Latest news with #LJP
The Wire
2 hours ago
- Politics
- The Wire
In Bihar's Politics, a Fair Place at the Table Continues to Elude Muslims
Politics Despite Muslims constituting almost 17% of Bihar's population, their voices in legislatures remain disproportionately limited. In Bihar, politics often comes down to numbers and for Muslim candidates, those numbers can be brutally defining. Time and again, elections have shown a clear pattern: Muslim leaders are less likely to win from constituencies where their community doesn't form a significant chunk of the population. It often doesn't matter which party backs them or how experienced they are; if the local Muslim population is too small, their chances at the ballot box tend to drop. Despite Muslims constituting nearly 17% of the state's population, Muslim voices in the legislature are disproportionately limited by geography and demographics. It's not merely about election arithmetic; it's a commentary on where identity and representation meet in Bihar's highly caste and community-oriented politics. The data's message is stark: in Bihar, being a Muslim candidate means that your election may not hinge as much on what you believe in, but on who else around you looks like you do. In this article, we take a closer look at six recent elections in Bihar, three parliamentary (2014, 2019 and 2024) and three assembly (2010, 2015 and 2020), to better understand how Muslim representation has played out at the ballot box. By looking at these two sets of elections, this article aims to uncover patterns in candidate selection, constituency demographics and the win rates of Muslim candidates over the past decade and half. From 2014 to 2024: a narrowing path to parliament for Muslims The 2014 parliamentary election was a difficult terrain for Muslim candidates in Bihar. Most candidates that won had contested from constituencies with a large Muslim population. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) fielded six Muslim candidates, three in constituencies with a 20% to 30% Muslim population and two in constituencies with a less than 20% Muslim population, but only one – the party's candidate for the Araria constituency – won; that seat has a Muslim population of over 40%. The Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) put up five Muslim candidates across different regions, none of whom managed to win. The Congress (INC) through Mohammad Asrarul Haque won one seat, Kishanganj, where Muslims make up around 68% of the population (and from where one of the JD(U)'s Muslim candidates lost). Tariq Anwar of the Nationalist Congress Party won from Katihar, where Muslims make up 41% of the population, and Mehboob Ali Kaiser of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) won in Khagaria (with a just ~11% Muslim population), a rare case where he was able get support from the Dalit community as well – a community that also supported the BJP as the LJP was in alliance with it. The BJP's lone Muslim candidate Shahnawaz Hussain didn't manage to win from Bhagalpur, where Muslims form less than 20% of the seat's population. Overall, the results suggested that Muslim candidates could only win in a constituency where Muslims make up a large share of voters (Table 1). The 2019 election saw a decline in Muslim candidates winning seats. The RJD fielded five Muslim candidates, including in Muslim-majority seats like Araria, and lost all. The INC again held on to Kishanganj, with Mohammad Jawed winning from the same. However, their candidate in Katihar lost. Once again, the LJP's candidate in Khagaria won from a constituency with a low Muslim population share, repeating the exception seen in 2014. These results highlighted a deeper problem: Muslim candidates were not able to win in constituencies where they once had better chances. Without the support of other communities, especially Yadavs and Dalits, their chances had become even slimmer (Table 2). By 2024, the space for Muslim candidates had shrunk further. Only five were fielded by major parties: two by the RJD, one by the JD(U) and two by the INC. The RJD's candidates both failed to win. The INC, however, won both its seats: Kishanganj and Katihar. This underlined that it is still difficult for Muslims to achieve adequate representation. Their success now depends almost entirely on contesting from seats with large Muslim populations, and even then, only with backing from other communities like Yadavs and Dalits. Muslim representation remains limited to a few pockets where demographics and political alliances align just right. Overall, if we observe the eight Muslim candidates who won across the three elections, six of them were elected from constituencies where the Muslim population was over 40%. This clearly shows a strong correlation between a high Muslim population and the winnability of Muslim candidates (Table 3). 2010 to 2020: a decade of fluctuating fortunes for Muslims in the Bihar assembly In the last three assembly elections in Bihar, the success of Muslim candidates has dramatically fluctuated, depending on shifting alliances and party strategies, as well as the evolving political identity of Muslim voters. In 2010, the RJD fielded the highest number of Muslim candidates at 30. Its win rate in this aspect stood at just 20%. The INC performed even worse, with only three of its 49 Muslim candidates winning, thus clocking a dismal 6.12% win rate. The three seats the party won were Kishanganj, Kasba and Bahadurganj, all of which have a Muslim population of over 40%. The JD(U) emerged as an exception in this election, with a strong 50% win rate, largely due to its ability to garner support from across communities, even in areas with a low Muslim population. But the larger pattern in 2010 was clear: Muslim candidates were otherwise more likely to win from seats with high Muslim populations (Table 4). The 2015 election, however, brought a major shift. The formation of the Mahagathbandhan between the RJD, JD(U) and INC changed the game for Muslim candidates, who won 24 seats. The RJD's win rate surged to 75%, with 12 wins out of 16 constituencies, including many from seats where Muslims weren't even the predominant group. The JD(U) followed with a 71.42% win rate, while the INC also improved, winning six out of ten seats. This success was not merely a result of demographics; it reflected the fact that people averse to the NDA may have felt like they didn't have a choice but to vote for a Mahagathbandhan candidate (as their number of choices would have gone down with alliance parties fielding one candidate per seat), whether they were Muslim or otherwise. It also highlighted the fact that if Muslims receive support from other communities, they may make it to the assembly. The 2015 election proved that when social coalitions align, Muslim political representation can thrive, even in areas where they aren't numerically predominant (Table 5). By 2020, that momentum had fractured. The Mahagathbandhan weakened, and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM)'s emergence in Seemanchal added a new layer of competition for Muslim votes. Nineteen Muslims were able to win in this election. The RJD's performance slipped, with just eight of its 18 Muslim candidates winning – a 44.44% win rate. The INC's win rate declined drastically to 36.36% and the JD(U), once a model of cross-community support, failed to send a single Muslim candidate to the assembly, largely due to two factors: first, its being an ally of the BJP, and second, in the recent past the JD(U) didn't seem to stand up for the Muslim community on the national and state level. The AIMIM secured five wins out of 15 in its debut assembly election in Bihar, but only in Muslim-majority constituencies, highlighting both its rise and its limits. The 2020 results revealed a scattered field where Muslim votes were divided and Muslim candidates increasingly reliant on narrow, community-driven strategies rather than broad-based alliances (Table 6). This pattern in which Muslim candidates often win from seats with a large Muslim population raises a troubling question. Why is it that Muslim voters often vote along ideological lines, but non-Muslim voters seem to prefer sticking to caste lines when the candidate is Muslim? According to the CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey of 2020, 76% of Muslims voted for the Mahagathbandhan, irrespective of caste and region. Yet when a Muslim candidate stands, many from the Mahagathbandhan's own base often keep their votes firmly within caste and religious borders. Transferability, the supposed lifeblood of coalition politics, seems to get stuck in traffic whenever a Muslim candidate appears on the ballot. The irony is rich: the most ideologically loyal voters get the least electoral reward. Perhaps parties in Bihar should hold a crash course on coalition basics, or at least invest in stronger vote transfer engines. Because if secular parties don't seriously rethink Muslim representation soon, they may find their minority plank strong in theory, but minority MLAs missing from the seats that count. For years, Muslims in Bihar have voted with hope in their hearts, not for their own caste or narrow interests. Muslims stood by the promises of secularism, cast their vote for alliances and not identity. But when it's time for tickets or seats, they're too often left behind, told quietly that the numbers don't favour them. Their loyalty is rarely doubted, yet they are rarely rewarded by secular parties. Muslims aren't asking for privilege, they are asking just for a fair place at the table. And if their voice keeps getting ignored, the silence they leave behind may one day speak volumes. Aamir Shakil is a political researcher based in Delhi. The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.
NDTV
3 days ago
- Politics
- NDTV
Nitish Kumar Will Be Bihar Chief Minister After Polls: Chirag Paswan
New Delhi: Union minister and LJP (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan on Monday said Nitish Kumar will take oath as Bihar Chief Minister again after the assembly elections to be held later this year. Mr Paswan's remarks came just two days after he expressed "regret" over having to support the Nitish Kumar government, which he alleged has "surrendered" before criminals. Talking to reporters on the sidelines of an event here, the Union food processing minister also accused the Opposition of targeting the Army to attack Prime Minister Narendra Modi over Operation Sindoor. Mr Paswan, the MP from Hajipur in Bihar, said the NDA is a "winning combination" for the elections and reiterated his commitment towards Prime Minister Modi. "Several times I have reiterated that my commitment and love is towards the Prime Minister. Under PM Modi's leadership, the elections (in Bihar) will be fought. After the election results, Nitish Kumar will again take oath as chief minister. Definitely he will be the chief minister," he said. On the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar, Mr Paswan said this process has happened four times earlier with no difference, except that digital technology has been linked now. "Earlier, one used to go for physical documentation and now online you can submit," he said. The Union food processing minister pointed out that Aadhaar cards do not have place of birth clarity, adding that people can appeal at three levels if there are any problems. "Opposition created such noise on this issue. Have they given any proof to show if names have been removed wrongly?" he asked. "Only the one wrongly registered will be deleted. But at the same time it will be ensured that no one is meted out with injustice. We also need to ensure intruders do not take advantage of our voters," Mr Paswan said. He noted that after every election, it was the Opposition that complained to the Election Commission about anomalies in voter lists. "EVMs are fine now, voter lists are an issue for them." The minister said the process will be implemented across the country eventually. "Intensive revision is necessary. Some deceased's names are on the list and it is continuing. By chance, it (SIR) is implemented in Bihar. In the coming days, it will be done in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu where elections are due, and eventually across the country." Responding to RJD MP Manoj Jha's suggestion about sending a fact-finding committee to Bihar to assess the law and order situation, Paswan said, "I am a Bihari. I need not send a committee to understand the situation in my state. I know the situation and therefore expressed concern." "When I raise the issue, they see my revolt. It is not a revolt, but a concern," he added. The LJP(RV) chief said the Opposition would like the NDA to split as it cannot win on its own strength and can win only by weakening the opposite side. On Operation Sindoor, Mr Paswan accused the Opposition of not sparing even the Army in order to target Prime Minister Modi. "Operation Sindoor was carried out by the Army not by a minister. Its success was due to the Army. I give credit to the PM as will power is necessary for giving approval for such a big decision. We kept in mind the sensitivity of the issue. To target Prime Minister Modi, they (Opposition) are putting a question mark on Operation Sindoor. What kind of thinking is this?" he said. The LJP chief said he has a problem with the Opposition having "faith in every foreigner" but not the government and politicians in India. "They believe what the prime minister of another country has said. They believe what the neighbouring country has said. But they don't want to believe what our Army and the democratically elected government are saying," he said. Mr Paswan also criticised the Opposition for demanding a special session of Parliament to discuss Operation Sindoor and then creating ruckus when it was convened. "When it was convened, what did they do? They created ruckus and proceedings were adjourned twice. Is this your priority?" he asked. "Politicising every issue is not a good sign. You raise questions to seek response on the issue, but don't use the platform for political benefit," the Union minister said.
Hindustan Times
3 days ago
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
Chirag Paswar predicts Nitish's return as CM after Bihar polls, backs NDA
Union minister and LJP (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan on Monday said Nitish Kumar will take oath as Bihar Chief Minister again after the assembly elections to be held later this year. Paswan, the MP from Hajipur in Bihar, said the NDA is a "winning combination" for the elections and reiterated his commitment towards Prime Minister Modi.(PTI) Paswan's remarks came just two days after he expressed "regret" over having to support the Nitish Kumar government, which he alleged has "surrendered" before criminals. Talking to reporters on the sidelines of an event here, the Union food processing minister also accused the Opposition of targeting the Army to attack Prime Minister Narendra Modi over Operation Sindoor. Paswan, the MP from Hajipur in Bihar, said the NDA is a "winning combination" for the elections and reiterated his commitment towards Prime Minister Modi. "Several times I have reiterated that my commitment and love is towards the Prime Minister. Under PM Modi's leadership, the elections (in Bihar) will be fought. After the election results, Nitish Kumar will again take oath as chief minister. Definitely he will be the chief minister," he said. On the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar, Paswan said this process has happened four times earlier with no difference, except that digital technology has been linked now. "Earlier, one used to go for physical documentation and now online you can submit," he said. The Union food processing minister pointed out that Aadhaar cards do not have place of birth clarity, adding that people can appeal at three levels if there are any problems. "Opposition created such noise on this issue. Have they given any proof to show if names have been removed wrongly?" he asked. "Only the one wrongly registered will be deleted. But at the same time it will be ensured that no one is meted out with injustice. We also need to ensure intruders do not take advantage of our voters," Paswan said. He noted that after every election, it was the Opposition that complained to the Election Commission about anomalies in voter lists. "EVMs are fine now, voter lists are an issue for them." The minister said the process will be implemented across the country eventually. "Intensive revision is necessary. Some deceased's names are on the list and it is continuing. By chance, it (SIR) is implemented in Bihar. In the coming days, it will be done in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu where elections are due, and eventually across the country." Responding to RJD MP Manoj Jha's suggestion about sending a fact-finding committee to Bihar to assess the law and order situation, Paswan said, "I am a Bihari. I need not send a committee to understand the situation in my state. I know the situation and therefore expressed concern." "When I raise the issue, they see my revolt. It is not a revolt, but a concern," he added. The LJP(RV) chief said the Opposition would like the NDA to split as it cannot win on its own strength and can win only by weakening the opposite side. On Operation Sindoor, Paswan accused the Opposition of not sparing even the Army in order to target Prime Minister Modi. "Operation Sindoor was carried out by the Army not by a minister. Its success was due to the Army. I give credit to the PM as will power is necessary for giving approval for such a big decision. We kept in mind the sensitivity of the issue. To target Prime Minister Modi, they (Opposition) are putting a question mark on Operation Sindoor. What kind of thinking is this?" he said. The LJP chief said he has a problem with the Opposition having "faith in every foreigner" but not the government and politicians in India. "They believe what the prime minister of another country has said. They believe what the neighbouring country has said. But they don't want to believe what our Army and the democratically elected government are saying," he said. Paswan also criticised the Opposition for demanding a special session of Parliament to discuss Operation Sindoor and then creating ruckus when it was convened. "When it was convened, what did they do? They created ruckus and proceedings were adjourned twice. Is this your priority?" he asked. "Politicising every issue is not a good sign. You raise questions to seek response on the issue, but don't use the platform for political benefit," the Union minister said.
Indian Express
3 days ago
- Politics
- Indian Express
Nitish Kumar will ‘definitely' be CM again after Bihar election results: Chirag Paswan
Ahead of the upcoming Bihar Assembly polls, Union Minister and LJP(RV) chief Chirag Paswan said Nitish Kumar will 'definitely' be the Chief Minister of Bihar once again if the BJP-JD(U) alliance wins in the state. His remarks come just a few days after he expressed 'regret' over his support to the Nitish Kumar regime, alleging that the state government has 'surrendered' before criminals. 'Several times I have reiterated that my commitment and love is towards the Prime Minister. Under PM Modi's leadership, the elections (in Bihar) will be fought. After the election results, Nitish Kumar will again take oath as chief minister. Definitely he will be the chief minister,' he said, speaking to reporters in Delhi. Paswan, the MP from Bihar's Hajipur, also accused the Opposition of targeting the Army to attack Prime Minister Narendra Modi over Operation Sindoor. He said the NDA is a 'winning combination' for the elections and reiterated his commitment towards PM Modi. The Union Minister further backed the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar, saying that this process has happened four times earlier with no difference, except that digital technology has been linked now. 'Earlier, one used to go for physical documentation and now online you can submit,' he said. The Union food processing minister pointed out that Aadhaar cards do not have place of birth clarity, adding that people can appeal at three levels if there are any problems. 'Opposition created such noise on this issue. Have they given any proof to show if names have been removed wrongly?' he asked. 'Only the one wrongly registered will be deleted. But at the same time it will be ensured that no one is meted out with injustice. We also need to ensure intruders do not take advantage of our voters,' Paswan said. Paswan said that the SIR process will soon be implemented across the country, and pointed out that after every election, it was the Opposition that complained to the Election Commission about anomalies in voter lists. 'EVMs are fine now, voter lists are an issue for them.' 'Intensive revision is necessary. Some deceased's names are on the list and it is continuing. By chance, it (SIR) is implemented in Bihar. In the coming days, it will be done in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu where elections are due, and eventually across the country.' Responding to RJD MP Manoj Jha's suggestion about sending a fact-finding committee to Bihar to assess the law and order situation, Paswan said, 'I am a Bihari. I need not send a committee to understand the situation in my state. I know the situation and therefore expressed concern.' 'When I raise the issue, they see my revolt. It is not a revolt, but a concern,' he added. The LJP(RV) chief said the Opposition would like the NDA to split as it cannot win on its own strength and can win only by weakening the opposite side. On Operation Sindoor, Paswan accused the Opposition of not sparing even the Army in order to target PM Modi 'Operation Sindoor was carried out by the Army not by a minister. Its success was due to the Army. I give credit to the PM as will power is necessary for giving approval for such a big decision. We kept in mind the sensitivity of the issue. To target Prime Minister Modi, they (Opposition) are putting a question mark on Operation Sindoor. What kind of thinking is this?' he said. The LJP chief said he has a problem with the Opposition having 'faith in every foreigner' but not the government and politicians in India. 'They believe what the prime minister of another country has said. They believe what the neighbouring country has said. But they don't want to believe what our Army and the democratically elected government are saying,' he said. (With inputs from PTI)
The Hindu
3 days ago
- Politics
- The Hindu
Nitish Kumar will be Bihar CM after polls: Chirag Paswan
Union Minister and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan on Monday (July 28, 2025) said Nitish Kumar will take oath as Bihar Chief Minister again after the assembly elections to be held later this year. Mr. Paswan's remarks came just two days after he expressed 'regret' over having to support the Nitish Kumar government, which he alleged has 'surrendered' before criminals. Talking to reporters on the sidelines of an event in New Delhi, the Union Food Processing Minister also accused the Opposition of targeting the Army to attack Prime Minister Narendra Modi over Operation Sindoor. Mr. Paswan, the MP from Hajipur in Bihar, said the NDA is a 'winning combination' for the elections and reiterated his commitment towards Prime Minister Modi. 'Several times I have reiterated that my commitment and love is towards the Prime Minister. Under PM Modi's leadership, the elections (in Bihar) will be fought. After the election results, Nitish Kumar will again take oath as chief minister. Definitely he will be the Chief Minister,' he said. On the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar, Paswan said this process has happened four times earlier with no difference, except that digital technology has been linked now. 'Earlier, one used to go for physical documentation and now online you can submit,' he said. The Union food processing minister pointed out that Aadhaar cards do not have place of birth clarity, adding that people can appeal at three levels if there are any problems. 'Opposition created such noise on this issue. Have they given any proof to show if names have been removed wrongly?' he asked. 'Only the one wrongly registered will be deleted. But at the same time it will be ensured that no one is meted out with injustice. We also need to ensure intruders do not take advantage of our voters,' Mr. Paswan said. He noted that after every election, it was the Opposition that complained to the Election Commission about anomalies in voter lists. 'EVMs are fine now, voter lists are an issue for them.' The Minister said the process will be implemented across the country eventually. 'Intensive revision is necessary. Some deceased's names are on the list and it is continuing. By chance, it (SIR) is implemented in Bihar. In the coming days, it will be done in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu where elections are due, and eventually across the country.' Responding to RJD MP Manoj Jha's suggestion about sending a fact-finding committee to Bihar to assess the law and order situation, Mr. Paswan said, 'I am a Bihari. I need not send a committee to understand the situation in my state. I know the situation and therefore expressed concern.' 'When I raise the issue, they see my revolt. It is not a revolt, but a concern,' he added. The LJP(RV) chief said the Opposition would like the NDA to split as it cannot win on its own strength and can win only by weakening the opposite side. On Operation Sindoor, Mr. Paswan accused the Opposition of not sparing even the Army in order to target Prime Minister Modi. 'Operation Sindoor was carried out by the Army not by a minister. Its success was due to the Army. I give credit to the PM as will power is necessary for giving approval for such a big decision. We kept in mind the sensitivity of the issue. To target Prime Minister Modi, they (Opposition) are putting a question mark on Operation Sindoor. What kind of thinking is this?' he said. The LJP chief said he has a problem with the Opposition having 'faith in every foreigner' but not the government and politicians in India. 'They believe what the prime minister of another country has said. They believe what the neighbouring country has said. But they don't want to believe what our Army and the democratically elected government are saying,' he said. Mr. Paswan also criticised the Opposition for demanding a special session of Parliament to discuss Operation Sindoor and then creating ruckus when it was convened. 'When it was convened, what did they do? They created ruckus and proceedings were adjourned twice. Is this your priority?' he asked. 'Politicising every issue is not a good sign. You raise questions to seek response on the issue, but don't use the platform for political benefit,' the Union minister said.
