improvisation than strategy. 'Things are still pretty fluid.' A self-inflicted wound? If Trump's goal was to pressure Beijing into concessions, analysts argue he may have misjudged the moment - and his opponent. The 145% tariffs have hurt Chinese exporters, but they've also fueled inflation in the US, raised costs for American businesses, and alienated allies. China, by contrast, appears increasingly insulated. Years of preparation — diversifying trade routes, investing in domestic supply chains, and cultivating new markets in Asia, Africa, and Europe — have paid off. Beijing has been methodical, and perhaps more importantly, patient. US-China relations are in "effectively a state of economic war," Susan Thornton, who served as acting top US diplomat for East Asia during Trump's first administration, told AFP. "China views Trump's stated intent to... erect a 'tariff wall against China' as illegal and an existential threat," Thornton, now a senior fellow at Yale's Paul Tsai China Center, said. Meanwhile, Washington is bleeding goodwill - and time. No deal, no summit Even the possibility of a Trump-Xi summit now seems remote. 'Trump has torched any realistic chance of a near-term meeting,' said Wu Xinbo of Fudan University. 'His behavior is seen as rude and unreasonable — there's no trust.' Others echo that view. 'Neither Trump nor Xi will want to convey that he has yielded to the other,' Ali Wyne of the International Crisis Group told AFP. 'They both want to look strong. But Xi has the advantage of time.' For Beijing, a deal now - under economic duress and political chaos in Washington - would look like capitulation. That is politically untenable for Xi, who has spent years cultivating an image of strength and resolve. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . Master Value & Valuation with ET! Learn to invest smartly & decode financials. Limited seats at 33% off – Enroll now!
