Latest news with #Kostin
Forbes
10 hours ago
- Politics
- Forbes
A Syria Deployment Exposed Russian Aircraft Carrier's Chronic Troubles
The Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov passes through the English channel on October 21, ... More 2016 near Dover, England. (Photo by) Russia has admitted that the fate of its sole aircraft carrier, the troubled Admiral Kuznetsov, is most likely either the scrapyard or an unlikely sale to another country. The move is hardly surprising in light of the ship's 2016 deployment to Syria's Mediterranean coast, an attempt to flex Russia's military muscles that ended up exposing the vessel's myriad problems. 'We believe there is no point in repairing it anymore. It is over 40 years old, and it is extremely expensive … I think the issue will be resolved in such a way that it will either be sold or disposed of,' Andrei Kostin, the chairman of Russia's state shipbuilding corporation, told Russia's Kommersant newspaper in July. While Kostin clarified that no final decision has been made, it has been clear for a decade now that the Admiral Kuznetsov is more trouble than it's worth. In 2016, it failed to even serve as a symbol of Russian power projection when Moscow dispatched it to Syria. In late October 2016, the carrier was photographed emitting its characteristic and ominous-looking black smoke as it steamed through the English Channel en route to the Eastern Mediterranean. The voyage came one year after Russia intervened in the civil war in Syria, where Russian warplanes based on the Syrian coast bombed cities in support of Syria's embattled dictator, Bashar al-Assad. As the Kuznetsov set off for Syria, media reports noted that if the 15 fighters on its deck joined its counterparts flying from Hmeimim Airbase in Syria's Latakia, it would mark the carrier's first-ever combat role. However, even before the carrier appeared off the Syrian coast, it was readily apparent that the few fighters it could carry mostly lacked ground attack capabilities. Unlike American carriers, the Kuznetsov launches fighters with a ski-jump on the bow rather than a catapult. Consequently, its Su-33 fighters take off with limited fuel and payloads and were only configured for air-to-air combat, making them ill-equipped to join in the horrific bombing of Syria's second city, Aleppo, at the time. The Kuznetsov also carried a smaller number of more advanced MiG-29KR carrier fighters of the kind Russia developed for the Indian Navy, which, incidentally, lost several in a spate of accidents. Unlike the Su-33, the MiG-29KR can conduct bombing attacks, but the Kuznetsov carried so few that they would make little discernible difference over Syria. Things quickly went wrong. A MiG-29KR crashed attempting to land on Kuznetsov on Nov. 14 before it even made it to Syria. Then, after it arrived off the war-torn country's coast, one of its Su-33 crashed into the sea in another landing accident on Dec. 5. Of course, accidents happen. The USS Harry S. Truman lost three of its F/A-18 Super Hornets in separate incidents earlier this year during the U.S. air campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. However, the Kuznetsov carries a fraction of the aircraft that the U.S. carriers like the Truman do, and significantly less advanced fighters at that. Consequently, the loss of the MiG-29KR and Su-33 marked approximately 13 percent of its fighter wing. Worse, satellite images revealed shortly after that the majority of the Kuznetsov's fighters had landed at Hmeimim rather than demonstrating their ability to conduct operations from the carrier off the coast—proof of concept for an aircraft carrier rather than an aircraft transport. With no less than four MiG-29KRs and Su-33s left on her deck, the Kuznetsov briefly operated with fewer combat aircraft than a typical U.S. Navy Wasp-class landing helicopter dock, which carries F-35Bs or AV-8B Harrier jump jets. The Russian carrier headed home in January 2017. Needless to say, its deployment hardly even succeeded as a symbolic projection of power for Moscow. That was hardly surprising considering that on an earlier Mediterranean deployment in December 2011, the U.S. Navy Sixth Fleet tracked the Russian carrier in case its chronic problems caused another accident and potential sinking. The Kuznetsov would spend seven years in a shipyard undergoing overhaul, leading to speculation in 2024 that it may never deploy again, especially given that its MiG-29KRs were reassigned for land-based missions. With Kostin's remark, it seems the Kuznetsov is destined for scrap as it's hard to conceive of any country wanting to buy such a decrepit, accident-prone, and maintenance-heavy warship from a country sanctioned for invading its neighbor. Although one never knows. It's somewhat amusing to recall that in 2021, former Turkish Rear Admiral Cihat Yayci suggested Turkey should obtain the Brazilian Navy's former flagship, the carrier NAe São Paulo. The oldest active aircraft carrier at the time, the Brazilian vessel also suffered chronic mechanical problems and ultimately spent less than a year at sea. Commissioned by France as the Foch in 1963, Brazil acquired it from France in 2000 and eventually concluded it was easier to sell it for scrap than invest millions more in trying to keep it operational. It sold it for scrap to Turkey, prompting Yayci to suggest that Turkey buy it and use it for naval training. (Ultimately, Turkey revoked the vessel's permission to dock after concluding it was packed with asbestos. Brazil later scuttled it in the Atlantic Ocean.) More perversely, speaking almost five years after the Kuznetsov's disastrous Syria deployment, Yayci even suggested that Turkey look into acquiring Su-33s 'as an aircraft alternative that we can use with the ship.' However, Russia only ever built a few dozen Su-33s in the 1990s, meaning any Su-33s Turkey acquired would have been secondhand and probably lack a reliable supply of spare parts. Unsurprisingly, Turkish officials dismissed Yayci's proposal on feasibility grounds as would any country today considering buying the Kuznetsov for anything other than scrap metal, presuming said countries don't have a Yayci-type figure guiding the ship of state.
Newsweek
a day ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Russia Faces Losing Its Only Aircraft Carrier
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Russia's only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, is likely to be sold or scrapped, marking the end of a vessel that was once a symbol of Moscow's naval ambition. The fate of the 40-year-old flagship of the Russian Navy had hung in the balance following years of repairs, having been out of service since 2017, and maintenance work suspended. However, Andrei Kostin, the chairman of Russia's state shipbuilding corporation (USC), told the newspaper Kommersant that "there is no point repairing it anymore." Yörük Işık, head of the Bosphorus Observer consultancy in Istanbul, told Newsweek on Monday that such a move meant "a loss of prestige" for Russia's Navy. Newsweek reached out to USC and the Russian Defense Ministry for comment. Why It Matters The Admiral Kuznetsov was launched in 1985, and while it had seen action in Moscow's military campaign in Syria, it has been out of service for eight years. Years of maintenance delays and increasing costs have raised questions about its technical effectiveness in modern warfare. But its scrapping will be seen as a sign of a diminishing Russian naval capability, especially as Ukrainian drones have chased most of its Black Sea Fleet away from its main base in Crimea. What To Know Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov tied up at a Rosatomflot moorage of the Russian northern port city of Murmansk on May 19, 2018. Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov tied up at a Rosatomflot moorage of the Russian northern port city of Murmansk on May 19, newspaper Izvestia reported earlier in July that the refit of the vessel had been suspended, and Kostin was asked about its fate on the sidelines of a flag-raising ceremony for a new nuclear submarine in northwestern Russia. Kostin confirmed the reports, telling Kommersant that there was no point in repairing it and that it will either be sold or disposed of, although no final decision had been taken. The 1000-foot-long Admiral Kuznetsov was the last heavy aircraft carrier built in the Soviet Union and was designed to combine aviation capabilities with strike capabilities. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the ship was transferred to Russia's Northern Fleet and was used in Russia's intervention in the Syrian civil war. It displaced 59,000 tons, had a range of 8,400 nautical miles and could carry a crew of 2,600 and hold 26 fixed-wing aircraft and 24 helicopters. But the carrier has faced technical problems, and The National Interest included it in a list of the world's worst aircraft carriers. A refit was scheduled to be completed by 2022 at the Zvyozdochka shipyard in the Barents Sea port city of Murmansk, but the project has been beset by problems and spiraling costs. In 2018, the floating dry dock where the ship was being repaired sank. The following year, a fire during welding work killed two people, and another fire broke out in 2022. The estimated cost of repairs has ballooned from 20 billion rubles ($256.4 million) in 2017 to 60 billion rubles ($769.2 million) the following year, and the timeline has been revised from 2022 to 2024, with no plans for its return yet. Işık, from the Bosphorus Observer, told Newsweek that, given it had been out of service for years, the exit of the vessel did not change much strategically but dealt a significant psychological blow to Russia's status as a naval power. Ukraine's "ingenious and out-of-the-box thinking" in striking Russia's Black Sea vessels has shown how naval war is changing, he said. "To extend power in far corners of the world, you need such vessels and Russia giving up the only such vessel it has like this means a loss of prestige," he added. Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Baltic Shipyard in St. Petersburg with Andrei Kostin, chairman of the United Shipbuilding Corporation, on January 26, 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Baltic Shipyard in St. Petersburg with Andrei Kostin, chairman of the United Shipbuilding Corporation, on January 26, 2024. Getty Images Russia's Navy vs. U.S. Navy Russia's Navy is ranked the world's number three, according to Military Watch Magazine and lags behind the U.S., which is number one. The loss of the Admiral Kuznetzov would mean that Russia would have no aircraft carriers. However, under Russian classification, the vessel is designated a heavy aircraft cruiser, which allows it to transit the Turkish Straits. The U.S. has 11 supercarriers to Russia's zero, which can deploy over 70 combat aircraft from multiple runways with catapult-assisted takeoffs. There are also 92 American cruisers/destroyers to Russia's 13, while the U.S. has more than twice as many frigates (21 to 10) as Russia. The countries' submarines are relatively close in number, with the U.S. having 53 attack submarines to Russia's 28, while there are 14 American ballistic missile submarines to Russia's 11. What People Are Saying Chairman of Russia's state shipbuilding corporation (USC) Andrei Kostin told Kommersant: "There is no point in repairing (the Admiral Kuznetsov) anymore. It is over 40-years old, and it is extremely expensive." Yörük Işık, head of the Bosphorus Observer consultancy in Istanbul, told Newsweek that the loss of the vessel "in psychological terms is huge." Former Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Sergey Avakyants told Izvestia that aircraft carriers like the Admiral Kuznetsov: "Are a thing of the past — massive and costly structures that can be destroyed within minutes by modern weapons." What Happens Next Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled plans for military spending cuts starting next year. It is unclear whether the fate of the Admiral Kuznetsov will be part of these considerations, but Kostin's comments suggest a final decision has not yet been made.
Straits Times
4 days ago
- Politics
- Straits Times
Russia's lone aircraft carrier likely to be scrapped or sold, says shipbuilding chief
FILE PHOTO: A photo taken from a Norwegian surveillance aircraft shows Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov in international waters off the coast of Northern Norway on October 17, 2016. Handout via Reuters/File Photo MOSCOW - Russia's only aircraft carrier, the 40-year-old Admiral Kuznetsov, is likely to be sold or scrapped, the chairman of Russia's state shipbuilding corporation told the Kommersant newspaper in comments published on Friday. Andrei Kostin's remarks follow a report in the daily Izvestia newspaper earlier this month, which cited unnamed sources as saying long-running refit and maintenance work on the warship had been suspended. Launched in 1985 when the Soviet Union still existed, the Admiral Kuznetsov saw action in Russia's military campaign in Syria in support of then-President Bashar al-Assad, with its planes carrying out airstrikes against rebel forces. But it has played no role in the war in Ukraine and has been out of service since 2017, undergoing modernisation in the Murmansk area close to where Russia's Northern Fleet is based. Efforts to overhaul it have suffered repeated accidents and setbacks. Asked about its fate on Thursday on the sidelines of a flag-raising ceremony for a new nuclear submarine in northwestern Russia, Kostin made it clear that a final decision had not yet been taken, but suggested that the Admiral Kuznetsov was no longer worth spending money on. "We believe there is no point in repairing it anymore. It is over 40-years old, and it is extremely expensive ... I think the issue will be resolved in such a way that it will either be sold or disposed of," Kostin was quoted as saying by Kommersant. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore SMRT to pay lower fine of $2.4m for EWL disruption; must invest at least $600k to boost reliability Singapore MRT service changes needed to modify 3 East-West Line stations on Changi Airport stretch: LTA Singapore S'pore could have nuclear energy 'within a few years', if it decides on it: UN nuclear watchdog chief Asia Live: Thailand-Cambodia border clashes continue for second day Life 'Do you kill children?': Even before independence, S'pore has always loved its over-the-top campaigns Singapore Lung damage, poor brain development, addiction: What vaping does to the body Singapore Fine for couple whose catering companies owed $432,000 in salaries to 103 employees Singapore Kopi, care and conversation: How this 20-year-old helps improve the well-being of the elderly Detailed information about the combat readiness of individual warships is regarded as sensitive by Moscow and the Russian Defence Ministry does not comment on such matters. Russian naval veterans and experts are divided on the prospect of the warship being scrapped, with some telling Izvestia it is obsolete, and others saying it or a successor would provide a capability that Russia needs. The aircraft carrier gained notoriety in Britain when then-Secretary of Defence Michael Fallon dubbed it the "ship of shame" in 2017 when it passed close to the English coast on its way back from the Mediterranean belching black smoke. REUTERS
Yahoo
22-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
One chart shows how the market has moved on from tariffs — for now
Stocks aren't moving on tariff headlines like they used to. This trend has been evident over the past several weeks as equities have continued to rise to record highs despite ongoing threats from President Trump regarding escalating tariffs on a variety of countries. In a recent note to clients, Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin analyzed the performance of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and a basket of stocks with "broad tariff exposure." Through April, both stocks had been reacting aggressively to tariff announcements from Trump. But as the below chart shows, the reactions have become increasingly smaller during Trump's latest flurry of letters detailing reciprocal tariffs throughout July. "Our client conversations indicate that many investors believe tariff rates will eventually settle lower than what the recent announcements have indicated," Kostin wrote. Kostin noted that, up to this point, economic data on consumer spending, inflation, and the labor market have shown a "smaller impact" from tariffs than many investors have feared. This resiliency, which also emerged in the early reporting period for second quarter financial updates from S&P 500 companies, has been backing the market's chug higher to fresh records. "Equity investors appear to be looking through potential near-term economic and earnings weakness and focusing instead on the prospect for robust growth in 2026," Kostin wrote. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Kostin expects the S&P 500 to gain another 5% in the next six months and 10% in the next 12 months. That call is predicated in part on "investors' continued willingness to focus on the solid longer-term trajectory of earnings growth," per Kostin. Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson also expressed optimism about the outlook for stocks in the intermediate term, writing in a note to clients he's "leaning toward" his bull case for the S&P 500, which would bring the benchmark index to 7,200 in the next year. That stance relies on corporate earnings resilience and the lack of impact seen from tariffs thus far. "An under appreciated aspect of the earnings story into 2026 is that positive operating leverage is returning due in part to lower wage costs, and it may be further enhanced by AI adoption," Wilson wrote. "We're also not hearing a significant level of concern from corporates in terms of tariff-related costs impacting margins thus far, though we could hear more about this risk in 3Q." Wilson did note there are a variety of short-term risks, such as the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) recently rising close to 4.5%, a level that's challenged equities over the past several years, and the possibility that tariffs send inflation higher in the next few months. "It's important to note that we think these risks are temporary and only likely to lead to modest consolidation in price — we're buyers of dips," Wilson wrote. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
15-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stock Pros See Forecasts as ‘Necessary Evil' in Era of Policy Chaos
(Bloomberg) -- As President Donald Trump awaited his second inauguration in January, David J. Kostin, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s chief US equity strategist, had a clear view of what that would mean for stocks: another year of solid gains. Advocates Fear US Agents Are Using 'Wellness Checks' on Children as a Prelude to Arrests LA Homelessness Drops for Second Year He forecast the S&P 500 Index would rise 11% to 6,500 by 2025's end. It didn't take long for his outlook to unravel. China's DeepSeek technology burst the artificial intelligence bubble, recession warnings rang out as Trump unveiled the harshest tariffs in 90 years and the S&P 500 slumped toward a bear market. A week later, Trump reversed and unleashed the best stock rally since the 1980s. As those events unfolded, Kostin felt compelled to change his target a whopping four times over the course of four months. In the past decade, he's made an average of just two changes per year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Such is life for Wall Street strategists under the extreme capriciousness of the Trump administration, where global trade policies are set on whims and changed just as randomly. While investors seem to have grown inured to the vacillations — the S&P 500 has churned near a record for the past few weeks — forecasting where the benchmark will be in six or 12 months has become hazardous. 'It's like being on a roller coaster,' said Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research. 'As a strategist, you don't like to change your forecast too often because then you lose your credibility. But in my career, I don't recall so much uncertainty in such a short period of time.' Kostin had plenty of company as he tried to keep up with Trump. In December, the 19 strategists tracked by Bloomberg predicted on average the S&P 500 would rise 13% to 6,614 this year. Oppenheimer & Co.'s John Stoltzfus saw it jumping a Street-high of 21%. Even the most bearish prognosticator, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, expected gains of 2%. By May, the group had on average slashed their outlook by 9% — a faster pace than at the start of the pandemic in 2020. As June started, many had reverted to being bulls. The S&P 500 closed Monday at 6,268.56 points, bringing this year's rally to nearly 7%. Kostin now expects the benchmark to end the year at 6,600, but with Trump's trade policies far from cemented, it's a safe bet the Goldman man may have to act again. 'The shifting tariff landscape creates large uncertainty around our earnings forecasts,' Kostin wrote in a note to clients. 'However, we expect the digestion of tariffs to be a gradual process, and large-cap companies appear to have some buffer from inventories ahead of the increase in tariff rates.' A spokesperson for Goldman Sachs declined to comment. The rapid-fire changes to once stolid forecasts have rekindled an age-old debate about the utility of Wall Street strategists. Generally, the cohort offers fairly similar views — usually between a 0% and 10% annual gain in the S&P 500. Big misses, of which there have been many in recent years, do little reputational damage. 'Most of the time, you look back at the year-ahead forecasts and you laugh because you say, what was I thinking?,' said Anthi Tsouvali, UBS Global Wealth Management's multi-asset strategist. 'But it's very hard to shift to an environment where no one publishes those forecasts, because it's a relatively easy way for people to understand how bullish or bearish you are.' Changing Models In the era of Trump, strategists have had to amend the way they model forecasts. The team at BlackRock Inc. briefly reduced its 'tactical' investment horizon to three months from six-to-12 months, noting the shorter time-frame would better reflect the pressure on US stocks. Tsouvali's team began focusing on granular opportunities among single stocks instead of taking 'very big outright risk' at the index level. Beata Manthey, head of European and global equity strategy at Citigroup Inc., tweaked her forecasting methodology to add a measure of how wars and trade policies would impact stocks. After the wild market ride in April, they now account for a 'geopolitical risk premium,' which includes policy fluctuations as well as volatility linked to conflicts. 'We were in a very scary place back then,' Manthey said. 'Even so, all the big events of this year were absolutely predictable and everybody should have had them in the models, but we underestimated the scale.' Her models now show the market is again too sanguine about a potential trade-driven shock after the rebound to records. With Wall Street forecasts reverting to broadly bullish, 'that's a worry,' Manthey said. Citi's US strategy team upgraded its S&P 500 target to 6,300 in June after slashing it by 11% on Trump's tariff shock in April. Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research and ex-Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist, said gauging the hit from tariffs on corporate profits has made market forecasting particularly challenging. Here, too, Wall Street misfired. Analysts had been cutting profit estimates throughout the first quarter, and by early April, the number of revisions had reached levels usually seen during times of economic duress. Four weeks later, S&P 500 firms had delivered earnings growth double what was expected, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show. 'There are two things you're trying to forecast: one is earnings and the other is the multiple,' said Parker, who has revised his profit forecast three times since April. 'This year, we're unsure of the earnings trajectory even more than normal.' No First-Mover Advantage Former Citi strategist and industry veteran Robert Buckland said Wall Street prognosticators should've shown more resolve in their predictions. Their mistake was taking Trump at his word on the level of tariffs. 'Most strategists came into the year thinking 'take Trump seriously, not literally,' but they didn't stick to their guns and they did take him literally. And that's what got them into trouble,' said Buckland, who served as Citi's chief global equity strategist until 2023. 'I would've gone quiet a bit,' Buckland said. 'When you get a big move like this, there's no first-mover advantage in my experience. It's not really about getting it wrong, it's about what you do when you get it wrong.' One strategist who did hold steady to his optimistic target is Wells Fargo Securities LLC's Christopher Harvey. The bank's head of equity strategy remains Wall Street's biggest bull with his projection that the S&P 500 will rally 19% over the year. At a time when his peers were racing to slash targets in May, Harvey — correctly — expected the White House to take an easier stance on trade and said the market was past peak uncertainty. His prediction proved right, with the Cboe Volatility Index trading well below a peak of 60 hit in early April. For others, though, the threat of Trump upending the world economic order proved too worrisome to disregard at the time. Global investors reflected that panic, slashing exposure to US equities by the most on record in March, according to a Bank of America Corp. survey. At Ned Davis Research, chief US equity strategist Ed Clissold called forecasting a 'necessary evil.' 'President Eisenhower once said, 'In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable,'' Clissold said. 'We have a similar attitude when it comes to our forecasts — they are helpful thought processes, but we recognize they will need to be adjusted throughout the forecast period.' --With assistance from Michael Msika and Lu Wang. Thailand's Changing Cannabis Rules Leave Farmers in a Tough Spot The New Third Rail in Silicon Valley: Investing in Chinese AI 'The Turbulence Is Brutal': Four Shark Tank Businesses on Tariffs 'Our Goal Is to Get Their Money': Inside a Firm Charged With Scamming Writers for Millions Will Trade War Make South India the Next Manufacturing Hub? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
