Latest news with #KyawHsanHlaing
Egypt Independent
03-05-2025
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
Myanmar's earthquake devastated the war-torn nation. For its reviled military leaders, it has brought opportunity
CNN — Earthquakes are devastating for those who have lost loved ones, homes and livelihoods, but for military dictators clinging to power, such disasters can also bring opportunity. Myanmar's military rulers have spent the past four years waging a brutal civil war across the Southeast Asian country, sending columns of troops on bloody rampages, torching and bombing villages, massacring residents, jailing opponents and forcing young men and women to join the army. The junta is headed by a widely reviled army chief who overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and installed himself as leader. But like with most aspiring strongmen, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing's rule is precarious. He and his cronies have been sanctioned and spurned internationally, the economy is in tatters, and his military is losing significant territory in a grinding, multi-front war against a determined resistance. By some accounts, he barely controls 30% of the country. So when a powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, killing more than 3,700 people and causing widespread devastation, the general moved rapidly to bolster his position with a rare plea for international help. 'Min Aung Hlaing is leveraging the earthquake for regional engagement and electoral legitimacy,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, a PhD student in political science at Cornell University. 'The humanitarian crisis gives him a pretext to open channels he'd long shut.' Those openings included a face-to-face meeting last month between the junta leader and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, which currently holds the rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The regional bloc had shunned high-level talks with Myanmar since the coup, to avoid legitimizing the junta. Following the meeting in the Thai capital Bangkok, Anwar said he had a 'frank and constructive discussion' with the general, focused on humanitarian assistance for quake-hit communities and the extension of a military-declared ceasefire to facilitate aid deliveries. 'For Min Aung Hlaing, securing even a veneer of regional legitimacy now lays political groundwork: He can argue 'Look, neighbors trust me enough to talk,' even as democratic leaders and exile groups remain excluded from the table,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing. Specter of elections Some say now is the time for countries to engage with Myanmar's military rulers, to push for dialogue and peace. Four years of war has ravaged the country; 3 million people have been displaced by the fighting and the earthquake has only deepened an already dire humanitarian crisis in which at least 20 million people need aid. 'The main concern is the humanitarian situation. Sometimes, when we have this kind of crisis, it's an opportunity for all the parties to try to come together, to think of the interests of the people… maybe it could lead to some kind of dialogue process,' said Sihasak Phuangketkeow, a former deputy foreign affairs minister of Thailand who has been part of his country's efforts to engage the State Administration Council, the junta's official name. In recent months, Min Aung Hlaing has enjoyed a series of diplomatic engagements. As bodies were still being pulled from the rubble of the quake, the general was shaking hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of a regional meeting in Bangkok. Rights groups and civil society organizations said his presence at the BIMSTEC summit amounted to the gathering lending legitimacy to a war criminal. Myanmar's Senior General Min Aung Hlaing meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 6th BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, Thailand on April 4, 2025. PIB/Anadolu/Getty Images India said its bilateral meeting, set up to facilitate disaster relief, provided an opportunity to push the junta for 'inclusive dialogue' and underline that there could be 'no military solution to the conflict.' That meeting came a month after Min Aung Hlaing's high-profile state visit to Russia to boost cooperation with President Vladimir Putin, his longtime ally and main arms supplier. Above all for the junta leader, domestic legitimacy is key in order to maintain his regime. And regional support for his planned elections, slated to be held later this year, is the first step in securing that. Since seizing power, Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly promised elections. But with most of the democratic camp in exile or jail, Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy dissolved, and the military's widespread repression of the people, such a vote would never be considered free or fair, observers say. Min Aung Hlaing's March invitation to election observers from Belarus – Europe's last dictatorship – appeared to underscore their point. 'We have to make it very clear that for the election to be credible, it has to have inclusive dialogue,' said Sihasak, who is now secretary-general of the Asian Peace and Reconciliation Council. 'It is not a blank check,' he added. 'It's an opportunity for us to engage, but not engage in a way that supports legitimacy, but to impress upon the regime that they have to also make concessions.' Stopping the violence Some observers say the junta cannot be trusted to make concessions, when the military's history is littered with false promises masking an unending stream of atrocities. Even as Malaysia's Anwar was touting the military's so-called ceasefire to help quake-hit communities, the junta was restricting aid and intensifying its deadly campaign with airstrikes in opposition areas that have reportedly killed dozens of civilians. Analysts warn that the military will use greater engagement as a pretext to normalize diplomatic ties and entrench its authoritarian rule. 'If you negotiate with the devil without red lines, that is complicity,' said Adelina Kamal, an independent analyst and member of the Southeast Asian Women Peace Mediators network. Kamal said the international community risks being 'deceived into the military's stage performance,' where elections would be 'an illusion of democratic transition.' In 2008, when parts of the country were ravaged by powerful Cyclone Nargis, the military regime at the time pushed ahead with a constitutional referendum that paved the way for a semi-civilian government but cemented the military's influence on the country's politics. With a new military-drafted constitution in place, the regime – called the State Peace and Development Council – held elections in 2010 widely regarded as a sham. A soldier from the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF) stands in front of houses destroyed by Burmese army artillery and airstrikes in Demoso, Myanmar on February 9, 2024. Thierry Falise/LightRocket/Getty Images Today's junta is 'taking a page from the SPDC's playbook to assert and retain its political role,' said Moe Thuzar, coordinator of the Myanmar studies program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 'The people of Myanmar have made it amply clear since 2021 about their mistrust in the military's statements about elections, and view elections in the current situation as potentially leading to more violence.' Those who have firsthand experience of that violence say actions speak louder than words. 'Talking to Min Aung Hlaing will not bring any political solution and satisfy what the majority of people want,' said Khun Bedu, chairman of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, which is fighting the military in the country's southeast. The Karen National Union, which has been fighting the military since independence from Britain more than 70 years ago, said inclusive dialogue cannot happen without first a ceasefire and the delivery of humanitarian assistance. 'Before all people can sit together and solve the problem, Min Aung Hlaing needs to stop all of the violence in the country. Without that we cannot accept any dialogue,' KNU spokesperson Saw Taw Nee told CNN. There is hope, however, from some quarters that progress could be made this year. Following his talks with the junta leader, Malaysia's Anwar also held a widely praised virtual meeting with Mahn Win Khaing Than, prime minister of the National Unity Government, in ASEAN's first public face-to-face with Myanmar's shadow administration of lawmakers deposed in the coup. The NUG, which considers itself the legitimate government of Myanmar, has repeatedly insisted on engaging all stakeholders to solve the crisis. 'I see 2025 as the year, with the election coming in and with this crisis, that we can either win the peace or we can lose the peace,' said Sihasak, the former Thai minister. To get there, international partners should 'tie any dialogue to verifiable steps' including 'genuine humanitarian corridors, release of political prisoners, and binding guarantees of inclusive talks,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing at Cornell. 'Otherwise, engagement simply extends the junta's lifeline at the expense of the Burmese people's aspirations for democracy,' he said.
Yahoo
03-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Myanmar's earthquake devastated the war-torn nation. For its reviled military leaders, it has brought opportunity
Earthquakes are devastating for those who have lost loved ones, homes and livelihoods, but for military dictators clinging to power, such disasters can also bring opportunity. Myanmar's military rulers have spent the past four years waging a brutal civil war across the Southeast Asian country, sending columns of troops on bloody rampages, torching and bombing villages, massacring residents, jailing opponents and forcing young men and women to join the army. The junta is headed by a widely reviled army chief who overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and installed himself as leader. But like with most aspiring strongmen, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing's rule is precarious. He and his cronies have been sanctioned and spurned internationally, the economy is in tatters, and his military is losing significant territory in a grinding, multi-front war against a determined resistance. By some accounts, he barely controls 30% of the country. So when a powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, killing more than 3,700 people and causing widespread devastation, the general moved rapidly to bolster his position with a rare plea for international help. 'Min Aung Hlaing is leveraging the earthquake for regional engagement and electoral legitimacy,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, a PhD student in political science at Cornell University. 'The humanitarian crisis gives him a pretext to open channels he'd long shut.' Those openings included a face-to-face meeting last month between the junta leader and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, which currently holds the rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The regional bloc had shunned high-level talks with Myanmar since the coup, to avoid legitimizing the junta. Following the meeting in the Thai capital Bangkok, Anwar said he had a 'frank and constructive discussion' with the general, focused on humanitarian assistance for quake-hit communities and the extension of a military-declared ceasefire to facilitate aid deliveries. 'For Min Aung Hlaing, securing even a veneer of regional legitimacy now lays political groundwork: He can argue 'Look, neighbors trust me enough to talk,' even as democratic leaders and exile groups remain excluded from the table,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing. Some say now is the time for countries to engage with Myanmar's military rulers, to push for dialogue and peace. Four years of war has ravaged the country; 3 million people have been displaced by the fighting and the earthquake has only deepened an already dire humanitarian crisis in which at least 20 million people need aid. 'The main concern is the humanitarian situation. Sometimes, when we have this kind of crisis, it's an opportunity for all the parties to try to come together, to think of the interests of the people… maybe it could lead to some kind of dialogue process,' said Sihasak Phuangketkeow, a former deputy foreign affairs minister of Thailand who has been part of his country's efforts to engage the State Administration Council, the junta's official name. In recent months, Min Aung Hlaing has enjoyed a series of diplomatic engagements. As bodies were still being pulled from the rubble of the quake, the general was shaking hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of a regional meeting in Bangkok. Rights groups and civil society organizations said his presence at the BIMSTEC summit amounted to the gathering lending legitimacy to a war criminal. India said its bilateral meeting, set up to facilitate disaster relief, provided an opportunity to push the junta for 'inclusive dialogue' and underline that there could be 'no military solution to the conflict.' That meeting came a month after Min Aung Hlaing's high-profile state visit to Russia to boost cooperation with President Vladimir Putin, his longtime ally and main arms supplier. Above all for the junta leader, domestic legitimacy is key in order to maintain his regime. And regional support for his planned elections, slated to be held later this year, is the first step in securing that. Since seizing power, Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly promised elections. But with most of the democratic camp in exile or jail, Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy dissolved, and the military's widespread repression of the people, such a vote would never be considered free or fair, observers say. Min Aung Hlaing's March invitation to election observers from Belarus – Europe's last dictatorship – appeared to underscore their point. 'We have to make it very clear that for the election to be credible, it has to have inclusive dialogue,' said Sihasak, who is now secretary-general of the Asian Peace and Reconciliation Council. 'It is not a blank check,' he added. 'It's an opportunity for us to engage, but not engage in a way that supports legitimacy, but to impress upon the regime that they have to also make concessions.' Some observers say the junta cannot be trusted to make concessions, when the military's history is littered with false promises masking an unending stream of atrocities. Even as Malaysia's Anwar was touting the military's so-called ceasefire to help quake-hit communities, the junta was restricting aid and intensifying its deadly campaign with airstrikes in opposition areas that have reportedly killed dozens of civilians. Analysts warn that the military will use greater engagement as a pretext to normalize diplomatic ties and entrench its authoritarian rule. 'If you negotiate with the devil without red lines, that is complicity,' said Adelina Kamal, an independent analyst and member of the Southeast Asian Women Peace Mediators network. Kamal said the international community risks being 'deceived into the military's stage performance,' where elections would be 'an illusion of democratic transition.' In 2008, when parts of the country were ravaged by powerful Cyclone Nargis, the military regime at the time pushed ahead with a constitutional referendum that paved the way for a semi-civilian government but cemented the military's influence on the country's politics. With a new military-drafted constitution in place, the regime – called the State Peace and Development Council – held elections in 2010 widely regarded as a sham. Today's junta is 'taking a page from the SPDC's playbook to assert and retain its political role,' said Moe Thuzar, coordinator of the Myanmar studies program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 'The people of Myanmar have made it amply clear since 2021 about their mistrust in the military's statements about elections, and view elections in the current situation as potentially leading to more violence.' Those who have firsthand experience of that violence say actions speak louder than words. 'Talking to Min Aung Hlaing will not bring any political solution and satisfy what the majority of people want,' said Khun Bedu, chairman of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, which is fighting the military in the country's southeast. The Karen National Union, which has been fighting the military since independence from Britain more than 70 years ago, said inclusive dialogue cannot happen without first a ceasefire and the delivery of humanitarian assistance. 'Before all people can sit together and solve the problem, Min Aung Hlaing needs to stop all of the violence in the country. Without that we cannot accept any dialogue,' KNU spokesperson Saw Taw Nee told CNN. There is hope, however, from some quarters that progress could be made this year. Following his talks with the junta leader, Malaysia's Anwar also held a widely praised virtual meeting with Mahn Win Khaing Than, prime minister of the National Unity Government, in ASEAN's first public face-to-face with Myanmar's shadow administration of lawmakers deposed in the coup. The NUG, which considers itself the legitimate government of Myanmar, has repeatedly insisted on engaging all stakeholders to solve the crisis. 'I see 2025 as the year, with the election coming in and with this crisis, that we can either win the peace or we can lose the peace,' said Sihasak, the former Thai minister. To get there, international partners should 'tie any dialogue to verifiable steps' including 'genuine humanitarian corridors, release of political prisoners, and binding guarantees of inclusive talks,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing at Cornell. 'Otherwise, engagement simply extends the junta's lifeline at the expense of the Burmese people's aspirations for democracy,' he said. CNN's Kocha Olarn and Ross Adkin contributed reporting.
CNN
03-05-2025
- Politics
- CNN
Myanmar's earthquake devastated the war-torn nation. For its reviled military leaders, it has brought opportunity
Earthquakes are devastating for those who have lost loved ones, homes and livelihoods, but for military dictators clinging to power, such disasters can also bring opportunity. Myanmar's military rulers have spent the past four years waging a brutal civil war across the Southeast Asian country, sending columns of troops on bloody rampages, torching and bombing villages, massacring residents, jailing opponents and forcing young men and women to join the army. The junta is headed by a widely reviled army chief who overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and installed himself as leader. But like with most aspiring strongmen, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing's rule is precarious. He and his cronies have been sanctioned and spurned internationally, the economy is in tatters, and his military is losing significant territory in a grinding, multi-front war against a determined resistance. By some accounts, he barely controls 30% of the country. So when a powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, killing more than 3,700 people and causing widespread devastation, the general moved rapidly to bolster his position with a rare plea for international help. 'Min Aung Hlaing is leveraging the earthquake for regional engagement and electoral legitimacy,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, a PhD student in political science at Cornell University. 'The humanitarian crisis gives him a pretext to open channels he'd long shut.' Those openings included a face-to-face meeting last month between the junta leader and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, which currently holds the rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The regional bloc had shunned high-level talks with Myanmar since the coup, to avoid legitimizing the junta. Following the meeting in the Thai capital Bangkok, Anwar said he had a 'frank and constructive discussion' with the general, focused on humanitarian assistance for quake-hit communities and the extension of a military-declared ceasefire to facilitate aid deliveries. 'For Min Aung Hlaing, securing even a veneer of regional legitimacy now lays political groundwork: He can argue 'Look, neighbors trust me enough to talk,' even as democratic leaders and exile groups remain excluded from the table,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing. Some say now is the time for countries to engage with Myanmar's military rulers, to push for dialogue and peace. Four years of war has ravaged the country; 3 million people have been displaced by the fighting and the earthquake has only deepened an already dire humanitarian crisis in which at least 20 million people need aid. 'The main concern is the humanitarian situation. Sometimes, when we have this kind of crisis, it's an opportunity for all the parties to try to come together, to think of the interests of the people… maybe it could lead to some kind of dialogue process,' said Sihasak Phuangketkeow, a former deputy foreign affairs minister of Thailand who has been part of his country's efforts to engage the State Administration Council, the junta's official name. In recent months, Min Aung Hlaing has enjoyed a series of diplomatic engagements. As bodies were still being pulled from the rubble of the quake, the general was shaking hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of a regional meeting in Bangkok. Rights groups and civil society organizations said his presence at the BIMSTEC summit amounted to the gathering lending legitimacy to a war criminal. India said its bilateral meeting, set up to facilitate disaster relief, provided an opportunity to push the junta for 'inclusive dialogue' and underline that there could be 'no military solution to the conflict.' That meeting came a month after Min Aung Hlaing's high-profile state visit to Russia to boost cooperation with President Vladimir Putin, his longtime ally and main arms supplier. Above all for the junta leader, domestic legitimacy is key in order to maintain his regime. And regional support for his planned elections, slated to be held later this year, is the first step in securing that. Since seizing power, Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly promised elections. But with most of the democratic camp in exile or jail, Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy dissolved, and the military's widespread repression of the people, such a vote would never be considered free or fair, observers say. Min Aung Hlaing's March invitation to election observers from Belarus – Europe's last dictatorship – appeared to underscore their point. 'We have to make it very clear that for the election to be credible, it has to have inclusive dialogue,' said Sihasak, who is now secretary-general of the Asian Peace and Reconciliation Council. 'It is not a blank check,' he added. 'It's an opportunity for us to engage, but not engage in a way that supports legitimacy, but to impress upon the regime that they have to also make concessions.' Some observers say the junta cannot be trusted to make concessions, when the military's history is littered with false promises masking an unending stream of atrocities. Even as Malaysia's Anwar was touting the military's so-called ceasefire to help quake-hit communities, the junta was restricting aid and intensifying its deadly campaign with airstrikes in opposition areas that have reportedly killed dozens of civilians. Analysts warn that the military will use greater engagement as a pretext to normalize diplomatic ties and entrench its authoritarian rule. 'If you negotiate with the devil without red lines, that is complicity,' said Adelina Kamal, an independent analyst and member of the Southeast Asian Women Peace Mediators network. Kamal said the international community risks being 'deceived into the military's stage performance,' where elections would be 'an illusion of democratic transition.' In 2008, when parts of the country were ravaged by powerful Cyclone Nargis, the military regime at the time pushed ahead with a constitutional referendum that paved the way for a semi-civilian government but cemented the military's influence on the country's politics. With a new military-drafted constitution in place, the regime – called the State Peace and Development Council – held elections in 2010 widely regarded as a sham. Today's junta is 'taking a page from the SPDC's playbook to assert and retain its political role,' said Moe Thuzar, coordinator of the Myanmar studies program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 'The people of Myanmar have made it amply clear since 2021 about their mistrust in the military's statements about elections, and view elections in the current situation as potentially leading to more violence.' Those who have firsthand experience of that violence say actions speak louder than words. 'Talking to Min Aung Hlaing will not bring any political solution and satisfy what the majority of people want,' said Khun Bedu, chairman of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, which is fighting the military in the country's southeast. The Karen National Union, which has been fighting the military since independence from Britain more than 70 years ago, said inclusive dialogue cannot happen without first a ceasefire and the delivery of humanitarian assistance. 'Before all people can sit together and solve the problem, Min Aung Hlaing needs to stop all of the violence in the country. Without that we cannot accept any dialogue,' KNU spokesperson Saw Taw Nee told CNN. There is hope, however, from some quarters that progress could be made this year. Following his talks with the junta leader, Malaysia's Anwar also held a widely praised virtual meeting with Mahn Win Khaing Than, prime minister of the National Unity Government, in ASEAN's first public face-to-face with Myanmar's shadow administration of lawmakers deposed in the coup. The NUG, which considers itself the legitimate government of Myanmar, has repeatedly insisted on engaging all stakeholders to solve the crisis. 'I see 2025 as the year, with the election coming in and with this crisis, that we can either win the peace or we can lose the peace,' said Sihasak, the former Thai minister. To get there, international partners should 'tie any dialogue to verifiable steps' including 'genuine humanitarian corridors, release of political prisoners, and binding guarantees of inclusive talks,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing at Cornell. 'Otherwise, engagement simply extends the junta's lifeline at the expense of the Burmese people's aspirations for democracy,' he said. CNN's Kocha Olarn and Ross Adkin contributed reporting.
CNN
02-05-2025
- Politics
- CNN
Myanmar's earthquake devastated the war-torn nation. For its reviled military leaders, it has brought opportunity
Earthquakes are devastating for those who have lost loved ones, homes and livelihoods, but for military dictators clinging to power, such disasters can also bring opportunity. Myanmar's military rulers have spent the past four years waging a brutal civil war across the Southeast Asian country, sending columns of troops on bloody rampages, torching and bombing villages, massacring residents, jailing opponents and forcing young men and women to join the army. The junta is headed by a widely reviled army chief who overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi and installed himself as leader. But like with most aspiring strongmen, Sen. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing's rule is precarious. He and his cronies have been sanctioned and spurned internationally, the economy is in tatters, and his military is losing significant territory in a grinding, multi-front war against a determined resistance. By some accounts, he barely controls 30% of the country. So when a powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, killing more than 3,700 people and causing widespread devastation, the general moved rapidly to bolster his position with a rare plea for international help. 'Min Aung Hlaing is leveraging the earthquake for regional engagement and electoral legitimacy,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, a PhD student in political science at Cornell University. 'The humanitarian crisis gives him a pretext to open channels he'd long shut.' Those openings included a face-to-face meeting last month between the junta leader and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, which currently holds the rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The regional bloc had shunned high-level talks with Myanmar since the coup, to avoid legitimizing the junta. Following the meeting in the Thai capital Bangkok, Anwar said he had a 'frank and constructive discussion' with the general, focused on humanitarian assistance for quake-hit communities and the extension of a military-declared ceasefire to facilitate aid deliveries. 'For Min Aung Hlaing, securing even a veneer of regional legitimacy now lays political groundwork: He can argue 'Look, neighbors trust me enough to talk,' even as democratic leaders and exile groups remain excluded from the table,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing. Some say now is the time for countries to engage with Myanmar's military rulers, to push for dialogue and peace. Four years of war has ravaged the country; 3 million people have been displaced by the fighting and the earthquake has only deepened an already dire humanitarian crisis in which at least 20 million people need aid. 'The main concern is the humanitarian situation. Sometimes, when we have this kind of crisis, it's an opportunity for all the parties to try to come together, to think of the interests of the people… maybe it could lead to some kind of dialogue process,' said Sihasak Phuangketkeow, a former deputy foreign affairs minister of Thailand who has been part of his country's efforts to engage the State Administration Council, the junta's official name. In recent months, Min Aung Hlaing has enjoyed a series of diplomatic engagements. As bodies were still being pulled from the rubble of the quake, the general was shaking hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of a regional meeting in Bangkok. Rights groups and civil society organizations said his presence at the BIMSTEC summit amounted to the gathering lending legitimacy to a war criminal. India said its bilateral meeting, set up to facilitate disaster relief, provided an opportunity to push the junta for 'inclusive dialogue' and underline that there could be 'no military solution to the conflict.' That meeting came a month after Min Aung Hlaing's high-profile state visit to Russia to boost cooperation with President Vladimir Putin, his longtime ally and main arms supplier. Above all for the junta leader, domestic legitimacy is key in order to maintain his regime. And regional support for his planned elections, slated to be held later this year, is the first step in securing that. Since seizing power, Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly promised elections. But with most of the democratic camp in exile or jail, Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy dissolved, and the military's widespread repression of the people, such a vote would never be considered free or fair, observers say. Min Aung Hlaing's March invitation to election observers from Belarus – Europe's last dictatorship – appeared to underscore their point. 'We have to make it very clear that for the election to be credible, it has to have inclusive dialogue,' said Sihasak, who is now secretary-general of the Asian Peace and Reconciliation Council. 'It is not a blank check,' he added. 'It's an opportunity for us to engage, but not engage in a way that supports legitimacy, but to impress upon the regime that they have to also make concessions.' Some observers say the junta cannot be trusted to make concessions, when the military's history is littered with false promises masking an unending stream of atrocities. Even as Malaysia's Anwar was touting the military's so-called ceasefire to help quake-hit communities, the junta was restricting aid and intensifying its deadly campaign with airstrikes in opposition areas that have reportedly killed dozens of civilians. Analysts warn that the military will use greater engagement as a pretext to normalize diplomatic ties and entrench its authoritarian rule. 'If you negotiate with the devil without red lines, that is complicity,' said Adelina Kamal, an independent analyst and member of the Southeast Asian Women Peace Mediators network. Kamal said the international community risks being 'deceived into the military's stage performance,' where elections would be 'an illusion of democratic transition.' In 2008, when parts of the country were ravaged by powerful Cyclone Nargis, the military regime at the time pushed ahead with a constitutional referendum that paved the way for a semi-civilian government but cemented the military's influence on the country's politics. With a new military-drafted constitution in place, the regime – called the State Peace and Development Council – held elections in 2010 widely regarded as a sham. Today's junta is 'taking a page from the SPDC's playbook to assert and retain its political role,' said Moe Thuzar, coordinator of the Myanmar studies program at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 'The people of Myanmar have made it amply clear since 2021 about their mistrust in the military's statements about elections, and view elections in the current situation as potentially leading to more violence.' Those who have firsthand experience of that violence say actions speak louder than words. 'Talking to Min Aung Hlaing will not bring any political solution and satisfy what the majority of people want,' said Khun Bedu, chairman of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, which is fighting the military in the country's southeast. The Karen National Union, which has been fighting the military since independence from Britain more than 70 years ago, said inclusive dialogue cannot happen without first a ceasefire and the delivery of humanitarian assistance. 'Before all people can sit together and solve the problem, Min Aung Hlaing needs to stop all of the violence in the country. Without that we cannot accept any dialogue,' KNU spokesperson Saw Taw Nee told CNN. There is hope, however, from some quarters that progress could be made this year. Following his talks with the junta leader, Malaysia's Anwar also held a widely praised virtual meeting with Mahn Win Khaing Than, prime minister of the National Unity Government, in ASEAN's first public face-to-face with Myanmar's shadow administration of lawmakers deposed in the coup. The NUG, which considers itself the legitimate government of Myanmar, has repeatedly insisted on engaging all stakeholders to solve the crisis. 'I see 2025 as the year, with the election coming in and with this crisis, that we can either win the peace or we can lose the peace,' said Sihasak, the former Thai minister. To get there, international partners should 'tie any dialogue to verifiable steps' including 'genuine humanitarian corridors, release of political prisoners, and binding guarantees of inclusive talks,' said Kyaw Hsan Hlaing at Cornell. 'Otherwise, engagement simply extends the junta's lifeline at the expense of the Burmese people's aspirations for democracy,' he said. CNN's Kocha Olarn and Ross Adkin contributed reporting.
Arab News
01-05-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Myanmar earthquake a double blow to the junta
On March 28, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar, leveling communities, killing more than 3,700 people and leaving tens of thousands homeless. The epicenter, near Mandalay, shook the nation's heart, collapsing bridges, pagodas and homes and exposing the fragility of a country already fractured by a brutal civil war. Beyond the physical devastation, this catastrophe has reshaped the psychological landscape of Myanmar's conflict, delivering a profound boost to the resistance forces battling the junta. In a nation steeped in superstition, many rebels interpret the quake as divine retribution against the military government, fueling their morale and momentum in a war that has raged since the 2021 coup. The civil war, pitting the junta against a coalition of ethnic armed groups and the People's Defence Force under the national unity government, has been a grinding, multifront struggle. The earthquake has added a new dimension, straining the junta's resources and exposing its vulnerabilities. Mandalay, a junta stronghold, suffered extensive damage, with more than 65,000 buildings affected, including critical infrastructure like hospitals and bridges. The military, already stretched thin by resistance offensives, has been forced to divert troops and funds to relief efforts, weakening its grip on contested regions. In Sagaing, where the city remains under junta control but the countryside is dominated by resistance militias, the quake's destruction has disrupted supply lines and communication networks, hampering military operations. Many rebels interpret the quake as divine retribution against the military government, fueling their morale and momentum Dr. Azeem Ibrahim This logistical burden comes at a critical moment. The resistance has made significant gains since the launch of Operation 1027 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance in October 2023. The alliance, comprising the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army, has seized key territories, including Lashio in Shan State. The earthquake's timing has created openings for further advances. As political analyst Kyaw Hsan Hlaing noted, the junta's preoccupation with disaster response has allowed groups like the Arakan Army to consolidate control over towns like Falam in Chin State. The national unity government's truce declaration, allowing only defensive operations until April 20, enabled resistance forces to exploit these gaps, while the junta's continued airstrikes — more than 120 since the quake, according to the UN — have drawn international condemnation and further alienated civilians. But the earthquake's impact transcends material losses. In Myanmar, where Buddhist cosmology and superstition permeate daily life, natural disasters are often imbued with spiritual significance. For many in the resistance, the quake is seen as a divine verdict on the junta's brutality. Since the 2021 coup, the military has killed tens of thousands, displaced millions and razed civilian infrastructure, earning widespread hatred. The quake's devastation of junta-controlled areas, particularly Mandalay's cultural and religious sites, has been interpreted by some rebels as cosmic justice. Social media posts from resistance fighters, reported by local outlets, describe the earthquake as 'the earth rejecting the generals' tyranny' and a sign that 'the heavens stand with the people.' This narrative resonates deeply in a country where omens and portents shape perceptions of legitimacy. The psychological boost cannot be overstated. In a war where morale is as critical as ammunition, the belief that righteousness is on their side has galvanized resistance fighters. The junta's legitimacy, already eroded by its violent suppression of protests and conscription drives, has taken another hit. Reports from displaced communities in Kayah State highlight a growing sense among civilians that the junta's misfortunes signal its impending collapse. This sentiment is amplified by the resistance's narrative warfare, with sympathetic media outlets framing the quake as a turning point. The capture of strategic locations post-quake, often unreported as ceasefire violations by pro-resistance platforms, underscores how this perception of divine favor is translating into battlefield gains. In a war where morale is as critical as ammunition, the belief that righteousness is on their side has galvanized resistance fighters Dr. Azeem Ibrahim However, the resistance's momentum is not without constraints. China, a key backer of the junta, has exerted significant influence over the conflict's trajectory. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army's decision this month to hand Lashio back to the junta, under Chinese pressure, highlighted Beijing's ability to dictate outcomes. China's growing economic stakes in Myanmar, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, make it wary of prolonged instability. While the earthquake has temporarily shifted focus to humanitarian aid — China dispatched more than 30 rescue teams and some $13.7 million in relief — Beijing's long-term strategy remains stabilizing the junta to protect its interests. This external pressure could temper the resistance's advances, particularly in northern Shan State, where Chinese influence is strongest. The international response, or lack thereof, further complicates the picture. This geopolitical vacuum has allowed authoritarian powers to bolster the junta's position through aid, undermining the resistance's narrative of global support. The UN has criticized the junta for breaching the ceasefire, but its calls for humanitarian access have gone largely unheeded. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations' attempts at mediation, led by Malaysia's Anwar Ibrahim, have yielded little beyond temporary pauses in fighting. For the resistance, the earthquake has been both a tactical opportunity and a psychological catalyst. The junta's weakened state, coupled with the rebels' belief in divine endorsement, has injected new vigor into their campaign. However, the path forward is fraught with challenges. The resistance must navigate China's influence, international indifference and the junta's relentless airstrikes. The quake has shifted the ground — literally and figuratively — but its ultimate impact on Myanmar's civil war remains uncertain. As Richard Horsey, a Myanmar expert, cautioned, the disaster's effects are 'hard to predict.' What is clear is that in a nation where the spiritual and political are intertwined, the earthquake has given the resistance a powerful symbol of hope and righteousness, one they will wield as they continue their fight for freedom.
