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Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Markets resilient, H2 growth to be led by consumption & earnings: Sumit Bhatnagar
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Sumit Bhatnagar: Sumit Bhatnagar: ET Now: Sumit Bhatnagar: Sumit Bhatnagar, Fund Manager at LIC MF, expects a minor time correction in the market but does not foresee major price declines. He anticipates a pickup in corporate earnings , driven by consumption and increased capex activity, benefiting sectors like NBFCs, cement, and global economy is continuing to throw curveballs at us, and it would continue till the time Donald Trump is in the office. So, what we need to focus on is the domestic economy, and that is where our focus is. If you look at the domestic economy, we are doing reasonably well. The fiscal and monetary measures taken by the RBI and the central government should help in improvement in your growth trajectory in the second half. We expect all the liquidity measures, the rate cut measures that the government has taken to play through your economy in the next two to three months, and we should see some bit of improvement both at the GDP growth level and at the corporate earnings level in the second half. Regarding this quarter's numbers, while they maybe broadly in line with expectation, the key takeaway for us is that the earning downgrade cycle or the pace of earnings downgrade is getting slower and probably we are in a bottom quarter or maybe the Q2 can be the bottom quarter for earning downgrade per se and from here on we expect the earnings to pick up gradually. As far as valuations are concerned, our markets are still fairly valued, whether it is your headline indices or if you compare it on a yield gap basis or if you compare the premium that we have enjoyed vis-à-vis other emerging markets, which are broadly in line with the long-term averages. So, you are in a situation where valuations are reasonable and the earnings trajectory is set to the consolidation case is concerned, or when the markets will break out, probably we are not the right people. What we believe is that investors should look at the longer-term investment horizon and should continue to participate in the markets as the Indian story remains robust. So, yes, we do expect some bit of a time correction also in the market, but we do not expect major price corrections from here in the markets per se. And definitely we do expect some pick up in corporate earnings led by your consumption space as also pick up in the capex activity, which should lead to some bit of earnings pick up led by sectors like NBFC, cement, and FMCG.I would say consumption looks good from at least a next two to three years perspective. One is that in the near term, the impact of RBI restrictions on lending has started to ease. You should see some bit of a pickup in credit growth or retail lending, which should support your consumption. Secondly, your income tax cuts should start flowing into the hands of people and get a significant chunk, which also should support your consumption, as well as the fall in interest rates and the liquidity available in the economy per se, which should lower the borrowing cost across and should push the consumer to spend a little more. And if you push it beyond, then your state pay commission and central pay commissions are due next year. So, effective money flow may happen maybe in CY 27, but that also should support your consumption significantly. If you look at the government stand also, essentially, what was happening was the government was purely focused on capex and had actually taxed the consumption a little bit more. So, in the form of higher taxes on individuals or the tweaking of tax rates on GST, which took out close to three to four lakh crores from consumers' hands over the last two years, we expect this to ease going forward. So, we do expect some bit of easing on GST also going forward to support the consumption, that is why all in all we do expect the second half festival, yes, to do well, but at an aggregate level also over the next three years, consumption should see significant traction.
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Markets resilient, H2 growth to be led by consumption & earnings: Sumit Bhatnagar
Sumit Bhatnagar, Fund Manager at LIC MF, expects a minor time correction in the market but does not foresee major price declines. He anticipates a pickup in corporate earnings , driven by consumption and increased capex activity, benefiting sectors like NBFCs, cement, and FMCG. ET Now: Looking at all of these uncertainties, we have a lot of global factors which are playing around, domestically we have the earning season which was not that a great set, at least the first half and now we have the inflation print, the wholesale price index, WPI prints coming in, all of these advocates one fact is that the markets are resilient. What is your take on the market at present? by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like We're unable to afford his treatment again, please help us! Donate For Health Donate Now Undo Sumit Bhatnagar: The global economy is continuing to throw curveballs at us, and it would continue till the time Donald Trump is in the office. So, what we need to focus on is the domestic economy, and that is where our focus is. If you look at the domestic economy, we are doing reasonably well. The fiscal and monetary measures taken by the RBI and the central government should help in improvement in your growth trajectory in the second half. We expect all the liquidity measures, the rate cut measures that the government has taken to play through your economy in the next two to three months, and we should see some bit of improvement both at the GDP growth level and at the corporate earnings level in the second half. Regarding this quarter's numbers, while they maybe broadly in line with expectation, the key takeaway for us is that the earning downgrade cycle or the pace of earnings downgrade is getting slower and probably we are in a bottom quarter or maybe the Q2 can be the bottom quarter for earning downgrade per se and from here on we expect the earnings to pick up gradually. As far as valuations are concerned, our markets are still fairly valued, whether it is your headline indices or if you compare it on a yield gap basis or if you compare the premium that we have enjoyed vis-à-vis other emerging markets, which are broadly in line with the long-term averages. So, you are in a situation where valuations are reasonable and the earnings trajectory is set to improve. ET Now: You mentioned earnings. So, should we expect that the second half of the current financial year will be better than the first half and, more importantly timewise, when will be the time of breakout because we are in consolidation range for very long and one question which everybody is asking which way we will go and more importantly will this consolidation phase end soon? Sumit Bhatnagar: As the consolidation case is concerned, or when the markets will break out, probably we are not the right people. What we believe is that investors should look at the longer-term investment horizon and should continue to participate in the markets as the Indian story remains robust. So, yes, we do expect some bit of a time correction also in the market, but we do not expect major price corrections from here in the markets per se. And definitely we do expect some pick up in corporate earnings led by your consumption space as also pick up in the capex activity, which should lead to some bit of earnings pick up led by sectors like NBFC, cement, and FMCG. Live Events ET Now: And while we talk about the consumption theme, I would like to take it a little further from there. And now up next from here, another five-six months at least till December or the start of January will be the festival days at least for the Indian markets . We will start on the 15th of August, and then we will have all the festivals coming till the new year. Considering all of these, there will be a consumption theme, consumption demand, which will pick up. Let us say the FMCG, automobile, travel and tourism, and hotel sectors. What is your take on that, and how do you see the consumption story for the second half? Sumit Bhatnagar: I would say consumption looks good from at least a next two to three years perspective. One is that in the near term, the impact of RBI restrictions on lending has started to ease. You should see some bit of a pickup in credit growth or retail lending, which should support your consumption. Secondly, your income tax cuts should start flowing into the hands of people and get a significant chunk, which also should support your consumption, as well as the fall in interest rates and the liquidity available in the economy per se, which should lower the borrowing cost across and should push the consumer to spend a little more. And if you push it beyond, then your state pay commission and central pay commissions are due next year. So, effective money flow may happen maybe in CY 27, but that also should support your consumption significantly. If you look at the government stand also, essentially, what was happening was the government was purely focused on capex and had actually taxed the consumption a little bit more. So, in the form of higher taxes on individuals or the tweaking of tax rates on GST, which took out close to three to four lakh crores from consumers' hands over the last two years, we expect this to ease going forward. So, we do expect some bit of easing on GST also going forward to support the consumption, that is why all in all we do expect the second half festival, yes, to do well, but at an aggregate level also over the next three years, consumption should see significant traction.
Economic Times
15-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India's long-term growth story intact, market outlook constructive: Sumit Bhatnagar
"In terms of sector preferences, we're increasingly positive on the consumption theme. We believe consumption is at an inflection point, driven by improvements in both rural and urban demand. Rural consumption is benefiting from a good monsoon so far, healthy reservoir levels, and higher MSPs. This should lead to a continued pickup in rural economic activity," says Sumit Bhatnagar, Fund Manager, LIC MF. ADVERTISEMENT At present, we consider India to be a safe haven amid global tariff uncertainty. But one thing is certain — Trump's tariff-related moves and the associated uncertainties are likely to continue growing. What is your short- and long-term perspective on the domestic markets? Sumit Bhatnagar: As far as global markets are concerned, we've been witnessing intermittent bouts of volatility, driven by both economic and geopolitical factors. Regarding Trump, this issue has been ongoing for the last two to three months. So, a large part of it is already priced in, barring some short-term surprises that may arise from his announcements related to countries like Mexico or Brazil. However, when it comes to India, the outlook remains positive. Domestically, we are constructive on Indian markets simply because we expect economic activity to pick up. Along with that, we anticipate a corresponding improvement in corporate earnings — supported by lower interest rates, ample liquidity, and valuations that are more or less in the fair zone, especially when looking at the broader indices. From a medium- to long-term perspective, India remains very well-positioned. So, you're strongly backing the India growth story. But having said that, I'd like to know about your sector-specific strategies. There's been a lot of rotation happening — so what's on your radar? Which sectors are the hits and misses for you? Sumit Bhatnagar: In terms of sector preferences, we're increasingly positive on the consumption theme. We believe consumption is at an inflection point, driven by improvements in both rural and urban demand. Rural consumption is benefiting from a good monsoon so far, healthy reservoir levels, and higher MSPs. This should lead to a continued pickup in rural economic activity. Additionally, tax cuts that have already been implemented are expected to play out over the next six to nine months. On top of that, regulatory rollbacks by the RBI for lending institutions, lower interest rates, and ample liquidity should also support consumption growth. ADVERTISEMENT Looking ahead, the upcoming pay commissions will be a key driver as well. The central pay commission is due next year, followed by state pay commissions the year after — together putting nearly ₹3 lakh crore into the hands of consumers. There is also talk of GST rationalisation in the FMCG space, which should provide an incremental of this suggests that after five years of underperformance, FMCG may be at the start of a recovery. While this quarter's numbers may be muted, our outlook for the next two to three years is positive. Accordingly, we've increased our exposure to consumption in our portfolios. ADVERTISEMENT We've just seen the WPI numbers come in at -0.13%, which puts us in deflationary territory for wholesale prices. CPI, too, remains well below the 4% benchmark. In the current scenario — where crude is stable around $70 and the interest rate trajectory is relatively clear — which sectors do you see getting re-rated, and where do you expect de-rating? Sumit Bhatnagar: When it comes to re-rating, we are optimistic about sectors like cement and consumption. In cement, if pricing holds and demand picks up post-monsoon in the second half, we could see earnings improve. As discussed earlier, we also expect a significant pickup in consumption, both rural and urban, in the second half of the two sectors — cement and consumption — are where we foresee meaningful re-rating going forward. ADVERTISEMENT On the other hand, sectors exposed to global dynamics, like IT and metals, could face de-rating. This would be driven by continued global uncertainty and economic weakness in key markets such as the US, China, and Japan — which are critical drivers of demand for commodities like metals. So, those would be the sectors where we see potential for de-rating. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
15-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India's long-term growth story intact, market outlook constructive: Sumit Bhatnagar
"In terms of sector preferences, we're increasingly positive on the consumption theme. We believe consumption is at an inflection point, driven by improvements in both rural and urban demand. Rural consumption is benefiting from a good monsoon so far, healthy reservoir levels, and higher MSPs. This should lead to a continued pickup in rural economic activity," says Sumit Bhatnagar , Fund Manager, LIC MF . by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Villas Prices In Dubai Might Be More Affordable Than You Think Villas In Dubai | Search Ads Get Quote Undo At present, we consider India to be a safe haven amid global tariff uncertainty. But one thing is certain — Trump's tariff-related moves and the associated uncertainties are likely to continue growing. What is your short- and long-term perspective on the domestic markets? Sumit Bhatnagar: As far as global markets are concerned, we've been witnessing intermittent bouts of volatility, driven by both economic and geopolitical factors. Regarding Trump, this issue has been ongoing for the last two to three months. So, a large part of it is already priced in, barring some short-term surprises that may arise from his announcements related to countries like Mexico or Brazil. However, when it comes to India, the outlook remains positive. Domestically, we are constructive on Indian markets simply because we expect economic activity to pick up. Along with that, we anticipate a corresponding improvement in corporate earnings — supported by lower interest rates , ample liquidity, and valuations that are more or less in the fair zone, especially when looking at the broader indices. From a medium- to long-term perspective, India remains very well-positioned. So, you're strongly backing the India growth story. But having said that, I'd like to know about your sector-specific strategies. There's been a lot of rotation happening — so what's on your radar? Which sectors are the hits and misses for you? Sumit Bhatnagar: In terms of sector preferences, we're increasingly positive on the consumption theme. We believe consumption is at an inflection point, driven by improvements in both rural and urban demand. Rural consumption is benefiting from a good monsoon so far, healthy reservoir levels, and higher MSPs. This should lead to a continued pickup in rural economic activity. Live Events Additionally, tax cuts that have already been implemented are expected to play out over the next six to nine months. On top of that, regulatory rollbacks by the RBI for lending institutions, lower interest rates, and ample liquidity should also support consumption growth. Looking ahead, the upcoming pay commissions will be a key driver as well. The central pay commission is due next year, followed by state pay commissions the year after — together putting nearly ₹3 lakh crore into the hands of consumers. There is also talk of GST rationalisation in the FMCG space, which should provide an incremental benefit. All of this suggests that after five years of underperformance, FMCG may be at the start of a recovery. While this quarter's numbers may be muted, our outlook for the next two to three years is positive. Accordingly, we've increased our exposure to consumption in our portfolios. We've just seen the WPI numbers come in at -0.13%, which puts us in deflationary territory for wholesale prices. CPI, too, remains well below the 4% benchmark. In the current scenario — where crude is stable around $70 and the interest rate trajectory is relatively clear — which sectors do you see getting re-rated, and where do you expect de-rating? Sumit Bhatnagar: When it comes to re-rating, we are optimistic about sectors like cement and consumption. In cement, if pricing holds and demand picks up post-monsoon in the second half, we could see earnings improve. As discussed earlier, we also expect a significant pickup in consumption, both rural and urban, in the second half of the year. These two sectors — cement and consumption — are where we foresee meaningful re-rating going forward. On the other hand, sectors exposed to global dynamics, like IT and metals, could face de-rating. This would be driven by continued global uncertainty and economic weakness in key markets such as the US, China, and Japan — which are critical drivers of demand for commodities like metals. So, those would be the sectors where we see potential for de-rating.
News18
15-05-2025
- Business
- News18
LIC Mutual Fund Re-Introduces 5 Key Equity Schemes: All You Need To Know
Last Updated: The reintroduction is part of LIC's 'Funds in Focus Q1 FY25' initiative and the schemes are Value Fund, Small Cap Fund, Multi-Asset Fund, Dividend Yield Fund and Focused Fund. LIC Mutual Fund has reintroduced five of its flagship equity schemes as part of its strategic initiative, 'Funds in Focus Q1 FY25', aimed at aligning investment options with evolving market dynamics and investor preferences. 'We are re-introducing these five flagship equity schemes, which have the potential to generate significant wealth for investors with diverse financial needs over the long term," Yogesh Patil, chief investment officer (equity) at LIC Mutual Fund, said. Which Schemes Are Back? The five re-launched schemes are: LIC MF Value Fund LIC MF Small Cap Fund LIC MF Multi-Asset Allocation Fund LIC MF Dividend Yield Fund LIC MF Focused Fund These schemes span various investment themes and risk profiles, catering to long-term wealth creation goals for investors with different financial needs. Assets Under Management On the Rise LIC Mutual Fund's assets under management (AUM) saw a healthy uptick, rising 11% to Rs 37,554 crore in April 2024, up from Rs 33,854 crore in March. The growth reflects increased investor confidence and strategic fund positioning in line with market opportunities. What It Means for Investors For both new and existing investors, the reintroduction of these funds offers renewed opportunities to diversify portfolios and benefit from LIC MF's long-term equity strategies. With markets constantly evolving, such timely product realignment is expected to help meet changing investment goals more effectively. First Published: May 15, 2025, 11:02 IST
