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Time of India
21-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
ITC Q4 Preview: Profit may fall 1% YoY; Cigarettes, agri to drive revenue growth
Diversified conglomerate ITC is expected to post moderate revenue growth, led primarily by its cigarettes and agri businesses. According to an average estimate of five brokerages, revenue is seen rising 2 per cent year-on-year (YoY). The same estimates revealed that profit is likely to fall 1 per cent . Cigarette revenue is projected to rise by about 7 per cent year-on-year, driven by 4.5 per cent volume growth. The company may see a decline of 195 basis points in cigarette EBIT margins this quarter, but easing tobacco prices could support a recovery in coming quarters. The agri business is anticipated to deliver strong double-digit growth, benefiting from higher commodity prices, especially leaf tobacco. In contrast, the FMCG segment is expected to post 4.5 per cent revenue growth, with muted profitability due to raw material inflation in key inputs like edible oil, wheat, and potatoes. The paperboard segment may remain subdued with modest revenue growth of 3.7 per cent , facing headwinds from weak demand, lower realizations, and competition from low-cost Chinese imports. EBIT margins here are expected to hover around 10 per cent , suggesting they may have bottomed out. Overall, excluding the recently demerged hotels business, ITC's like-for-like gross sales are estimated to grow around 6.5 per cent YoY, while EBIT could decline slightly by 0.5 per cent , reflecting margin pressures across key business segments. Here's what brokerages expect from ITC Q4: Antique broking ITC's revenue is likely to be driven by cigarettes and the agri business. Cigarette revenue/ EBIT to grow 7 per cent / 4 per cent driven by ~3 per cent volume growth. FMCG business to report 2 per cent growth, while profitability would be muted due to rise in commodity prices. The agri business should report strong double digit growth in revenue, with profitability benefiting from an increase in prices of leaf tobacco and other agri commodities. Paper performance could be muted. Kotak Equities We estimate cigarette volume growth at 4.5 per cent YoY, translating into a 7 per cent growth in gross cigarette sales. We expect cigarette EBIT growth at 3.5 per cent YoY, with a 195 bps YoY decline in EBIT margin, due to some inflation in leaf tobacco and other inputs (leaf tobacco prices are expected to ease and should aid margin recovery by 2Q/3QFY26). Motilal Oswal The cigarette business is expected to show stable volumes and pricing, with the portfolio continuing to grow, aided by improvements in the product mix. We model 4.5 per cent volume growth in the business in 4QFY25. We expect 6 per cent YoY sales growth in the cigarette business and 2 per cent YoY sales growth in the FMCG business. The FMCG business continues to see pressure in urban demand. The paper segment remained weak as an influx of cheap Chinese paper has prompted regional players to offer more discounts to customers. The agriculture segment performed well during the quarter.
Time of India
23-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Nestle Q4 Preview: PAT may fall 5% YoY as high costs, subdued demand hurt
Here's what analysts expect from Q4: Live Events Kotak Equities Nuvama Motilal Oswal (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Leading consumer brand Nestle will likely see mid-single digit revenue growth , driven by double-digit growth in beverages. However, profitability is likely to be muted. The growth for the company continues to be impacted by muted urban demand and elevated commodity prices, partly buoyed by some benefit in the Maggi portfolio due to Maha Kumbh profit for the fourth quarter is seen falling 5% year-on-year (YoY), according to an average estimate of six brokerages. On the flip side, revenue may grow 5%.Analysts forecast strong beverage business performance on the back of pricing-led growth in coffee. However, the dairy business remained under margins are likely to contract by 131 bps YoY while higher A&P spends would lead to EBITDA margin contraction by 113 bps expect 5.4% YoY revenue growth, led by 5.3% YoY growth in domestic/exports markets. We expect volume (tonnage) growth at 3%, versus 2% in 3Q. The price mix growth is led by price hikes in chocolates, coffee and margin could contract 185 bps YoY to 55%, impacted by sharp inflation (in the range of 50-70% YoY) in coffee, cocoa and edible oils. We expect the EBITDA margin to also decline 190 bps YoY to 23.5%. Overall, we expect the EBITDA to decline 2.4% YoY, but the PAT decline could be higher due to lower other income (lower cash balance after investment of Rs7 bn in JV with Dr Reddy's).We reckon consolidated revenue to grow 5% YoY. Domestic sales are likely to grow 5-6% YoY, while domestic volumes will grow 3% YoY. Overall demand trends have improved sequentially given marginal recovery in urban areas - however slowdown still revenue likely to grow 7% YoY. We expect gradual price hikes of 2% in Q4FY25 (1% in Q3FY25; 4% in Q4FY24) mainly led by coffee but certain price hikes seen across portfolios (eg – in Maggi Noodles recently increased the price of 70 gm pack from Rs 14 to Rs 15).We reckon EBITDA to grow 2.6% YoY owing to the high base. Given cocoa, coffee and palm oil cost remains inflationary, Gross/EBITDA margin is likely to decline 20bp YoY to 57%.We expect sales growth of 5% YoY. However, while demand recovery is underway, a higher dependency on urban markets may weigh on NEST volumes. The company has likely implemented a price hike in response to rising commodity model moderation in GP (-100 bps) and EBITDA margins (190bp), impacted by a sharp rise in coffee and edible oil focuses on expanding its distribution reach, premiumization, and innovations.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
23-04-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Bajaj Housing Finance to announce Q4 results today. Here's what to expect
Kotak Equities estimates profit growth to be as high as 61% to Rs 613 crore, while net interest income (NII) is seen at 34% to Rs 844 crore. Bajaj Housing Finance is expected to announce strong Q4 results, with Kotak Equities projecting a 61% profit surge to ₹613 crore and a 34% NII increase to ₹844 crore. AUM growth is anticipated to be around 5.6% QoQ, while NIM is expected to remain stable. Ventura suggests a positive uptrend for Bajaj Housing stock, setting a target of ₹170. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Leading NBFC Bajaj Housing Finance will report its fourth quarter results on Wednesday and the company is likely to report strong earnings going by analyst Equities estimates profit growth to be as high as 61% to Rs 613 crore, while net interest income (NII) is seen at 34% to Rs 844 pre-provision profit for the quarter is estimated at Rs 761 crore, which is a 45% increase from the previous year period."Bajaj Housing will likely report 5.6% QoQ AUM growth in 4QFY25 in line with 5.6-6.3% reported in the previous four quarters. NIM will likely remain stable QoQ to 3.4% as cost of borrowing peaks out," the brokerage expense growth will likely remain moderate at 8% YoY, leading to 12 bps YoY decline in cost-to-AUM ratio to 0.75% in 4QFY25. "We pen down credit cost of 12 bps (13 bps in 3QFY25 and 16 bps in (4QFY24)," Kotak the preceding December quarter, the company reported 25% YoY growth in its profit after tax (PAT) at Rs 548 crore, while net interest income rose 25% YoY to Rs 806 of Bajaj Housing had a steep fall from Rs 188 in September last year and made a low of Rs 103 in Jan this year. However, the stock has later recover Rs 128 on continuous buying but faced profit booking and made a higher bottom formation at Rs 109 in AprilAnalysts say the stock recently crossed the intermediate high of 128 and reached a high of 131. It has given a Channel breakout post consolidation zone forming higher bottoms at 105 and 109 and is trading above all averages after a long time."Indicators like MACD & ADX suggest a firm Positive Uptrend. Target of 170 is expected & further addition is suggested at lower support levels at (124-120)-117-(113-111) in case of intermediate fall. Stop loss in the trade should be kept at 108," recommended Housing stock rose about 4% year-to-date.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
