Latest news with #Kobsak
Bangkok Post
08-07-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Bankers hope to mimic Vietnam deal
The US's proposed 36% tariff on Thai goods is likely to severely undermine Thailand's export competitiveness, warn economists in the banking sector. The best outcome Thailand can likely secure in trade negotiations with the US is a tariff rate of 20-25%, similar to the rate granted to Vietnam, said Kobsak Pootrakool, senior executive vice-president of Bangkok Bank. NEGATIVE IMPACT "If the final rate is higher, such as the proposed 36%, it would severely disadvantage Thai exporters and make it extremely difficult for them to compete in international markets," said Mr Kobsak. "The most pressing concern is Vietnam already secured a 20% tariff rate. If Thailand faces a significantly higher tariff, foreign companies planning investment here may shift their investments to Vietnam, inflicting long-term damage to the Thai economy." The US accounts for 18% of Thailand's exports. If the 36% rate is implemented, exports to the US could fall to 10% of the total, weakening bilateral trade relations over the long term, he said. The government should act swiftly by expanding into new export markets and offering export loan guarantees for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to cushion the impact, said Mr Kobsak. For some crops such as soybeans, which Thailand already imports in large quantities, tariffs may be eliminated. However, for other agricultural and livestock products, the government may need to negotiate special terms or allocate budgetary support to assist local producers, he said. Despite a slowing economy, the baht is at its strongest level in 2-3 years, due primarily to its inverse correlation with the US dollar, he said. To mitigate the effects of US tariffs, Mr Kobsak recommends exporters diversify into India, the Middle East, China, and Southeast Asia. He urged the government to guarantee export loans for SMEs through the Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation, while supporting SMEs through government procurement programmes. 'GIVE AND TAKE' STRATEGY Pipat Luengnaruemitcha, chief economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, said the Thai government may need to adopt a give-and-take negotiation strategy, rather than aiming for a win-win outcome, following the US announcing it will maintain a 36% tariff on Thai exports. Citing the US-Vietnam negotiations, Mr Pipat said the US may expect Thailand to open its market further to American products, reduce import tariffs, remove non-tariff barriers, and address fraudulent origin labelling. He suggested Thailand gradually liberalise sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture. While agriculture is a pillar of the Thai economy and employs a large portion of the population, the government could implement measures to mitigate any short-term impact, said Mr Pipat. Thailand should also strengthen its competitiveness by attracting high-value and high-tech investments through incentives such as R&D support and tax credits to encourage electric vehicle parts manufacturing, artificial intelligence hardware production, and data centres, he said. Mr Pipat said an integrated task force is needed, comprising the Finance, Commerce and Agriculture ministries collaborating with the private sector to enable swift and strategic decision-making. Clear communication with all stakeholders is vital, including the US and international investors, about Thailand's serious commitment to economic development, he said. TOURISM A BUFFER If higher US tariffs are applied to Thai exports, the greatest impact would likely be felt in electronics and electrical components, where Thailand could face intensified global competition, said Sathit Talaengsatya, an economist at UOB Thailand. "Thailand maintains a competitive edge in tourism and hospitality, which should be developed into high-value service sectors such as wellness tourism to offset the impact on manufacturing exports," he said.
The Star
08-07-2025
- Business
- The Star
Thailand's stock investor confidence turns bearish in June
BANGKOK, July 8 (Xinhua) -- Thailand's stock investor confidence worsened in June due to domestic political uncertainty, international conflicts, and fund outflows, a survey showed on Tuesday. The investor confidence index, which predicts market conditions over the next three months, stood at 58.45 last month, plunging from 110.36 in May to the "bearish" zone, according to the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO). Investor morale declined among all categories, with proprietary investors down 61.9 percent, foreign investors down 55.6 percent, institutional investors down 42.1 percent, and retail investors down 14.2 percent, the FETCO said in a statement. The Thai capital market experienced high volatility in June as the local political situation fueled investor anxiety over the government's stability, along with border tensions with neighboring Cambodia and the Iran-Israel conflict, said FETCO Chairman Kobsak Pootrakool. Kobsak told a news conference that the outcome of trade negotiations between the United States and its trading partners, coupled with geopolitical issues in the Middle East affecting oil prices and potentially impacting the global economy, are external factors to monitor. Locally, a constitutional court order suspending Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra pending an ethics investigation could adversely affect the implementation of key economic policies and harm the private sector's long-term investment strategies, he said. He noted that the Thai economic slowdown expected in the latter half of the year, driven by weakened exports and a decline in inbound tourists, was also a concern.
Bangkok Post
30-06-2025
- Business
- Bangkok Post
Thai political battles take toll on investment
Bangkok Bank (BBL) anticipates that ongoing domestic political instability will further delay investment decisions, compounding the impact of US tariffs on Thai exports. According to Kobsak Pootrakool, senior executive vice-president at BBL, the prevailing political uncertainty could postpone investment decisions across both the public and private sectors. At the same time, many businesses are holding off on investment until there is greater clarity regarding US tariff policies on Thai exports and the outcome of the Thai government's trade negotiations with the United States. "Political developments in Thailand are generally difficult to predict," Mr Kobsak noted. "As such, the bank is closely monitoring the situation and assessing the potential implications for the Thai economy. Nevertheless, external uncertainties, particularly those arising from US trade policies, remain a major challenge to the country's growth prospects this year, especially given Thailand's existing structural issues." In response to these headwinds, BBL has slashed its 2025 Thai GDP growth forecast to 2%, from 3%, based on the assumption that the US will impose reciprocal tariffs on Thai exports in the range of 10-15%. In a worst-case scenario, if risks materialise further, GDP growth could fall to 1.5%, primarily due to the impact of the tariffs, Mr Kobsak said. He added that although Thai exports appeared robust in the first half of the year, this strength was largely driven by front-loading from buyers concerned about impending tariffs, and the export outlook beyond the early months remains highly uncertain. Export challenges are expected to intensify in the second half of the year. US importers may reduce their orders after stockpiling, while heightened trade tensions and potential tariff hikes could add further strain. In addition, should Chinese goods be redirected to other markets due to trade negotiations, Thai products may face increased competition in those regions, Mr Kobsak said. Meanwhile, he said the tourism sector is also facing headwinds thanks to an ongoing decline in the number of Chinese arrivals. In the first five months of 2025, international tourist arrivals dropped by 2-3% year-on-year, leading the bank to project total international tourist arrivals to tally around 35.5 million this year. "The decline in foreign tourists, particularly from China, has been driven by security concerns and the recent earthquake in Bangkok," Mr Kobsak said. "Typically, Thailand takes around four to five months to recover from such negative events." However, he added that the bank will be monitoring the tourism sector in the final quarter of the year. Should the government introduce new measures to attract international visitors, the sector may still see an improvement before year-end, he noted. In terms of monetary policy, Mr Kobsak expects the Bank of Thailand to cut its policy rate twice this year, lowering it from the current 1.75% to 1.25% in a bid to support the economy amid rising uncertainties. Additionally, the baht is projected to appreciate against the US dollar by the end of the year, in line with a weakening greenback.
The Star
13-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
Thai investor confidence holds steady amid economic concerns
Local growth: People shopoing at Bangkok's Chinatown. Stimulus packages, an anticipated local economic recovery and incoming fund flows are the primary positive influences lifting investor confidence in Thailand's economy. — Reuters BANGKOK: Investor confidence in Thailand remained in a 'neutral' zone in May 2025, influenced by hopes of government stimulus and domestic economic recovery, and tempered by concerns over sluggish local growth and global trade tensions. The latest Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations (FETCO) Investor Confidence Index registered 110.36 for May 2025. The survey, conducted between May 19 and 31, anticipated market conditions over the next three months. FETCO chairman Kobsak Pootrakool said that government stimulus packages were the primary positive influence, followed by an anticipated local economic recovery and incoming fund flows. Conversely, the 'sluggish Thai economy' was identified as the most significant drag on sentiment, alongside the ongoing trade wars and concerns over financial discipline. Elaborated on the breakdown by investor type, Kobsak noted an increase in confidence among retail investors (up 38.5% to 59.09) and proprietary investors (up 25.0% to 75). However, institutional investors saw a dip (down 15.9% to 110). Foreign investor confidence, in contrast, surged by 125% to 150. During May, the Thai capital market experienced volatility due to both domestic and international factors. While the easing of US trade policy provided some relief, slower-than-expected local economic growth dampened spirits. The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council revised Thailand's 2025 economic growth forecast down to 1.8%, a significant cut from its earlier prediction of 2.8%. Highlighting the economic slowdown, private consumption in the first quarter of 2025 expanded by only 2.6% and industrial production over the past five quarters saw a meagre 0.5% increase. — The Nation/ANN
