Latest news with #KotakAMC
Time of India
9 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
Tariff tantrums: Let us hope for the best but prepare for the worst, says Nilesh Shah
Nilesh Shah of Kotak AMC highlights India's large trade deficit. He suggests using it to negotiate better export terms. Focus should be on strengthening the domestic economy through tax reforms and ease of business. Self-reliance in technology is also crucial. The government is working on solutions. Future earnings will drive stock performance. Some sectors are expected to outperform others. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads , MD,, says India faces a significant trade deficit, second only to America, exceeding $250 billion. The focus should be on leveraging this deficit to redirect exports and utilize spending on travel and education to open up markets. Stimulating the domestic economy through tax cuts, GST rationalization, and ease of doing business is crucial, alongside achieving self-reliance in technology and R& will be lots of events and markets will move in line with them. But as things stand today, at a 50% tariff, it is a trade embargo. Our companies in sectors like textiles, chemicals, auto components, and aquaculture will have to find markets other than American markets. I just hope and pray that India leverages its own trade America, the second largest goods deficit in the world is from India. We have more than $250 billion plus trade deficit. By giving access to our domestic market, we should seek opening up of local markets for Indian products and we must support companies in this sector so that they can survive this 50% tariff imposition. At the same time, all the events which you mention obviously shows that the government is trying to work around it. Let us hope for the best but prepare for the Peshwa Bajirao mentioned, strike at the root of the tree and branches will fall. Let us focus on the economy. The market will take care of itself. FPIs also will be taken care of by focusing on the economy. In the economy, we have to ensure that we leverage the second largest trade deficit in the world of more than $250 billion plus to ensure that we can divert our exports from goods where America is levying tariffs to other you run a $250 billion plus deficit, it should be possible. Second, we are also one of the largest spenders of travel and education. 1.7 million Indians travelled to America. 2.6 crore people travelled abroad. We need to leverage our spending on travel, on education, on goods deficit, on giving access to American companies in the Indian market for opening up markets for our second obviously is to stimulate our domestic economy. The government has taken steps through income tax cuts. There is potential GST rationalisation as well as petrol-diesel price cuts are probably on the anvil. There is the 8th Pay Commission and there is also a reduction in interest rates. Now we must accelerate the ease of doing business so that the domestic economy is as the prime minister mentioned in Bangalore, we must focus on creating independence in technology. Today we are dependent on the world for R&D and innovation. We must ensure that we become atmanirbhar in R&D and in technology. It is not going to happen in a hurry, but we must have a road map. If we take care of the economy which is the root cause of everything, then markets and FPIs will be taken care of on its conventional wisdom suggests that stocks are slaves of earning power, do remember that returns are also based on valuation. You could see 100% earnings growth and valuation derating will generate no return. So, we must ensure that not only our earnings grow but our premium valuation, which is one of the highest in emerging markets, continues to sustain. If earnings grow and valuation gets derated, then there will be no return for this point of time, the June 25 quarterly results are more or less in line with the expectation. Of course, from double digit earnings growth, it has come down to high single digit. But 7-8% earnings growth is not bad. Within overall earnings growth for the market, there are sectors which have done well. There are sectors that have disappointed. But FY26 is a year of consolidation. We should be looking at earnings of Nifty EPS somewhere around Rs 1,100 to Rs 1, in the second half, monsoon and consumption boost be revived? As of today, we have not heard that in commentary from corporates, but who knows, the festival season can bring cheer. The focus will be on FY27 earnings that can move into double digit and a lot will depend upon how the situation evolves.
Economic Times
9 hours ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Tariff tantrums: Let us hope for the best but prepare for the worst, says Nilesh Shah
Nilesh Shah of Kotak AMC highlights India's large trade deficit. He suggests using it to negotiate better export terms. Focus should be on strengthening the domestic economy through tax reforms and ease of business. Self-reliance in technology is also crucial. The government is working on solutions. Future earnings will drive stock performance. Some sectors are expected to outperform others. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads , MD,, says India faces a significant trade deficit, second only to America, exceeding $250 billion. The focus should be on leveraging this deficit to redirect exports and utilize spending on travel and education to open up markets. Stimulating the domestic economy through tax cuts, GST rationalization, and ease of doing business is crucial, alongside achieving self-reliance in technology and R& will be lots of events and markets will move in line with them. But as things stand today, at a 50% tariff, it is a trade embargo. Our companies in sectors like textiles, chemicals, auto components, and aquaculture will have to find markets other than American markets. I just hope and pray that India leverages its own trade America, the second largest goods deficit in the world is from India. We have more than $250 billion plus trade deficit. By giving access to our domestic market, we should seek opening up of local markets for Indian products and we must support companies in this sector so that they can survive this 50% tariff imposition. At the same time, all the events which you mention obviously shows that the government is trying to work around it. Let us hope for the best but prepare for the Peshwa Bajirao mentioned, strike at the root of the tree and branches will fall. Let us focus on the economy. The market will take care of itself. FPIs also will be taken care of by focusing on the economy. In the economy, we have to ensure that we leverage the second largest trade deficit in the world of more than $250 billion plus to ensure that we can divert our exports from goods where America is levying tariffs to other you run a $250 billion plus deficit, it should be possible. Second, we are also one of the largest spenders of travel and education. 1.7 million Indians travelled to America. 2.6 crore people travelled abroad. We need to leverage our spending on travel, on education, on goods deficit, on giving access to American companies in the Indian market for opening up markets for our second obviously is to stimulate our domestic economy. The government has taken steps through income tax cuts. There is potential GST rationalisation as well as petrol-diesel price cuts are probably on the anvil. There is the 8th Pay Commission and there is also a reduction in interest rates. Now we must accelerate the ease of doing business so that the domestic economy is as the prime minister mentioned in Bangalore, we must focus on creating independence in technology. Today we are dependent on the world for R&D and innovation. We must ensure that we become atmanirbhar in R&D and in technology. It is not going to happen in a hurry, but we must have a road map. If we take care of the economy which is the root cause of everything, then markets and FPIs will be taken care of on its conventional wisdom suggests that stocks are slaves of earning power, do remember that returns are also based on valuation. You could see 100% earnings growth and valuation derating will generate no return. So, we must ensure that not only our earnings grow but our premium valuation, which is one of the highest in emerging markets, continues to sustain. If earnings grow and valuation gets derated, then there will be no return for this point of time, the June 25 quarterly results are more or less in line with the expectation. Of course, from double digit earnings growth, it has come down to high single digit. But 7-8% earnings growth is not bad. Within overall earnings growth for the market, there are sectors which have done well. There are sectors that have disappointed. But FY26 is a year of consolidation. We should be looking at earnings of Nifty EPS somewhere around Rs 1,100 to Rs 1, in the second half, monsoon and consumption boost be revived? As of today, we have not heard that in commentary from corporates, but who knows, the festival season can bring cheer. The focus will be on FY27 earnings that can move into double digit and a lot will depend upon how the situation evolves.
Time of India
11-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Investors' pour Rs 47,000 crore in midcap & smallcap mutual funds in H1 CY25. What are they really chasing?
Midcap and smallcap mutual funds attract significant investor interest. These funds received Rs 47,000 crore in the first half of the year. Experts advise caution due to high valuations. They suggest a longer investment horizon. Investors should also prepare for potential volatility. A staggered investment approach is recommended. Focus on long-term asset allocation and risk profile is crucial. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads With investors' showing clear preference for midcap and smallcap mutual funds by pouring Rs 47,000 crore in the first half of the current calendar year and the categories offering good returns , market experts are of the view that these inflows have been driven by higher trailing returns in recent years, and the fear of missing out (FOMO) may also be pushing investors to chase past performance 'These returns may not always be backed by sustainable earnings growth and other fundamentals of the underlying companies and thus investors may need to be cautious. Also, past returns can result in mis-selling and pushing such funds easily to retail investors,' Vishal Dhawan, CEO, Plan Ahead Wealth Advisors, a wealth management firm in Mumbai told this as a concern, Dhawan mentioned that the current valuations in mid and small caps are well above historical averages, leaving little margin for error if earnings disappoint and also, based on trailing returns investors may enter with high return expectations, only to be disappointed if the segment underperforms or the first half of the current calendar year, mid cap funds received a total inflow of Rs 21,870 crore whereas small cap funds received an inflow of Rs 24,774 crore in the same expert cautions investors that they should invest in mid and small caps only with a slightly longer-term horizon compared to largecaps and also be ready with slightly higher volatility given that these segments are trading at a higher valuation.'We are not negative on mid and smallcaps. So, we are just saying that if you are coming into mid and smallcap strategies, please do come with a slightly longer-term horizon compared to largecaps and also be ready with slightly higher volatility given that they are trading at a higher valuation and that is what our view has been,' Harsha Upadhyaya, CIO-Equity, Kotak AMC told the categories are currently trading at a higher valuation and are receiving heavy inflows, Dhawan mentioned that investors often fall prey to herd mentality, chasing recent winners like small and mid-cap funds assuming past returns will be replicated in the future, the current forward valuations in the small and mid-cap space are still significantly above their long-term averages, therefore this space lacks valuation comfort, and these segments are more volatile and sensitive to earnings disappointments or any weak on one's risk appetite and investment horizon, allocation to small and mid-cap funds can range between 10% to 30% of the portfolio and the large-cap segment offers more reasonable valuations currently and can be a major part of the portfolio providing stability and downside protection, is what Dhawan midcap and smallcap funds have been on the lower side of the return chart in the current calendar year so far (till June 30) but since April's low, mid cap funds have gained 20% and small caps have gained nearly 21%.On April 7 the benchmark index was at the level of 73,137, the lowest in the current financial year so looking at the recent inflow trend, returns offered, and recent valuations in the mid cap and small cap categories, Dhawan recommends investors that a staggered investment approach through SIP or STP is wiser than a selective exposure to mid and smallcap funds can still be beneficial for long-term goals, it's crucial to limit allocation based on risk profile and focus on consistent, disciplined investing rather than timing the market and selective allocation, backed by earnings visibility and reasonable valuations, may be key to navigating this space wisely, Dhawan investors tend to follow the inflow trend and invest where others are investing and putting their money and the categories which are delivering high returns, which deviates them from their asset allocation and risk profile. Many experts always advise choosing a fund based on their risk appetite, investment horizon and goals and follow the addition to this, Dhawan recommends that chasing inflow trends is never a wise strategy, such moves are often driven by FOMO, leading investors to enter at peak valuations and see downsides during corrections and inflows are not a reliable indicator for making investment adds that focusing on the long-term asset allocation and risk profile ensures that the portfolio is aligned with the goals and capacity to handle volatility.'Staying disciplined avoids emotional, peer driven decisions and encourages better rebalancing and long-term wealth creation. A diversified approach offers far more stability than trend-chasing, especially in uncertain market phases,' Dhawan analysing the recent flow of returns and categories receiving inflows, Dhawan is of the opinion that the outlook for mid and small-cap funds remains cautious and the future performance will be driven by earnings growth of the underlying businesses, which will indicate whether the current high valuations are justified by actual earnings and business growth.'While long-term structural tailwinds remain fine, near-term corrections cannot be ruled out due to elevated valuations and recent developments such as geopolitical tensions, trade tariffs, and Wars,' he adds.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
10-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Get into mid and smallcaps with a slightly longer-term horizon compared to largecaps: Harsha Upadhyaya
Harsha Upadhyaya , CIO-Equity, Kotak AMC , says the investment strategy will be more stock-specific and bottom-up, with potentially increased large-cap positions due to relative valuations. While not negative on mid and small-caps, investors should have a longer-term horizon and be prepared for higher volatility . This is because mid and small-caps are trading at higher valuations compared to large-caps. On the broader end of the market, are you liking any particular sectors or stocks? Do you believe that now is the time for the largecaps to take the lead ahead for the markets or do you believe that there is some value on the broader end? Harsha Upadhyaya: The broader end continues to be at a valuation level which is higher than historical levels and higher than largecaps for quite some time now. Although, we did see more volatility in that bucket maybe at the beginning of the calendar year, but post that, we have seen the broader end doing much better than largecaps. So, to that extent, from a pure valuation perspective, there is no sectoral pick in that end of the market. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Join new Free to Play WWII MMO War Thunder War Thunder Play Now Undo We would be more stock specific and bottom-up in terms of our evaluation and wherever we can take slightly higher largecap positions in some of the funds that we have been doing. That is broadly in view of the relative valuations that are there between largecaps and non-largecaps. Otherwise, we are not negative on mid and smallcaps . So, if you are coming into mid and smallcap strategies, please come with a slightly longer-term horizon compared to largecaps and also be ready with slightly higher volatility given that they are trading at a higher valuation and that is what our view has been. Let us look at the current setup where inflation is down, crude is down, dollar is down, and yields are also down. These are classic indicators that macro trade should do well. So, are we in for a macro outperformance which is banks, NBFCs, interest rate sensitives? Harsha Upadhyaya: Looks like that and financials have been outperforming for the last couple of quarters, but not by a wide margin. We may not have seen very large absolute numbers from that portion of the market simply because markets have gone nowhere. But clearly, there has been an outperformance and we believe that segment will continue to do well and over a period of time, that outperformance will increase and become more visible given that we expect improvement in credit growth over the next 12 to 18 months. I was going through your fact sheet and it is quite intriguing to know that the way to play defence according to you is via aerospace. What is it that you find interesting about this pocket and if you can identify some themes or companies within that? Harsha Upadhyaya: We have been very positive on defence for quite some time now and we started building our positions when the government started to focus on indigenization and also larger investments continue to happen into defence. Given that the geopolitical issues are so significant and most of the economies, most of the regions are looking to spend more on defence, clearly we will continue to see higher level of investments going into defence not just in India, but also in other countries. Live Events You Might Also Like: Overweight on domestic businesses; modest earnings growth pickup likely in H2: Harsha Upadhyaya For Indian defence manufacturers, the opportunity is two-fold; one, they can continue to cater to Indian demand and also at some point of time, there will be export opportunities and that is something that we have been very keenly watching. While valuations are on the higher side, we are not increasing our position at this point of time but everything that is focused on aerospace, electronics, etc, and also explosives, which is going to be needed across the board whenever there is a geopolitical issue and a war, are the segments within defence where we have positions and continue to believe that over the medium to long term, this will continue to outperform; However, in the short term, the valuations are on the higher side and one needs to have a little bit of caution. The earning season is just around the corner. We are right there. What are you expecting for earnings this time around? Do you believe that we could do better than last quarter because expectations this time around too are rather tempered? Harsha Upadhyaya : It is unlikely to be anything very exciting, but maybe marginally better than the fourth quarter of last financial year is what we can expect. We believe that in the first two quarters of this financial year, we will be somewhere in the mid to high single digit in terms of earnings growth on Nifty basket and eventually in the second half, they should improve to slightly better numbers and move into double digits. Thereby the overall full year may see 10-11% year-on-year growth. If you are sequentially looking at it, maybe there will be slightly better numbers this quarter, but I do not think that is going to excite the markets in a big way. In the light of no expectations from the earning season, a lot of paper supply, can we say that we should expect a downward bias now? In the next two quarters, there are no triggers, and everyone knows which way inflation is moving, which way tariffs are moving. If demand is coming back from FIIs, supply is coming from promoters. Are we in for a nothing sort of a market or a very low return patch now? Harsha Upadhyaya : Frankly, the last six months have also been more of that nature and that could continue for another couple of quarters. Once there is a little bit of confidence on the earnings trend improving or credit growth improving, that is probably when you will see more legs for the market. Having said that, market volumes at this point of time have not been significant. So, to that extent, any of the liquidity events can drive markets one way or the other, and that is something one needs to keep in mind. You Might Also Like: Betting on consumption? Put 70-75% in discretionary & 20-30% in staples: Gurmeet Chadha
Mint
05-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Stock market this week: Top gainers and losers you should watch closely
India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections for June 2025 stood at an impressive ₹ 1.85 lakh crore, marking a 6.2% year-on-year growth and highlighting the continued strength and resilience of the Indian economy. This consistent increase in GST revenue reflects robust business activity, healthy consumer demand, and growing tax compliance across sectors. Strong collections support the government's fiscal plans and reinforce confidence in India's formal economy. The GST system continues to mature, contributing significantly to India's overall revenue framework while simplifying tax structures and improving transparency. Monthly revenue above ₹ 1.80 lakh crore for June indicates sustained momentum in manufacturing, services, and consumption-led sectors. This steady performance showcases the government's ongoing efforts to streamline tax administration and strengthen compliance, ultimately aiding infrastructure development and public welfare initiatives. The positive trend in GST collections reinforces optimism about India's economic outlook and growth trajectory in the months ahead. The Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Crizac Limited received an overwhelming response from investors, being oversubscribed by an impressive 62.89 times. This strong demand reflects investor confidence in the company's growth potential, business fundamentals, and long-term vision. The enthusiastic participation was witnessed across all investor categories, including retail, institutional, and non-institutional buyers, showcasing broad-based interest in the offering. Such high subscription levels highlight Crizac Limited's strong market appeal and the positive sentiment surrounding its public debut. The company's strategic positioning, innovative offerings, and track record in its sector have attracted attention from investors looking for value and future growth. The success of this IPO not only reflects optimism in the company's prospects but also reinforces the strength and vibrancy of India's capital markets. Crizac Limited's journey as a listed entity is now set to begin on a promising note, backed by a strong base of supportive stakeholders. Kotak AMC, 360 One AMC, HDFC AMC, and ICICI AMC have introduced exciting new fund offerings (NFOs), providing investors with diversified opportunities aligned with various financial goals. Kotak AMC has launched the Kotak Nifty AAA Bond Financial Services Mar 2028 Index Growth Direct Plan, offering exposure to high-rated financial sector bonds with a defined maturity, ideal for conservative investors seeking stable returns. 360 One AMC brings the 360 One Overnight Growth Direct Plan, a low-risk option for short-term parking of funds with overnight liquidity benefits. HDFC AMC introduces the HDFC Innovation Growth Direct Plan, focusing on innovation-driven companies with long-term growth potential, perfect for investors looking to tap into forward-looking sectors. Meanwhile, ICICI AMC offers the ICICI Prudential Nifty Private Bank Index Growth Direct Plan, allowing investors to gain targeted exposure to India's leading private banks. These NFOs present diverse choices across debt, innovation, and sector-based themes, catering to various investment preferences. Index Returns Best Performers Worst Performers Bought and Sold Most Watchlisted Kuvera is a free direct mutual fund investing platform. Unless otherwise stated data sourced from BSE, NSE and kuvera.
