Latest news with #KristianCoatesUlrichsen
DW
06-08-2025
- Politics
- DW
Why is Saudi Arabia leading push for Palestinian statehood? – DW – 08/06/2025
Saudi Arabia is helping organize an international push to recognize Palestinian statehood. Is the oil-rich Gulf state acting for humanitarian reasons or due to self-interested foreign policy? Admirers are calling it a "masterclass in diplomacy" that offers a true chance for peace in the Middle East. Critics say it is a selfish move, a "publicity stunt" to help burnish a country's international image more often in the headlines for human rights abuses. So why is Saudi Arabia leading the charge for international recognition of a Palestinian state? The current Saudi push for more countries to recognize Palestinian statehood actually began around a year ago. In September 2024, Saudi Arabia, together with Norway, announced the launch of a "Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution" and held the first two meetings in Riyadh. In December 2024, the United Nations General Assembly voted to confirm again that most countries in the world believe the answer to problems between Israel and the Palestinian Territories is a two-state solution. Last week, Saudi Arabia and France chaired a conference on the topic. During and after the meeting, multiple countries — France, Canada, Malta, the UK and Australia — announced they would definitely be, or were very seriously thinking about, recognizing a Palestinian state. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video The meeting also resulted in a seven-page document, the "New York Declaration," signed by all member states of the Arab League, as well as the EU and around 17 other countries. The declaration outlines a phased path towards a two-state solution. It calls on Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that led the incursion into southern Israel on October 7, 2023, to disarm, release remaining Israeli hostages and give up leadership in Gaza. "We also condemn the attacks by Israel against civilians in Gaza and civilian infrastructure, siege and starvation, which have resulted in a devastating humanitarian catastrophe," the signatories said. The fact that all 22 members of the Arab League signed the declaration was seen as a diplomatic breakthrough. It is the first time many have censured Hamas so publicly. And Saudi Arabia, together with France, has been credited with helping to make it all happen. "Given Saudi Arabia's position within the Arab and Islamic world, and the kingdom's stewardship of [sacred religious sites] Mecca and Medina, anything Saudi Arabia does carries weight," Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, explained. Before the October 2023 Hamas attacks and the ensuing Israeli military campaign, there was much talk of Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel. But if it did, it would do so without any regard to the cause of Palestinian statehood, long a serious obstacle between Israel and good relations with its neighbors. As a result, Saudi Arabia was often seen by locals in other Arab nations as a "traitor" to the Palestinian cause. This is why some critics have suggested that Saudi Arabia's recent moves at the UN are simply a way of combating that negative image in the Arab and Islamic world. But in fact, as Aziz Alghashian, a Saudi analyst with Washington-based think tank, the Gulf International Forum, wrote in the Cairo Review of Global Affairs, "one of the enduring misconceptions on this topic is the idea that Saudi willingness to normalize ties with Israel is something new — when it actually dates back to the late 1960s." Saudi Arabian plans for a two-state solution also go back decades, Coates Ulrichsen pointed out. In 2002, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah (who was crown prince at the time) proposed what is now known as the Arab Peace Initiative. At an Arab League summit in Beirut that same year, all the member states agreed to support the proposal, whichamong other things, says they would all recognize and normalize relations with Israel if Israel ended its occupation and agreed to establish a Palestinian state. Over time, the initiative was derailed for a number of reasons, among them disagreements about Palestinians' right to return to land taken from them by Israel, the Arab Spring which changed the focus of regional politics, and then the Abraham Accords, which saw several Arab states normalize with Israel in their own interests. "But for many years, the Arab Peace Initiative was the default Saudi position," Coates Ulrichsen said, a position that was reaffirmed as recently as 2020. "Now, the urgency of the situation in Gaza and the worsening violence in the West Bank likely means that the Saudis have calculated that they cannot stay silent in the face of such destruction and humanitarian suffering," he continued. In fact, last week's "New York Declaration" has already been described as a reboot of the 2002 Saudi-led Arab Peace say there are also other reasons why leading a push towards Palestinian statehood benefits Saudi Arabia. One obvious one is regional stability, crucial for Saudi Arabia to realize grand plans to diversify its economy away from oil. Saudi diplomacy also advances other foreign policy objectives. "Riyadh's leadership is part of a calculated Saudi repositioning," Arab-language media outlet Raseef22 argued in an op-ed last week. "Saudi Arabia has transformed the Arab Peace Initiative into a political lever with international relevance, forming an Arab-Islamic voting bloc, [giving it] influence in energy and maritime security negotiations with the West and, perhaps most importantly, consolidating its position in the post-[Gaza]-war architecture." It is too early to tell, Coates Ulrichsen says. "But the fact that the UK and Canada have both come out with statements of conditional recognition of Palestine suggests the Saudi-French approach is moving the needle." After last week's meeting in New York, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan called on more UN member states to support the "New York Declaration" before the next UN General Assembly in early September. There is a good chance many might because it offers a way out, Faisal J. Abbas, a regular commentator on Saudi topics and the editor-in-chief of the English language daily Arab News, wrote for US website, Semafor, last week. "For Washington, the Saudi-French diplomatic initiative fits within American strategic interests and offers a route out of perpetual conflict. It could help stabilize the region, reducing the need for US military involvement," he argued. "And it offers Israel long-term security guarantees, if it's willing to abandon demands from its far right to annex the West Bank, alongside other maximalist positions." The Saudi-French initiative still faces considerable opposition from Israel and its ally, the US. Neither Israel nor the US participated in the meeting and both have criticized it. The Trump administration called it a "publicity stunt," and Israel's ambassador to the UN complained that "conference organizers are engaging in discussions and plenaries that are disconnected from reality."To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
Arab News
13-06-2025
- Sport
- Arab News
Saudi Arabia a ‘pivotal force' in reshaping world football and sport, says US expert
LONDON: Saudi Arabia is playing a central role in transforming global football and wider sport, according to Middle East expert Kristian Coates Ulrichsen of the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. For the latest updates, follow us @ArabNewsSport Speaking to the Saudi Press Agency following the release of his new book 'Kingdom of Football: Saudi Arabia and the Remaking of World Soccer,' Ulrichsen said the Kingdom's rise in global sport is 'not a temporary shift but a broad transformation with political, economic, social, and cultural dimensions.' He continued: 'The Kingdom has undergone profound changes and has quickly and decisively entered the global sports arena through club acquisitions, sponsorship of major tournaments, and hosting high-profile events, notably the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2034.' Ulrichsen noted the country's long footballing heritage, with top-tier clubs approaching their centenary milestones and the national team having reached five consecutive AFC Asian Cup finals. He also highlighted Saudi clubs' strong record in continental competitions since the early 2000s. In the book, he stresses that sport, entertainment, and tourism form 'integral pillars of Vision 2030 and (are) essential to positioning Saudi Arabia as a global destination' in the coming years. 'Saudi Arabia's engagement with sports has generated global impact across football, boxing, Formula 1, and even cricket, tennis, and e-sports,' he added. 'These sectors are expected to dominate international discussions throughout the next decade leading up to 2034.'
Yahoo
28-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Saudi Arabia's Dreams of a Sustainable Economy Are Now Drowning in Oil
If you blinked, you may have missed the way Saudi Arabia's utopian economic diversification program known as Saudi Vision 2030 has been unofficially rebranded 'Vision 2034,' named for the year Saudi Arabia will host the World Cup. Greenwashing—a term for companies or organizations portraying themselves as more sustainable than they really are—is on its way out, and 'sportswashing' is in. As the price of oil plummets and the international community adjusts to American leadership that couldn't care less about climate or the environment, the 2017-era vision of an environmentally conscious new Saudi Arabia is looking like a pipe dream. Instead of promising the world it's turning into a cross between Silicon Valley and the luxury resort space station from the movie The Fifth Element, the desert kingdom seems to be looking at expanded oil production and a pivot to plastic. 'You won't see a sudden press conference in the ad where they say, well, we've made a mistake,' Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute told me, when I asked about the Vision 2030 goals. 'But it will be made obvious that these are being trimmed down, scaled back.' According to F. Gregory Gause, visiting fellow at the Middle East Institute, Saudi Vision 2030 was conceived as 'an effort to kickstart some changes in the economy, and I think that in that sense it's been a success. Are they going to get to the vision? No, they're not.' Ellen Wald, author of Saudi, Inc., noticed positive results from Vision 2030—mostly visible from inside the country. 'There have been some changes, particularly in the way that the ministries have functioned.' It has also gotten the Saudi population excited about the future, she said, 'especially the young population.' But if you noticed outlandish levels of hype about a green future kicking off in Saudi Arabia you weren't hallucinating. For instance, back in 2016, before he was officially crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman said amid Vision 2030's announcement 'I think in 2020 we can live without oil.' Now it's 2025, and Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members are in the process of unwinding voluntary oil production cuts that have been in place since October of 2022—adding a planned 411,000 barrels per day starting in May. At first glance, Saudi Arabia's latest plan for reshaping global oil markets looks a little like economic self-harm. 'Saudi Arabia's next move could hit oil prices hard,' the title of an article on fretted earlier this month. Indeed, this increase has been depressing price predictions on a barrel of oil—hitting Saudi Arabia right in a major pain point at a time when it needs money. The IMF says that as Saudi Arabia continues to throw Vision 2030 money around, it should expect to double its budget deficit if oil price trends continue. Saudi Arabia needed oil to trade at $90 a barrel to break even, and it's been trading in the 60s instead. Wald, however, believes a focus on the break-even price of oil paints a deceptive picture. 'Saudi Arabia can tolerate prices that would cripple its neighbors,' she said, noting that Aramco, can produce oil for under $6 a barrel, as compared to fracking operations in the U.S. that are far more expensive. 'They can also access debt, and they've been very successfully doing that,' she added of Saudi operations. The nation is four-and-a-half years from the theoretical finish line for Saudi Vision 2030. Vision 2030's marquee project, the famously quixotic, hi-tech eco-oasis of NEOM—the one that's supposed to feature a 110-mile horizontal skyscraper called 'The Line'—axed its CEO last year due to setbacks and delays, and at long last named a permanent replacement earlier this week. For what it's worth, NEOM does have residents, but even the ones who seem content there appear to mostly spend their time getting shuttled and golf-carted around a shadeless collection of dorm buildings in one of the world's hottest deserts—just about the furthest possible thing from the shimmering, carbon-neutral, car-free indoor megacity that was promised. To some, Saudi Arabia's pivot seems like a calculated and deliberate recalibration. 'Most of the recent OPEC+ maneuvering is clearly, I think, based with the White House in mind,' said Coates Ulrichsen. And as of this writing the current occupant of the White House has cheap oil on his mind. 'Gas and grocery prices are WAY DOWN, just like I said they would be,' President Trump wrote Thursday on Truth Social. The previous day his Interior Department rolled out 'emergency permitting procedures' aimed at cutting red tape in the way of oil and gas extraction on federal land. And despite a busy month of travel during which he must travel to Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis—and might, he says, swing by Russia to chat with Vladimir Putin—he will definitely find time to drop by Saudi Arabia. Trump has been 'agitating for $50 oil ahead of the summer driving season in the U.S.,' Jim Krane, research fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute told me. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia appears to be positioning itself to benefit from relatively mild Trump tariffs. According to a story this week from Digitimes Asia, Lenovo, HP, and Dell are suddenly moving forward with plans to manufacture PCs in Saudi Arabia—probably at least in part because Saudi Arabia's new U.S. tariffs are 10 percent, compared to China's 245 percent. In fairness, a manufacturing push is in keeping with some of the less flashy elements of Saudi Vision 2030. On the published list of strategic objectives for the program, 'localize promising manufacturing industries' is the second item. But despite PC manufacturers dipping their toes into Saudi Arabia with relatively minor projects, don't expect to see 'assembled in Jeddah' stamped on your iPhone anytime soon. Manufacturing titan Foxconn mulled a $9 billion plant in Saudi Arabia three years ago, but doesn't appear to have pulled the trigger. Instead, the kingdom's real potential manufacturing revolution may revolve around goods that are banal by comparison: petrochemical derivatives and plastics. The Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, which makes petrochemicals and plastics, has been, according to Coates Ulrichsen, 'one of the most successful examples of a Saudi diversification initiative.' He suggested that doubling down in this area would make more economic sense in a pinch than 'massive new experiments and creating futuristic cities.' And holding onto its plastic production revenue is clearly a priority. Late last year, 170 UN member countries held a conference in Busan, South Korea, attempting to form a binding treaty on reduction of plastic waste. According to accounts in The New York Times, the Saudi delegation slow-walked and obstructed the proceedings with unnecessary objections. No deal was made, which is certainly good news for a nation hoping to see its plastic manufacturing ramped up. 'The Saudis are making decisions based on their own self-interest, but any country does that,' said Ulrichsen. At the same time, they're quietly starting to 'acknowledge that the risk of over-promising is under-delivering.' With the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo handing your country propaganda victories by telling the world how much he loves living there, and a summer revenue spike setting you up for a short-term economic victory, who needs stories about a beautiful utopia? There are plenty of shiny objects here in the real world that can keep investors distracted from how small and sad the future has become.
